The economics of adjustment and growth:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, Mass. [u.a.]
Harvard Univ. Press
2004
|
| Ausgabe: | 2. ed. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XVII, 765 S. |
| ISBN: | 9780674015784 0674015789 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The economics of adjustment and growth |c Pierre-Richard Agénor |
| 250 | |a 2. ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Cambridge, Mass. [u.a.] |b Harvard Univ. Press |c 2004 | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Wirtschaftsentwicklung | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Wirtschaftspolitik | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Economic development | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Structural adjustment (Economic policy) | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Titel: The economics of adjustment and growth
Autor: Agénor, Pierre-Richard
Jahr: 2004
Contents
Acknowledgments xviii
Introduction and Overview 1
1 Budget Constraints and Aggregate Accounts 10
1.1 Production, Income, and Expenditure 11
1.2 A Consistency Accounting Matrix 11
1.2.1 Current Account Transactions 14
1.2.2 Capital Account Transactions 17
1.3 Identities and Budget Constraints 18
1.3.1 Gross Domestic Product and Absorption 18
1.3.2 The Government Budget Constraint 19
1.3.3 The Private Sector Budget Constraint 20
1.3.4 The External Sector Budget Constraint 20
1.3.5 The Balance Sheet of the Financial System 21
1.3.6 The Savings-Investment Balance 22
1.4 Social Accounting Matrices 23
1.4.1 Activity, Commodity, and Factor Accounts 23
1.4.2 Institutions and the Capital Account 25
1.4.3 The Rest-of-the-World Account 25
1.4.4 SAMs and Economy-wide Models 26
1.5 Summary 27
viii Contents
2 Consumption, Saving, and Investment 28
2.1 Consumption and Saving 30
2.1.1 The Permanent Income Hypothesis 30
2.1.2 The Life-Cycle Model 33
The Basic Framework 34
Age and the Dependency Ratio 38
2.1.3 Other Determinants 40
Income Levels and Income Uncertainty 40
Intergenerational Links 41
Liquidity Constraints 41
Inflation and Macroeconomic Stability 43
Government Saving 43
Expectations, Taxation, and Debt 46
Social Security, Pensions, and Insurance 46
Changes in the Terms of Trade 47
Financial Deepening 49
Household and Corporate Saving 49
2.1.4 Empirical Evidence 49
2.2 Investment 53
2.2.1 The Flexible Accelerator 53
2.2.2 The User Costof Capital 54
2.2.3 Uncertainty and Irreversibility 56
2.2.4 Other Determinants 60
Credit Rationing 60
Foreign Exchange Constraint 61
The Real Exchange Rate 61
Public Investment 61
Macroeconomic Instability 62
The Debt Bürden Effect 62
2.2.5 Empirical Evidence 63
2.3 Summary 67
Appendix?Income Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving 71
3 Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and the
Current Account 73
3.1 Structureof Public Finances 74
3.1.1 Conventional Sources of Revenue and Expenditure 74
3.1.2 Seigniorage and Inflationary Finance 78
3.1.3 Quasi-Fiscal Activities and Contingent Liabilities 79
Contents ix
3.2 The Government Budget Constraint 83
3.3 Assessing the Stance of Fiscal Policy 87
3.4 Deficit Rules, Budget Ceilings, and Fiscal Transparency 90
3.5 Fiscal Imbalances and External Deficits 93
3.6 Consistency and Sustainability 93
3.6.1 A Consistency Framework 93
3.6.2 Fiscal and External Sustainability 101
3.7 Sustainability and Solvency Constraints 102
3.8 Commodity Price Shocks and Deficits 106
3.9 Can Fiscal Austerity Be Expansionary? 107
3.10 Summary 109
4 The Financial System and Monetary Policy 114
4.1 The Financial System 115
4.1.1 Financial Repression 115
4.1.2 Banks and Financial Intermediation 118
4.2 Money Demand 121
4.3 Indirect Instruments of Monetary Policy 123
4.4 Credit Rationing 125
4.5 The Transmission of Monetary Policy 130
4.5.1 Interest Rate Effects 135
4.5.2 Exchange Rate Effects 136
4.5.3 Asset Prices and Balance Sheet Effects 137
Net Worth and the Finance Premium 138
The Financial Accelerator 138
4.5.4 Credit Availability Effects 140
4.5.5 TheRoleofExpectations 141
4.6 Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting 141
4.6.1 Strict Inflation Targeting 142
4.6.2 Policy Trade-offs and Flexible Inflation Targeting 146
4.6.3 Comparison with Intermediate Target Strategies 149
Monetary vs. Inflation Targeting 149
Exchange Rate vs. Inflation Targeting 150
4.6.4 Requirements for Inflation Targeting 151
4.7 Monetary Policy in a Dollarized Economy 154
4.7.1 Persistence of Dollarization 154
4.7.2 Implications of Dollarization 156
4.8 Summary 157
x Contents
Appendix?Inflation Targeting with Forward-Looking
Expectations 162
5 Exchange Rate Regimes 166
5.1 The Natureof Exchange Rate Regimes 166
5.1.1 Pegged Exchange Rate Regimes 167
5.1.2 Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes 169
5.1.3 Band Regimes 169
5.1.4 Multiple Exchange Rate Regimes 170
5.2 Evidence on Exchange Rate Regimes 170
5.2.1 General Trends 171
5.2.2 Exchange Rate Bands 173
5.3 Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime 176
5.3.1 Some Conceptual Issues 176
5.3.2 The Evidence 178
5.3.3 A Practical Guide 179
5.4 Trade-offs and Exchange Rate Credibility 181
5.5 Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance 188
5.5.1 Measuring Competitiveness 189
5.5.2 Devaluation and the Trade Balance 191
5.6 Devaluation with Imported Inputs 197
5.7 Summary 204
6 Inflation and Disinflation Programs 207
6.1 Sourcesof Inflation 207
6.1.1 Hyperinflation and Chronic Inflation 208
6.1.2 Fiscal Deficits, Seigniorage, and Inflation 210
6.1.3 Other Sourcesof Chronic Inflation 216
Wage Inertia 216
Exchange Rates and the Terms of Trade 217
The Frequency of Price Adjustment 218
Food Prices 218
Time Inconsistency and the Inflation Bias 219
6.2 Nominal Anchors in Disinflation 221
6.2.1 Controllability and Effectiveness 222
6.2.2 Adjustment Paths and Relative Costs 222
6.2.3 Credibility, Fiscal Commitment, and Flexibility 225
6.2.4 The Flexibilization Stage 226
Contents xi
6.3 Disinflation: The Roleof Credibility 227
6.3.1 Sourcesof Credibility Problems 227
6.3.2 Enhancing Credibility 228
Big Bang and Gradualism 229
Central Bank Independence 229
Price Controls 231
Aid as a Commitment Mechanism 233
6.4 Two Stabilization Experiments 234
6.4.1 Egypt, 1992-97 234
6.4.2 Uganda, 1987-95 238
6.5 Summary 241
Appendix?Inflation Persistence and Policy Credibility 245
7 Capital Inflows: Causes and Policy Responses 247
7.1 Capital Flows: Recent Evidence 248
7.2 How Volatile Are Capital Flows? 253
7.3 Domestic and External Factors 254
7.4 Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Inflows 256
7.5 External Shocks and Capital Flows 259
7.5.1 Households 260
7.5.2 Firms and the Labor Market 262
7.5.3 Commercial Banks 265
7.5.4 Government and the Central Bank 265
7.5.5 Equilibrium Conditions 266
The Money Market 266
The Credit Market 266
The Market for Home Goods 267
7.5.6 Graphical Solution 267
7.5.7 Rise in the World Interest Rate 270
7.6 Policy Responses to Capital Inflows 271
7.6.1 Sterilization 272
7.6.2 Exchange Rate Flexibility 275
7.6.3 Fiscal Adjustment 278
7.6.4 Capital Controls 279
Forms of Capital Controls 279
Pros and Cons of Capital Controls 281
7.6.5 Changes in Statutory Reserve Requirements 285
7.6.6 Other Policy Responses 285
xii Contents
7.7 Summary 286
Appendix?Measuring the Degree of Capital Mobility 290
8 Financial Crises and Financial Volatility 292
8.1 Sources of Exchange Rate Crises 293
8.1.1 Inconsistent Fundamentals 293
8.1.2 Rational Policymakers and Self-Fulfilling Crises 301
8.1.3 Third-Generation Models 311
8.2 Currency Crises: Three Case Studies 312
8.2.1 The 1994 Crisis of the Mexican Peso 312
8.2.2 The 1997 Thai Bäht Crisis 318
8.2.3 The 1999 Brazilian Real Crisis 324
8.3 Banking and Currency Crises 327
8.3.1 Causesof Banking Crises 327
8.3.2 Self-Fulfilling Bank Runs 328
8.3.3 Links between Currency and Banking Crises 331
8.3.4 Liquidity Crises in an Open Economy 332
8.4 Predicting Financial Crises 335
8.5 Financial Volatility: Sources and Effects 338
8.5.1 Volatility of Capital Flows 338
8.5.2 Herding Behavior and Contagion 339
8.5.3 The Tequila Effect and the Asia Crisis 340
8.6 Copirig with Financial Volatility 345
8.6.1 Macroeconomic Discipline 346
8.6.2 Information Disclosure 347
8.6.3 TheTobinTax 348
8.7 Summary 350
Appendix?The Mechanics of Speculative Attacks and
Interest Rate Defense 355
9 Policy Tools for Macroeconomic Analysis 359
9.1 Assessing Business Cycle Regularities 360
9.2 Financial Programming 363
9.2.1 The Polak Model 364
9.2.2 An Extended Framework 367
9.3 The World Bank RMSM Model 372
9.4 The Merged Model and RMSM-X 380
9.4.1 The Merged IMF-World Bank Model 380
Contents xiii
9.4.2 The RMSM-X Framework 386
9.5 Three-Gap Models 389
9.6 The 1-2-3 Model 394
9.6.1 The Minimal Setup 395
9.6.2 An Adverse Terms-of-Trade Shock 400
9.6.3 Investment, Saving, and the Government 402
9.7 Lags and the Adjustment Process 405
9.8 Summary 406
Appendix?Money Demand and Cointegration 408
10 Growth, Poverty, and Inequality: Some Basic Facts 410
10.1 ALong-Run Perspective 411
10.2 The Power of Compounding 414
10.2.1 Growth and Standards ofLiving 414
10.2.2 How Fast Do Economies Catch Up? 415
10.3 Some Basic Facts 416
10.3.1 Output Growth, Population, and Fertility 416
10.3.2 Saving, Investment, and Growth 417
10.3.3 Growth and Poverty 423
10.3.4 Inequality, Growth, and Development 425
The Kuznets Curve 427
Education and Income Distribution 429
10.3.5 Trade, Inflation, and Financial Deepening 430
10.4 Summary 434
Appendix?Common Measures of Poverty and Inequality 436
11 Growth and Technological Progress:
The Solow-Swan Model 439
11.1 Basic Structure and Assumptions 439
11.2 The Dynamics of Capital and Output 444
11.3 A Digression on Low-Income Traps 448
11.4 Population, Savings, and Output 449
11.5 The Speed of Adjustment 453
11.6 Model Predictions and Empirical Facts 456
11.7 Summary 459
Appendix?Dynamics of k, the Output Effect of s,
and the Speed of Adjustment 460
xiv Contents
12 Knowledge, Human Capital, and
Endogenous Growth 463
12.1 The Accumulation of Knowledge 464
12.1.1 Knowledge as a By-Product: Learning by Doing 464
12.1.2 The Productionof Knowledge 471
12.2 Human Capital and Returns to Scale 473
12.2.1 The Mankiw-Romer-Weil Model 473
12.2.2 The AK Model 479
12.3 Human Capital and Public Policy 480
12.4 Other Determinants of Growth 481
12.4.1 Fiscal Policy 481
Government Spending 482
The Dual Effects of Taxation 482
Budget Deficits and Growth 488
12.4.2 Inflation and Macroeconomic Stability 488
12.4.3 Trade and International Financial Openness 490
12.4.4 Financial Development 496
12.4.5 Political Factors and Income Inequality 501
12.4.6 Institutions and the Allocation of Talent 503
12.5 Summary 505
Appendix?Determinants and Costs of Corruption 509
13 The Determinants of Economic Growth:
An Empirical Overview 511
13.1 Growth Accounting 511
13.2 The East Asian Miracle 515
13.3 Growth Regressions and Convergence 517
13.3.1 Diminishing Returns and Convergence 517
13.3.2 Convergence and Cross-Section Regressions 518
13.3.3 Testing the Mankiw-Romer-Weil Model 520
13.4 The Empirics of Growth 523
13.5 The Econometric Evidence: Overview 528
13.5.1 Saving and Physical and Human Capital 528
13.5.2 Fiscal Variables 530
13.5.3 Inflation and Macroeconomic Stability 531
13.5.4 Financial Factors 532
13.5.5 External Trade and Financial Openness 534
13.5.6 Political Variables and Income Inequality 538
Contents xv
13.6 Catching Up or Falling Behind? 539
13.7 Summary 541
Appendix?Growth Accounting with Increasing Returns 545
14 Trade and Labor Market Reforms 547
14.1 Trade Liberalization 548
14.1.1 The Gains from Trade 548
14.1.2 Recent Evidence on Trade Reforms 553
14.1.3 Trade Reform, Employment, and Wage Inequality 555
14.1.4 Obstacles to Trade Reform 560
14.2 Trade and Regional Integration 563
14.3 Reforming Labor Markets 568
14.3.1 Labor Markets in Developing Countries 568
Basic Structure 569
Employment Distribution and Unemployment 569
Wage Formation and Labor Market
Segmentation 570
Minimum Wages 570
Trade Unions and the Bargaining Process 571
14.3.2 Labor Market Reforms and Flexibility 573
14.4 Summary 576
Appendix?Reforming Price Incentives in Agriculture 580
15 Fiscal Adjustment and Financial Sector Reforms 582
15.1 Fiscal Adjustment 583
15.1.1 Reforming Tax Systems 583
The Excess Bürden of Taxation 583
Fighting Tax Evasion 585
Guidelines for Reform 588
15.1.2 Expenditure Control and Management 591
15.1.3 Civil Service Reform 592
15.1.4 Fiscal Decentralization 594
15.2 Pension Reform 595
15.2.1 Basic Features of Pension Systems 596
15.2.2 Pension Regimes and Saving: A Framework 597
15.2.3 Recent Evidence on Pension Reform 602
xvi Contents
15.3 Interest Rate Liberalization 604
15.3.1 A Simple Framework 604
15.3.2 Potential Pitfalls 608
15.4 Sourcesof Financial Fragility 610
15.4.1 The Nature of Banks Balance Sheets 610
15.4.2 Microeconomic and Institutional Failings 611
15.4.3 Moral Hazard and Perverse Incentives 611
15.4.4 Macroeconomic Instability 613
15.4.5 Premature Financial Liberalization 613
15.5 Strengthening Financial Systems 615
15.6 Summary 616
Appendix?Structural Policy Indices 619
16 Aid, External Debt, and Growth 621
16.1 The Effects of Foreign Aid 622
16.1.1 Aid Effectiveness and the Fungibüity Problem 623
16.1.2 Aid, Investment, and Growth 624
The Situation without Aid 624
The Effects ofAid on Investment 626
16.1.3 Aid and Growth: Cross-Country Evidence 631
16.2 Growth, Debt, and Fiscal Adjustment 632
16.3 The Debt Overhang and the Debt Laffer Curve 638
16.4 Measuring the Debt Bürden 642
16.4.1 Conventional and Present Value Indicators 642
16.4.2 Sustainability and External Solvency 644
16.5 Debt Rescheduling and Debt Relief 646
16.6 Summary 648
Appendix?The Theory of Stages in the Balance of Payments 651
17 Sequencing, Gradualism, and the Political
Economyof Adjustment 653
17.1 Stabilization and Structural Adjustment 654
17.2 The Order of Liberalization 655
17.2.1 Liberalization of External Accounts 656
17.2.2 Financial Reform and the Capital Account 658
Contents xvii
17.2.3 A Formal Framework 658
Analysis of Liberalization Policies 662
Financial Deregulation 663
Relaxation of Capital Controls 663
Trade Liberalization 664
17.3 Sequencing and Labor Market Reforms 665
17.4 Political Constraints and Reforms 665
17.4.1 Modeling Political Conflict 665
17.4.2 The Benefits of Crises 670
17.4.3 Political Acceptability and Sustainability 671
17.5 Shock Treatment or Gradual Approach? 677
17.6 Summary 680
Appendix?Calculating the Weifare Effects of Reform 682
References 685
Figure Credits 737
Index 739
|
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| geographic | Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Entwicklungsländer |
| id | DE-604.BV019417026 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T19:59:50Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780674015784 0674015789 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2004046556 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-012878796 |
| oclc_num | 845676794 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-703 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-20 DE-11 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-703 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-20 DE-11 DE-188 |
| physical | XVII, 765 S. |
| publishDate | 2004 |
| publishDateSearch | 2004 |
| publishDateSort | 2004 |
| publisher | Harvard Univ. Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Agénor, Pierre-Richard 1957- Verfasser (DE-588)12408009X aut The economics of adjustment and growth Pierre-Richard Agénor 2. ed. Cambridge, Mass. [u.a.] Harvard Univ. Press 2004 XVII, 765 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Economische groei gtt Economische politiek gtt Structurele aanpassing (ontwikkelingseconomie) gtt Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaftspolitik Economic development Structural adjustment (Economic policy) Strukturanpassungspolitik (DE-588)4261730-3 gnd rswk-swf Wachstumstheorie (DE-588)4128160-3 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 gnd rswk-swf Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 gnd rswk-swf Wachstumstheorie (DE-588)4128160-3 s DE-604 Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 g Strukturanpassungspolitik (DE-588)4261730-3 s Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 s HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=012878796&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Agénor, Pierre-Richard 1957- The economics of adjustment and growth Economische groei gtt Economische politiek gtt Structurele aanpassing (ontwikkelingseconomie) gtt Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaftspolitik Economic development Structural adjustment (Economic policy) Strukturanpassungspolitik (DE-588)4261730-3 gnd Wachstumstheorie (DE-588)4128160-3 gnd Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4261730-3 (DE-588)4128160-3 (DE-588)4066527-6 (DE-588)4014954-7 |
| title | The economics of adjustment and growth |
| title_auth | The economics of adjustment and growth |
| title_exact_search | The economics of adjustment and growth |
| title_full | The economics of adjustment and growth Pierre-Richard Agénor |
| title_fullStr | The economics of adjustment and growth Pierre-Richard Agénor |
| title_full_unstemmed | The economics of adjustment and growth Pierre-Richard Agénor |
| title_short | The economics of adjustment and growth |
| title_sort | the economics of adjustment and growth |
| topic | Economische groei gtt Economische politiek gtt Structurele aanpassing (ontwikkelingseconomie) gtt Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaftspolitik Economic development Structural adjustment (Economic policy) Strukturanpassungspolitik (DE-588)4261730-3 gnd Wachstumstheorie (DE-588)4128160-3 gnd Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Economische groei Economische politiek Structurele aanpassing (ontwikkelingseconomie) Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaftspolitik Economic development Structural adjustment (Economic policy) Strukturanpassungspolitik Wachstumstheorie Wirtschaftswachstum Entwicklungsländer |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=012878796&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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