Economic forecasting:
"[Economic Forecasting] provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. It focuses first on a large range of theories as well as empirical techniques: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial foreca...
Gespeichert in:
| Späterer Titel: | Carnot, Nicolas Economic forecasting and policy |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York
Palgrave Macmillan
2005
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | "[Economic Forecasting] provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. It focuses first on a large range of theories as well as empirical techniques: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. The book then addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts, including accuracy and communication challenges, as well as their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided." -- Book cover. |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XIX, 315 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 1403936536 1403936544 9781403936530 9781403936547 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Economic forecasting |c Nicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot |
| 250 | |a 1. publ. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a New York |b Palgrave Macmillan |c 2005 | |
| 300 | |a XIX, 315 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
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| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804134681844645888 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES VIII LIST OF TABLES IX LIST OF BOXES X FOREWORD
BY JEAN-PHILIPPE COTIS XI ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS XII ACRONYMS XIII
INTRODUCTION XVII 1 FIRST PRINCIPLES 1 1.1 WHAT TO FORECAST? 1 1.2 WHY
FORECAST? 6 1.3 HOW TO FORECAST 9 2 THE DATA 15 2.1 THE NATIONAL
ACCOUNTS FRAMEWORK 16 2.2 QUARTERLY NATIONAL ACCOUNTING 28 2.3 TECHNICAL
HURDLES 29 2.4 OPEN QUESTIONS AND LIMITATIONS 41 3 INCOMING NEWS AND
NEAR-TERM FORECASTING 51 3.1 MONITORING THE UPS AND DOWNS 51 3.2
COLLECTING ECONOMIC INFORMATION 53 3.3 BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS 58
3.4 MAKING SENSE OF THE DATA 64 3.5 BRIDGE MODELS 79 3.6 FINAL HEALTH
WARNING 83 4 TIME SERIES METHODS 85 4.1 EMPIRICAL EXTRAPOLATION 85 4.2
ARIMA MODELS 87 4.3 DECOMPOSITION INTO TREND AND CYCLE 90 4.4 VAR MODELS
96 5 MODELLING BEHAVIOUR 103 5.1 ENTERPRISE INVESTMENT 103 5.2 HOUSEHOLD
SPENDING 112 5.3 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS 118 5.4 EMPLOYMENT 121 5.5 PRICES
AND WAGES 125 VI CONTENTS 6 MACROECONOMIC MODELS 133 6.1 WHAT IS A
MACROECONOMIC MODEL? 133 6.2 FORECASTING WITH A MODEL 141 6.3 BUILDING
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS 148 6.4 HOW FAR CAN MODELS GO? 151 7 MEDIUM- AND
LONG-RUN PROJECTIONS 155 7.1 THE MEDIUM RUN 156 7.2 THE LONG RUN 166 8
FINANCIAL AND COMMODITY MARKETS 176 8.1 DEALING WITH VOLATILITY 176 8.2
INTEREST RATES 177 8.3 BOND, STOCK AND REAL ESTATE PRICES 186 8.4
EXCHANGE RATES 190 8.5 COMMODITY PRICES 194 8.6 COUNTRY-RISK ANALYSIS
200 9 BUDGET FORECASTS 207 9.1 A MORE OR LESS DETAILED APPROACH 207 9.2
FORECASTING BUDGET FLOWS OVER THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RUN 208 9.3
FORECASTING LONG-RUN FISCAL TRENDS 213 9.4 PUTTING TOGETHER A BUDGET
SCENARIO 214 9.5 TOP-DOWN AND BOTTOM-UP APPROACHES 216 9.6 UNCERTAINTIES
219 9.7 AN ANALYTICAL VIEW OF THE BUDGET 222 10 SECTORAL FORECASTING 229
10.1 MICROECONOMIC FORECASTS 230 10.2 INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS 232 11
ACCURACY 235 11.1 CONCEPTUAL ISSUES 235 11.2 MEASURING ACCURACY IN
PRACTICE 237 11.3 ANALYSING ERRORS 240 11.4 FORECASTERS TRACK RECORD 243
11.5 WHAT CAUSES THE ERRORS? 245 11.6 CAN AND SHOULD ACCURACY BE
IMPROVED? 248 12 USING THE FORECASTS 251 12.1 ECONOMIC FORECASTS VIRTUES
AND LIMITATIONS 251 12.2 FORECASTS AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY 256 12.3
PRIVATE SECTOR USES 262 13 COMMUNICATION CHALLENGES 265 13.1 EXPLAINING
THE TECHNICALITIES 265 13.2 TRANSPARENCY 270 13.3 SCIENCE OR POLITICS?
271 CONTENTS VII 14 A TOUR OF THE FORECASTING INSTITUTIONS 275 14.1
TYPES OF FORECASTERS 275 14.2 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS 280 14.3
FORECASTING BODIES IN SELECTED COUNTRIES 284 EPILOGUE 291 BIBLIOGRAPHY
292 INDEX 303
|
| adam_txt |
CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES VIII LIST OF TABLES IX LIST OF BOXES X FOREWORD
BY JEAN-PHILIPPE COTIS XI ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS XII ACRONYMS XIII
INTRODUCTION XVII 1 FIRST PRINCIPLES 1 1.1 WHAT TO FORECAST? 1 1.2 WHY
FORECAST? 6 1.3 HOW TO FORECAST 9 2 THE DATA 15 2.1 THE NATIONAL
ACCOUNTS FRAMEWORK 16 2.2 QUARTERLY NATIONAL ACCOUNTING 28 2.3 TECHNICAL
HURDLES 29 2.4 OPEN QUESTIONS AND LIMITATIONS 41 3 INCOMING NEWS AND
NEAR-TERM FORECASTING 51 3.1 MONITORING THE UPS AND DOWNS 51 3.2
COLLECTING ECONOMIC INFORMATION 53 3.3 BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS 58
3.4 MAKING SENSE OF THE DATA 64 3.5 BRIDGE MODELS 79 3.6 FINAL HEALTH
WARNING 83 4 TIME SERIES METHODS 85 4.1 EMPIRICAL EXTRAPOLATION 85 4.2
ARIMA MODELS 87 4.3 DECOMPOSITION INTO TREND AND CYCLE 90 4.4 VAR MODELS
96 5 MODELLING BEHAVIOUR 103 5.1 ENTERPRISE INVESTMENT 103 5.2 HOUSEHOLD
SPENDING 112 5.3 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS 118 5.4 EMPLOYMENT 121 5.5 PRICES
AND WAGES 125 VI CONTENTS 6 MACROECONOMIC MODELS 133 6.1 WHAT IS A
MACROECONOMIC MODEL? 133 6.2 FORECASTING WITH A MODEL 141 6.3 BUILDING
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS 148 6.4 HOW FAR CAN MODELS GO? 151 7 MEDIUM- AND
LONG-RUN PROJECTIONS 155 7.1 THE MEDIUM RUN 156 7.2 THE LONG RUN 166 8
FINANCIAL AND COMMODITY MARKETS 176 8.1 DEALING WITH VOLATILITY 176 8.2
INTEREST RATES 177 8.3 BOND, STOCK AND REAL ESTATE PRICES 186 8.4
EXCHANGE RATES 190 8.5 COMMODITY PRICES 194 8.6 COUNTRY-RISK ANALYSIS
200 9 BUDGET FORECASTS 207 9.1 A MORE OR LESS DETAILED APPROACH 207 9.2
FORECASTING BUDGET FLOWS OVER THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RUN 208 9.3
FORECASTING LONG-RUN FISCAL TRENDS 213 9.4 PUTTING TOGETHER A BUDGET
SCENARIO 214 9.5 TOP-DOWN AND BOTTOM-UP APPROACHES 216 9.6 UNCERTAINTIES
219 9.7 AN ANALYTICAL VIEW OF THE BUDGET 222 10 SECTORAL FORECASTING 229
10.1 MICROECONOMIC FORECASTS 230 10.2 INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS 232 11
ACCURACY 235 11.1 CONCEPTUAL ISSUES 235 11.2 MEASURING ACCURACY IN
PRACTICE 237 11.3 ANALYSING ERRORS 240 11.4 FORECASTERS'TRACK RECORD 243
11.5 WHAT CAUSES THE ERRORS? 245 11.6 CAN AND SHOULD ACCURACY BE
IMPROVED? 248 12 USING THE FORECASTS 251 12.1 ECONOMIC FORECASTS'VIRTUES
AND LIMITATIONS 251 12.2 FORECASTS AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY 256 12.3
PRIVATE SECTOR USES 262 13 COMMUNICATION CHALLENGES 265 13.1 EXPLAINING
THE TECHNICALITIES 265 13.2 TRANSPARENCY 270 13.3 SCIENCE OR POLITICS?
271 CONTENTS VII 14 A TOUR OF THE FORECASTING INSTITUTIONS 275 14.1
TYPES OF FORECASTERS 275 14.2 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS 280 14.3
FORECASTING BODIES IN SELECTED COUNTRIES 284 EPILOGUE 291 BIBLIOGRAPHY
292 INDEX 303 |
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| id | DE-604.BV021236706 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T13:29:55Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:28:29Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1403936536 1403936544 9781403936530 9781403936547 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2004063677 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-014279458 |
| oclc_num | 57211326 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-1047 DE-N2 DE-573 DE-12 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-1047 DE-N2 DE-573 DE-12 DE-188 |
| physical | XIX, 315 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2005 |
| publishDateSearch | 2005 |
| publishDateSort | 2005 |
| publisher | Palgrave Macmillan |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Carnot, Nicolas 1973- Verfasser (DE-588)132061848 aut Economic forecasting Nicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot 1. publ. New York Palgrave Macmillan 2005 XIX, 315 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index "[Economic Forecasting] provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. It focuses first on a large range of theories as well as empirical techniques: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. The book then addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts, including accuracy and communication challenges, as well as their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided." -- Book cover. Prévision économique Economic forecasting Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-188 Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 s Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 s Koen, Vincent 1960- Verfasser (DE-588)132061910 aut Tissot, Bruno 1966- Verfasser (DE-588)132061953 aut Später u.d.T. Carnot, Nicolas Economic forecasting and policy (DE-604)BV039540550 SWB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014279458&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Carnot, Nicolas 1973- Koen, Vincent 1960- Tissot, Bruno 1966- Economic forecasting Prévision économique Economic forecasting Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4358095-6 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)4066399-1 |
| title | Economic forecasting |
| title_auth | Economic forecasting |
| title_exact_search | Economic forecasting |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Economic forecasting |
| title_full | Economic forecasting Nicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot |
| title_fullStr | Economic forecasting Nicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic forecasting Nicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot |
| title_new | Carnot, Nicolas Economic forecasting and policy |
| title_short | Economic forecasting |
| title_sort | economic forecasting |
| topic | Prévision économique Economic forecasting Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Prévision économique Economic forecasting Prognoseverfahren Prognose Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaft |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014279458&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT carnotnicolas economicforecasting AT koenvincent economicforecasting AT tissotbruno economicforecasting |