World water and food to 2025: dealing with scarcity
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C.
International Food Policy Research Institute
2002
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references ([209]-223) and index |
| Beschreibung: | XXIV, 322 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 0896296466 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a World water and food to 2025 |b dealing with scarcity |c Mark W. Rosegrant, Ximing Cai, Sarah A. Cline |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, D.C. |b International Food Policy Research Institute |c 2002 | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Food supply |x Forecasting |x Econometric models | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804129482973380608 |
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| adam_text | Titel: World water and food to 2025
Autor: Rosegrant, Mark W.
Jahr: 2002
Contents
Tables vii
Figures xiii
Boxes xvii
Foreword xix
Acknowledgments xxi
Acronyms xxiii
1. Water Resources and Food Production l
Introduction 1
Issues and Challenges 3
Overview of the Book 12
2. The Water and Food Model 15
Literature Review 15
IMPACT-WATER Model 18
Water Demand 20
Water Supply 23
Water Simulation Model 24
Extension of the IMPACT Model 26
Linking IMPACT and WSM 27
3. Potential Water Worlds: Future Scenarios 33
Scenario Analysis 33
Scenario Narratives 35
The Business-as-Usual Scenario 35
The Water Crisis Scenario 38
The Sustainable Water Use Scenario 40
Scenario Specification 44
4. Maintaining the Status Quo: The Business-
as-Usual Scenario 61
The Water Story 61
vi CONTENTS
Water Productivity 79
The Future for Food 89
Summary 106
5. Sustainable Water World or Water Crisis? 109
The Water Story 109
The Future for Food 118
Summary 136
6. Water Prices, Water Demand, Food Production,
and Environmental Flows 137
Increased Water Pricing Scenarios 138
Summary 152
7. Balancing Water for Food and the
Environment 155
Unsustainable Groundwater Use 155
Groundwater Overdraft Reduction 156
Environmental Demands for Water 164
Increase in Environmental Water Flows 165
Summary 173
8. Irrigated and Rainfed Agriculture: Options for
Food and Production Growth 177
Investing in Water Supply Expansion and Efficiency Enhancement 177
Getting More from Rainfed Agriculture 183
Summary 194
9. Implications for the Future: Meeting the
Challenge of Water Scarcity 197
Investment in Infrastructure and Water Supply 200
Water Management and Policy Reform 201
Crop Productivity and Rainfed Agriculture 205
Summary 206
References 209
Appendix A
Model Formulation and Implementation:
The Business-as-Usual Scenario 225
Appendix B
Business-as-Usual Scenario Projections
for 1995, 2010, and 2015 257
Contributors 309
Index 311
Tables
1.1 Scenario groupings, names, abbreviations, and descriptions 13
3.1 Rural, urban, and total population, 1995 and 2025 45
3.2 Gross domestic product per capita, 1995 and 2025 46
3.3 Basin efficiency and reservoir storage for irrigation and water supply under
business-as-usual, water crisis, and sustainable water use scenarios, 1995 and
2025 48
3.4 Annual maximum allowable water withdrawal for surface and groundwater
under business-as-usual, water crisis, and sustainable water use scenarios,
1995 and 2025 51
3.5 Potential irrigated area under die business-as-usual scenario, 1995 and
2025 53
3.6 Minimum committed flow for the environment as a percentage of annual
total renewable water under business-as-usual, water crisis, and sustainable
water use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 54
3.7 Percentage of households with access to piped water under business-
as-usual, water crisis, and sustainable water use scenarios, 1995 and
2025 56
4.1 Total water wirlidrawal by volume and as a percentage of renewable water,
1995, 2010, and 2025 62
4.2 Non-irrigation consumptive water use, 1995, 2010, and 2025 67
4.3 Per capita domestic water demand, 1995, 2010, and 2025 68
4.4 Per capita domestic water demand for connected/unconnected households
in rural and urban areas under the business-as-usual scenario, 1995 and
2025 69
4.5 Industrial water use intensity, 1995, 2010, and 2025 70
4.6 Potential and actual use of water irrigation and irrigation water supply relia-
bility, 1995, 2010, and 2025 71
4.7 Cereal demand and total cereal production under die business-as-usual sce-
nario, 1995 and 2025 91
viii TABLES
4.8 Demand for meat, soybeans, meals, and roots and tubers under die busi-
ness-as-usual scenario, 1995 and 2025 93
4.9 Production of meat, soybeans, meals, and roots and tubers under the busi-
ness-as-usual scenario, 1995 and 2025 94
4.10 Irrigated and rainfed cereal area under the business-as-usual scenario, 1995
and 2025 95
4.11 Irrigated and rainfed cereal yield under the business-as-usual scenario, 1995
and 2025 96
4.12 Relative irrigated cereal crop yields under the business-as-usual scenario,
1995 and 2025 97
4.13 Net food trade under the business-as-usual scenario, 1995 and 2025 98
4.14 World food prices under the business-as-usual scenario, 1995 and
2025 100
4.15 Irrigated and rainfed cereal production under the business-as-usual scenario,
1995 and 2025 104
5.1 Total and irrigation water consumption under business-as-usual, water cri-
sis, and sustainable water use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 110
5.2 Total mean water withdrawal under business-as-usual, water crisis, and sus-
tainable water use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 111
5.3 Beneficial irrigation water consumption under business-as-usual, water cri-
sis, and sustainable water use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 111
5.4 Irrigation water supply reliability under business-as-usual, water crisis, and
sustainable water use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 112
5.5 Domestic water consumption under business-as-usual, water crisis, and sus-
tainable water use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 114
5.6 Per capita potential domestic water demand for connected/unconnected
households in rural and urban areas under business-as-usual, water crisis,
and sustainable water use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 115
5.T Total industrial water demand and industrial water use intensity under busi-
ness-as-usual, water crisis, and sustainable water use scenarios, 1995 and
2025 116
5.8 Non-irrigation water supply reliability under business-as-usual, water crisis,
and sustainable water use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 117
5.9 Ratio of water withdrawal to total renewable water under business-as-usual,
water crisis, and sustainable water use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 118
5.10 Irrigated and rainfed cereal area under business-as-usual, water crisis, and
sustainable water use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 119
5.11 Irrigated and rainfed cereal yield under business-as-usual, water crisis, and
sustainable water use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 120
TABLES ix
5.12 Ratio of irrigated and rainfed yield to potential yield under business-
as-usual, water crisis, and sustainable water use scenarios, 1995 and
2025 122
5.13 Irrigated, rainfed, and total cereal production under business-as-usual, water
crisis, and sustainable water use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 123
5.14 World food prices under business-as-usual, water crisis, and sustainable
water use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 127
5.15 Cereal demand under business-as-usual, water crisis, and sustainable water
use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 129
5.16 Per capita cereal consumption under business-as-usual, water crisis, and sus-
tainable water use scenarios, 1995 and 2025 130
5.17 Net trade under business-as-usual, water crisis, and sustainable water use
scenarios, 1995 and 2025 130
6.1 Selected assumptions for the four higher water price scenarios 140
6.2 Water price elasticities 141
6.3 Elasticity of basin efficiency in terms of irrigation water pricing, various sce-
narios 143
6.4 Consumptive water use for non-irrigation sectors under business-as-usual
and higher price scenarios, 2021-25 144
6.5 Per capita domestic water demand under business-as-usual and higher price
scenarios, 1995 and 2021-25 145
6.6 Water wididrawal under business-as-usual and four higher price scenarios,
2021-25 146
6.7 Water consumption under business-as-usual and four higher price scenarios,
2021-25 147
6.8 Ratio of water withdrawal to total renewable water under business-as-usual
and four higher price scenarios, 2021—25 148
6.9 Irrigation water supply reliability under business-as-usual and four higher
price scenarios, 2021-25 149
6.10 Change in irrigated cereal production relative to the business-as-usual level
for four higher price scenarios, 2021-25 151
6.11 Net cereal trade under business-as-usual and four higher price scenarios,
2021-25 151
T.1 Total water withdrawal under business-as-usual and low groundwater
pumping scenarios, 1995 and 2021—25 158
7.2 Consumptive water use by sector under business-as-usual and low ground-
water pumping scenarios, 1995 and 2021-25 158
7.3 Cereal area harvested under business-as-usual and low groundwater pump-
ing scenarios, 1995 and 2021-25 159
X TABLES
7.4 Cereal yield under business-as-usual and low groundwater pumping scenar-
ios, 1995 and 2021-25 160
7.5 Cereal production under business-as-usual and low groundwater pumping
scenarios, 1995 and 2021-25 161
7.6 Cereal demand under business-as-usual and low groundwater pumping sce-
narios, 1995 and 2021-25 163
7.7 Basin efficiency and beneficial irrigation water consumption under busi-
ness-as-usual, high environmental flows, and high environmental flows and
high irrigation efficiency scenarios, 2020-25 166
7.8 Total water withdrawal under business-as-usual, high environmental flows,
and high environmental flows and high irrigation efficiency scenarios, 1995
and 2021-25 167
7.9 Consumptive water use by sector under business-as-usual, high environ-
mental flows, and high environmental flows and high irrigation efficiency
scenarios, 1995 and 2021-25 168
7.10 Irrigation water supply reliability under business-as-usual, high environ-
mental flows, and high environmental flows and high irrigation efficiency
scenarios, 1995 and 2021-25 169
7.11 Cereal area harvested under business-as-usual, high environmental flows,
and high environmental flows and high irrigation efficiency scenarios, 1995
and 2021-25 170
7.12 Cereal yield under business-as-usual, high environmental flows, and high
environmental flows and high irrigation efficiency scenarios, 1995 and
2021-25 171
7.13 Cereal production under business-as-usual, high environmental flows, and
high environmental flows and high irrigation efficiency scenarios, 1995 and
2021-25 171
7.14 Cereal demand under business-as-usual, high environmental flows, and
high environmental flows and high irrigation efficiency scenarios, 1995 and
2021-25 173
8.1 Basin efficiency, reservoir storage, and water withdrawal capacity under
business-as-usual and low investment in infrastructure scenarios,
1995-2025 178
8.2 Total water withdrawal under business-as-usual and low investment in
infrastructure scenarios, 1995 and 2021-25 179
8.3 Consumptive water use by sector under business-as-usual and low invest-
ment in infrastructure scenarios, 2021-25 180
8.4 Cereal area harvested under business-as-usual and low investment in infra-
structure scenarios, 1995 and 2021-25 180
TABLES xi
8.5 Cereal yield under business-as-usual and low investment in infrastructure
scenarios, 1995 and 2021-25 181
8.6 Cereal production under business-as-usual and low investment in infra-
structure scenarios, 1995 and 2021-25 182
8.7 Cereal demand under business-as-usual and low investment in infrastruc-
ture scenarios, 1995 and 2021-25 183
8.8 Rainfed and irrigated cereal area harvested under various scenarios,
2021-25 190
8.9 Rainfed and irrigated cereal yield under various scenarios, 2021-25 191
8.10 Rainfed and irrigated cereal production under various scenarios,
2021-25 192
8.11 Proportion of rainfed cereal production under various scenarios,
2021-25 192
8.12 World food prices under various scenarios, 2021-25 194
A.1 Input Data 252
A.2 Water demand and supply data 253
B.1 Water consumption, total and irrigation water 258
B.2 Water consumption, non-irrigation 260
B.3 Water withdrawal and the share of total renewable water 262
B.4 Water supply reliability—irrigation and non-irrigation 264
B.5 Irrigated and rainfed rice area, yield, and production, 1995 266
B.6 Irrigated and rainfed wheat area, yield, and production, 1995 268
B.7 Irrigated and rainfed maize area, yield and production, 1995 270
B.8 Irrigated and rainfed other coarse grain area, yield, and production,
1995 272
B.9 Irrigated and rainfed soybean area, yield, and production, 1995 274
B.10 Irrigated and rainfed rice area, yield, and production, 2010 276
B.11 Irrigated and rainfed wheat area, yield, and production, 2010 278
B.12 Irrigated and rainfed maize area, yield, and production, 2010 280
B.13 Irrigated and rainfed other coarse grain area, yield, and production,
2010 282
B.14 Irrigated and rainfed soybean area, yield, and production, 2010 284
B.15 Irrigated and rainfed rice area, yield, and production, 2025 286
B.16 Irrigated and rainfed wheat area, yield, and production, 2025 288
B.17 Irrigated and rainfed maize area, yield, and production, 2025 290
B.18 Irrigated and rainfed other coarse grain area, yield, and production,
2025 292
B.19 Irrigated and rainfed soybean area, yield, and production, 2025 294
B.20 Irrigated and rainfed roots and tubers area, yield, and, production,
1995 296
xii TABLES
B.21 Irrigated and rainfed roots and tubers area, yield, and production,
2010 298
B.22 Irrigated and rainfed roots and tubers area, yield, and production,
2025 300
B.23 Food demand and net trade for wheat, 1995, 2010, and 2025 302
B.24 Food demand and net trade for maize, 1995, 2010, and 2025 303
B.25 Food demand and net trade for other coarse grains, 1995, 2010, and
2025 304
B.26 Food demand and net trade for soybeans, 1995, 2010, and 2025 305
B.27 Food demand and net trade for rice, 1995, 2010, and 2025 306
B.28 Food demand and net trade for roots and tubers, 1995, 2010, and
2025 307
Figures
2.1 IMPACT-WATER: The structure and integration of the IMPACT and
water simulation models 28
2.2 IMPACT-WATER: Driving forces for scenario analysis 30
4.1 Coefficient of variation of irrigation water supply for the world, India, and
the Indian Luni River basin 76
4.2 Irrigation water depletion in the Indian Ganges River basin under the cli-
mate regime of 1961—90 77
4.3 Coefficient of variation of irrigation water supply and the average supply in
Nigeria during 1995-2025 78
4.4 Comparison of withdrawal capacity, average computed withdrawal, and
withdrawal under one hydrologic scenario under the climate regime of
1961-90 78
4.5 Water productivity of rice, 1995 80
4.6 Water productivity of total cereals excluding rice, 1995 81
4.7 Water productivity of total cereals in river basins in China, India, and the
United States excluding rice, 1995 82
4.8 Water productivity of irrigated rice, 1995-2025 84
4.9 Water productivity of irrigated cereals excluding rice, 1995—2025 85
4.10 Crop yield and water consumption of rice per hectare, 1995 and
2025 86
4.11 Crop yield and water consumption of cereals excluding rice, per hectare,
1995 and 2025 87
4.12 Water productivity for irrigated and rainfed rice in developing countries,
1995-2025 88
4.13 Water productivity for irrigated and rainfed cereals excluding rice, in devel-
oping countries, 1995-2025 88
4.14 Water productivity for irrigated and rainfed rice in developed countries,
1995-2025 89
4.15 Water productivity for irrigated and rainfed cereals excluding rice, in devel-
oped countries, 1995-2025 90
Xiv FIGURES
4.16 Cereal area, 1995 100
4.17 Cereal yield, 1995 101
4.18 Cereal production, 1995 101
4.19 Share of irrigated and rainfed production in cereal production increase
under the business-as-usual scenario, 1995-2025 105
5.1 Mean irrigation water supply reliability in developing countries under
business-as-usual, water crisis, and sustainable water use scenarios,
1995-2025 113
5.2 Contribution of rainfed cereals to additional cereal production globally and
in developed and developing countries under business-as-usual, water crisis,
and sustainable water use scenarios, 1995-2025 124
5.3 Relative irrigated cereal production in developing countries under
business-as-usual, water crisis, and sustainable water use scenarios,
1995-2025 127
5.4 Relative rainfed cereal production in developing countries under business-
as-usual, water crisis, and sustainable water use scenarios,
1995-2025 128
5.5 World prices for rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans under business-as-usual,
water crisis, and sustainable water use scenarios, 1995—2025 131
5.6 Average, maximum, and minimum world rice prices for 30 hydrologic
scenarios under business-as-usual and water crisis scenarios,
1995-2025 133
5.7 Average, maximum, and minimum world wheat prices for 30 hydrologic
scenarios under business-as-usual and water crisis scenarios,
1995-2025 134
5.8 Average, maximum, and minimum world soybean prices for 30 hydrologic
scenarios under business-as-usual and water crisis scenarios,
1995-2025 135
6.1 Industrial water demand as a function of water prices, 2025 142
6.2 Domestic water demand as a function of water prices, 2025 142
6.3 World food prices under business-as-usual and four higher water price sce-
narios, 2021-25 152
7.1 World food prices under business-as-usual and low groundwater pumping
scenarios, 2021-25 161
7.2 Net cereal trade under business-as-usual and low groundwater pumping
scenarios, 2021-25 164
7.3 World food prices under business-as-usual, high environmental flows,
and high environmental flows and high irrigation efficiency scenarios,
2021-25 174
7.4 Net cereal trade under business-as-usual, high environmental flows, and
high environmental flows and high irrigation efficiency scenarios,
2021-25 174
FIGURES xv
8.1 World food prices under business-as-usual and low investment in infrastruc-
ture scenarios, 1995 and 2021-25 182
8.2 Net cereal trade under business-as-usual and low investment in infrastruc-
ture scenarios, 1995 and 2021-25 184
A.1 Relative irrigated yield, area, and production versus relative crop evapotran-
spiration 231
A.2 IMPACT-WATER spatial elements 238
A.3 Connected flow among river basins, countries, regions 245
A.4 Flow chart of the IMPACT-WATER program 251
Boxes
2.1 Water demand definitions 21
2.2 Water supply definitions 23
4.1 Water scarce basins 63
4.2 Water scarce basins under the business-as-usual scenario: Growing
scarcity 65
5.1 Irrigation, environment and food production in water scarce basins 126
6.1 The role of water pricing in water scarce basins 150
7.1 Elimination of groundwater overdraft in water scarce basins 163
7.2 Irrigation and environmental uses in water scarce basins 172
8.1 Irrigated and rainfed production in selected water scarce basins 193
A.1 IMPACT countries, regions, and commodities 226
A.2 Definitions of IMPACT countries and regions 227
A.3 Model implementation procedure 249
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| id | DE-604.BV014757749 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T19:05:51Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0896296466 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2002015170 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-009993965 |
| oclc_num | 50643824 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-703 DE-M49 DE-BY-TUM DE-11 |
| owner_facet | DE-703 DE-M49 DE-BY-TUM DE-11 |
| physical | XXIV, 322 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| publishDate | 2002 |
| publishDateSearch | 2002 |
| publishDateSort | 2002 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Rosegrant, Mark W. Verfasser aut World water and food to 2025 dealing with scarcity Mark W. Rosegrant, Ximing Cai, Sarah A. Cline Washington, D.C. International Food Policy Research Institute 2002 XXIV, 322 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references ([209]-223) and index Prognose 2025 gnd rswk-swf Aliments - Approvisionnement - Prévision - Modèles économétriques Eau - Approvisionnement - Prévision - Modèles économétriques Vingt et unième siècle - Prévisions Ökonometrisches Modell Food supply Forecasting Econometric models Twenty-first century Forecasts Water-supply Forecasting Econometric models Wasserversorgung (DE-588)4064811-4 gnd rswk-swf Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd rswk-swf Lebensmittelversorgung (DE-588)4034917-2 gnd rswk-swf Lebensmittelproduktion (DE-588)4114379-6 gnd rswk-swf Wasserversorgung (DE-588)4064811-4 s Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 s DE-604 Lebensmittelproduktion (DE-588)4114379-6 s Lebensmittelversorgung (DE-588)4034917-2 s Prognose 2025 z Cai, Ximing Sonstige (DE-588)135611504 oth Cline, Sarah A. Sonstige oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009993965&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Rosegrant, Mark W. World water and food to 2025 dealing with scarcity Aliments - Approvisionnement - Prévision - Modèles économétriques Eau - Approvisionnement - Prévision - Modèles économétriques Vingt et unième siècle - Prévisions Ökonometrisches Modell Food supply Forecasting Econometric models Twenty-first century Forecasts Water-supply Forecasting Econometric models Wasserversorgung (DE-588)4064811-4 gnd Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd Lebensmittelversorgung (DE-588)4034917-2 gnd Lebensmittelproduktion (DE-588)4114379-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4064811-4 (DE-588)4043212-9 (DE-588)4034917-2 (DE-588)4114379-6 |
| title | World water and food to 2025 dealing with scarcity |
| title_auth | World water and food to 2025 dealing with scarcity |
| title_exact_search | World water and food to 2025 dealing with scarcity |
| title_full | World water and food to 2025 dealing with scarcity Mark W. Rosegrant, Ximing Cai, Sarah A. Cline |
| title_fullStr | World water and food to 2025 dealing with scarcity Mark W. Rosegrant, Ximing Cai, Sarah A. Cline |
| title_full_unstemmed | World water and food to 2025 dealing with scarcity Mark W. Rosegrant, Ximing Cai, Sarah A. Cline |
| title_short | World water and food to 2025 |
| title_sort | world water and food to 2025 dealing with scarcity |
| title_sub | dealing with scarcity |
| topic | Aliments - Approvisionnement - Prévision - Modèles économétriques Eau - Approvisionnement - Prévision - Modèles économétriques Vingt et unième siècle - Prévisions Ökonometrisches Modell Food supply Forecasting Econometric models Twenty-first century Forecasts Water-supply Forecasting Econometric models Wasserversorgung (DE-588)4064811-4 gnd Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd Lebensmittelversorgung (DE-588)4034917-2 gnd Lebensmittelproduktion (DE-588)4114379-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Aliments - Approvisionnement - Prévision - Modèles économétriques Eau - Approvisionnement - Prévision - Modèles économétriques Vingt et unième siècle - Prévisions Ökonometrisches Modell Food supply Forecasting Econometric models Twenty-first century Forecasts Water-supply Forecasting Econometric models Wasserversorgung Lebensmittelversorgung Lebensmittelproduktion |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009993965&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rosegrantmarkw worldwaterandfoodto2025dealingwithscarcity AT caiximing worldwaterandfoodto2025dealingwithscarcity AT clinesaraha worldwaterandfoodto2025dealingwithscarcity |