Analysis and management of animal populations: modeling, estimation, and decision making
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
San Diego, Calif. [u.a.]
Acad. Press
2002
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Publisher description Table of contents Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references (p. 767-791). - Hier auch später erschienene, unveränderte Nachdrucke |
| Beschreibung: | XVII, 817 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Tab. |
| ISBN: | 0127544062 9780127544069 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Analysis and management of animal populations |b modeling, estimation, and decision making |c Byron K. Williams ; James D. Nichols ; Michael J. Conroy |
| 264 | 1 | |a San Diego, Calif. [u.a.] |b Acad. Press |c 2002 | |
| 300 | |a XVII, 817 S. |b Ill., graph. Darst., Tab. | ||
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| 650 | 7 | |a Wilde dieren |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Mathematisches Modell | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Animal populations |x Estimates | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Animal populations |x Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Animal populations |x Statistical methods | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Wildlife management | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804129470082187264 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Analysis and
Management of
Animal Populations
Modeling, Estimation, and Decision Making
Byron K Williams
U S Geological Survey
Cooperative Research Units
Reston, Virginia
James D Nichols _ Michael J Conroy
U S Geological Survey ,, r• Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
Patuxent Wildlife Research Center DB Warnell School of Forest Resources
Laurel, Maryland — — University of Georgia
Athens, Georgia
® ACADEMIC PRESS An Elsevier Science Imprint
San Diego San Francisco New York Boston London Sydney Tokyo
Contents
Preface xiii
Acknowledgments xvii
PARTi
FRAMEWORK FOR MODELING,
ESTIMATION, AND
MANAGEMENT OF
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
CHAPTER
Introduction to Population Ecology
1 1 Some Definitions 3
1 2 Population Dynamics 4
1 3 Factors Affecting Populations 4
1 4 Management of Animal Populations 6
1 5 Individuals, Fitness, and Life History
Characteristics 7
1 6 Community Dynamics 9
1 7 Discussion 9
CHAPTER
Scientific Process in Animal Ecology
2 1 Causation in Animal Ecology 11
2 2 Approaches to the Investigation of Causes 12
2 3 Scientific Methods 13
2 4 Hypothesis Confirmation 16
2 5 Inductive Logic in Scientific Method 17
2 6 Statistical Inference 18
2 7 Investigating Complementary Hypotheses 18
2 8 Discussion 19
CHAPTER
Models and the Investigation of Populations
3 1 Types of Biological Models 22
3 2 Keys to Successful Model Use 22
3 3 Uses of Models in Population Biology 23
3 4 Determinants of Model Utility 28
3 5 Hypotheses, Models, and Science 30
3 6 Discussion 31
CHAPTER
Estimation and Hypothesis Testing
in Animal Ecology
4 1 Statistical Distributions 34
4 2 Parameter Estimation 42
4 3 Hypothesis Testing 50
4 4 Information-Theoretic Approaches 55
4 5 Bayesian Extension of Likelihood Theory 57
4 6 Discussion 58
vii
viii Contents
CHAPTER
Survey Sampling and the Estimation
of Population Parameters
5 1 Sampling Issues 60
5 2 Features of a Sampling Design 61
5 3 Simple Random and Stratified
Random Sampling 62
5 4 Other Sampling Approaches 67
5 5 Common Problems in Sampling Designs 74
5 6 Discussion 76
CHAPTER
Design of Experiments in Animal Ecology
6 1 Principles of Experimental Design 80
6 2 Completely Randomized Designs 83
6 3 Randomized Block Designs 89
6 4 Covariation and Analysis of Covariance 91
6 5 Hierarchical Designs 92
6 6 Random Effects and Nested Designs 97
6 7 Statistical Power and Experimental
Design 100
6 8 Constrained Experimental Designs and
Quasi-Experiments 102
6 9 Discussion 106
PART
iT~
DYNAMIC MODELING OF
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
CHAPTER
Principles of Model Development
and Assessment
7 1 Modeling Goals 113
7 2 Attributes of Population Models 114
7 3 Describing Population Models 117
7 4 Constructing a Population Model 122
7 5 Model Assessment 126
76A Systematic Approach to the Modeling of
Animal Populations 131
7 7 Discussion 134
CHAPTER
Traditional Models of Population Dynamics
8 1 Density-Independent Growth—The
Exponential Model 136
8 2 Density-Dependent Growth—The
Logistic Model 139
8 3 Cohort Models 141
8 4 Models with Age Structure 143
8 5 Models with Size Structure 157
8 6 Models with Geographic Structure 159
8 7 Lotka-Volterra Predator-Prey Models 161
8 8 Models of Competing Populations 164
89A General Model for Interacting Species 170
8 10 Discussion 171
CHAPTER
Model Identification with Time Series Data
9 1 Model Identification Based on Ordinary
Least Squares 174
9 2 Other Measures of Model Fit 176
9 3 Correlated Estimates of Population Size 178
9 4 Optimal Identification 178
9 5 Identifying Models with Population Size as a
Function of Time 179
9 6 Identifying Models Using Lagrangian
Multipliers 181
9 7 Stability of Parameter Estimates 181
9 8 Identifying System Properties in the Absence of
a Specified Model 182
9 9 Discussion 184
CHAPTER
Stochastic Processes in Population Models
10 1 Bernoulli Counting Processes 189
10 2 Poisson Counting Processes 192
10 3 Discrete Markov Processes 197
10 4 Continuous Markov Processes 202
10 5 Semi-Markov Processes 205
10 6 Markov Decision Processes 207
10 7 Brownian Motion 210
10 8 Other Stochastic Processes 213
10 9 Discussion 220
Contents ix
CHAPTER
ii
The Use of Models in Conservation
and Management
11 1 Dynamics of Harvested Populations 223
11 2 Conservation and Extinction
of Populations 231
11 3 Discussion 237
PART
III
ESTIMATION METHODS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
CHAPTER
Estimating Abundance Based on Counts
12 1 Overview of Abundance Estimation 242
12 2 A Canonical Population Estimator 243
12 3 Population Censuses 245
12 4 Complete Detectability of Individuals on
Sample Units of Equal Area 245
12 5 Complete Detectability of Individuals on
Sample Units of Unequal Area 247
12 6 Partial Detectability of Individuals
on Sample Units 250
12 7 Indices to Population Abundance
or Density 257
12 8 Discussion 261
CHAPTER
Estimating Abundance with
Distance-Based Methods
13 1 Point-to-Object Methods 263
13 2 Line Transect Sampling 265
13 3 Point Sampling 278
13 4 Design of Line Transect and Point
Sampling Studies 281
13 5 Other Issues 286
13 6 Discussion 287
CHAPTER
Estimating Abundance for
Closed Populations with
Mark-Recapture Methods
14 1 Two-Sample Lincoln-Petersen Estimator 290
14 2 K-Sample Capture-Recapture Models 296
14 3 Density Estimation with
Capture-Recapture 314
14 4 Removal Methods 320
14 5 Change-in-Ratio Methods 325
14 6 Discussion 331
CHAPTER
Estimation of Demographic Parameters
15 1 Detectability and Demographic
Rate Parameters 334
15 2 Analysis of Age Frequencies 337
15 3 Analysis of Discrete Survival and Nest
Success Data 343
15 4 Analysis of Failure Times 351
15 5 Random Effects and Known-Fate Data 361
15 6 Discussion 362
CHAPTER
Estimation of Survival Rates
with Band Recoveries
16 1 Single-Age Models 366
16 2 Multiple-Age Models 383
16 3 Reward Studies for Estimating
Reporting Rates 391
16 4 Analysis of Band Recoveries for
Nonharvested Species 398
16 5 Poststratification of Recoveries and Analysis
of Movements 402
16 6 Design of Banding Studies 406
16 7 Discussion 414
X Contents
CHAPTER
Estimating Survival, Movement, and
Other State Transitions with
Mark-Recapture Methods
17 1 Single-Age Models 418
17 2 Multiple-Age Models 438
17 3 Multistate Models 454
17 4 Reverse-Time Models 468
17 5 Mark-Recapture with Auxiliary Data 476
17 6 Study Design 489
17 7 Discussion 492
CHAPTER
Estimating Abundance and Recruitment
with Mark-Recapture Methods
18 1 Data Structure 496
18 2 Jolly-Seber Approach 497
18 3 Superpopulation Approach 508
18 4 Pradel s Temporal Symmetry Approach 511
18 5 Relationships among Approaches 518
18 6 Study Design 520
18 7 Discussion 522
CHAPTER
Combining Closed and-Open
Mark-Recapture Models:
The Robust Design
19 1 Data Structure 524
19 2 Ad Hoc Approach 529
19 3 Likelihood-Based Approach 535
19 4 Special Estimation Problems 538
19 5 Study Design 552
19 6 Discussion 553
CHAPTER
Estimation of Community Parameters
20 1 An Analogy between Populations and
Communities 556
20 2 Estimation of Species Richness 557
20 3 Estimating Parameters of Community
Dynamics 561
20 4 Discussion 572
PART
IV
DECISION ANALYSIS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
CHAPTER
Optimal Decision Making in
Population Biology
21 1 Optimization and Population Dynamics 578
21 2 Objective Functions 579
21 3 Stationary Optimization under Equilibrium
Conditions 579
21 4 Stationary Optimization under Nonequilibrium
Conditions 580
21 5 Discussion 581
CHAPTER
Traditional Approaches to Optimal
Decision Analysis
22 1 The Geometry of Optimization 584
22 2 Unconstrained Optimization 585
22 3 Classical Programming 593
22 4 Nonlinear Programming 597
22 5 Linear Programming 601
22 6 Discussion 606
CHAPTER
Modern Approaches to Optimal
Decision Analysis
23 1 Calculus of Variations 608
23 2 Pontryagin s Maximum Principle 618
23 3 Dynamic Programming 627
23 4 Heuristic Approaches 638
23 5 Discussion 639
Contents xi
CHAPTER
Uncertainty, Learning, and
Decision Analysis
24 1 Decision Analysis in Natural Resource
Conservation 644
24 2 General Framework for Decision Analysis 649
24 3 Uncertainty and the Control of
Dynamic Resources 650
24 4 Optimal Control with a Single Model 651
24 5 Optimal Control with Multiple Models 652
24 6 Adaptive Optimization and Learning 653
24 7 Expected Value of Perfect Information 654
24 8 Partial Observability 655
24 9 Generalizations of Adaptive Optimization 656
24 10 Accounting for All Sources of Uncertainty 658
24 11 Passive Adaptive Optimization 658
24 12 Discussion 660
CHAPTER
Case Study: Management of the Sport
Harvest of North American Waterfowl
25 1 Background and History 664
25 2 Components of a Regulatory Process 667
25 3 Adaptive Harvest Management 671
25 4 Modeling Population Dynamics 672
25 5 Harvest Objectives 676
25 6 Regulatory Alternatives 677
25 7 Identifying Optimal Regulations 679
25 8 Some Ongoing Issues in: Waterfowl
Harvest Management 680
25 9 Discussion 684
Appendix A
Conditional Probability and Bayes Theorem 685
Appendix B
Matrix Algebra 687
B l Definitions
B 2 Matrix Addition and Multiplication
B 3 Matrix Determinants
B 4 Inverse of a Matrix
B 5 Orthogonal and Orthonormal Matrices
B 6 Trace of a Matrix
B 7 Eigenvectors and Eigenvalues
B 8 Linear and Quadratic Forms
B 9 Positive-Definite and Semidefinite Matrices
B 10 Matrix Differentiation
Appendix C
Differential Equations 693
C l First-Order Linear Homogeneous Equations
C 2 Nonlinear Homogeneous Equations—
Stability Analysis
C 3 Graphical Methods
Appendix D
Difference Equations 709
D l First-Order Linear Homogeneous Equations
D 2 Nonlinear Homogeneous Equations—Stability
Analysis
Appendix E
Some Probability Distributions and Their
Properties 721
E l Discrete Distributions
E 2 Continuous Distributions
Appendix F
Methods for Estimating Statistical Variation 733
F l Distribution-Based Variance Estimation
F 2 Empirical Variance Estimation
F 3 Estimating Variances and Covariances with the
Information Matrix
F 4 Approximating Variance with the Delta Method
F 5 Jackknife Estimators of Mean and Variance
F 6 Bootstrap Estimation
Appendix G
Computer Software for Population and Community
Estimation 739
G l Estimation of Abundance and Density for
Closed Populations
G 2 Estimation of Abundance and Demographic
Parameters for Open Populations
G 3 Estimation of Community Parameters
G 4 Software Availability
Appendix H
The Mathematics of Optimization 745
H l Unconstrained Optimization
H 2 Classical Programming
H 3 Nonlinear Programming
H 4 Linear Programming
H 5 Calculus of Variations
H 6 Pontryagin s Maximum Principle
H 7 Dynamic Programming
References 767
Index 793
|
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| discipline | Biologie Forstwissenschaft Geographie |
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| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-20 DE-M49 DE-BY-TUM DE-Eb1 DE-11 |
| owner_facet | DE-20 DE-M49 DE-BY-TUM DE-Eb1 DE-11 |
| physical | XVII, 817 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Tab. |
| publishDate | 2002 |
| publishDateSearch | 2002 |
| publishDateSort | 2002 |
| publisher | Acad. Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Williams, Byron K. Verfasser aut Analysis and management of animal populations modeling, estimation, and decision making Byron K. Williams ; James D. Nichols ; Michael J. Conroy San Diego, Calif. [u.a.] Acad. Press 2002 XVII, 817 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Tab. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references (p. 767-791). - Hier auch später erschienene, unveränderte Nachdrucke Animaux - Populations - Modèles mathématiques Animaux - Populations - Méthodes statistiques Faune - Aménagement Modellen gtt Natuurbeheer gtt Populatiedynamica gtt Wilde dieren gtt Mathematisches Modell Animal populations Estimates Animal populations Mathematical models Animal populations Statistical methods Wildlife management Populationsbiologie (DE-588)4046800-8 gnd rswk-swf Tiere (DE-588)4060087-7 gnd rswk-swf Wildtiermanagement (DE-588)7532646-2 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Tiere (DE-588)4060087-7 s Populationsbiologie (DE-588)4046800-8 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s DE-604 Wildtiermanagement (DE-588)7532646-2 s b DE-604 Nichols, James D. Verfasser aut Conroy, Michael James Verfasser aut http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/els031/2001094375.html Publisher description http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/els031/2001094375.html Table of contents HEBIS Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009985409&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Williams, Byron K. Nichols, James D. Conroy, Michael James Analysis and management of animal populations modeling, estimation, and decision making Animaux - Populations - Modèles mathématiques Animaux - Populations - Méthodes statistiques Faune - Aménagement Modellen gtt Natuurbeheer gtt Populatiedynamica gtt Wilde dieren gtt Mathematisches Modell Animal populations Estimates Animal populations Mathematical models Animal populations Statistical methods Wildlife management Populationsbiologie (DE-588)4046800-8 gnd Tiere (DE-588)4060087-7 gnd Wildtiermanagement (DE-588)7532646-2 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4046800-8 (DE-588)4060087-7 (DE-588)7532646-2 (DE-588)4114528-8 |
| title | Analysis and management of animal populations modeling, estimation, and decision making |
| title_auth | Analysis and management of animal populations modeling, estimation, and decision making |
| title_exact_search | Analysis and management of animal populations modeling, estimation, and decision making |
| title_full | Analysis and management of animal populations modeling, estimation, and decision making Byron K. Williams ; James D. Nichols ; Michael J. Conroy |
| title_fullStr | Analysis and management of animal populations modeling, estimation, and decision making Byron K. Williams ; James D. Nichols ; Michael J. Conroy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis and management of animal populations modeling, estimation, and decision making Byron K. Williams ; James D. Nichols ; Michael J. Conroy |
| title_short | Analysis and management of animal populations |
| title_sort | analysis and management of animal populations modeling estimation and decision making |
| title_sub | modeling, estimation, and decision making |
| topic | Animaux - Populations - Modèles mathématiques Animaux - Populations - Méthodes statistiques Faune - Aménagement Modellen gtt Natuurbeheer gtt Populatiedynamica gtt Wilde dieren gtt Mathematisches Modell Animal populations Estimates Animal populations Mathematical models Animal populations Statistical methods Wildlife management Populationsbiologie (DE-588)4046800-8 gnd Tiere (DE-588)4060087-7 gnd Wildtiermanagement (DE-588)7532646-2 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Animaux - Populations - Modèles mathématiques Animaux - Populations - Méthodes statistiques Faune - Aménagement Modellen Natuurbeheer Populatiedynamica Wilde dieren Mathematisches Modell Animal populations Estimates Animal populations Mathematical models Animal populations Statistical methods Wildlife management Populationsbiologie Tiere Wildtiermanagement |
| url | http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/els031/2001094375.html http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/els031/2001094375.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009985409&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT williamsbyronk analysisandmanagementofanimalpopulationsmodelingestimationanddecisionmaking AT nicholsjamesd analysisandmanagementofanimalpopulationsmodelingestimationanddecisionmaking AT conroymichaeljames analysisandmanagementofanimalpopulationsmodelingestimationanddecisionmaking |