Political risk and the institutional environment for foreign direct investment in Latin America: an empirical analysis with a case study on Mexico
Gespeichert in:
1. Verfasser: | |
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Format: | Abschlussarbeit Buch |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
Frankfurt am Main [u.a.]
Lang
2005
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Schriftenreihe: | Göttinger Studien zur Entwicklungsökonomik
15 |
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
Beschreibung: | XV, 321 S. graph. Darst. |
ISBN: | 0820476595 3631533462 |
Internformat
MARC
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245 | 1 | 0 | |a Political risk and the institutional environment for foreign direct investment in Latin America |b an empirical analysis with a case study on Mexico |c Jörg Stosberg |
264 | 1 | |a Frankfurt am Main [u.a.] |b Lang |c 2005 | |
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490 | 1 | |a Göttinger Studien zur Entwicklungsökonomik |v 15 | |
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650 | 4 | |a Country risk |z Latin America | |
650 | 4 | |a Country risk |z Mexico | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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adam_text | Table of Contents
List of Figures XIII
List of Tables XVII
List of Abbreviations IXX
List of Variables XXI
1 Introduction 1
1.1 The Problem 1
1.2 Concept and Methodology 4
2. Risk in the Theory of Investment 7
2.1 General Theory of Investment 7
2.1.1 Basic Theory of Investment 7
2.1.1.1 Definition and Categories of Investment 7
2.1.1.2 Opportunity Costs, Time Preference and
Net Present Value Approach 9
2.1.2 Models of Investment under Certainty 10
2.1.2.1 Overview 10
2.1.2.2 The q theory of Tobin 12
2.1.2.2.1 The Basic Model 12
2.1.2.2.2 The Romer Model 13
2.1.2.2.2.1 The Model 13
2.1.2.2.2.2 Analyzing the Model 17
2.1.2.3 Critical Evaluation of the Models 18
2.1.3 Investment under Uncertainty 20
2.1.3.1 Overview 20
2.1.3.2 Characteristics of Uncertainty and Risk 20
2.1.3.3 Uncertainty in the Romer Model 22
2.1.3.3.1 Modification of the Model 22
2.1.3.3.2 Effects of Uncertainty on Reversible Investments 23
2.1.3.3.3 Effects of Uncertainty on Irreversible Investment 25
2.1.3.4 The Dixit/Pindyck Model 28
2.1.3.4.1 Overview 28
2.1.3.4.2 The Model 29
2.1.3.4.3 Analyzing the Model 35
2.1.3.5 Critical Evaluation of the Models 37
2.1.4 Summary of Propositions 37
2.2 Theory of International Investment 38
2.2.1 Overview 38
2.2.2 Definition and Characteristics of FDI 39
2.2.3 Theoretical Determinants of FDI 41
2.2.3.1 Overview 41
2.2.3.2 The Eclectic Paradigm as Analytical Framework 46
2.2.4 Empirical Studies of Aggregate FDI 51
2.2.4.1 Overview 51
2.2.4.2 Empirical Determinants of FDI 51
X Table of Contents
2.2.5 Political Risk and International Investment 56
2.2.5.1 Definition of Political Risk 56
2.2.5.2 Categories of Political Risk and Anecdotal Evidence 58
2.2.5.3 Modeling Political Risks for International investors 63
2.2.5.3.1 Existing Models of Political Risks 63
2.2.5.3.2 Implications of General Investment Models 65
2.2.5.4 Empirical Evidence 68
2.3 Concluding Remarks 75
2.4 Chapter Summary 77
3. Political Risk and National Institutions 79
3.1 Political Institutions and Economic Performance 79
3.1.1 Overview 79
3.1.2 The Analytical Framework 79
3.1.2.1 Theoretical Foundations 79
3.1.2.2 Property Rights 85
3.1.2.3 The Concept of Credible Commitment 86
3.1.2.4 Rule of Law 88
3.1.2.5 Discretionary Freedom of the Government 92
3.1.2.6 The Concept of Social Capital 96
3.1.3 Political Regime Type and FDI 98
3.1.3.1 Systematic Order Of Political Regimes 98
3.1.3.2 Economic Analysis of Political Regimes 101
3.2. Modeling the Emergence of Political Risks 105
3.2.1 Classical Political Risk Models 105
3.2.2 The Political Constraints Model 106
3.2.3 The Effective Party Approach 109
3.2.4 Synthesis and Hypothesis 110
3.3 Empirical Measures of Political Risks 112
3.3.1 Overview 112
3.3.2 The International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) 118
3.3.3 The POLCON lndex 122
3.3.4 Critical Evaluations of the Indices 127
3.4 Mitigating Political Risk 131
3.4.1 Overview 131
3.4.2 National Mitigation Strategies 132
3.4.2.1 Investment Incentives, Social Standards
and Environmental Legislation 132
3.4.2.2 Macroeconomic Stability 135
3.4.2.3 Accountability, Transparency and
Rules Based Governance 136
3.4.3 International Strategies 138
3.4.3.1 Multilateral Agreements 138
3.4.3.2 Bilateral Agreements and Regional Integration 140
3.5 Conclusion 141
3.6 Chapter Summary 141
Table of Contents XI
4. Political Risk and FDI in Latin America 143
4.1 Stylized Facts on Foreign Investment in Latin America 143
4.2 Empirical Investigation of the Impact of Political Risk on FDI 145
4.2.1 Methodology 145
4.2.2 Model Specification 151
4.2.3 Data Issues 152
4.2.4 Results 152
4.3 Conclusions 160
4.4 Chapter Summary 161
5. Political Risk and FDI in Mexico 163
5.1 Politics in Mexico 163
5.1.1 Stylized Facts of Mexican Political History 163
5.1.2 The Current Political System in Mexico 166
5.1.2.1 Overview 166
5.1.2.2 The Executive Branch of Government 167
5.1.2.3 The Legislative Branch of Government 171
5.1.2.4 The National Judiciary 173
5.1.2.5 The Political Parties 175
5.1.2.6 The Federalist System 177
5.1.2.7 Freedom of Speech, Press and Media 178
5.2 Foreign Capital Flows to Mexico 181
5.2.1 Brief Economic History 181
5.2.1.1 Overview 181
5.2.1.2 The Reform Period 1982 today 184
5.2.2 The Evolution of Foreign Investment to Mexico 187
5.2.2.1 The Mexican Foreign Investment Legislation 187
5.2.2.1.1 The Evolution of the National FDI Legislation 187
5.2.2.1.2 Investment Legislation of NAFTA and
other Bilateral Agreements 194
5.2.2.2 Mexican Foreign Investment Policy and
Inflows of FDI to Mexico 198
5.2.2.3 The Structure and Geographical Origins
of FDI to Mexico 207
5.3 Political Risk in Mexico 214
5.3.1 Overview 214
5.3.2 The Macroeconomic Environment 214
5.3.3 Mexican Institutions and Risk 220
5.3.3.1 Government Stability, Political Constraints
and Regime Type 220
5.3.3.2 Rule Of Law 231
5.3.3.3 Corruption 238
5.3.3.4 Protection of Property Rights 244
5.3.4 Societal Factors of Risk 249
5.3.4.1 Overview 249
5.3.4.2 Ethnic, Religious and other Internal Conflicts 249
5.3.4.3 Governmental Legitimacy in Mexico 254
Xll Table of Contents
5.3.5 Aggregate Political Risk in Mexico 257
5.4 Risk Mitigation Strategies in Mexico 263
5.4.1 National Risk Mitigation Strategies 263
5.4.1.1 Investment Enhancement by Incentives 263
5.4.1.2 The Beauty Contest 264
5.4.2 The International Risk Mitigation Strategy 265
5.5 Conclusion 269
5.6 Chapter Summary 270
6. Conclusion and Outlook 273
Annex I 277
Annex II 283
References 287
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Evolution of Public and Private Capital Transfers
to Developing Countries 3
Figure 2.1: Categories of Investments by Object 8
Figure 2.2: Dynamics of the capital stock 15
Figure 2.3: Dynamics of q 15
Figure 2.4: The Phase Diagram 16
Figure 2.5: The Saddle Path 17
Figure 2.6: Effects of Tax Reduction 18
Figure 2.7: Classes of Uncertainty 21
Figure 2.8: Tax Reduction with Uncertainty and Reversible Investment 23
Figure 2.9: Effects of Uncertainty with Reversible Investment 24
Figure 2.10: Effects of Tax Reduction with Uncertainty
and Irreversible Investment 25
Figure 2.11: Effects of Uncertainty with Irreversible
and Reversible Investment 27
Figure 2.12 Evolution of the Ship Price 30
Figure 2.13: Cost and Benefits of the Project with Option Value 33
Figure 2.14: Characteristics of the Solution in
the Continuous Time Case 34
Figure 2.15: Evolution of Ship Prices 35
Figure 2.16: Effects of Higher Uncertainty 36
Figure 2.17: Basic Motivations for FDI 46
Figure 2.18: Internationalization in the OLI Paradigm 50
Figure 2.19: Typology of Political Risks 59
Figure 2.20: Dimensions of Aggregate Country Risk 60
Figure 2.21: Categories of Political Risk Insurance offered by MIGA 62
Figure 2.22: Effects of Political Risk in the Dixit/Pindyck Model 68
Figure 3.1: Social Norms, Rules and Organizations
Coordinating Human Behavior 80
Figure 3.2: Political System, Institutions and Incentives
for Private Investment 83
Figure 3.3: Variation of Policy Outcomes with Unlimited Discretion 94
Figure 3.4: Variation of Policy Outcomes with Limited Discretion 95
Figure 3.5: Typology of Political Systems 99
Figure 3.6: Continuum of Political Systems 101
Figure 3.7: Determinants of Political Risk in the
Political Constraints Model 109
Figure 3.8: Methodologies in Political Risk Analysis 113
Figure 3.9: Social and Political Variables in the Economist Index 114
Figure 3.10: Political Risk Variables in the CRS lndex 115
Figure 3.11: Components of the BERI Political Risk Index 116
Figure 3.12: Guidelines of Political Risk According to BERI 118
Figure 3.13: Political Systems in ICRG 119
Figure 3.14: Components of the ICRG Political Risk Index 120
Figure 3.15: Preference Orderings with Two Veto Players 125
XIV LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 4.1: Geographical Distribution of Private Capital Flows
To Developing Countries 144
Figure 5.1: Freedom House Press Freedom Indicator for Mexico 180
Figure 5.2 Freedom House Press Freedom Indicator
for Major Latin American Countries 181
Figure 5.3: GDP Per Capita Growth between 1980 1990 184
Figure 5.4: Mexican Bilateral and Multilateral Free Trade Agreements 187
Figure 5.5: FDI Inflows to Mexico 1940 1970 202
Figure 5.6: FDI Inflows to Mexico 1970 2000 203
Figure 5.7: FDI Inflows to Mexico as a percentage of GDP 1970 2000 204
Figure 5.8: Mexico s Share in Worldwide FDI 1970 2000 205
Figure 5.9: Structure of Mexican FDI in 1911 207
Figure 5.10: Geographical Origins of Mexican FDI in 1911 208
Figure 5.11: Structure of Mexican FDI in 1940 1950 209
Figure 5.12: Structure of Mexican FDI in 1960 1970 209
Figure 5.13: Structure of Mexican FDI from 1994 1998 210
Figure 5.14: Geographical Origins of Mexican FDI 1994 2002 211
Figure 5.15: Mexican Interest Spreads on Sovereign Debt 1993 2000 215
Figure 5.16: Mexican Interest Rate Spreads over US treasury bonds 216
Figure 5.17: Economic Risk in Mexico 1984 2003 217
Figure 5.18: Correlation between Economic Risk and FDI 217
Figure 5.19: Financial Risk in Mexico 1984 2003 218
Figure 5.20: Correlation between Financial Risk and FDI 219
Figure 5.21: Government Stability in Mexico 1984 2003 223
Figure 5.22: Correlation between Government Stability and FDI 224
Figure 5.23: Political Constraints in Mexico 1960 2001 225
Figure 5.24: Democratic Accountability in Mexico 1984 2001 226
Figure 5.25: Correlation between Political Constraints and FDI 227
Figure 5.26: Correlation between Democratic Accountability and FDI 228
Figure 5.27: Military in Politics in Mexico 1984 2001 229
Figure 5.28: Correlation between Military Involvement in
Politics and FDI 230
Figure 5.29: Rule of Law Rating in Mexico 1984 2003 235
Figure 5.30: Correlation between Rule of Law and FDI 236
Figure 5.31: Bureaucratic Quality in Mexico 1984 2003 237
Figure 5.32: Correlation between Bureaucratic Quality and FDI 238
Figure 5.33: Corruption in Mexico 1984 2003 measured by the CPI 242
Figure 5.34: The PRS Corruption Index in Mexico 1984 2003 243
Figure 5.35: Correlation between Corruption and FDI 244
Figure 5.36: Expropriation Risk in Mexico 1982 1997 246
Figure 5.37: Correlation between Expropriation Risk and FDI 246
Figure 5.38: Investment Profile in Mexico 1984 2003 247
Figure 5.39: Correlation between Investment Profile and FDI 248
Figure 5.40: Ethnic Tensions in Mexico 1984 2003 251
Figure 5.41: Religious Tensions in Mexico 1984 2003 252
Figure 5.42: Internal Conflict in Mexico 1984 2003 253
Figure 5.43: Correlation between Internal Conflict and FDI 253
LIST OF FIGURES _XV
Figure 5.44: Real Wages in Mexico 1980 1990 255
Figure 5.45: Socioeconomic Conditions in Mexico 1984 2003 256
Figure 5.46: Correlation between Socioeconomic Conditions and FDI 257
Figure 5.47 Political Risk in Mexico 1984 2003 260
Figure 5.48: Correlation between Political Risk and FDI 261
Figure 5.49: Composite Risk in Mexico 1984 2003 261
Figure 5.50: Correlation between Composite Risk and FDI 262
List of Tables
Table 2.1: Theories to Explain International Investment 43
Table 2.2: Theories to Explain the Location of FDI Flows to Developing
Countries 45
Table 2.3: Empirical Evidence on Potential Determinants of FDI 52
Table 2.4: Survey Based Empirical Studies of Political Risk 69
Table 2.5: Econometric Empirical Studies of Political Risk 72
Table 3.1: Main Characteristics of Political Risk Indicators 128
Table 4.1: Influence of Aggregate Political Risk on FDI 153
Table 4.2: Influence of Macroeconomic Risk Factors on FDI 154
Table 4.3: Influence of Societal Risk Factors on FDI 156
Table 4.4: Influence of Governance Related Risk Factors on FDI 157
Table 4.5: Influence of Governmental Discretion on FDI 157
Table 4.6: Influence of Governance Related Risk Factors on FDI 158
Table 4.7: Robustness of Political Risk Indicators 159
Table 5.1: Bill Success Rate of the Mexican Presidency 169
Table 5.2: Confidence of Mexicans and US Americans
in Congress and Parties 173
Table 5.3: Confidence of Mexicans and US Americans in the Judiciary 175
Table 5.4: Restrictions of the 1973 FDI Law 190
Table 5.5: FDI Legislation in Mexico 192
Table 5.6: Restrictions on FDI to Mexico 193
Table 5.7: Overview of the NAFTA Investment Chapter 196
Table 5.8: Regional Distribution of FDI in Mexico 212
Table 5.9: Effects of Opacity in Mexico 259
|
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author | Stosberg, Jörg |
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genre | (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content |
genre_facet | Hochschulschrift |
geographic | Lateinamerika Mexiko Mexiko (DE-588)4039058-5 gnd Lateinamerika (DE-588)4074032-8 gnd |
geographic_facet | Lateinamerika Mexiko |
id | DE-604.BV019878333 |
illustrated | Illustrated |
indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:08:13Z |
institution | BVB |
isbn | 0820476595 3631533462 |
language | English |
oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-013202518 |
oclc_num | 56967064 |
open_access_boolean | |
owner | DE-384 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-2070s DE-188 |
owner_facet | DE-384 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-2070s DE-188 |
physical | XV, 321 S. graph. Darst. |
publishDate | 2005 |
publishDateSearch | 2005 |
publishDateSort | 2005 |
publisher | Lang |
record_format | marc |
series | Göttinger Studien zur Entwicklungsökonomik |
series2 | Göttinger Studien zur Entwicklungsökonomik |
spelling | Stosberg, Jörg Verfasser aut Political risk and the institutional environment for foreign direct investment in Latin America an empirical analysis with a case study on Mexico Jörg Stosberg Frankfurt am Main [u.a.] Lang 2005 XV, 321 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Göttinger Studien zur Entwicklungsökonomik 15 Zugl.: Göttingen, Univ., Diss., 2004 Country risk Latin America Country risk Mexico Investments, Foreign Latin America Investments, Foreign Mexico Länderrisiko (DE-588)4114347-4 gnd rswk-swf Politische Steuerung (DE-588)4212404-9 gnd rswk-swf Direktinvestition (DE-588)4070496-8 gnd rswk-swf Politisches Risiko (DE-588)4121490-0 gnd rswk-swf Lateinamerika Mexiko Mexiko (DE-588)4039058-5 gnd rswk-swf Lateinamerika (DE-588)4074032-8 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Lateinamerika (DE-588)4074032-8 g Direktinvestition (DE-588)4070496-8 s Politisches Risiko (DE-588)4121490-0 s Politische Steuerung (DE-588)4212404-9 s DE-604 Mexiko (DE-588)4039058-5 g Länderrisiko (DE-588)4114347-4 s Göttinger Studien zur Entwicklungsökonomik 15 (DE-604)BV008381787 15 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=013202518&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
spellingShingle | Stosberg, Jörg Political risk and the institutional environment for foreign direct investment in Latin America an empirical analysis with a case study on Mexico Göttinger Studien zur Entwicklungsökonomik Country risk Latin America Country risk Mexico Investments, Foreign Latin America Investments, Foreign Mexico Länderrisiko (DE-588)4114347-4 gnd Politische Steuerung (DE-588)4212404-9 gnd Direktinvestition (DE-588)4070496-8 gnd Politisches Risiko (DE-588)4121490-0 gnd |
subject_GND | (DE-588)4114347-4 (DE-588)4212404-9 (DE-588)4070496-8 (DE-588)4121490-0 (DE-588)4039058-5 (DE-588)4074032-8 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
title | Political risk and the institutional environment for foreign direct investment in Latin America an empirical analysis with a case study on Mexico |
title_auth | Political risk and the institutional environment for foreign direct investment in Latin America an empirical analysis with a case study on Mexico |
title_exact_search | Political risk and the institutional environment for foreign direct investment in Latin America an empirical analysis with a case study on Mexico |
title_full | Political risk and the institutional environment for foreign direct investment in Latin America an empirical analysis with a case study on Mexico Jörg Stosberg |
title_fullStr | Political risk and the institutional environment for foreign direct investment in Latin America an empirical analysis with a case study on Mexico Jörg Stosberg |
title_full_unstemmed | Political risk and the institutional environment for foreign direct investment in Latin America an empirical analysis with a case study on Mexico Jörg Stosberg |
title_short | Political risk and the institutional environment for foreign direct investment in Latin America |
title_sort | political risk and the institutional environment for foreign direct investment in latin america an empirical analysis with a case study on mexico |
title_sub | an empirical analysis with a case study on Mexico |
topic | Country risk Latin America Country risk Mexico Investments, Foreign Latin America Investments, Foreign Mexico Länderrisiko (DE-588)4114347-4 gnd Politische Steuerung (DE-588)4212404-9 gnd Direktinvestition (DE-588)4070496-8 gnd Politisches Risiko (DE-588)4121490-0 gnd |
topic_facet | Country risk Latin America Country risk Mexico Investments, Foreign Latin America Investments, Foreign Mexico Länderrisiko Politische Steuerung Direktinvestition Politisches Risiko Lateinamerika Mexiko Hochschulschrift |
url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=013202518&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
volume_link | (DE-604)BV008381787 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT stosbergjorg politicalriskandtheinstitutionalenvironmentforforeigndirectinvestmentinlatinamericaanempiricalanalysiswithacasestudyonmexico |