Agricultural policies and farm structures: agent-based modelling and application to EU-policy reform
Gespeichert in:
1. Verfasser: | |
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Format: | Abschlussarbeit Buch |
Sprache: | English German |
Veröffentlicht: |
Halle (Saale)
IAMO
2004
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Schriftenreihe: | Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and Eastern Europe
30 |
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Volltext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
Beschreibung: | Weitere Ausgabe: Auch im Internet unter http://www.iamo.de/dok/sr_vol30.pdf verfügbar |
Beschreibung: | XV, 267 S. Ill., graph. Darst. |
ISBN: | 3938584017 |
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adam_text | AGRICULTURAL POLICIES AND FARM STRUCTURES AGENT-BASED MODELLING AND
APPLICATION TO EU-POLICY REFORM BY KATHRIN HAPPE IAMO 2004 TABLE OF
CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES IX LIST OF TABLES XIII 1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 PROBLEM ASSESSMENT 1 1.1.1 THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN
STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT 1 1.1.2 THE SCOPE FOR POLICY REFORM 3 1.1.3
CONSEQUENCES FOR MODELLING 4 1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY AND
METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH 5 1.3 STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY 6 PART I
AGENT-BASED MODELLING OF REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURES 9 2
AGENT-BASED MODELLING: MOTIVATION, DEFINITION, AND APPLICATIONS .. 11
2.1 INTRODUCTION 11 2.2 MOTIVATION 12 2.2.1 GENERAL: AGENT-BASED
MODELLING OF ECONOMIC SYSTEMS 12 2.2.2 SPECIFIC: AGENT-BASED MODELLING
IN AGRICULTURAL POLICY ANALYSIS AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE ANALYSIS 13 2.3
AGENTS AND AGENT-BASED SYSTEMS 16 2.3.1 DEFINITION 16 2.3.2 ORIGINS OF
AGENT-BASED SYSTEMS 18 2.3.3 MODELLING PROCEDURE 18 2.4 SELECTED
FEATURES OF ABS APPLIED TO ECONOMIC SYSTEMS 19 2.4.1 FLEXIBILITY WITH
REGARD TO ASSUMPTIONS 19 2.4.2 COMPLEX STRUCTURES AND EMERGENCE 21 2.4.3
SPATIAL REPRESENTATION 21 2.5 EXAMPLES OF APPLICATIONS OF AGENT-BASED
SYSTEMS 22 2.5.1 PROBLEM SOLVING 22 2.5.1.1 DISTRIBUTED PROBLEM SOLVING
22 2.5.1.2 SOLUTION RIVALRY 24 IV TABLE OF CONTENTS 2.5.2 SOCIAL SYSTEMS
ANALYSIS 24 2.5.2.1 RULE-BASED BEHAVIOUR 24 2.5.2.2 NORMATIVE AGENT
BEHAVIOUR 25 2.5.2.3 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 25 2.5.2.4 HUMAN AGENTS AND
ROLE-PLAYING GAMES 26 2.5.3 LAND-USE/LAND-COVER CHANGE AND INTEGRATED
MODELLING 27 2.6 POTENTIAL CHALLENGES TO AGENT-BASED MODELLING 27 2.6.1
MODELLING THE CO-ORDINATION OF AGENTS 27 2.6.2 VERIFICATION AND
VALIDATION 29 THE AGRICULTURAL POLICY SIMULATOR (AGRIPOLIS) 31 3.1
INTRODUCTION 31 3.2 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 31 3.2.1 AGENTS INVOLVED 33
3.2.2 FARM AGENT ACTIONS AND BEHAVIOUR 34 3.2.3 THE SPATIAL,
TECHNOLOGICAL AND POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT 35 3.2.4 AGENT INTERACTIONS 36
3.2.5 CENTRAL MODELLING ASSUMPTIONS 38 3.3 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL 38 3.3.1 OBJECT-ORIENTED STRUCTURE AND DESIGN 38 3.3.2
MODEL DYNAMICS 41 3.4 INPUT AND OUTPUT OBJECTS 43 3.4.1 PRODUCTION
FACTORS 44 3.4.1.1 LAND 44 3.4.1.2 LABOUR 44 3.4.1.3 CAPITAL 45 3.4.2
PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES 47 3.5 THE FARM AGENT 48 3.5.1 BEHAVIOURAL
FOUNDATION 48 3.5.1.1 FARM PLANNING 48 3.5.1.2 GENERAL REMARKS ABOUT
EXPECTATION FORMATION 50 3.5.1.3 PRICE EXPECTATIONS 51 3.5.1.4 COST
EXPECTATIONS 51 3.5.1.5 EXPECTATIONS ABOUT POLICY CHANGES 53 3.5.1.6
MANAGERIAL ABILITY 53 3.5.2 FARM ACTIONS 54 3.5.2.1 RENTING LAND 55
3.5.2.2 INVESTMENT 58 3.5.2.3 PRODUCTION 59 3.5.2.4 FARM ACCOUNTING 60
3.6 FACTOR MARKET AGENTS 62 3.6.1 LAND AUCTIONEER 62 TABLE OF CONTENTS
3.6.2 PRODUCT MARKET 64 3.7 DATA INPUT, RESULTS PREPARATION AND DATA
OUTPUT 65 PART II APPLYING AND TESTING AGRIPOLIS 67 4 ADAPTING AGRIPOLIS
TO THE REGION HOHENLOHE 69 4.1 INTRODUCTION 69 4.2 STUDY REGION
HOHENLOHE ! . 70 4.3 REPRESENTING HOHENLOHE S AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURE
BASED ON TYPICAL FARMS 72 4.4 PRODUCT PRICES 76 4.5 PRODUCTION
ACTIVITIES 76 4.5.1 ARABLE AND GRASSLAND PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES 77 4.5.2
LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES 78 4.5.3 ADDITIONAL ACTIVITIES 79 4.6
INVESTMENTS 80 4.7 INITIALISING AGRIPOLIS 83 4.8 FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS 86
4.9 DEFINITION OF THE REFERENCE SCENARIO 87 5 EXPLORING THE BEHAVIOUR OF
AGRIPOLIS 91 5.1 INTRODUCTION 91 5.2 DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS 92 5.2.1
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND DATA OUTPUT 94 5.2.1.1 EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN 94
5.2.1.2 DATA OUTPUT 96 5.2.1.3 ANALYSIS OF RESULTS AND DEFINITION OF THE
METAMODEL 97 5.2.2 RESULTS 98 5.2.2.1 GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS 98 5.2.2.2
METAMODEL ANALYSIS 103 5.2.3 DISCUSSION 105 5.3 IMPACT OF RANDOM
INITIALISATIONS 106 5.3.1 EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND DATA OUTPUT 106 5.3.2
RESULTS 106 5.3.3 DISCUSSION 108 5.4 STRUCTURAL IMPACT OF HETEROGENEOUS
MANAGERIAL ABILITY 109 5.4.1 EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND DATA OUTPUT 109
5.4.2 RESULTS ILL VI TABLE OF CONTENTS 5.4.2.1 HOMOGENEOUS VS.
HETEROGENEOUS MANAGERIAL ABILITY 111 5.4.2.2 HIGH MANAGERIAL ABILITY VS.
LOW MANAGERIAL ABILITY 115 5.4.3 DISCUSSION 116 5.5 CONCLUSIONS FROM THE
ANALYSES 117 PART III POLICY ANALYSIS 119 6 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND
ASSUMPTIONS FOR MEASURING POLICY IMPACTS 121 6.1 INTRODUCTION 121 6.2
PERFORMANCE INDICATORS 122 6.3 MEASURING PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY OF
AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURES 123 6.3.1 STARTING POINTS FOR MEASURING
EFFICIENCY 123 6.3.2 TRADITIONAL EFFICIENCY MEASURES OF INDIVIDUAL FIRMS
125 6.3.3 NON-PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF TECHNICAL EFFICIENCIES 128 6.3.4
STRUCTURAL EFFICIENCY OF A GROUP OF FIRMS 129 6.3.5 APPLICATION TO DATA
SIMULATED FOR HOHENLOHE 131 6.3.5.1 INPUTS 131 6.3.5.2 OUTPUT 132
6.3.5.3 ASSUMPTIONS 133 6.3.6 MEASURING OVERALL ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY 133
6.4 OTHER ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES 134 6.4.1 KERNEL DENSITY ESTIMATION 134
6.4.2 THE LORENZ CURVE AND THE GINI INDEX 135 6.5 GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS
UNDERLYING THE POLICY ANALYSES 136 7 RETIREMENT PAYMENT, PHASING OUT,
AND A DECOUPLED SINGLE FARM PAYMENT 139 7.1 INTRODUCTION AND POLICIES
ANALYSED 139 7.2 SUMMARY OF RESULTS 142 7.3 STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENTS
FOLLOWING A POLICY CHANGE 144 7.3.1 FARM SIZE DYNAMICS 144 7.3.2
ECONOMIC FARM SIZE 151 7.3.3 IMPACTS ON PRODUCTION AND FACTOR INPUT 153
7.4 EFFICIENCY IMPLICATIONS 159 7.4.1 ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL AND
STRUCTURAL EFFICIENCY 160 7.4.2 ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY 165 7.4.3 IMPACT ON
RENTAL PRICES 170 7.5 INCOME IMPLICATIONS 173 TABLE OF CONTENTS VII
7.5.1 INCOME DIFFERENCES BY SIZE AND FARM TYPE 175 7.5.2 IMPACT ON
INCOME DISTRIBUTION 178 7.5.3 OFF-FARM INCOME SOURCES 180 7.6 GOVERNMENT
OUTLAYS 182 7.7 SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION OF RESULTS 184 7.7.1 AGRICULTURAL
STRUCTURE 184 7.7.2 EFFICIENCY . 187 7.7.3 INCOME 187 7.7.4 GENERAL 188
8 DECOUPLING DIRECT PAYMENTS 189 8.1 INTRODUCTION 189 8.2 POLICIES
CONSIDERED 191 8.3 IMPACT ON FARM SIZE 194 8.4 IMPACT ON PRODUCTION 197
8.5 EFFICIENCY IMPLICATIONS 199 8.5.1 ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL AND
STRUCTURAL EFFICIENCY 200 8.5.2 ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY 204 8.6 IMPLICATIONS
FOR INCOMES AND FARM SPECIALISATION 210 8.6.1 IMPACT ON FARM INCOMES 210
8.6.2 FARM SPECIALISATION 212 8.7 REDISTRIBUTION EFFECTS OF A SINGLE
AREA PAYMENT 214 8.8 GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS AND SOCIAL EFFICIENCY 216 8.9
SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION OF RESULTS 218 8.9.1 POLICIES 220 8.9.2 WINNERS
AND LOSERS 221 9 GENERAL DISCUSSION 223 9.1 INTRODUCTION 223 9.2
METHODOLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS 224 9.2.1 AGRIPOLIS 224 9.2.2 DESIGN OF
EXPERIMENTS 226 9.2.3 DEA-MODEL AND STRUCTURAL EFFICIENCIES 226 9.3 DATA
ISSUES 227 9.4 POLICY IMPLICATIONS 228 9.5 IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER
RESEARCH 231 SUMMARY 233 VIII TABLE OF CONTENTS ZUSAMMENFASSUNG 236
REFERENCES 241 APPENDIX 255 A.I DEFINITION OF LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION
ACTIVITIES 255 A.2 AGRIPOLIS DATA OUTPUT 258 A.3 BOOTSTRAP PROCEDURE TO
DERIVE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS ON STRUCTURAL EFFICIENCY MEASURES 259 A.4
THE TEST FOR EQUALITY OF STRUCTURAL AND MEAN EFFICIENCIES OF TWO
SUB-GROUPS 261 A.5 DEA-MODEL INPUTS AND OUTPUT 262 A.6 ADDITIONAL TABLES
AND FIGURES OF CHAPTER 7 AND CHAPTER 8 264 A.7 ENSURING THE MANAGEMENT
OF AGRICULTURAL AREA 266
|
any_adam_object | 1 |
author | Happe, Kathrin 1974- |
author_GND | (DE-588)124782337 |
author_facet | Happe, Kathrin 1974- |
author_role | aut |
author_sort | Happe, Kathrin 1974- |
author_variant | k h kh |
building | Verbundindex |
bvnumber | BV019779028 |
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ctrlnum | (OCoLC)163234892 (DE-599)BVBBV019779028 |
dewey-full | 330 |
dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
dewey-ones | 330 - Economics |
dewey-raw | 330 |
dewey-search | 330 |
dewey-sort | 3330 |
dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
discipline | Agrarwissenschaft Agrar-/Forst-/Ernährungs-/Haushaltswissenschaft / Gartenbau Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
format | Thesis Book |
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series | Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and Eastern Europe |
series2 | Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and Eastern Europe |
spelling | Happe, Kathrin 1974- Verfasser (DE-588)124782337 aut Agricultural policies and farm structures agent-based modelling and application to EU-policy reform Kathrin Happe ; Hrsg. Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Mittel- und Osteuropa Halle (Saale) IAMO 2004 XV, 267 S. Ill., graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and Eastern Europe 30 Weitere Ausgabe: Auch im Internet unter http://www.iamo.de/dok/sr_vol30.pdf verfügbar Zugl.: Universität Hohenheim, Institut für Landwirtschaftliche Betriebslehre, Diss., 2004 Agrarpolitik (DE-588)4000771-6 gnd rswk-swf Mehragentensystem (DE-588)4389058-1 gnd rswk-swf Strukturwandel (DE-588)4058136-6 gnd rswk-swf Ländlicher Raum (DE-588)4034026-0 gnd rswk-swf Baden-Württemberg (DE-588)4004176-1 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Baden-Württemberg (DE-588)4004176-1 g Ländlicher Raum (DE-588)4034026-0 s Strukturwandel (DE-588)4058136-6 s Agrarpolitik (DE-588)4000771-6 s Mehragentensystem (DE-588)4389058-1 s b DE-604 Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Mittel- und Osteuropa Sonstige (DE-588)2167034-1 oth Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and Eastern Europe 30 (DE-604)BV012285896 30 http://www.iamo.de/dok/sr_vol30.pdf kostenfrei Volltext GBV Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=013105025&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
spellingShingle | Happe, Kathrin 1974- Agricultural policies and farm structures agent-based modelling and application to EU-policy reform Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and Eastern Europe Agrarpolitik (DE-588)4000771-6 gnd Mehragentensystem (DE-588)4389058-1 gnd Strukturwandel (DE-588)4058136-6 gnd Ländlicher Raum (DE-588)4034026-0 gnd |
subject_GND | (DE-588)4000771-6 (DE-588)4389058-1 (DE-588)4058136-6 (DE-588)4034026-0 (DE-588)4004176-1 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
title | Agricultural policies and farm structures agent-based modelling and application to EU-policy reform |
title_auth | Agricultural policies and farm structures agent-based modelling and application to EU-policy reform |
title_exact_search | Agricultural policies and farm structures agent-based modelling and application to EU-policy reform |
title_full | Agricultural policies and farm structures agent-based modelling and application to EU-policy reform Kathrin Happe ; Hrsg. Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Mittel- und Osteuropa |
title_fullStr | Agricultural policies and farm structures agent-based modelling and application to EU-policy reform Kathrin Happe ; Hrsg. Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Mittel- und Osteuropa |
title_full_unstemmed | Agricultural policies and farm structures agent-based modelling and application to EU-policy reform Kathrin Happe ; Hrsg. Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Mittel- und Osteuropa |
title_short | Agricultural policies and farm structures |
title_sort | agricultural policies and farm structures agent based modelling and application to eu policy reform |
title_sub | agent-based modelling and application to EU-policy reform |
topic | Agrarpolitik (DE-588)4000771-6 gnd Mehragentensystem (DE-588)4389058-1 gnd Strukturwandel (DE-588)4058136-6 gnd Ländlicher Raum (DE-588)4034026-0 gnd |
topic_facet | Agrarpolitik Mehragentensystem Strukturwandel Ländlicher Raum Baden-Württemberg Hochschulschrift |
url | http://www.iamo.de/dok/sr_vol30.pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=013105025&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
volume_link | (DE-604)BV012285896 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT happekathrin agriculturalpoliciesandfarmstructuresagentbasedmodellingandapplicationtoeupolicyreform AT institutfuragrarentwicklunginmittelundosteuropa agriculturalpoliciesandfarmstructuresagentbasedmodellingandapplicationtoeupolicyreform |