Environmental and health risk assessment and management: principles and practices
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Dordrecht
Springer
2006
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Environmental pollution
9 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XX, 478 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 1402037759 9781402037757 1402037767 9781402037764 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Environmental and health risk assessment and management |b principles and practices |c by Paolo F. Ricci |
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| 490 | 1 | |a Environmental pollution |v 9 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Médecine de l'environnement | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risques pour la santé - Évaluation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Substances dangereuses - Aspect sanitaire | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Substances dangereuses - Évaluation du risque | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Cost-Benefit Analysis |x statistics & numerical data | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Environmental Health | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Environmental health | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Hazardous Substances | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Hazardous substances |x Health aspects | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Hazardous substances |x Risk assessment | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Health risk assessment | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risk Assessment |x statistics & numerical data | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804134675051970560 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
Preface xvii
CHAPTER 1. LEGAL PRINCIPLES, UNCERTAINTY, AND VARIABILITY IN RISK
ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 1
1.1. INTRODUCTION 3
1.1.1. Precautionary Acts as an Answer to the Principal
Question 4
1.2. THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE ._ 5
1.3. VARIANTS OF THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE: US
law 7
1.3.1. Implications of Different Approaches to Precaution 10
1.3.2. De Minimis Risk, Significant Risk, and other Principles of
Precaution 13
1.3.3. Dissemination of Information about Risk Assessment and
Management 15
1.4. DIFFICULTIES WITH PRINCIPLES OF PRECAUTION .16
1.5. ELEMENTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 18
1.6. UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY ...20
1.7. SCIENCE AND LAW: From scientific evidence to causation .__ 23
1.7.1. Scientific Evidence: What can be legally admissible? 25
1.7.2. Scientific Evidence in Legal Causation 26
1.8. PROBABILITIES TO EXPRESS UNCERTAINTY AND
VARIABILITY .30
1.8.1. Three Views about Probability 32
1.9. PRACTICAL ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY 34
1.9.1. Bayesian Analysis 35
vi Environmental and Health Risk Assessment and Management
1.10. RISK ASSESSMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT 36
1.11. CONCLUSION..... ..37
CHAPTER 2. SUSTAINABILITY AND MAKING DECISIONS UNDER
UNCERTAINTY 39
2.1. SUSTAINABILITY AND RISK MANAGEMENT 41
2.1.1. Indicators and Indices 43
2.2. VERIFICATION, VALIDATION, AND CONFIRMATION ...46
2.3. LEGAL BALANCING OF RISKS, ECONOMIC COSTS, AND
BENEFITS 48
2.4. CRITERIA FOR MAKING CHOICES IN RISK MANAGEMENT 52
2.5. A PARADIGM FOR DECISION MAKING: The single decision maker 57
2.6. PRACTICAL PROBABILISTIC REASONING: An elaboration .58
2.6.1. Comment.. 65
2.7. SCALES OF MEASUREMENT AND IMPLICATIONS FOR
RISK ANALYSIS .65
2.8 CONCLUSION.. _ .68
QUESTIONS 68
CHAPTER 3. RISK, COST, AND BENEFIT ANALYSIS (RCBA) IN RISK
ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT _ _ 71
3.1. INTRODUCTION 72
3.2. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS, CBA 75
3.2.1. Discussion 77
3.2.2. Discounting: Social rate of discount and the interest rate. 81
3.2.3. Variability in CBA 82
3.2.4. Supply and Demand Analysis 84
3.2.5. Modeling Supply and Demand Statistically 91
3.3. EVALUATING NON MARKET PRICED GOODS AND SERVICES 94
3.3.1. Comment 98
3.4. DEATH OR MORBIDITY AVERTED IN RCBA..... 99
Table of Contents vii
3.5. INTERGENERATIONAL EQUITY .101
3.6. SUBSIDIES 102
3.7. TAXATION 103
3.8. BUBBLES, TRADEABLE PERMITS, AND BANKING 105
3.9. CONCLUSION..... 108
QUESTIONS 110
CHAPTER 4. EXPOSURE RESPONSE MODELS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT .113
4.1. INTRODUCTION 115
4.1.1. Discussion 119
4.1.2. Some Exposure Response Models and Results for Air
Pollution.. 120
4.1.3. The APHEA (Air Pollution and Health, a
European Approach) 123
4.2. THE MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATOR (MLE) 124
4.2.1. Likelihood Ratio 125
4.3. BASIC STATISTICAL FORMULAE (Also See Chapterl 1) 126
4.4. MODELING EMPIRICAL CAUSAL RELATIONS BETWEEN
EXPOSURE AND RESPONSE 128
4.5. LOGISTIC REGRESSION: The Dependent Variable is Binary 132
4.5.1. Discussion 135
4.6. POISSON REGRESSION: The Dependent Variable Measures
Counts of Rare Events 137
4.7. SURVIVAL ANALYSIS: Successes and Failures Over Time 141
4.7.1. Survival Analysis 141
4.7.2. Discussion of Hazard Functions and Distribution Functions 145
4.7.3. Comment ... 148
4.8. COX PROPORTIONAL (RELATIVE RISK) HAZARDS MODEL 149
4.9. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 151
viii Environmental and Health Risk Assessment and Management
4.9.1. Time Domain Analysis of Time Series, ARIMA 152
4.9.2. The Moving Average, MA, Process 154
4.9.3. The Auto Regressive, AR, Process _. 154
4.9.4. Simple ARMA Process .154
4.9.5. Discussion 158
4.9.6. Frequency Domain Analysis 159
4.10. MODEL SELECTION: Basic Considerations 161
4.10.1. Akaike s Information Criterion, A1C 162
4.10.2. Cross Validation 164
4.10.3. Direct or Reverse Regression? ...164
4.10.4. Data Mining 165
4.11. CONCLUSION. _ _ ..167
QUESTIONS 168
CHAPTER 5. PROBABILISTIC DOSE RESPONSE MODELS AND
CONCEPTS OF TOXICOLOGY .... 171
5.1. INTRODUCTION.. 173
5.1.1. Cancer Risk Assessment 175
5.1.2. Cancer Slope Factors (CSF), Reference Doses (RfD), and
Concentrations (RfC) 176
5.2. RISK ASSESSMENT THROUGH DOSE RESPONSE MODELING 178
5.2.1. Toxicological Dose Response Models 182
5.3. MULTISTAGE (MS) DOSE RESPONSE MODELS: Focus on Cancer 183
5.3.1. A Regulatory Method 184
5.3.2. Discussion 187
5.3.3. Comment .... 187
5.4. MOOLGAVKAR, VENZON AND KNUDSON (MVK) CANCER
MODEL 189
5.5. OTHER DOSE RESPONSE MODELS... 190
Table of Contents ix
5.5.1. The Weibull Model 190
5.5.2. Hartley and Sielken Model 191
5.6. BENCHMARK DOSE AND CONCENTRATION (BMD, BMC) 192
5.6.1. Comment _ 193
5.6.2. Benchmark Response, BMR 198
5.6.3. Effective Dose 0.01, ED01 198
5.7. ANIMAL STUDIES IN RISK ASSESSMENT: NO OBSERVED
ADVERSE EFFECT LEVELS, HORMESIS, AND OTHER CONCEPTS 201
5.7.1. Lowest Observed Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL), and the No
Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL) 202
5.7.2. Safety and Uncertainty Factors in Risk
Assessment _ 203
5.8 ALLOMETRIC FORMULAE: Converting Dose from Animals to
Humans 205
5.8.1. Hormesis 209
5.9. SUMMARY OF TOXICOLOGY IN RISK ASSESSMENT AND
MANAGEMENT .211
5.9.1. Toxicological Concepts 215
5.9.2. Modeling Changes in Concentrations 216
5.9.3. Discussion 218
5.9.4. Molecular Studies in Epidemiology 219
5.10. MIXTURES OF CHEMICALS 220
5.10.1. Toxicity Equivalency Factor Approach (US EPA, 2004) ....222
5.11. CONCLUSION 222
QUESTIONS _. 223
CHAPTER 6. MONTE CARLO, BOOTSTRAPS AND OTHER METHODS TO
QUANTIFY OR PROPAGATE VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY 227
6.1. INTRODUCTION 228
6.2. COMBINATIONS OF DISTRIBUTIONS: Superimposition 231
x Environmental and Health Risk Assessment and Management
6.3. MONTE CARLO METHODS: Combining Variability through
Probabilistic Simulations 234
6.4. BOOTSTRAP METHODS ..240
6.5. MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO, MCMC .243
6.6. MISSING DATA 246
6.6.1. Limit of Detection 249
6.7. INTERVALS. 251
6.7.1. Discussion _ 254
6.8. ENTROPY OF INFORMATION 255
6.9. CONCLUSION 256
QUESTIONS ..256
CHAPTER 7. CAUSAL MODELS: INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS, BAYESIAN
NETWORKS, CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREES .257
7.1. INTRODUCTION 258
7.2. INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS 259
7.2.1. Probabilistic Influence Diagrams .262
7.3. BAYESIAN NETWORKS 264
7.3.1. Discussion 265
7.4. CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREES (CART) ...270
7.4.1. Discussion 272
7.5. CONCLUSION 273
QUESTIONS 274
CHAPTER 8. META ANALYSIS, POOLING SAMPLE DATA, AND
STATISTICAL DECISION RULES 277
8.1. INTRODUCTION.. 278
8.2 POOLING SEVERAL SAMPLES 279
8.3 META ANALYSIS ..280
8.3.1 Discussion 284
Table of Contents xi
8.4. BINOMIAL POPULATIONS 286
8.4.1. Sensitivity and Specificity of the Test 290
8.5. COMPARISON OF DISTRIBUTIONS 290
8.5.1. Two Samples, Non parametric Kolmogorov Smirnov (K S)
Test .291
8.6. STATISTICAL DECISION MAKING ...293
8.6.1. Difference of Two Population Means 296
8.6.2. Decision Rules for the Population Variance _ ..297
8.6.3. Decision Rules for Two Equal Population Variances 298
8.6.4. Decision Rules for the Equality of the Variances of More
than Two Populations 300
8.6.4.1 Bartlett s Test. ..300
8.7 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE (ANOVA): Independent Samples for K
Normally Distributed Populations 301
8.8 KRUSKAL WALL1S TEST (K W): Non parametric Testing of k
Independent Samples 305
8.8.1. Discussion 306
8.9. K DEPENDENT SAMPLES .307
8.9.1. Cochran s Test (Q) for K related Samples with Binomial
Responses ....307
8.9.2. Friedman s T test (Tp) for Ordinal or Continuous
Observations 308
8.10. CONCLUSION 310
QUESTIONS 310
CHAPTER 9. CONTINGENCY TABLES IN RISK ASSESSMENT AND
MANAGEMENT 313
9.1. INTRODUCTION ... 314
9.2. THE O// SQUARE (X1) TEST 317
9.2.1. Discussion _ 323
9.3. MEASURING AGREEMENT OR CONFORMANCE 324
xii Environmental and Health Risk Assessment and Management
9.3.1. Kendall s Coefficients of Concordance ._ 326
9.3.1.1. Kendall s T 326
9.3.2. Kendall s W 328
9.4. SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY 329
9.5. CONCLUSION 331
QUESTIONS 331
CHAPTER 10. STATISTICAL ASSOCIATIONS AND CAUSATION FOR RISK
ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT .333
10.1. INTRODUCTION 335
10.2. QUALITATIVE ASPECTS OF CAUSAL ASSOCIATIONS... 338
10.2.1. Building a Causal Association 339
10.2.2. Hill s Criteria ...340
10.3. PEARSON S COEFFICIENT OF CORRELATION _ 342
10.4. ADDITIONAL MEASURES OF ASSOCIATION 345
10.4.1. Contingency Coefficient (p.. 345
10.4.2. Spearman s Coefficient of Correlation ..346
10.5. CONSISTENCY OF SCIENTIFIC STUDIES 348
10.5.1. Internal Consistency... ..348
10.5.2. Generality..... 349
10.6. FUNDAMENTAL CAUSAL DIAGRAM, FCD, IN MODELING
CAUSATION 350
10.6.1 Computational Aspects 352
10.6.2. Information and Causation: Identifying Potential
Hazards 358
10.6.3. Discussion 360
10.6.4. Testing Causation between Measured Variables in a Risk
Model 360
10.6.5. Discussion 361
10.7. CONCLUSION 365
Table of Contents xiii
QUESTIONS 366
CHAPTER 11. RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORKS, CALCULATIONS OF
RISK AND TOXICOLOGICAL DOSES... .367
11.1. INTRODUCTION 368
11.2. THE RISK BASED CORRECTIVE ACTION, RBCA,
FRAMEWORK 369
11.2.1. The Risk Based Corrective Action, RBCA, Framework 369
11.2.2 Risk Based Screening Level, RBSL 370
11.3. STATE OF CALIFORNIA PRELIMINARY EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT,
PEA, FRAMEWORK 372
11.4. US EPA RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK 373
11.4.1. Outliers 375
11.5. SELECTED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS. 376
11.5.1. Binomial Distribution _ 377
11.5.2. Geometric Distribution 378
11.5.3. Hypergeometric Distribution 379
11.5.4. Negative Binomial Distribution (for integer values) 380
11.5.5. Poisson Distribution 381
11.5.6. The Normal Distribution 383
11.5.7. Gamma, T, Distribution 386
11.5.8. Exponential Distribution 387
11.5.9. OiZ Square Distribution 387
11.5.10 Weibull Distribution 388
11.5.11. Beta Distribution 389
11.5.12. Log Normal Distribution... 391
11.6. THE POISSON PROCESS IN RISK ASSESSMENT 394
11.6.1. The Poisson Process 395
11.7. PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT (PRA) 397
xiv Environmental and Health Risk Assessment and Management
11.7.1. Fault Trees and Event Trees .....400
11.8. RISK CALCULATIONS IN ACCIDENT ANALYSIS 404
11.9. SIMPLE DYNAMIC MODEL OF INFECTION..... 406
11.10. TOX1COLOGICAL MODELING FOR RISK ASSESSMENT:
Key Organs, Physico Chemical Reactions, Compartments and PB PK Models...407
11.10.1. The Liver _ 407
11.10.2. The Kidneys 408
11.10.3. Compartmental Models _ .....409
11.10.4. Physiologically Based Pharmaco Kinetic Models (PB PK).....412
11.11. CONCLUSION .414
QUESTIONS. 415
CHAPTER 12. PRACTICAL ANALYSIS OF DECISIONS FOR RISK
MANAGEMENT 417
12.1. INTRODUCTION... 419
12.2. REPRESENTING RISKY CHOICES .421
12.2.1. Discussion .....422
12.3. THE PRACTICE OF MAKING RISKY DECISIONS... .423
12.3.1 Single Attribute Utility Theory .425
12.3.2. Value of Information Criteria 429
12.3.2.1. Expected Values of Information 429
12.4. FOUNDATIONS OF UTILITY THEORY .433
12.4.1. Multi Attribute Utility .....435
12.4.2. Discussion _ 438
12.5. DECISION TREES _____ 439
12.6. GAME THEORY 443
12.7. CONCLUSION... _ 445
QUESTIONS _____ 445
Table of Contents xv
REFERENCES 447
GLOSSARY 465
LIST OF SYMBOLS 471
INDEX 473
|
| adam_txt |
CONTENTS
Preface xvii
CHAPTER 1. LEGAL PRINCIPLES, UNCERTAINTY, AND VARIABILITY IN RISK
ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 1
1.1. INTRODUCTION 3
1.1.1. Precautionary Acts as an Answer to the Principal
Question 4
1.2. THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE ._ 5
1.3. VARIANTS OF THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE: US
law 7
1.3.1. Implications of Different Approaches to Precaution 10
1.3.2. De Minimis Risk, Significant Risk, and other Principles of
Precaution 13
1.3.3. Dissemination of Information about Risk Assessment and
Management 15
1.4. DIFFICULTIES WITH PRINCIPLES OF PRECAUTION .16
1.5. ELEMENTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 18
1.6. UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY .20
1.7. SCIENCE AND LAW: From scientific evidence to causation ._ 23
1.7.1. Scientific Evidence: What can be legally admissible? 25
1.7.2. Scientific Evidence in Legal Causation 26
1.8. PROBABILITIES TO EXPRESS UNCERTAINTY AND
VARIABILITY .30
1.8.1. Three Views about Probability 32
1.9. PRACTICAL ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY 34
1.9.1. Bayesian Analysis 35
vi Environmental and Health Risk Assessment and Management
1.10. RISK ASSESSMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT 36
1.11. CONCLUSION. .37
CHAPTER 2. SUSTAINABILITY AND MAKING DECISIONS UNDER
UNCERTAINTY 39
2.1. SUSTAINABILITY AND RISK MANAGEMENT 41
2.1.1. Indicators and Indices 43
2.2. VERIFICATION, VALIDATION, AND CONFIRMATION .46
2.3. LEGAL BALANCING OF RISKS, ECONOMIC COSTS, AND
BENEFITS 48
2.4. CRITERIA FOR MAKING CHOICES IN RISK MANAGEMENT 52
2.5. A PARADIGM FOR DECISION MAKING: The single decision maker 57
2.6. PRACTICAL PROBABILISTIC REASONING: An elaboration .58
2.6.1. Comment. 65
2.7. SCALES OF MEASUREMENT AND IMPLICATIONS FOR
RISK ANALYSIS .65
2.8 CONCLUSION. _ .68
QUESTIONS 68
CHAPTER 3. RISK, COST, AND BENEFIT ANALYSIS (RCBA) IN RISK
ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT _ _ 71
3.1. INTRODUCTION 72
3.2. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS, CBA 75
3.2.1. Discussion 77
3.2.2. Discounting: Social rate of discount and the interest rate. 81
3.2.3. Variability in CBA 82
3.2.4. Supply and Demand Analysis 84
3.2.5. Modeling Supply and Demand Statistically 91
3.3. EVALUATING NON MARKET PRICED GOODS AND SERVICES 94
3.3.1. Comment 98
3.4. DEATH OR MORBIDITY AVERTED IN RCBA. 99
Table of Contents vii
3.5. INTERGENERATIONAL EQUITY .101
3.6. SUBSIDIES 102
3.7. TAXATION 103
3.8. BUBBLES, TRADEABLE PERMITS, AND BANKING 105
3.9. CONCLUSION. 108
QUESTIONS 110
CHAPTER 4. EXPOSURE RESPONSE MODELS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT .113
4.1. INTRODUCTION 115
4.1.1. Discussion 119
4.1.2. Some Exposure Response Models and Results for Air
Pollution. 120
4.1.3. The APHEA (Air Pollution and Health, a
European Approach) 123
4.2. THE MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATOR (MLE) 124
4.2.1. Likelihood Ratio 125
4.3. BASIC STATISTICAL FORMULAE (Also See Chapterl 1) 126
4.4. MODELING EMPIRICAL CAUSAL RELATIONS BETWEEN
EXPOSURE AND RESPONSE 128
4.5. LOGISTIC REGRESSION: The Dependent Variable is Binary 132
4.5.1. Discussion 135
4.6. POISSON REGRESSION: The Dependent Variable Measures
Counts of Rare Events 137
4.7. SURVIVAL ANALYSIS: Successes and Failures Over Time 141
4.7.1. Survival Analysis 141
4.7.2. Discussion of Hazard Functions and Distribution Functions 145
4.7.3. Comment . 148
4.8. COX PROPORTIONAL (RELATIVE RISK) HAZARDS MODEL 149
4.9. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 151
viii Environmental and Health Risk Assessment and Management
4.9.1. Time Domain Analysis of Time Series, ARIMA 152
4.9.2. The Moving Average, MA, Process 154
4.9.3. The Auto Regressive, AR, Process _. 154
4.9.4. Simple ARMA Process .154
4.9.5. Discussion 158
4.9.6. Frequency Domain Analysis 159
4.10. MODEL SELECTION: Basic Considerations 161
4.10.1. Akaike's Information Criterion, A1C 162
4.10.2. Cross Validation 164
4.10.3. Direct or Reverse Regression? .164
4.10.4. Data Mining 165
4.11. CONCLUSION. _ _ .167
QUESTIONS 168
CHAPTER 5. PROBABILISTIC DOSE RESPONSE MODELS AND
CONCEPTS OF TOXICOLOGY . 171
5.1. INTRODUCTION. 173
5.1.1. Cancer Risk Assessment 175
5.1.2. Cancer Slope Factors (CSF), Reference Doses (RfD), and
Concentrations (RfC) 176
5.2. RISK ASSESSMENT THROUGH DOSE RESPONSE MODELING 178
5.2.1. Toxicological Dose Response Models 182
5.3. MULTISTAGE (MS) DOSE RESPONSE MODELS: Focus on Cancer 183
5.3.1. A Regulatory Method 184
5.3.2. Discussion 187
5.3.3. Comment . 187
5.4. MOOLGAVKAR, VENZON AND KNUDSON (MVK) CANCER
MODEL 189
5.5. OTHER DOSE RESPONSE MODELS. 190
Table of Contents ix
5.5.1. The Weibull Model 190
5.5.2. Hartley and Sielken Model 191
5.6. BENCHMARK DOSE AND CONCENTRATION (BMD, BMC) 192
5.6.1. Comment _ 193
5.6.2. Benchmark Response, BMR 198
5.6.3. Effective Dose 0.01, ED01 198
5.7. ANIMAL STUDIES IN RISK ASSESSMENT: NO OBSERVED
ADVERSE EFFECT LEVELS, HORMESIS, AND OTHER CONCEPTS 201
5.7.1. Lowest Observed Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL), and the No
Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL) 202
5.7.2. Safety and Uncertainty Factors in Risk
Assessment _ 203
5.8 ALLOMETRIC FORMULAE: Converting Dose from Animals to
Humans 205
5.8.1. Hormesis 209
5.9. SUMMARY OF TOXICOLOGY IN RISK ASSESSMENT AND
MANAGEMENT .211
5.9.1. Toxicological Concepts 215
5.9.2. Modeling Changes in Concentrations 216
5.9.3. Discussion 218
5.9.4. Molecular Studies in Epidemiology 219
5.10. MIXTURES OF CHEMICALS 220
5.10.1. Toxicity Equivalency Factor Approach (US EPA, 2004) .222
5.11. CONCLUSION 222
QUESTIONS _. 223
CHAPTER 6. MONTE CARLO, BOOTSTRAPS AND OTHER METHODS TO
QUANTIFY OR PROPAGATE VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY 227
6.1. INTRODUCTION 228
6.2. COMBINATIONS OF DISTRIBUTIONS: Superimposition 231
x Environmental and Health Risk Assessment and Management
6.3. MONTE CARLO METHODS: Combining Variability through
Probabilistic Simulations 234
6.4. BOOTSTRAP METHODS .240
6.5. MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO, MCMC .243
6.6. MISSING DATA 246
6.6.1. Limit of Detection 249
6.7. INTERVALS. 251
6.7.1. Discussion _ 254
6.8. ENTROPY OF INFORMATION 255
6.9. CONCLUSION 256
QUESTIONS .256
CHAPTER 7. CAUSAL MODELS: INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS, BAYESIAN
NETWORKS, CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREES .257
7.1. INTRODUCTION 258
7.2. INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS 259
7.2.1. Probabilistic Influence Diagrams .262
7.3. BAYESIAN NETWORKS 264
7.3.1. Discussion 265
7.4. CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREES (CART) .270
7.4.1. Discussion 272
7.5. CONCLUSION 273
QUESTIONS 274
CHAPTER 8. META ANALYSIS, POOLING SAMPLE DATA, AND
STATISTICAL DECISION RULES 277
8.1. INTRODUCTION. 278
8.2 POOLING SEVERAL SAMPLES 279
8.3 META ANALYSIS .280
8.3.1 Discussion 284
Table of Contents xi
8.4. BINOMIAL POPULATIONS 286
8.4.1. Sensitivity and Specificity of the Test 290
8.5. COMPARISON OF DISTRIBUTIONS 290
8.5.1. Two Samples, Non parametric Kolmogorov Smirnov (K S)
Test .291
8.6. STATISTICAL DECISION MAKING .293
8.6.1. Difference of Two Population Means 296
8.6.2. Decision Rules for the Population Variance _ .297
8.6.3. Decision Rules for Two Equal Population Variances 298
8.6.4. Decision Rules for the Equality of the Variances of More
than Two Populations 300
8.6.4.1 Bartlett's Test. .300
8.7 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE (ANOVA): Independent Samples for K
Normally Distributed Populations 301
8.8 KRUSKAL WALL1S TEST (K W): Non parametric Testing of k
Independent Samples 305
8.8.1. Discussion 306
8.9. K DEPENDENT SAMPLES .307
8.9.1. Cochran's Test (Q) for K related Samples with Binomial
Responses .307
8.9.2. Friedman's T test (Tp) for Ordinal or Continuous
Observations 308
8.10. CONCLUSION 310
QUESTIONS 310
CHAPTER 9. CONTINGENCY TABLES IN RISK ASSESSMENT AND
MANAGEMENT 313
9.1. INTRODUCTION . 314
9.2. THE O// SQUARE (X1) TEST 317
9.2.1. Discussion _ 323
9.3. MEASURING AGREEMENT OR CONFORMANCE 324
xii Environmental and Health Risk Assessment and Management
9.3.1. Kendall's Coefficients of Concordance ._ 326
9.3.1.1. Kendall's T 326
9.3.2. Kendall's W 328
9.4. SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY 329
9.5. CONCLUSION 331
QUESTIONS 331
CHAPTER 10. STATISTICAL ASSOCIATIONS AND CAUSATION FOR RISK
ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT .333
10.1. INTRODUCTION 335
10.2. QUALITATIVE ASPECTS OF CAUSAL ASSOCIATIONS. 338
10.2.1. Building a Causal Association 339
10.2.2. Hill's Criteria .340
10.3. PEARSON'S COEFFICIENT OF CORRELATION _ 342
10.4. ADDITIONAL MEASURES OF ASSOCIATION 345
10.4.1. Contingency Coefficient (p. 345
10.4.2. Spearman's Coefficient of Correlation .346
10.5. CONSISTENCY OF SCIENTIFIC STUDIES 348
10.5.1. Internal Consistency. .348
10.5.2. Generality. 349
10.6. FUNDAMENTAL CAUSAL DIAGRAM, FCD, IN MODELING
CAUSATION 350
10.6.1 Computational Aspects 352
10.6.2. Information and Causation: Identifying Potential
Hazards 358
10.6.3. Discussion 360
10.6.4. Testing Causation between Measured Variables in a Risk
Model 360
10.6.5. Discussion 361
10.7. CONCLUSION 365
Table of Contents xiii
QUESTIONS 366
CHAPTER 11. RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORKS, CALCULATIONS OF
RISK AND TOXICOLOGICAL DOSES. .367
11.1. INTRODUCTION 368
11.2. THE RISK BASED CORRECTIVE ACTION, RBCA,
FRAMEWORK 369
11.2.1. The Risk Based Corrective Action, RBCA, Framework 369
11.2.2 Risk Based Screening Level, RBSL 370
11.3. STATE OF CALIFORNIA PRELIMINARY EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT,
PEA, FRAMEWORK 372
11.4. US EPA RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK 373
11.4.1. Outliers 375
11.5. SELECTED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS. 376
11.5.1. Binomial Distribution _ 377
11.5.2. Geometric Distribution 378
11.5.3. Hypergeometric Distribution 379
11.5.4. Negative Binomial Distribution (for integer values) 380
11.5.5. Poisson Distribution 381
11.5.6. The Normal Distribution 383
11.5.7. Gamma, T, Distribution 386
11.5.8. Exponential Distribution 387
11.5.9. OiZ Square Distribution 387
11.5.10 Weibull Distribution 388
11.5.11. Beta Distribution 389
11.5.12. Log Normal Distribution. 391
11.6. THE POISSON PROCESS IN RISK ASSESSMENT 394
11.6.1. The Poisson Process 395
11.7. PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT (PRA) 397
xiv Environmental and Health Risk Assessment and Management
11.7.1. Fault Trees and Event Trees .400
11.8. RISK CALCULATIONS IN ACCIDENT ANALYSIS 404
11.9. SIMPLE DYNAMIC MODEL OF INFECTION. 406
11.10. TOX1COLOGICAL MODELING FOR RISK ASSESSMENT:
Key Organs, Physico Chemical Reactions, Compartments and PB PK Models.407
11.10.1. The Liver _ 407
11.10.2. The Kidneys 408
11.10.3. Compartmental Models _ .409
11.10.4. Physiologically Based Pharmaco Kinetic Models (PB PK).412
11.11. CONCLUSION .414
QUESTIONS. 415
CHAPTER 12. PRACTICAL ANALYSIS OF DECISIONS FOR RISK
MANAGEMENT 417
12.1. INTRODUCTION. 419
12.2. REPRESENTING RISKY CHOICES .421
12.2.1. Discussion .422
12.3. THE PRACTICE OF MAKING RISKY DECISIONS. .423
12.3.1 Single Attribute Utility Theory .425
12.3.2. Value of Information Criteria 429
12.3.2.1. Expected Values of Information 429
12.4. FOUNDATIONS OF UTILITY THEORY .433
12.4.1. Multi Attribute Utility .435
12.4.2. Discussion _ 438
12.5. DECISION TREES _ 439
12.6. GAME THEORY 443
12.7. CONCLUSION. _ 445
QUESTIONS _ 445
Table of Contents xv
REFERENCES 447
GLOSSARY 465
LIST OF SYMBOLS 471
INDEX 473 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author | Ricci, Paolo F. |
| author_facet | Ricci, Paolo F. |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Ricci, Paolo F. |
| author_variant | p f r pf pfr |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV021232266 |
| callnumber-first | R - Medicine |
| callnumber-label | RA566 |
| callnumber-raw | RA566.27 |
| callnumber-search | RA566.27 |
| callnumber-sort | RA 3566.27 |
| callnumber-subject | RA - Public Medicine |
| classification_rvk | RB 10915 |
| classification_tum | UMW 012f |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)62473544 (DE-599)BVBBV021232266 |
| dewey-full | 363.17 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 363 - Other social problems and services |
| dewey-raw | 363.17 |
| dewey-search | 363.17 |
| dewey-sort | 3363.17 |
| dewey-tens | 360 - Social problems and services; associations |
| discipline | Soziologie Umwelt Geographie |
| discipline_str_mv | Soziologie Umwelt Geographie |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV021232266 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T13:28:42Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:28:22Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1402037759 9781402037757 1402037767 9781402037764 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-014275075 |
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| physical | XX, 478 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| publishDateSearch | 2006 |
| publishDateSort | 2006 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Environmental pollution |
| series2 | Environmental pollution |
| spelling | Ricci, Paolo F. Verfasser aut Environmental and health risk assessment and management principles and practices by Paolo F. Ricci Dordrecht Springer 2006 XX, 478 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Environmental pollution 9 Médecine de l'environnement Risques pour la santé - Évaluation Substances dangereuses - Aspect sanitaire Substances dangereuses - Évaluation du risque Cost-Benefit Analysis statistics & numerical data Environmental Health Environmental health Hazardous Substances Hazardous substances Health aspects Hazardous substances Risk assessment Health risk assessment Risk Assessment statistics & numerical data Gesundheitsschädlicher Stoff (DE-588)4020767-5 gnd rswk-swf Umweltverschmutzung (DE-588)4186812-2 gnd rswk-swf Umweltgefährdung (DE-588)4346327-7 gnd rswk-swf Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd rswk-swf Gesundheitsgefährdung (DE-588)4071808-6 gnd rswk-swf Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd rswk-swf Umweltgefährdung (DE-588)4346327-7 s Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 s Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 s DE-604 Gesundheitsgefährdung (DE-588)4071808-6 s Umweltverschmutzung (DE-588)4186812-2 s Gesundheitsschädlicher Stoff (DE-588)4020767-5 s 1\p DE-604 Environmental pollution 9 (DE-604)BV012949876 9 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014275075&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Ricci, Paolo F. Environmental and health risk assessment and management principles and practices Environmental pollution Médecine de l'environnement Risques pour la santé - Évaluation Substances dangereuses - Aspect sanitaire Substances dangereuses - Évaluation du risque Cost-Benefit Analysis statistics & numerical data Environmental Health Environmental health Hazardous Substances Hazardous substances Health aspects Hazardous substances Risk assessment Health risk assessment Risk Assessment statistics & numerical data Gesundheitsschädlicher Stoff (DE-588)4020767-5 gnd Umweltverschmutzung (DE-588)4186812-2 gnd Umweltgefährdung (DE-588)4346327-7 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Gesundheitsgefährdung (DE-588)4071808-6 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4020767-5 (DE-588)4186812-2 (DE-588)4346327-7 (DE-588)4137042-9 (DE-588)4071808-6 (DE-588)4121590-4 |
| title | Environmental and health risk assessment and management principles and practices |
| title_auth | Environmental and health risk assessment and management principles and practices |
| title_exact_search | Environmental and health risk assessment and management principles and practices |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Environmental and health risk assessment and management principles and practices |
| title_full | Environmental and health risk assessment and management principles and practices by Paolo F. Ricci |
| title_fullStr | Environmental and health risk assessment and management principles and practices by Paolo F. Ricci |
| title_full_unstemmed | Environmental and health risk assessment and management principles and practices by Paolo F. Ricci |
| title_short | Environmental and health risk assessment and management |
| title_sort | environmental and health risk assessment and management principles and practices |
| title_sub | principles and practices |
| topic | Médecine de l'environnement Risques pour la santé - Évaluation Substances dangereuses - Aspect sanitaire Substances dangereuses - Évaluation du risque Cost-Benefit Analysis statistics & numerical data Environmental Health Environmental health Hazardous Substances Hazardous substances Health aspects Hazardous substances Risk assessment Health risk assessment Risk Assessment statistics & numerical data Gesundheitsschädlicher Stoff (DE-588)4020767-5 gnd Umweltverschmutzung (DE-588)4186812-2 gnd Umweltgefährdung (DE-588)4346327-7 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Gesundheitsgefährdung (DE-588)4071808-6 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Médecine de l'environnement Risques pour la santé - Évaluation Substances dangereuses - Aspect sanitaire Substances dangereuses - Évaluation du risque Cost-Benefit Analysis statistics & numerical data Environmental Health Environmental health Hazardous Substances Hazardous substances Health aspects Hazardous substances Risk assessment Health risk assessment Risk Assessment statistics & numerical data Gesundheitsschädlicher Stoff Umweltverschmutzung Umweltgefährdung Risikoanalyse Gesundheitsgefährdung Risikomanagement |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014275075&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV012949876 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT riccipaolof environmentalandhealthriskassessmentandmanagementprinciplesandpractices |