Hollywood economics: how extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
London [u.a.]
Routledge
2004
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schriftenreihe: | Contemporary political economy series
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVII, 308 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0415312604 0415312612 |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804132794872365056 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Hollywood Economics
How extreme uncertainty shapes
the film industry
Arthur De Vany
IJ Routledge
jj % Taylor amp; Francis Croup
LONDON AND NEW YORK
Contents
list of figures xi
List of tables xiii
Acknowledgments xvi
Prologue 1
PARTI
Box-office champions, chaotic dynamics and herding 7
1 The market for motion pictures: rank, revenue and survival 11
1 1 Introduction 11
1 2 The motion picture exhibition market 12
1 3 Evolutionary survival tournaments 14
1 4 The Variety data 15
1 5 The survival model 18
1 6 Empirical results 19
1 7 Conclusions 26
2 Bose-Einstein dynamics and adaptive contracting in
die motion picture industry 28
2 1 Introduction 28
2 2 The mechanics of supply 29
2 3 Demand discovery and distributional dynamics 32
2 4 Empirical box-office revenue distributions 37
2 5 Explaining the industry 44
2 6 Conclusions 46
3 Quality evaluations and the breakdown of statistical
herding in the dynamics of box-office revenue 48
3 1 Introduction 48
3 2 Information and demand dynamics 49
3 3 The model 51
viii Contents
3 4 Estimates 52
3 5 The stable Paretian model 56
3 6 Bifurcation at phase transitions 57
3 7 Discussion of results 60
3 8 Conclusions 62
PARTn
Wild uncertainty, tough decisions and false beliefs 65
4 Uncertainty in the movie industry: can star power reduce
the terror of the box office? 71
4 1 Introduction 71
4 2 Related literature 72
4 3 Modeling star power 73
4 4 The movie data 77
4 5 Estimation results 84
4 6 Choosing among movie projects 96
4 7 Conclusions 98
5 Does Hollywood make too many R-rated movies?: risk,
stochastic dominance and the illusion of expectation 99
5 1 Introduction 99
5 2 Motion picture production by ratings 101
5 3 Choosing among uncertain movie projects 103
5 4 Ranking by success rates 108
5 5 Ranking by stochastic dominance 110
5 6 Conclusions 120
6 Big budgets, big openings and legs: analysis of
the blockbuster strategy 122
6 1 Introduction 122
6 2 The blockbuster and the information cascade 123
6 3 Movie industry data and summary statistics 125
64A structural model of box-office outcomes 129
6 5 Conclusions 137
PART HI
Judges, lawyers and the movies 139
7 Motion picture antitrust: the Paramount cases revisited 143
7 1 The essential economics of motion pictures 145
7 2 The feature motion picture 151
Contents ix
7 3 Integration and licensing 154
7 4 The courts analyses 166
7 5 Paramount s effects 170
7 6 Conclusions 174
8 Was the antitrust action that broke up the movie studios
good for the movies?: evidence from the stock market 176
8 1 Introduction 176
8 2 The studio system 178
8 3 The Paramount litigation 178
8 4 Stock prices 181
8 5 The feasibility of a motion picture cartel 186
8 6 Winners and losers 188
8 7 Conclusions 189
9 Stochastic market structure: concentration measures and
motion picture antitrust 190
9 1 Introduction 190
9 2 Market power: theory and policy 191
9 3 Concentration in United States v Paramount Pictures 193
9 4 Instability of concentration and shares 194
9 5 Turnover of the leading firms 200
9 6 Standard models do not apply to motion pictures 202
9 7 The probability distribution of the HHI 204
9 8 Conclusions 206
PART IV
A business of extremes • 207
10 Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis and
the curse of the superstar 211
10 1 Introduction 211
10 2 The stable hypothesis 213
10 3 Motion picture profit 214
10 4 The stable distribution 216
10 5 Stable estimation and diagnostics 217
10 6 Probability under the stable model 219
10 7 Nobody knows 220
10 8 Conditional stable analysis and superstars 221
10 9 Sample average and expected value 223
10 10 The curse of the superstar 225
10 11 Success breeds success 226
x Contents
10 12 Cost momentum and the angel s nightmare 227
10 13 Stable distribution and contracting 228
10 14 Conclusions 230
11 Contracting with stars when nobody knows anything 231
11 1 Introduction 231
11 2 On becoming a superstar 232
11 3 Artists and kurtosis 235
11 4 Career expectations and opportunities 238
11 5 Luck or talent? 239
11 6 Competing for stars 243
11 7 Artist contracts 245
11 8 Pay when you do know 246
11 9 Director contracts 251
11 10 Conclusions 254
12 How extreme uncertainty shapes die movie business 255
12 1 Introduction 255
12 2 Complex systems 256
12 3 Universality 258
12 4 Deep order 259
12 5 Complexity and the stable Paretian distribution 265
Epilogue: can you manage a business when
nobody knows anything? 267
Probabilities 268
Inside and outside the studio 268
Risk and decision bias 269
Narrow framing and sure things 270
Financing movies 271
Causality and Kim Basinger 273
A skeptical attitude 275
Notes 276
Bibliography 298
Index 305
|
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| spelling | De Vany, Arthur 1937- Verfasser (DE-588)130133906 aut Hollywood economics how extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry Arthur De Vany 1. publ. London [u.a.] Routledge 2004 XVII, 308 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Contemporary political economy series Bedrijfsbeleid gtt Filmindustrie gtt Motion picture industry Economic aspects United States Film (DE-588)4017102-4 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf Filmwirtschaft (DE-588)4154384-1 gnd rswk-swf USA Los Angeles- Hollywood (DE-588)4099817-4 gnd rswk-swf Los Angeles- Hollywood (DE-588)4099817-4 g Filmwirtschaft (DE-588)4154384-1 s DE-604 Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Film (DE-588)4017102-4 s HEBIS Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=012824483&sequence=000006&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | De Vany, Arthur 1937- Hollywood economics how extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry Bedrijfsbeleid gtt Filmindustrie gtt Motion picture industry Economic aspects United States Film (DE-588)4017102-4 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Filmwirtschaft (DE-588)4154384-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4017102-4 (DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4154384-1 (DE-588)4099817-4 |
| title | Hollywood economics how extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry |
| title_auth | Hollywood economics how extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry |
| title_exact_search | Hollywood economics how extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry |
| title_full | Hollywood economics how extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry Arthur De Vany |
| title_fullStr | Hollywood economics how extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry Arthur De Vany |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hollywood economics how extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry Arthur De Vany |
| title_short | Hollywood economics |
| title_sort | hollywood economics how extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry |
| title_sub | how extreme uncertainty shapes the film industry |
| topic | Bedrijfsbeleid gtt Filmindustrie gtt Motion picture industry Economic aspects United States Film (DE-588)4017102-4 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Filmwirtschaft (DE-588)4154384-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bedrijfsbeleid Filmindustrie Motion picture industry Economic aspects United States Film Wirtschaft Filmwirtschaft USA Los Angeles- Hollywood |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=012824483&sequence=000006&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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