The elements of successful trading: developing your comprehensive strategy through psychology, money management, and trading methods
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York
New York Inst. of Finance
1992
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XX, 666 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0132045796 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The elements of successful trading |b developing your comprehensive strategy through psychology, money management, and trading methods |c Robert P. Rotella |
| 264 | 1 | |a New York |b New York Inst. of Finance |c 1992 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface, xix
Chapter 1: Developing a Trading Strategy, 1
Trading Method, 2
Money Management, 3
Psychology of the Trader, 4
Trading Is an Interactive Process of the Three Elements, 4
Philosophy of Trading, 5
Approach to Trading, 6
Conclusion, 6
PART ONE: TRADING METHODS, 7
Chapter 2: Fundamentals of Markets, 9
Purpose of Markets, 9
Equity and Debt Markets, 10
History of Futures Markets, 12 ^
Reason for a Futures Market, 12
v
vj Contents
Players of a Futures Market, 13
Hedging Examples, 14
Risks in Hedging, 17
Speculation Examples, 18
Distinction Between Speculation and Gambling, 19
Game Theory, 19
Zero sum and Nonzero sum Games, 19
Distinctions Between Futures Markets and Stock
and Bond Markets, 21
: The Efficient Market Hypothesis, 21
Margins, 23
The Basis, 24
Normal and Inverted Markets, 27
Arbitrage, 29
What Is a Market? 30
Conclusion, 31
Chapter 3: Fundamental Analysis, 33
Supply and Demand Curves, 34
Supply and Demand in Futures, 37
Money, 38
Conclusion, 39
Chapter 4: Foreign Exchange, 41
Fixed versus Floating, 46
Economic Need for Hedging in Foreign Exchange Markets, 46
Determinants of Foreign Exchange, 48
Spot and Forward Pricing, 51
Cross Rates, 52
Conclusion, 52
Chapter 5: Interest Rate Markets, 53
Interest Rates, 53
Types of Interest Rate Contracts, 53
Structure of Interest Rates, 56
Nominal and Real Interest Rates, 60
Contents vii
Purpose of Interest Rate Futures, 61
Character of Interest Rates, 62
Conclusion, 63
Chapter fc^the Stock Market, 65
v Stock Indexes, 65
Determinants of the Stock Market Prices, 67
Systematic versus Unsystematic Risk, 68
Basis Calculation for Stock Index Futures, 68
Stock Index Arbitrage, 69
Need for Stock Index Futures, 71
Effects of Stock Index Futures on the Stock Market, 73
Conclusion, 75
Chapter 7: Natural Resources, 77
The Petroleum Market, 77
Crude Oil, 78
The Metals, 82
Cotton and Lumber, 86
Conclusion, 87
Chapter 8: Food, 89
Beans, Grains and Related Food Products, 89
Meats, 93
Other Foods, 95
Conclusion, 99
Chapter 9: Technical Analysis, 101
Distinctions Between Technical and Fundamental Analysis, 103
Basis for Technical Analysis, 204
A Human Analogy for Technical Analysis, 108
Starting Point, 113
Which Chart to Use? 122
Which Time Frame to Use? 123
Continuation Charts, 226
Price, Volume, and Open Interest, 232
viii Contents
Three Phases of a Market, 232
Dow Theory and the Three Trends and Phases of the Market, 139
Trend Following Methods, 243
Subjective and Objective Analysis, 147
Conclusion, 148
Chapter 10: Subjective Analysis, 149
Support and Resistance Points, 149
Support and Resistance Lines, 155
Horizontal Support and Resistance Lines, 156
Trendlines, 161
Channels, 161
Combining Support and Resistance Lines, 168
Robert Edwards and John Magee, 170
Richard Wyckoff, 182
W. D. Gann, 183
Leonardo Fibonacci, 256
Wave Theory—Elliott Wave, 188
Percentage Retracements, 292
Contrary Opinion, 292
Astrology, 294
A Sound Approach? 195
Nebulous Patterns, 196
Conclusion, 196
Chapter 11: Objective Analysis, 297
Data Presentation, 198
Filtering, 200
Moving Average, 200
Trading with Moving Averages, 205
Which Moving Average Is Best? 208
Envelopes and Bands, 209
Oscillators, 222
Momentum, 226
Rate of Change, 228
Contents ix
Stochastics, 219
Williams %R, 221
Wilder s Relative Strength Index, 223
Volatility Systems, 224
Velocity and Acceleration, 226
Volume and Open Interest, 22S
Commitment of Trader s Report, 229
On Balance Volume, 230
Donchian Method, 232
Chaos Theory, 232
Conclusion, 232
Chapter 12: Cycles, 233
Definitions, 234
Two or More Cycles, 238
Adding and Subtracting Cycles, 241
Cycle Theory Applied to the Markets, 244
Detrending Cycles, 245
Business and Trading Cycles, 248
Some Observed Cycles, 251
Circadian Timing Cycles, 253
Conclusion, 254
Chapter 13: Pattern Recognition, 255
What to Look for in Patterns, 257
Price Patterns, 259
Price and Time Patterns, 259
Price, Time, and Volume, 261
Identifying Patterns, 261
Testing a Pattern, 264
Analyzing Results, 265
Testing for Nonrandom Behavior in Patterns, 266
Some Patterns to Consider, 268
Complex Pattern Recognition, 277
Japanese Candlestick Chart Patterns, 275
x Contents
Mathematics, Reason, Emotion and the Markets, 281
Another Thought on Pattern Recognition, 252
Conclusion, 252
Chapter 14: Option Basics, 285
Definitions, 285
Risk and Reward Characteristics of Buying and Selling a Future, 292
Risk and Reward Characteristics of Buying a Call, 293
Risk and Reward Characteristics of Buying a Put, 295
Risk and Reward Characteristics of Selling a Call, 297
Risk and Reward Characteristics of Selling a Put, 299
To Buy or Sell? 301
Conclusion, 302
Chapter 15: Option Combinations, 303
Straddles, 303
Strangles and Guts, 305
Vertical Call and Put Spreads, 308
Debit and Credit, 311
Ratio Spreads, 312
Backspreads, 314
Butterflies, 316
Fences, 317
Spreads with Different Expirations, 319
Horizontal or Time Spreads, 319
Diagonals, 322
Synthetic Positions, 322
Synthetic Long or Short Positions, 322
Synthetic Calls and Puts, 322
Reversals and Conversions, 325
When Should These Trades Be Done? 325
Advantages and Disadvantages of Options, 326
Hedging with Options, 327
Conclusion, 331
Contents xi
Chapter 16: Option Pricing, 333
The Black Scholes Model, 335
Delta, 336
Gamma, 339
Theta, 341
Vega, 343
Rho, 345
Delta Neutral Trading, 345
Why Use the Option Models? 346
Speculating in Options—Why Trade Options? 346
Conclusion, 348
Chapter^: Volatility, 349
Typical Volatility Distributions, 352
A Second Look at Volatility, 355
Historical Volatility, 356
Seasonal Volatility, 358
Implied Volatility, 358
Predicted Volatility, 362
Future Volatility, 362
Volatility and Price, 363
Conclusion, 363
Chapter 18: Spreads, 365
Intracommodity Spreads, 366
Determining Price Relationships, 366
Other Considerations, 369
Intercommodity Spreads, 371
Matching Contract Value With Different Contracts, 372
The Crack Spread, 373
Index Spreads, 375
Intermarket Spreads, 378
Legging a Spread, 379
Spreading—Risk and Reward, 380
Conclusion, 380
xii Contents
Chapter 19: Computers and Trading, 381
Can Computers Reduce the Amount of Work
and Decisions a Trader Makes? 382
Hardware and Software, 382
Computers and Trading, 383
Displaying Market Information, 383
[j Testing Mechanical Systems, 383
Option Analysis, 384
Database, 384
Spreadsheets, 386
Computer Languages, 386
Things to Consider when Getting Computers, 387
Artificial Intelligence, 388
Conclusion, 389
PART TWO: MONEY MANAGEMENT, 392
Chapter 20: Risk and Reward, 393
Preservation of Capital, 394
The Journey, 394
Risk and Reward, 396
What Is Risk and Reward? 396
Lucky and Sharky, 397
Risks Associated with Trading, 399
Close to Open Risk, 401
Slippage Risk, 403
Controllable and Uncontrollable Risk: Further
Thoughts, 405
Chance and Amount of a Severe Loss Due
to Uncontrollable Risk, 406
Limit Moves, 409
Reward, 411
Combining Risk and Reward Using Expected Outcome, 422
Conclusion, 414
Contents xiii
Chapter 21: Drawdown and Return on Investment, 415
Chance and Amount of a Series of Losses, 425
Drawdown, 416
Maximum Drawdown, 420
Two Scenarios, 422
What Does Maximum Drawdown Tell Us? 423
Return on Investment (ROD, 425
Maximum Drawdown and Return on Investment, 426
Sterling Ratio, 430
Using ROI and Maximum Drawdown for Determining
Capital Requirements, 431
Pros and Cons of Maximum Drawdown, 431
Theory of Runs, 435
Applications to Trading, 436
Limitations with the Theory of Runs, 438
Lucky and Sharky, 439
Conclusion, 442
Chapter 22: Other Measures of Risk and Reward, 443
Standard Deviation as a Measure of Risk, 443
Correlations, 444
Efficient Frontier, 446
Efficient Frontier and Risk free Assets, 448
The Efficient Frontier Is Dynamic, 450
Sharpe Ratio, 450
The Risk of Ruin, 452
Martingale Approach, 453
A Review of Performance Measures in Money Management, 453
Conclusion, 456
Chapter 23: Methods of Reducing Risk
and Increasing Reward, 457
Factors that Affect Risk and Reward, 457
Time, 458
Volatility, 462
xiv Contents
Diversification, 467
Liquidity, 476
The Rest, 477
Measuring Risk, 478
Important Distinction Between Risk and Reward, 479
Practical Trading Risks, 480
Conclusion, 480
Chapter 24: Considerations in Developing
a Trading Method, 481
Percent Profitable to Total Trades, 481
Percent Profitable Trades and the Theory of Runs, 484
Going for Large or Small Profits, 486
Other Performance Measures, 487
Entry and Exit Points, 488
Stop Placement: Deciding Entry and Exit Points in Trades, 489
Protective Stops, 493
Closing, Opening, or Intraday Prices for Entry and Exit, 494
If You Want to Use Closing Prices as Buy or Sell Points, 498
Where to Place Stops: a Second Thought, 499
Other Considerations, 500
Limiting Losses, 501
¦ Pyramiding, 502
Know the Three Trends of the Market, 503
Subjective Analysis: a Second Look, 504
Day Trading, 505
Conclusion, 507
Chapter 25: Optimization, 509
The Optimization Process, 510
How a Change in Parameter Affects the Intermediate Results, 523
What to Optimize, 515
Optimization: a Question of Balance, 517
./ Considerations When Testing, 518
Sensitivity, 520
Contents xv
An Example in Optimization, 522
Questions Without Answers, 526
Optimizing Results with Maximum Drawdown
and ROI, 529
Optimization and Subjective Analysis, 534
How Realistic Is Your Trading System? 535
Conclusion, 536
Chapter 26: Developing a Comprehensive Approach
to Money Management, 537
The Journey Continues, 537
Effect of Winning and Losing Trades on Equity, 539
When Should Position Size Be Changed? 540
How Much Capital Should Be Risked in Trading? 545
Effect of Risking Differing Percentages of Equity, 547
The Kelly Formula, 549
Which Path? 551
How Much Capital to Risk Using the Optimal F, 553
Determining Amount of Capital to Risk, 554
What About Exchange Margins? 555
What Type of Reward Should We Expect in Trading? 555
Trading Is a Game of Probabilities, 556
The Path Never Ends—Trading Is a Continuous Process, 556
Conclusion, 556
PART THREE: PSYCHOLOGY, 559
Chapter 27: Psychology and Trading, 561
Psychology and Trading, 561
Why Trade? 562
The Psychology of the Trader Determines
the Trading Strategies, 563
Psychology Is the Crux of Trading, 565
Conclusion, 566
xvi Contents
Chapter 28: Character Traits for Successful Trading, 567
Self control, 568
Accept Responsibility, 570
Operate in an Unstructured Environment, 572
Ability to Think Independently and Creatively, 572
Willingness to Accept Risk and Take Losses, 574
Accept the Lack of Control and Understanding of the Market, 575
Adjust to a Constantly Changing Environment, 577
Ability to Act on Your Decision, 578
Ability to Withstand Stress, 580
Emotionally Detached, 581
Patience, 582
Enthusiasm, Commitment, and Focus, 583
Self direction, 584
Conclusion, 585
Chapter 29: Three Qualities, 587
Introspection, 587
Confidence, 589
Perseverance, 590
Interaction of the Three Qualities, 591
Conclusion, 592
Chapter 30: Developing a Trading Mentality, 593
The Fight from Within, 596
Solving a Problem, 597
Introspection: A Second Look, 599
Is There No Hope? 600
Why Is Trading such a Painful Process? 601
Insight, 602
How Do You Develop a Proper Mind Set for Trading? 603
Goals: Change and Acceptance, 604
Goals and Objectives, 605
Lose Your Ego: Selflessness, 606
Contents xvii
Develop a Trading Style, 607
Playing the Probabilities, 608
Conclusion, 609
Chapter 31: Practical Considerations in Psychology, 611
Develop a Game Plan, 611
Emotional Drawdown, 613
The Highs and Lows of Trading, 614
Lack of Resolution, 615
Distinguish Between Changing Markets
and Changing Strategies, 626
Environmental Influences, 616
Try to Be as Unbiased as Possible, 627
Do Not Try to Beat the Market, 618
Psychology of Entry and Exit, 628
The Importance of Knowing When to Stay Out of a Market, 629
Ability to Separate the Present from the Past and the Future, 620
Is the Market Right or Wrong? 622
Good and Bad Trades, 622
Making Good of a Bad Situation, 623
Changing Your Style, 623
Changing Your Style: Another Thought, 624
Trading Is an Evolutionary Process, 625
Trading by Feel, 625
Mechanical Trading Systems, 626
Trading Systems: a Second Look, 628
If Trading Systems Are So Good, Why Give Away a Secret? 629
Conclusion, 630
Chapter 32: Advantages and Benefits of Trading, 631
You Choose When to Trade, 632
You Need Only Rely on Yourself, 632
The Market Will Be There Tomorrow, 632
Focused Attention, 633
No Outside Pressure, 633
xviii Contents
You Only Have to Answer to Yourself, 633
Cost to Enter Is Low, 634
Information Access, 634
Individual versus the Crowd, 634
Create a Strategy and Test It, 635
Benefits of Trading, 635
Chapter 33: A Separate Peace, 637
Bibliography,) 641
Index, 646
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| spelling | Rotella, Robert Paul Verfasser aut The elements of successful trading developing your comprehensive strategy through psychology, money management, and trading methods Robert P. Rotella New York New York Inst. of Finance 1992 XX, 666 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Futures market Options (Finance) Speculation Anlagepolitik (DE-588)4206018-7 gnd rswk-swf Börsenspekulation (DE-588)4131941-2 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4048476-2 Ratgeber gnd-content Börsenspekulation (DE-588)4131941-2 s Anlagepolitik (DE-588)4206018-7 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=012790709&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Rotella, Robert Paul The elements of successful trading developing your comprehensive strategy through psychology, money management, and trading methods Futures market Options (Finance) Speculation Anlagepolitik (DE-588)4206018-7 gnd Börsenspekulation (DE-588)4131941-2 gnd |
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| title | The elements of successful trading developing your comprehensive strategy through psychology, money management, and trading methods |
| title_auth | The elements of successful trading developing your comprehensive strategy through psychology, money management, and trading methods |
| title_exact_search | The elements of successful trading developing your comprehensive strategy through psychology, money management, and trading methods |
| title_full | The elements of successful trading developing your comprehensive strategy through psychology, money management, and trading methods Robert P. Rotella |
| title_fullStr | The elements of successful trading developing your comprehensive strategy through psychology, money management, and trading methods Robert P. Rotella |
| title_full_unstemmed | The elements of successful trading developing your comprehensive strategy through psychology, money management, and trading methods Robert P. Rotella |
| title_short | The elements of successful trading |
| title_sort | the elements of successful trading developing your comprehensive strategy through psychology money management and trading methods |
| title_sub | developing your comprehensive strategy through psychology, money management, and trading methods |
| topic | Futures market Options (Finance) Speculation Anlagepolitik (DE-588)4206018-7 gnd Börsenspekulation (DE-588)4131941-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Futures market Options (Finance) Speculation Anlagepolitik Börsenspekulation Ratgeber |
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