Historical dynamics: why states rise and fall
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Princeton ; Oxford
Princeton University Press
2003
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Princeton studies in complexity
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Hier auch später erschienene, unveränderte Nachdrucke |
| Beschreibung: | XII, 245 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten |
| ISBN: | 0691116695 9780691116693 9780691180779 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804130517428207616 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Historical Dynamics
Why States Rise and Fall
Peter Turchin
PRINCETONUNIVERSITY PRESS
PRINCETONANDOXFORD
Contents
List of Figures viii
List of Tables x
Preface xi
Chapter 1 Statement of the Problem 1
1 1 Why Do We Need a Mathematical Theory in History? 1
1 2 Historical Dynamics as a Research Program 3
121 Delimiting the Set of Questions 4
122A Focus on Agrarian Polities 4
123 The Hierarchical Modeling Approach 5
124 Mathematical Framework 5
1 3 Summary 7
Chapter 2 Geopolitics 9
21A Primer of Dynamics 9
211 Boundless Growth 9
212 Equilibrial Dynamics 11
213 Boom/Bust Dynamics and Sustained Oscillations 1 2
214 Implications for Historical Dynamics 14
2 2 The Collins Theory of Geopolitics 1 6
221 Modeling Size and Distance Effects 1 6
222 Positional Effects 20
223 Conflict-legitimacy Dynamics 23
2 3 Conclusion: Geopolitics as a First-order Process 25
2 4 Summary 27
Chapter 3 Collective Solidarity 29
3 1 Groups in Sociology 29
311 Groups as Analytical Units 29
312 Evolution of Solidaristic Behaviors 31
313 Ethnic Groups and Ethnicity 33
314 The Social Scale 34
315 Ethnies 36
3 2 Collective Solidarity and Historical Dynamics 36
321 Ibn Khaldun s Theory 38
322 Gumilev s Theory 40
323 The Modern Context 42
3 3 Summary 47
vi CONTENTS
Chapter 4 The Metaethnic Frontier Theory 50
4 1 Frontiers as Incubators of Group Solidarity 50
411 Factors Causing Solidarity Increase 51
412 Imperial Boundaries and Metaethnic Fault Lines 53
413 Scaling-up Structures 57
414 Placing the Metaethnic Frontier Theory in Context 59
4 2 Mathematical Theory 63
421A Simple Analytical Model 64
422A Spatially Explicit Simulation 68
4 3 Summary 75
Chapter 5 An Empirical Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory 78
5 1 Setting Up the Test 78
511 Quantifying Frontiers 79
512 Polity Size 81
5 2 Results 83
521 Europe: 0-1000 c E 83
522 Europe: 1000-1900 c E 86
5 3 Positional Advantage? 89
5 4 Conclusion: The Making of Europe 91
5 5 Summary 92
Chapter 6 Ethnokinetics 94
6 1 Allegiance Dynamics of Incorporated Populations 94
6 2 Theory 95
621 Nonspatial Models of Assimilation 95
622 Spatially Explicit Models 99
6 3 Empirical Tests 104
631 Conversion to Islam 105
632 The Rise of Christianity 111
633 The Growth of the Mormon Church 11 2
6 4 Conclusion: Data Support the Autocatalytic Model 11 3
6 5 Summary 1 16
Chapter 7 The Demographic-Structural Theory 118
7 1 Population Dynamics and State Breakdown 118
7 2 Mathematical Theory 121
721 The Basic Demographic-Fiscal Model 121
722 Adding Class Structure 127
723 Models for Elite Cycles 1 31
724 Models for the Chinese Dynastic Cycle 1 37
725 Summing up Theoretical Insights 1 38
7 3 Empirical Applications 140
731 Periodic Breakdowns of Early Modern States 140
732 The Great Wave 143
733 After the Black Death 1 45
7 4 Summary 148
CONTENTS vii
Chapter 8 Secular Cycles in Population Numbers 150
8 1 Introduction 150
8 2 Scale and Order in Human Population Dynamics 1 50
8 3 Long-Term Empirical Patterns 155
831 Reconstructions of Historical Populations 155
832 Archaeological Data 161
8 4 Population Dynamics and Political Instability 164
8 5 Summary 167
Chapter 9 Case Studies 1 70
9 1 France 170
911 The Frontier Origins 170
912 Secular Waves 176
913 Summary 184
9 2 Russia 184
921 The Frontier Origins 184
922 Secular Waves 191
923 Summary 196
Chapter 10 Conclusion 197
10 1 Overview of Main Developments 197
10 1 1 Asabiya and Metaethnic Frontiers 197
10 1 2 Ethnic Assimilation 198
10 1 3 Demographic-Structural Theory 199
10 1 4 Geopolitics 199
10 2 Combining Different Mechanisms into an Integrated Whole 200
10 3 Broadening the Focus of Investigation 203
10 4 Toward Theoretical Cliodynamics? 204
Appendix A Mathematical Appendix 205
A I Translating the Hanneman Model into Differential Equations 205
A 2 The Spatial Simulation of the Frontier Hypothesis 206
A 3 Demographic-Structural Models with Class Structure 208
A 4 Models for Elite Cycles 212
Appendix B Data Summaries for the Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory 214
B I Brief Descriptions of Cultural Regions 21 4
B 2 Quantification of Frontiers 215
B 3 Quantification of Polity Sizes: The First Millennium c E 224
B 4 Quantification of Polity Sizes: The Second Millennium c E 225
Bibliography 226
Index 243
|
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| callnumber-first | D - World History |
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| callnumber-raw | D16.13 |
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| spelling | Turchin, Peter 1957- Verfasser (DE-588)139507957 aut Historical dynamics why states rise and fall Peter Turchin Princeton ; Oxford Princeton University Press 2003 XII, 245 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Princeton studies in complexity Hier auch später erschienene, unveränderte Nachdrucke Histoire - Modèles mathématiques Historiométrie Historische sociologie gtt Sociologie historique Staatsvorming gtt Statistische analyse gtt Wiskundige modellen gtt Geschichte Mathematisches Modell Historiometry History Mathematical models Dynamik (DE-588)4013384-9 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte (DE-588)4020517-4 gnd rswk-swf Historische Soziologie (DE-588)4447176-2 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte (DE-588)4020517-4 s Dynamik (DE-588)4013384-9 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s DE-604 Historische Soziologie (DE-588)4447176-2 s 1\p DE-604 HEBIS Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=010702223&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Turchin, Peter 1957- Historical dynamics why states rise and fall Histoire - Modèles mathématiques Historiométrie Historische sociologie gtt Sociologie historique Staatsvorming gtt Statistische analyse gtt Wiskundige modellen gtt Geschichte Mathematisches Modell Historiometry History Mathematical models Dynamik (DE-588)4013384-9 gnd Geschichte (DE-588)4020517-4 gnd Historische Soziologie (DE-588)4447176-2 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4013384-9 (DE-588)4020517-4 (DE-588)4447176-2 (DE-588)4114528-8 |
| title | Historical dynamics why states rise and fall |
| title_auth | Historical dynamics why states rise and fall |
| title_exact_search | Historical dynamics why states rise and fall |
| title_full | Historical dynamics why states rise and fall Peter Turchin |
| title_fullStr | Historical dynamics why states rise and fall Peter Turchin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Historical dynamics why states rise and fall Peter Turchin |
| title_short | Historical dynamics |
| title_sort | historical dynamics why states rise and fall |
| title_sub | why states rise and fall |
| topic | Histoire - Modèles mathématiques Historiométrie Historische sociologie gtt Sociologie historique Staatsvorming gtt Statistische analyse gtt Wiskundige modellen gtt Geschichte Mathematisches Modell Historiometry History Mathematical models Dynamik (DE-588)4013384-9 gnd Geschichte (DE-588)4020517-4 gnd Historische Soziologie (DE-588)4447176-2 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Histoire - Modèles mathématiques Historiométrie Historische sociologie Sociologie historique Staatsvorming Statistische analyse Wiskundige modellen Geschichte Mathematisches Modell Historiometry History Mathematical models Dynamik Historische Soziologie |
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