Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C.
World Bank
2005
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Disaster risk management series
5 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XII, 132 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 0821359304 9780821359303 0821359312 |
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| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, D.C. |b World Bank |c 2005 | |
| 300 | |a XII, 132 S. |b graph. Darst., Kt. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
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| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a Disaster risk management series |v 5 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Administração de risco ambiental |2 larpcal | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Catastrophe naturelle |2 rasuqam | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Catastrophes naturelles - Évaluation du risque | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Desastres ambientais |2 larpcal | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Economische problemen |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Impact économique |2 rasuqam | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Milieux géographiques dangereux - Évaluation du risque | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Mortalité |2 rasuqam | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Natuurrampen |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Risicoanalyse |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Sterfte |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Zone à risque |2 rasuqam | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Évaluation des risques |2 rasuqam | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a aHazardous geographic environments |a xRisk assessment | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804133293306675200 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface xiii
Introduction xv
1. Drought Disaster in Asia 1
Mathew Barlow, Heidi Cullen, Brad Lyon, and Olga Wilhelmi
2. Global Landslides Risk Case Study 21
Farrokh Nadim, Oddvar Kjekstad, Ulrik Domaas, Ramez Rafat,
and Pascal Peduzzi
3. Storm Surges in Coastal Areas 79
Robert J. Nicholls
4. Natural Disaster Risks in Sri Lanka: Mapping Hazards and Risk Hotspots 109
LareefZubair and Vidhura Ralapanawe, Upamala Tennakoon,
Zeenas Yahiya, and Ruvini Perera
5. Multihazard Risks in Caracas, Republica Bolivariana de Venezuela 137
Kristina R. Czuchlewski, Klaus H. Jacob, Arthur L. Lerner Lam, Kevin Vranes, and
Students of the Urban Planning Studio: Disaster Resilient Caracas
6. Reducing the Impacts of Floods through Early Warning and Preparedness: 165
A Pilot Study for Kenya
Hussein Gadain, Nicolas Bidault, Linda Stephen, Ben Watkins,
Maxx Dilley, and Nancy Mutunga
Tables
Table 2.1 Description of variables 25
Table 2.2. Classification of slope factor Sr for evaluation of susceptibility 26
Table 2.3. Classification of lithology factor S| for evaluation of susceptibility 27
Table 2.4. Classification of soil moisture factor Sh for evaluation of susceptibility 28
Table 2.5. Classification of precipitation trigger indicator Tp 28
Table 2.6. Classification of seismicity trigger indicator Ts 31
Table 2.7. Classification of landslide hazard potential based on the computed hazard index
originally suggested by Mora and Vahrson (1994) 31
Table 2.8. Classification of landslide hazard potential based on the computed hazard index
used in this study 31
Table 2.9. Classification of slope factor Sr for snow avalanche susceptibility 31
Table 2.10. Classification of precipitation factor Tp for avalanche hazard evaluation 38
v
vi Natural Disaster Hotspots Case Studies
Table 2.11. Classification of temperature factor Tt for avalanche hazard analysis 38
Table 2.12. Classification of snow avalanche hazard potential 38
Table 2.13. Annual frequency of occurrence and typical return period (in years) for different classes of
landslide and avalanche hazard 39
Table 2.A. 1. Classes of frequencies 66
Table 2.A.2. Vulnerability indicators 72
Table 2.A.3. Exponent and p value for landslide multiple regression 74
Table 2.A.4. Other exponents and p values for landslide multiple regression 75
Table 3.1. Hurricane characteristics and indicative surge magnitudes based on the Saffir Simpson
scale 81
Table 3.2. Some major coastal cities and human induced subsidence during the 20th century 82
Table 3.3. Generic approaches to hazard reduction based on purposeful adjustment. 85
Table 3.4. Regional contributions to coastal flooding in 1990 and the 2020s based on the
analysis of Nicholls (2004). 87
Table 3.5. The range of scenarios used by Nicholls (2004) 88
Table 3.6. Estimates of the global exposure and incidence of flooding under the four SRES
scenarios in the 2080s, plus 1990 estimates as a reference 88
Table 3.7. Global mean sea level rise scenarios (cm) used by Nicholls (2004) (referenced to 1990),
including the IS92a GGal scenario as a reference 90
Table 3.8. The SRES Socioeconomic Scenarios for the 2080s: A Global Summary 90
Table 3.9. Deaths associated with major hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons (MC) and extra
tropical storm (ETS) disasters ( l,000 deaths) since 1700. 92
Table 3.10. Deaths in storm surges around the North Sea from the 1 lth to the 18th centuries.
All surges were due to extra tropical storms 93
Table 3.11. An expert synthesis of storm surge hotspots around the world. 98
Table 3.12. Potential and actual hotspots vulnerable to flooding by the storm surge. 99
Table 5.1. Critical Facilities and Systems (Categories and Definitions) 142
Table 5.2. Studio estimates for the order of magnitude of losses for a generic city whose assets are
valued at US billion. 161
Table 6.1. Flood scenarios for a worst case and a moderate case 177
Table 6.2. Characteristics of the different livelihood zones analyzed 182
Table 6.3. Percentage of livestock contribution to cash income and food consumption of the
livelihood zones analyzed 182
Figures
Figure 1.1. Total Annual Precipitation, in millimeters. 3
Figure 1.2. Total number of drought disasters for all Asian countries with geo referenced boundaries
available 4
Figure 1.3. Number of drought disasters with month specified, for all countries listed in the Asia
category in EM DAT 5
Figure 1.4. Number of drought disasters for Asia and the maritime continent, summed by year
and over all countries in the region 5
Figure 1.5. Number of drought disasters with months specified for Asia and the maritime
continent 6
Contents vii
Figure 1.6. Number of drought disasters for non Asia countries in the EM DAT database 6
Figure 1.7. Precipitation anomalies for the 1999 2001 period, divided by yearly standard
deviation to facilitate comparison over diverse climate regimes 7
Figure 1.8. Reported drought disasters, 1999 2001 8
Figure 1.9. Match between drought disaster and climatic measure of drought (3 consecutive
months with precipitation deficits meeting a set threshold). 10
Figure 1.10. Match between drought disaster and climatic measure of drought (4 out of 6 months
with precipitation deficits meeting a set threshold). 10
Figure 1.11. Match between drought disaster and climatic measure of drought (12 month average
of Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation (WASP). 11
Figure 1.12. Number of matches for 12 month WASP compared to the total number of drought
disaster reports (with monthly data). 11
Figure 1.13. Correlation between the 12 month WASP calculated from two different precipitation data
sets: the University of East Anglia (UEA) precipitation data and the CPC s Merged Analysis
of Precipitation (CMAP). 13
Figure 1.14. Time series of drought disasters and climatic drought events (based on 12 month WASP)
13
Figure 1.15. Climate anomalies (12 month WASP) for two periods: 1982 1983 (red) and 1999 2000
(blue) 14
Figure 1.16. WASP estimate of climatic drought (shaded brown curve) and drought disaster declara¬
tions (red bars) for Central Southwest Asia countries. 15
Figure 1.17. WASP estimate of climatic drought (shaded brown curve) and drought disaster
declarations (red bars) for Laos and India. 16
Figure l.A.l. Persistent deficit of precipitation 18
Figure 2.1. General approach for landslide hazard and risk evaluation 23
Figure 2.2. Global soil moisture index: 1961 1990 29
Figure 2.3. Expected monthly extreme values for a 100 years event. 30
Figure 2.4. Expected PGA with a return period of 475 years 32
Figure 2.5. Variation of slope factor, Sr, in Tajikistan and its neighboring regions 33
Figure 2.6. Variation of lithology factor, Si, in Tajikistan and its neighboring regions 34
Figure 2.7. Variation of seismic trigger indicator, Ts, in Tajikistan and its neighboring regions 35
Figure 2.8. Variation of soil moisture factor, Sh, in Tajikistan and its neighboring regions 36
Figure 2.9. Landslide hazard zonation map obtained for Tajikistan and its neighboring regions 37
Figure 2.10. Example landslide hazard map for Central American and Caribbean countries 40
Figure 2.11. Example landslide risk map for parts of Central and South America 41
Figure 2.12. Historical rock avalanche events in Mere Romsdal and Sogn Fjordane Counties
extracted from Norway s historical database (NGU/Astor Furseth) 42
Figure 2.13. Regional hazard zonation in More Romsdal County in western Norway. 43
Figure 2.14. Landslide hazard map (landslide and rock fall hazards) for the western part of Norway based
on the simplified model 44
Figure 2.15. Snow avalanche hazard zones for Norway based on the avalanche hazard model 45
Figure 2.16. Map of Armenia 47
Figure 2.17. Comparison of global landslide hazard mapping in Armenia using NGI model
with the GEORISK landslide inventory 48
Figure 2.18. Major landslide events in Nepal during a 30 year time period (1971 2000) 49
Figure 2.19. Landslide hazard in Nepal predicted by the NGI model in this study 49
viii Natural Disaster Hotspots Case Studies
Figure 2.20. Population density map of Nepal in 1995. 50
Figure 2.21. Landslide hazard in Georgia predicted by the model developed in this study 52
Figure 2.22. Snow avalanche hazard in Georgia predicted by the model developed in this study 53
Figure 2.23. Observed landslides in Sri Lanka between 1947 and 2003 and prediction of landslide
hazard in Sri Lanka by the model developed in this study. 54
Figure 2.24. Historical landslide data in Jamaica 55
Figure 2.25. Prediction of landslide hazard in Jamaica with the model developed in this study 55
Figure 2.26. Global hotspot landslide hazard zonation for the world 56
Figure 2.27. Global hotspot landslide hazard zonation for Central Asia and the Middle East 58
Figure 2.28. Global hotspot landslide hazard zonation for Central American and Caribbean countries 59
Figure 2.29. Hotspot landslide risk zonation for Central America and Jamaica 61
Figure 2.30. Hotspot landslide risk zonation for Central Asia 62
Figure 2.31. Global hotspot snow avalanche hazard zonation for Central Asia 63
Figure 2.A.I. Distribution of risk utilizing a vulnerability proxy in Central America 69
Figure 2.A.2. Distribution of risk using a vulnerability proxy in South America 70
Figure 2.A.3. Distribution of risk utilizing a vulnerability proxy in Central Asia 71
Figure 2.A.4. Transformation for variables ranging between 0 and 1 73
Figure 2.A.5. Predicted killed versus observed for landslide 74
Figure 3.1. Areas in the southwest Netherlands flooded by the 1953 storm surge, February 1, 1953
(from Edwards 1953) 81
Figure 3.2. A simplified reconstruction of the November 1970 storm surge in Bangladesh. 82
Figure 3.3. Areas in Tokyo that are below normal high water and surge levels with and without a 1 m
rise in sea level. 83
Figure 3.4. Coasts affected by tropical cyclones 84
Figure 3.5. People at risk (that is, people potentially flooded) versus people in the flood hazard zone
in 1990 for 20 global regions. 88
Figure 3.6. People at risk (that is, people potentially flooded) versus people in the flood hazard zone
in the 2080s for 20 global regions. 91
Figure 3.7. Deaths by major hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons (MC) and extra tropical storms (ETS)
from 1700 to 2000. 94
Figure 3.8. Number of significant events based on two thresholds of deaths: 50,000 deaths,
and 20,000 deaths, as well as all events ( l,000 deaths) 94
Figure 3.9. Annual deaths due to surges, averaged over 50 year periods using the data in
Table 3.8 95
Figure 3.10. Deaths per event for hurricanes making landfall in the United States 96
Figure 3.11. Flooding of the East Coast of England during the 1953 storm surge 100
Figure 3.12. Deaths per surge event in Bangladesh from 1800 to 2000 using the data in Table 3.9. 102
Figure 3.13. Surges on the U.S. Gulf and East Coast. Relative storm surge potential (a), and surge graphs
for six Atlantic coast locations (b), the hurricane of September 14 15, 1944. 103
Figure 3.14. Subsidence from the 1920s to the 1990s in Shanghai, China 104
Figure 4.1. The district boundaries of Sri Lanka are shown over the topography 110
Figure 4.2.a. The average annual rainfall climatology estimated based on data from 284 stations in the
period between 1960 and 1990. Homogenous climatological regions as proposed by
Puvaneswaran and Smithson (1993) are overlaid. Ill
Contents ix
Figure 4.2.b. The average monthly rainfall between 1869 and 1998 for Sri Lanka 112
Figure 4.3. The density of population in each of the 323 Divisional Secretarial Divisions based
on data from the census of 2001 114
Figure 4.4. The food insecurity index of Divisional Secretariat Divisions (DSDs) as estimated by
the World Food Programme 115
Figure 4.5.a. Sectoral breakdown of the GDP for 2001 117
Figure 4.5.b. Sectoral breakdown of the labor force for 2001 117
Figure 4.6. The gross domestic product (GDP) by province for 1995 118
Figure 4.7. The estimate of industrial output in the districts in 1995 119
Figure 4.8. Infrastructure density index estimated for each district, as described in the text 121
Figure 4.9. The drought hazard was estimated using a modified WASP index. 122
Figure 4.10. Drought disaster incidence frequency was constructed by aggregating the numbers of
droughts that have been recorded in each district. 123
Figure 4.11. The flood hazard estimate based on the frequency of months of extreme rainfall using data
between 1960 and 2000. 124
Figure 4.12. Frequency map of flood disaster incidence created by aggregating the numbers of floods
recorded in each district between 1957 and 1995. 125
Figure 4.13. EM DAT data on floods from 1975 to 2001 were used to estimate the monthly frequency
of floods in the Western Slopes and Eastern Slopes regions. 127
Figure 4.14. A landslide hazard risk index was estimated based on frequency of incidence. 128
Figure 4.15. The storm and cyclone tracks for the last 100 years were used to create a cyclone hazard
risk map. 129
Figure 4.16. The monthly count of storms and cyclones between 1887 and 2000 130
Figure 4.17. Multihazard index constructed by aggregating the hazard indices and scaling the
result to range between 0 and 100 131
Figure 4.18. Multihazard risk estimated by weighting each hazard index by its frequency from 1948
to 1992 and rescaling the result to range from 0 to 100. 132
Figure 4.19. Multihazard risk estimated by weighting each hazard index by incidence frequency. 133
Figure 4.20. Multihazard risk estimated by weighting each hazard index by the associated relief
expenditure between 1948 1992. 134
Figure 5.1. Regional elevation map of Caracas and Vargas State 139
Figure 5.2. Map of the Petare barrio of Caracas, illustrating the dual nature of the city. On the left is
the open spacing of the planned, formal city. On the right are the densely packed
squatter barrios of the informal city. 140
Figure 5.3. An example of the multihazard map produced by the Urban Planning studio. 145
Figure 5.4. Reserved open space in the Caracas Valley. 147
Figure 5.5. Hospitals, police stations, and fire stations in the Caracas Valley 147
Figure 5.6. Proposed interventions in a section of Petare to improve disaster preparedness with the
allocation of reserved space 148
Figure 5.7. The Caracas water supply system, showing key infrastructure crossing fault lines 150
Figure 5.8. Seismic hazard affecting the city s transportation network. 152
Figure 5.9. Debris flows affecting the city s transportation network. 153
Figure 5.10. Flood hazard affecting the city s transportation network. The main east west thoroughfare
through the city is paralleled by the main, channelized river. 154
x Natural Disaster Hotspots Case Studies
Figure 6.1. Location map of Tana River basin in Kenya with the river gauging stations 166
Figure 6.2. Location map of the Tana River and Garissa Districts with coverage of the Tana River
basin in the Garissa District 168
Figure 6.3. Rainfall for selected stations during El Nino 1997 98 170
Figure 6.4. Data used in the creation of the DEM for flood hazard mapping. 171
Figure 6.5. Variability of river stages at Garissa Town (1933 2001) with special focus on El Nino
1997 98 heights 172
Figure 6.6. Stream flow modeling at Garissa (1995 1999) 173
Figure 6.7. Flood hazard map for the 1961 flood (the case of a severe flood before construction
of the dams) 176
Figure 6.8. Flood hazard map for the El Nino 1997/98 flood (a worst case scenario after the
construction of the dams) 177
Figure 6.9. (a) Livelihood zones overlaid on El Nino floods case 178
Figure 6.9. (b) Livelihood zones overlaid on El Nino floods case 178
Figure 6.10. Livelihood zones overlaid on El Nino flood cases 180
Figure 6.11. Impacts of floods on market prices and livestock: (a) commodity prices (b) livestock
losses 181
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| id | DE-604.BV019800149 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T20:06:25Z |
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| isbn | 0821359304 9780821359303 0821359312 |
| language | English |
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| physical | XII, 132 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
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| publisher | World Bank |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Disaster risk management series |
| series2 | Disaster risk management series |
| spelling | Natural disaster hotspots a global risk analysis by Maxx Dilley ... Washington, D.C. World Bank 2005 XII, 132 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Disaster risk management series 5 Administração de risco ambiental larpcal Catastrophe naturelle rasuqam Catastrophes naturelles - Évaluation du risque Desastres ambientais larpcal Economische problemen gtt Impact économique rasuqam Milieux géographiques dangereux - Évaluation du risque Mortalité rasuqam Natuurrampen gtt Risicoanalyse gtt Sterfte gtt Zone à risque rasuqam Évaluation des risques rasuqam aNatural disasters xRisk assessment aHazardous geographic environments xRisk assessment Dilley, Maxx Sonstige oth Disaster risk management series 5 (DE-604)BV013964974 5 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=013125731&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Natural disaster hotspots a global risk analysis Disaster risk management series Administração de risco ambiental larpcal Catastrophe naturelle rasuqam Catastrophes naturelles - Évaluation du risque Desastres ambientais larpcal Economische problemen gtt Impact économique rasuqam Milieux géographiques dangereux - Évaluation du risque Mortalité rasuqam Natuurrampen gtt Risicoanalyse gtt Sterfte gtt Zone à risque rasuqam Évaluation des risques rasuqam aNatural disasters xRisk assessment aHazardous geographic environments xRisk assessment |
| title | Natural disaster hotspots a global risk analysis |
| title_auth | Natural disaster hotspots a global risk analysis |
| title_exact_search | Natural disaster hotspots a global risk analysis |
| title_full | Natural disaster hotspots a global risk analysis by Maxx Dilley ... |
| title_fullStr | Natural disaster hotspots a global risk analysis by Maxx Dilley ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Natural disaster hotspots a global risk analysis by Maxx Dilley ... |
| title_short | Natural disaster hotspots |
| title_sort | natural disaster hotspots a global risk analysis |
| title_sub | a global risk analysis |
| topic | Administração de risco ambiental larpcal Catastrophe naturelle rasuqam Catastrophes naturelles - Évaluation du risque Desastres ambientais larpcal Economische problemen gtt Impact économique rasuqam Milieux géographiques dangereux - Évaluation du risque Mortalité rasuqam Natuurrampen gtt Risicoanalyse gtt Sterfte gtt Zone à risque rasuqam Évaluation des risques rasuqam aNatural disasters xRisk assessment aHazardous geographic environments xRisk assessment |
| topic_facet | Administração de risco ambiental Catastrophe naturelle Catastrophes naturelles - Évaluation du risque Desastres ambientais Economische problemen Impact économique Milieux géographiques dangereux - Évaluation du risque Mortalité Natuurrampen Risicoanalyse Sterfte Zone à risque Évaluation des risques aNatural disasters xRisk assessment aHazardous geographic environments xRisk assessment |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=013125731&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV013964974 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dilleymaxx naturaldisasterhotspotsaglobalriskanalysis |