Understanding economic forecasts:
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, Mass. [u.a.]
MIT Press
2003
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. paperback ed. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVII, 207 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0262582422 0262083043 |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000zc 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV017495912 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 20090407 | ||
| 007 | t | ||
| 008 | 030912s2003 xxud||| |||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 020 | |a 0262582422 |9 0-262-58242-2 | ||
| 020 | |a 0262083043 |9 0-262-08304-3 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)424028182 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV017495912 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e aacr | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 044 | |a xxu |c US | ||
| 049 | |a DE-20 |a DE-703 |a DE-355 | ||
| 050 | 0 | |a HB3730 U54 2003 | |
| 084 | |a QN 200 |0 (DE-625)141802: |2 rvk | ||
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Understanding economic forecasts |c ed. by David F. Hendry ... |
| 250 | |a 1. paperback ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Cambridge, Mass. [u.a.] |b MIT Press |c 2003 | |
| 300 | |a XVII, 207 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Prévision économique | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Prognose |0 (DE-588)4047390-9 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Wirtschaft |0 (DE-588)4066399-1 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 655 | 7 | |0 (DE-588)4143413-4 |a Aufsatzsammlung |2 gnd-content | |
| 689 | 0 | 0 | |a Wirtschaft |0 (DE-588)4066399-1 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 1 | |a Prognose |0 (DE-588)4047390-9 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | |5 DE-604 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hendry, David F. |d 1944- |e Sonstige |0 (DE-588)120905612 |4 oth | |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m Digitalisierung UB Regensburg |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=010539904&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-010539904 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804130293298233344 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Figures
xi
List of Tables
xiv
Preface
xv
List of Contributors and Their Affiliations
xvii
1
Editors Introduction
1
1.1
Economic Forecasting
2
1.2
An Analogy
4
1.3
Forecasting Methods
7
1.4
Evaluating Forecasts
9
1.5
Summary of the Chapters
10
2
How Economists Forecast
15
David F. Hendry
2.1
Introduction
15
2.2
Forecast Terminology
17
2.3
Some Essential Background
20
2.4
Methods of Forecasting
24
2.5
On Winning at Forecasting
26
2.6
On Determining the Forecast Winner
27
2.7
Forecast Confidence Intervals
27
2.8
How Economists Analyze Their Methods
29
2.9
The Main Problems Affecting Economic Forecasts
33
2.10
Forecasting
300
Years of UK Industrial Output
34
2.11
Some Potential Solutions
40
2.12
Conclusions
41
3
Economic Modeling for Fun and Profit
42
Paul Turner
3.1
Introduction
42
3.2
Alternative Forecasting Methods
44
vu
viii Contents
3.3
A Basic Model of the UK Economy
47
3.4
Concluding Remarks
52
4
Making Sense of Published Economic Forecasts
54
Diane Coyle
4.1
A Famous Forecasting Competition
54
4.2
Spurious Precision
57
4.3
Forecast Errors
59
4.4
Confusing Public-service Forecasts with Targets
62
4.5
Forecast Uncertainty and Policy Lags
63
4.6
Forecasting Is Difficult
65
4.7
Conclusions
66
5
Forecast Uncertainty in Economic Modeling
68
Neil R. Ericsson
5.1
Introduction
68
5.2
Forecasts, Outcomes, and Forecast Errors
70
5.3
Sources of Forecast Uncertainty
76
5.4
Conclusions
91
6
Evaluation of Forecasts
93
Clive
W. J.
Granger
6.1
Model Evaluation in Economics
93
6.2
Forecasting Background
95
6.3
Evaluation of a Point Forecast
97
6.4
Different Situations for Evaluation
99
6.5
Forecasts and Decisions
100
6.6
Concluding Remarks
103
7
Forecasting and the UK Business Cycle
104
Denise R.
Osborn, Marianne Sensier, and Paul W. Simpson
7.1
Introduction
104
7.2
The Nature of the UK Business Cycle
108
7.3
Univariate Business-cycle Models
110
7.4
Interest Rates and Output Forecasts
115
7.5
Measures of Forecast Accuracy
120
7.6
Concluding Remarks
122
8
Modeling and Forecasting at the Bank of England
124
Neal Hatch
8.1
Introduction
124
8.2
Models, Forecasts, and Policy
125
Contents
ix
8.3
A Suite of Models
138
8.4
Properties of the Bank s Core Model
142
8.5
Other Modeling Techniques and Information Sources
145
8.6
Conclusions
148
9
Forecasting the World Economy
149
Ray Barrell
9.1
Introduction
149
9.2
Endemic Structural Change
153
9.3
European Labor Markets
154
9.4
Japanese Consumers Expenditure
156
9.5
The East Asian Financial Crisis,
1997-1998
157
9.6
The Collapse of LTCM in
1998
159
9.7
Living in a Low-inflation World
160
9.8
Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom
164
9.9
Conclusions
169
10
The
Costs of Forecast Errors
170
Terence Burns
10.1
Introduction
170
10.2
The General Case for Economic Forecasting
171
10.3
Some Characteristics of Forecast Errors
173
10.4
Forecast Errors Under a Given Policy Framework
175
10.5
Choosing the Policy Framework
181
10.6
Conclusions
183
11
Epilogue
185
David F. Hendry and Neil R. Ericsson
11.1
A Retrospective
186
11.2
A More Formal Approach
188
11.3
Concluding Remarks
190
References
193
Author Index
203
Subject
Index
205
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author_GND | (DE-588)120905612 |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV017495912 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HB3730 U54 2003 |
| callnumber-raw | HB3730 U54 2003 |
| callnumber-search | HB3730 U54 2003 |
| callnumber-sort | HB 43730 U54 42003 |
| callnumber-subject | HB - Economic Theory and Demography |
| classification_rvk | QN 200 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)424028182 (DE-599)BVBBV017495912 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 1. paperback ed. |
| format | Book |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>01541nam a2200409zc 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV017495912</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20090407 </controlfield><controlfield tag="007">t</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">030912s2003 xxud||| |||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">0262582422</subfield><subfield code="9">0-262-58242-2</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">0262083043</subfield><subfield code="9">0-262-08304-3</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)424028182</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV017495912</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">aacr</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="044" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">xxu</subfield><subfield code="c">US</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-20</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-703</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-355</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="050" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">HB3730 U54 2003</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">QN 200</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-625)141802:</subfield><subfield code="2">rvk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Understanding economic forecasts</subfield><subfield code="c">ed. by David F. Hendry ...</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="250" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1. paperback ed.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Cambridge, Mass. [u.a.]</subfield><subfield code="b">MIT Press</subfield><subfield code="c">2003</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">XVII, 207 S.</subfield><subfield code="b">graph. Darst.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Prévision économique</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Prognose</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4047390-9</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Wirtschaft</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4066399-1</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="655" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4143413-4</subfield><subfield code="a">Aufsatzsammlung</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd-content</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Wirtschaft</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4066399-1</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Prognose</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4047390-9</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="5">DE-604</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Hendry, David F.</subfield><subfield code="d">1944-</subfield><subfield code="e">Sonstige</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)120905612</subfield><subfield code="4">oth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="2"><subfield code="m">Digitalisierung UB Regensburg</subfield><subfield code="q">application/pdf</subfield><subfield code="u">http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=010539904&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA</subfield><subfield code="3">Inhaltsverzeichnis</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="999" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-010539904</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| genre | (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Aufsatzsammlung |
| id | DE-604.BV017495912 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T19:18:44Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0262582422 0262083043 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-010539904 |
| oclc_num | 424028182 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-20 DE-703 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR |
| owner_facet | DE-20 DE-703 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR |
| physical | XVII, 207 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2003 |
| publishDateSearch | 2003 |
| publishDateSort | 2003 |
| publisher | MIT Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Understanding economic forecasts ed. by David F. Hendry ... 1. paperback ed. Cambridge, Mass. [u.a.] MIT Press 2003 XVII, 207 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Prévision économique Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 Hendry, David F. 1944- Sonstige (DE-588)120905612 oth Digitalisierung UB Regensburg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=010539904&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Understanding economic forecasts Prévision économique Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Understanding economic forecasts |
| title_auth | Understanding economic forecasts |
| title_exact_search | Understanding economic forecasts |
| title_full | Understanding economic forecasts ed. by David F. Hendry ... |
| title_fullStr | Understanding economic forecasts ed. by David F. Hendry ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Understanding economic forecasts ed. by David F. Hendry ... |
| title_short | Understanding economic forecasts |
| title_sort | understanding economic forecasts |
| topic | Prévision économique Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Prévision économique Prognose Wirtschaft Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=010539904&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hendrydavidf understandingeconomicforecasts |