Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice: a handbook
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C.
World Bank
2005
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XX, 285 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 082135874X 9780821358740 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice |b a handbook |c ed. by Craig Burnside |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, D.C. |b World Bank |c 2005 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804134157569228800 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface xiii
Acknowledgments xv
Contributors ¦. xvii
Acronyms xix
Chapter1
An Introduction to Fiscal Sustainability in Theory
and Practice 1
Craig Burnside
1 Themes 1
2 Omissions 2
3 Basic Theory and Tools 3
4 Business Cycles and Fiscal Rules 5
5 Crises and Fiscal Sustainability 6
6 Application of These Tools 8
Notes 8
References 9
Chapter 2
Theoretical Prerequisites for
Fiscal Sustainability Analysis 11
Craig Burnside
1 The Government Budget Constraint 12
2 Fiscal and Monetary Policy and the Effects of Government Deficits ... .15
Price Level Determination 16
Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policy 20
3 The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level 24
Interpreting the Lifetime Budget Constraint 24
Relevance of the Fiscal Theory 27
The Fiscal Theory and Policy Messages 28
4 Uncertainty 28
5 Conclusion 30
Notes 30
References 32
Chapter 3
Some Tools for Fiscal Sustainability Analysis 35
Craig Burnside
1 The Long Run Fiscal Sustainability Condition 36
An Example 38
2 Achieving a Target Debt Level 41
A Modified Example 41
3 Formal Statistical Tests 43
4 Debt Dynamics 47
Theoretical Background 47
Debt Dynamics in Practice 54
Some Examples of Debt Dynamics 55
5 Using Debt Dynamics in Forward Looking Analysis 62
Time Varying Interest Rates 63
Exchange Rate Risk 64
6 Measuring Debt 67
Relevance of Debt and Interest Measures 73
7 Conclusion 74
Notes 75
References 77
Chapter 4
Debt and Debt Indicators in the Measurement of Vulnerability 81
Punam Chuhan
1 Definition and Measurement of Debt 81
Debt in a Closed Economy 82
Debt in an Open Economy 83
Definition of Debt 85
Measurement of Debt 86
2 Debt Analysis and Standard Indicators of Indebtedness 88
Debt Payment Problems: Liquidity and Solvency 88
3 Assessing Debt Sustainability 98
Definition of Debt Sustainability 99
The Core Elements of Traditional Debt Sustainability Analysis . . . .100
4 Conclusion 103
5 Annex 104
Notes 107
References 109
Chapter 5
Cyclical Adjustment of the Budget Surplus:
Concepts and Measurement Issues 113
Craig Burnside and Yuliya Meshcheryakova
1 Identifying Trends and Cycles in Aggregate Economic Activity 114
Potential Output 115
Linear Trends 116
Trends and Cycles as Defined by the Hodrick Prescott Filter 116
Cycles and Trends as Defined by an Approximate Band Pass Filter ..117
Beveridge Nelson Decomposition 118
Peak to Peak Trend Lines 119
2 Methods for Computing the Cyclically Adjusted Budget Surplus 119
The EU Definition of the Cyclical Component of the Budget 121
The BEA Method of Cyclical Adjustment 122
The IMF and OECD Methods of Cyclical Adjustment 123
3 Usefulness of the Adjusted Surplus Concept 124
4 Conclusion 128
Notes 128
References 129
Chapter 6
Mexico: A Case Study of Procyclical Fiscal Policy 133
Craig Burnside and Yuliya Meshcheryakova
1 Perspectives on Mexico s Fiscal Accounts, 1980 2003 135
The Business Cycle in Mexico 135
Trends and Cycles in Mexico s Fiscal Accounts 142
2 Constructing the Cyclically Adjusted Budget Surplus in Mexico 152
3 Characterizing Fiscal Policy 160
4 The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Real Activity 163
A Small VAR Model of the Mexican Economy 164
The Effect of Fiscal Policy on Real Activity 166
5 Conclusion 171
Notes 172
References 172
Data Sources 174
Chapter 7
Chile s Fiscal Rule 175
Norbert Fiess
1 Fiscal Rules and the Concept of the Structural Balance 177
Fiscal Rules 177
The Structural Balance 179
2 The Chilean Experience 181
Chile s Fiscal Rule 181
Some Observations on Chile s Fiscal Rule 185
Countercyclicality of the Structural Rule 189
3 Self Insurance and Self Protection at the Country Level 191
Sustainable Debt Management and Reduction of
Contagion Risk 192
Public and Social Expenditure Smoothing 192
4 Conclusion 195
5 Annex 197
Notes 200
References 201
Chapter 8
Currency Crises and Fiscal Sustainability 205
Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo
1 The Government s Intertemporal Budget Constraint 207
2 Fiscal Sustainability and Speculative Attacks 209
Money Demand 210
The Rule for Abandoning the Fixed Exchange Rate 211
Post crisis Monetary Policy 212
Determining the Timing of the Crisis 213
3 Ongoing Deficits 215
A Numerical Example 218
4 Prospective Deficits 220
5 Conclusion 224
6 Technical Annex 225
The Timing of the Crisis 225
Ongoing Deficits 226
Prospective Deficits 229
Notes 230
References 231
Chapter 9
Financing the Costs of Currency Crises 233
Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo
1 Prices and Currency Crises 235
2 The Government Budget Constraint 239
3 A Benchmark Model 244
A Crisis in the Benchmark Model 245
A Numerical Example 245
4 Model Extensions 246
Government Debt in Units of Local Currency 247
Implicit Fiscal Reform 248
Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity: Nontradable Goods
with Sticky Prices 249
Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity: Distribution Costs 250
5 Tax Revenues and Currency Crises 251
6 Case Studies of Mexico, Korea, and Turkey 252
Mexico 1994 253
Korea 1997 255
Turkey 2001 257
7 Governmental Benefits of Crises 258
8 Conclusion 263
9 Annex: Solving the Model 264
The Baseline Model 264
The Extended Model with Nominal Debt 264
The Extended Model with Nominal Transfers 265
The Extended Model with Sticky Nontradables Prices 265
Notes 268
References 269
Index 271
Boxes
4.1: Debt Instruments 85
7.1: A Structural Balance for Argentina—Sensitivity to Methodology . .188
Figures
2.1: Seigniorage as a Function of the Money Growth Rate 1°
6.1: Real GDP in Mexico, 1980 2003 136
6.2: Seasonally Adjusted Real GDP in Mexico, 1980 2003 136
6.3: Trends in Real GDP, 1980 2003 138
6.4: Deviations from Trend in Real GDP, 1980 2003 139
6.5: Public Sector Revenue in Mexico, 1980 2003 H4
6.6: Cyclical Components of Public Sector Revenue, 1980 2003 145
6.7: Public Sector Expenditure in Mexico, 1980 2003 150
6.8: Cyclical Components of Public Sector Expenditure, 1980 2003 . . • 151
6.9: Cyclical Components of Oil Based Revenue in Mexico,
1980 2003 155
6.10: Measures of the Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance in Mexico,
1980 2003 159
6.11: The Discretionary Balance and the Fiscal Impulse, 1980 2003 l62
6.12: Impulse Response Functions 167
6.13: Deviations of Output from Trend, and the Estimated
Component Due to Fiscal Shocks, 1981 2003 170
7.1: Actual, Adjusted, and Structural Balance and Total
Cyclical Budget Components, 1987 2002 184
7.2: Decomposition of Total Cyclical Component, 1987 2000 185
7.3: Copper Price, 1900 2000 186
7B.1: Argentina: Potential and Actual GDP, 1979 Q4 2OO1 Q4 188
7B.2: Argentina: Structural Economic Balance, 1995 2001 188
7.4: Output Gap, 1986 2000 189
7.5: Deficit and Surplus Bias 190
7.6: Cyclical Components of GDP and Total Expenditure,
1989 2001 194
7.7: Cyclical Components of GDP and Social Expenditure,
1989 2001 195
A7.1: Cyclical Components of GDP and Housing Expenditure 197
A7.2: Cyclical Components of GDP and Social Security Expenditure . . . .198
A7.3: Cyclical Components of GDP and Education Expenditure 198
A7.4: Cyclical Components of GDP and Expenditure on Subsidies 199
A7.5: Cyclical Components of GDP and Other Social Expenditure 199
8.1: Equilibrium Paths for Crisis Models 219
9.1: Price Indices in Mexico, 1993 2000 236
9.2: Price Indices in Korea, 1996 2000 236
Tables
3.1: Size of the Primary Surplus Needed for Bulgaria to Achieve
a 60 Percent Debt Target between 2001 and 2005 42
3.2: The Stock of Public Debt in Turkey, 1994 2002 55
3.3: Public Debt Dynamics in Turkey, 1995 2002 57
3.4: The Stock of Public Debt in Argentina, 1993 2002 60
3.5: Public Debt Dynamics in Argentina, 1994 2002 60
3.6: Bulgaria s Debt Dynamics with Time Varying Interest Rates,
2001 7 64
3.7: Bulgaria s Debt Dynamics with Exchange Rate Risk, 2001 7 66
4.1: Core Principles in the Measurement of Debt 87
4.2: Significant Macroeconomic Correlates of Repayment Crises in
Developing Countries 91
4.3: Performance of Selected Economic Indicators in 17 Empirical
Studies of Currency Crises 92
4.4: Overview of Debt Indicators 97
A4.1: Sovereign Defaults on Debt to Private Creditors,
Rated Issuers, 1975 2002 104
A4.2: Sovereign Defaults on Debt to Private Creditors,
Unrated Issuers, 1975 2002 105
6.1: Estimates of a Piecewise Linear Trend in the Logarithm
of Seasonally Adjusted Real GDP, 1980 Ql 2003 Q2 138
6.2: Correlations among Various Measures of the Cyclical
Component of GDP, 1980 Ql 2003 Q2 140
6.3: Summary Budget Figures, 1980 2002 142
6.4: Components of Public Sector Revenue and Expenditure,
1980 2002 143
6.5: Cyclical Properties of Public Sector Revenue and Expenditure,
1980 Ql 2003 Q2 146
6.6: Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure Elasticities 153
6.7: Variance Decomposition of Output 169
7.1: Chile s Fiscal Rule within the Ehrlich Becker
Insurance Framework 191
8.1: Fiscal Surplus, 1995 9 209
8.2: Parameters for the Numerical Examples 218
8.3: Changes in Banking Sector Stock Market Values 223
8.4: Estimated Nonperforming Loans, June 1997 224
8.5: Costs of Restructuring and Recapitalizing the Banking System 224
9.1: Rates of Change for Prices and Exchange Rate in the
First Year after the Devaluation 235
9.2: Distribution Margins by Expenditure Category 237
9.3: Results for Numerical Examples 246
9.4: Rates of Growth of Real GDP in the First Year after a Crisis 251
9.5: Pre and Post crisis Data for Mexico 254
9.6: Pre and Post crisis Data for Korea 255
9.7: Pre and Post crisis Data for Turkey 257
|
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| id | DE-604.BV020827396 |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:20:09Z |
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| isbn | 082135874X 9780821358740 |
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| publisher | World Bank |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice a handbook ed. by Craig Burnside Washington, D.C. World Bank 2005 XX, 285 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Belastingpolitiek gtt Budget - Guides, manuels, etc Budget rasuqam Cycle économique rasuqam Dette publique rasuqam Finances publiques - Guides, manuels, etc Finances publiques rasuqam Finanzas públicas - Manuales Fiscalité rasuqam Modèle économétrique rasuqam Politique fiscale - Guides, manuels, etc Politique fiscale rasuqam Política fiscal - Manuales Presupuesto - Manuales Finanzwirtschaft Finance, Public Handbooks, manuals, etc Budget Handbooks, manuals, etc Fiscal policy Handbooks, manuals, etc Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 gnd rswk-swf Fiskalpolitik (DE-588)4071234-5 gnd rswk-swf Pays en développement rasuqam Fiscal sustainability (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Guide (Descripteur de forme) rasuqam Étude comparée (Descripteur de forme) rasuqam Fiskalpolitik (DE-588)4071234-5 s Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 s b DE-604 Burnside, Craig 1965- Sonstige (DE-588)128369272 oth Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 0-8213-5875-8 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=013832658&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice a handbook Belastingpolitiek gtt Budget - Guides, manuels, etc Budget rasuqam Cycle économique rasuqam Dette publique rasuqam Finances publiques - Guides, manuels, etc Finances publiques rasuqam Finanzas públicas - Manuales Fiscalité rasuqam Modèle économétrique rasuqam Politique fiscale - Guides, manuels, etc Politique fiscale rasuqam Política fiscal - Manuales Presupuesto - Manuales Finanzwirtschaft Finance, Public Handbooks, manuals, etc Budget Handbooks, manuals, etc Fiscal policy Handbooks, manuals, etc Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 gnd Fiskalpolitik (DE-588)4071234-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4326464-5 (DE-588)4071234-5 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice a handbook |
| title_auth | Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice a handbook |
| title_exact_search | Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice a handbook |
| title_full | Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice a handbook ed. by Craig Burnside |
| title_fullStr | Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice a handbook ed. by Craig Burnside |
| title_full_unstemmed | Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice a handbook ed. by Craig Burnside |
| title_short | Fiscal sustainability in theory and practice |
| title_sort | fiscal sustainability in theory and practice a handbook |
| title_sub | a handbook |
| topic | Belastingpolitiek gtt Budget - Guides, manuels, etc Budget rasuqam Cycle économique rasuqam Dette publique rasuqam Finances publiques - Guides, manuels, etc Finances publiques rasuqam Finanzas públicas - Manuales Fiscalité rasuqam Modèle économétrique rasuqam Politique fiscale - Guides, manuels, etc Politique fiscale rasuqam Política fiscal - Manuales Presupuesto - Manuales Finanzwirtschaft Finance, Public Handbooks, manuals, etc Budget Handbooks, manuals, etc Fiscal policy Handbooks, manuals, etc Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 gnd Fiskalpolitik (DE-588)4071234-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Belastingpolitiek Budget - Guides, manuels, etc Budget Cycle économique Dette publique Finances publiques - Guides, manuels, etc Finances publiques Finanzas públicas - Manuales Fiscalité Modèle économétrique Politique fiscale - Guides, manuels, etc Politique fiscale Política fiscal - Manuales Presupuesto - Manuales Finanzwirtschaft Finance, Public Handbooks, manuals, etc Budget Handbooks, manuals, etc Fiscal policy Handbooks, manuals, etc Nachhaltigkeit Fiskalpolitik Pays en développement Aufsatzsammlung Guide (Descripteur de forme) Étude comparée (Descripteur de forme) |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=013832658&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT burnsidecraig fiscalsustainabilityintheoryandpracticeahandbook |