Real options analysis: tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions
CD-ROM contains: Real Options Analysis Toolkit (Demo) -- Microsoft .Net Framework -- Crystal Ball Simulation (Trial) -- Examples and problems from text.
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Hoboken, NJ
Wiley
2002
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Wiley finance series
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Table of contents Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | CD-ROM contains: Real Options Analysis Toolkit (Demo) -- Microsoft .Net Framework -- Crystal Ball Simulation (Trial) -- Examples and problems from text. |
| Beschreibung: | XXVII, 386 S. Ill., graph. Darst. 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) |
| ISBN: | 047125696X |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Real options analysis |b tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions |c Johnathan Mun |
| 264 | 1 | |a Hoboken, NJ |b Wiley |c 2002 | |
| 300 | |a XXVII, 386 S. |b Ill., graph. Darst. |e 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 0 | |a Wiley finance series | |
| 520 | 3 | |a CD-ROM contains: Real Options Analysis Toolkit (Demo) -- Microsoft .Net Framework -- Crystal Ball Simulation (Trial) -- Examples and problems from text. | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Options réelles (Finances) | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Real options (Finance) | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804129323627577344 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | !3U!B Of uU!!iU!!iS
List of Figures xix
Acknowledgments xxv
Preface xxvii
PART ONE Theory 1
CHAPTER SUMMARIES 3
Chapter 1: A New Paradigm? 3
Chapter 2: Traditional Valuation Approaches 4
Chapter 3: Real Options Analysis 5
Chapter 4: The Real Options Process 6
Chapter 5: Real Options, Financial Options, Monte Carlo
Simulation, and Optimization 7
CHAPTER 1 A HEW PARADIGM? 9
Introduction 9
A Paradigm Shift 9
Expansion and Compound Options: The Case of the
Operating System 11
Expansion Options: The Case of the e Business Initiative 13
Expansion and Sequential Options: The Case of the
Pharmaceutical R D 15
Expansion and Switching Options: The Case of the Oil
and Gas Exploration and Production 17
Abandonment Options: The Case of the Manufacturer 19
Expansion and Barrier Options: The Case of the Lost
Venture Capitalist 20
XtV TABLE OF CONTENTS
Compound Expansion Options: The Case of the
Internet Start Up 23
The Real Options Solution 24
Issues to Consider 24
Industry Leaders Embracing Real Options 26
What the Experts Are Saying 28
Summary 30
Chapter 1 Questions 31
Appendix 1A The Timken Company on Real Options in
R D and Manufacturing 33
Appendix IB Schlumberger on Real Options in Oil and Gas 36
Appendix 1C Intellectual Property Economics on Real Options
in Patent and Intangible Valuation 42
Appendix ID Gemplus on Real Options in High Tech R8cD 45
Appendix IE Sprint on Real Options in Telecommunications 49
CHAPTER 2 Traditional Valuation Approaches 55
Introduction 55
The Traditional Views 55
Practical Issues Using Traditional Valuation Methodologies 57
Summary 66
Chapter 2 Questions 66
Appendix 2A Financial Statement Analysis 67
Appendix 2B Discount Rate versus Risk Free Rate 74
CHAPTER 3 Real Options Analysis 77
Introduction 77
The Fundamental Essence of Real Options 77
The Basics of Real Options 79
A Simplified Example of Real Options in Action 79
Advanced Approaches to Real Options 81
Why Are Real Options Important? 82
Comparing Traditional Approaches with Real Options 85
Summary 92
Chapter 3 Questions 92
Table of Contents XV
CHAPTER 4 The Heal Options Process 93
Introduction 93
Critical Steps in Performing Real Options Analysis 93
Summary 96
Chapter 4 Questions 98
CHAPTER 5 Real Options, Financial Options, Monte Carlo
Simulation, and Optimization 99
Introduction 99
Real Options versus Financial Options 99
Monte Carlo Simulation 102
Summary 107
Chapter 5 Questions 109
Appendix 5A Financial Options 111
Appendix 5B Simulation 114
Appendix 5C Forecasting 124
Appendix 5D Optimization 126
PART TWO Application 133
CHAPTER SUMMARIES 185
Chapter 6: Behind the Scenes 135
Chapter 7: Real Options Models 136
Chapter 8: Advanced Options Problems 136
Chapter 9: Real Options Analysis Toolkit Software (CD ROM) 137
Chapter 10: Results Interpretation and Presentation 137
CHAPTER 0 Behind the Scenes 139
Introduction 139
Real Options: Behind the Scenes 139
Binomial Lattices 143
The Look and Feel of Uncertainty 146
A Firm s Real Options Provide Value in the Face of Uncertainty 149
Binomial Lattices as a Discrete Simulation of Uncertainty 151
nri TABLE OF CONTENTS
Granularity Leads to Precision 154
An Intuitive Look at the Binomial Equations 158
Frolicking in a Risk Neutral World 163
Summary 168
Chapter 6 Questions 168
CHAPTER 7 Baal Options Models 171
Introduction 171
Option to Abandon 171
Option to Expand 175
Option to Contract 178
Option to Choose 181
Compound Options 185
Changing Strikes 188
Changing Volatility 189
Sequential Compound Option 191
Extension to the Binomial Models 194
Summary 195
Chapter 7 Questions 195
Appendix 7A Volatility Estimates 197
Appendix 7B Black Scholes in Action 203
Appendix 7C Binomial Path Dependent and
Market Replicating Portfolios 205
Appendix 7D Single State Static Binomial Example 210
Appendix 7E Sensitivity Analysis with Delta, Gamma, Rho,
Theta, Vega, and Xi 215
Appendix 7F Reality Checks 220
Appendix 7G Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to
Solve Real Options 223
Appendix 7H Trinomial Lattices 230
Appendix 71 Non Recombining Lattices 232
CHAPTER a Advanced Options Problems 241
Introduction 241
The Advanced Problems 241
Decision Trees 242
Exit and Abandonment Options 245
Table of Contents XVil
Compound Options 246
Timing Options 247
Solving Timing Options Calculated Using Stochastic
Optimization 247
Switching Options 252
Summary 256
Chapter 8 Questions 256
Appendix 8A Stochastic Processes 257
Appendix 8B Differential Equations for a Deterministic Case 260
Appendix 8C Exotic Options Formulae 263
CHAPTER 9 Real Options Analysis Toolkit Software (CD ROM) 277
Introduction 277
Introduction to the Real Options Analysis Toolkit
Software CD ROM 277
Creating and Solving a Customized Option Using the Software 281
Advanced Real Options Models in the Software 285
Summary 291
Chapter 9 Exercises 291
Appendix 9A Real Options Analysis Toolkit s Function
Description for Excel 293
Appendix 9B Getting Started with Crystal Ball® Monte
Carlo Simulation 305
Appendix 9C Resource Optimization Using Crystal Ball s®
Opt Quest Software 312
CHAPTER 10 Results Interpretation and Presentation 817
Introduction 317
Comparing Real Options Analysis with Traditional
Financial Analysis 318
The Evaluation Process 321
Summary of the Results 324
Comparing across Different Sized Projects 325
Comparing Risk and Return of Multiple Projects 326
Impact to Bottom Line 327
Critical Success Factors and Sensitivity Analysis 328
Risk Analysis and Simulation on NPV 329
Break Even Analysis and Payback Periods 329
Discount Rate Analysis 331
Real Options Analysis Assumptions 332
Real Options Analysis 333
Real Options Risk Analysis 334
Summary 335
Chapter 10 Questions 335
Appendix 10A Summary of Articles 337
CHAPTER 2 Traditional Valuation Approaches
Figure 2.1 Applying Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Figure 2.2 Shortcomings of Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Figure 2.3 Using the Appropriate Analysis
Figure 2.4 An Analytical Perspective
Appendix 2A Financial Statement Analysis
Figure 2A. 1 Full Year versus Mid Year Discounting
Figure 2A.2 End of Period versus Beginning of Period Discounting
CHAPTER 3 Real Options Analysis
Figure 3.1 Why Optionality Is Important
Figure 3.2 If We Wait until Uncertainty Becomes Resolved
Figure 3.3 Realistic Payoff Schedule
Figure 3.4 Discounted Cash Flow Model
Figure 3.5 Tornado Diagram and Scenario Analysis
Figure 3.6 Simulation
Figure 3.7 Real Options Analysis (Active versus Passive Strategies)
Figure 3.8 Analysis Observations
Figure 3.9 Analysis Conclusions
CHAPTER 4 The Real Options Process
Figure 4.1 Real Options Process
CHAPTER 5 Real Options, Financial Options, Monte Carlo
Simulation, and Optimization
Figure 5.1 Financial Options versus Real Options
Figure 5.2 Option Payoff Charts
Figure 5.3 The Few Most Basic Distributions
Figure 5.4 The Flaw of Averages
Figure 5.5 The Need for Simulation
Figure 5.6 Simulation in Excel
H LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 5.7 Monte Carlo Simulation
Figure 5.8 Lognormal Simulation
Appendix SB Simulation
Figure 5B.1 Number of Employees and Hourly Wages
Figure 5B.2 Probability and Hourly Wages
Appendix 5D Optimization
Figure 5D.1 Deterministic Optimization Model
Figure 5D.2 Optimization with Uncertainty Model
CHAPTER B Behind the Scenes
Figure 6.1 Three Time Steps (Recombining Lattice)
Figure 6.2 Two Time Steps (Non Recombining Lattice)
Figure 6.3 Binomial Lattice of the Underlying Asset Value
Figure 6.4 Straight Line Discounted Cash Flow
Figure 6.5 Discounted Cash Flow with Simulation
Figure 6.6 The Face of Uncertainty
Figure 6.7 The Real Options Intuition
Figure 6.8 The Cone of Uncertainty
Figure 6.9 Discrete Simulation Using Binomial Lattices
Figure 6.10 Volatility and Binomial Lattices
Figure 6.11 European Option Example
Figure 6.12 European Option Underlying Lattice
Figure 6.13 European Option Valuation Lattice
Figure 6.14 More Time Steps, Higher Accuracy
Figure 6.15 More Steps, More Granularity, More Accuracy
Figure 6.16 The Lattice Equations
Figure 6.17 Up and Down Lattice Equations
Figure 6.18 Risk Neutral Probability Equation
Figure 6.19 A Risk Neutral World
Figure 6.20 Solving a DCF Model with a Binomial Lattice
Figure 6.21 Real Options and Net Present Value
CHAPTER 7 Real Options Models
Figure 7.1 Abandonment Option (Underlying Lattice)
Figure 7.2 Abandonment Option (Valuation Lattice)
Figure 7.3 Expansion Option (Underlying Lattice)
Figure 7.4 Expansion Option (Valuation Lattice)
Figure 7.5 Contraction Option (Underlying Lattice)
Figure 7.6 Contraction Option (Valuation Lattice)
Figure 7.7 Option to Choose (Underlying Lattice)
Figure 7.8 Option to Choose (Valuation Lattice)
List of Figures XXf
Figure 7.9 Compound Option (Underlying Lattice)
Figure 7.10 Compound Option (Equity Lattice)
Figure 7.11 Compound Option (Valuation Lattice)
Figure 7.12 Changing Strike Option (Underlying Lattice)
Figure 7.13 Changing Strike Option (Valuation Lattice)
Figure 7.14 Changing Volatility Option (Underlying Lattice)
Figure 7.15 Changing Volatility Option (Valuation Lattice)
Figure 7.16 Sequential Compound Option (Underlying Lattice)
Figure 7.17 Sequential Compound Option (Equity Lattice)
Figure 7.18 Sequential Compound Option (Valuation Lattice)
Figure 7.19 Sequential Compound Option (Combined Lattice)
Figure 7.20 Extension to the Binomial Models
Appendix 7A Volatility Estimates
Figure 7A.1 Lognormal 10 90 Percentiles
Figure 7A.2 Lognormal Mean and Standard Deviation
Appendix 7C Binomial Path Dependent and
Market Replicating Portfolios
Figure 7C. 1 Generic Binomial Lattice Structure
Figure 7C.2 Arbitrary Naming Convention
Figure 7C.3 Results of Analysis
Appendix 7D Single State Static Binomial Example
Figure 7D. 1 Cost Structure
Appendix 76 Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Solve Real Options
Figure 7G. 1 Path Dependent Simulation Approach to Solving
Real Options
Figure 7G.2 Path Dependent Simulation Forecasting Results
Figure 7G.3 Simulating Options Ranges
Figure 7G.4 Simulating Options Ranges Forecast Results
Appendix 7H Trinomial Lattices
Figure 7H.1 Trinomial Tree
Appendix 71 Non Recomblnlng Lattices
Figure 71.1 Non Recombining Underlying Asset Lattice
Figure 71.2 Non Recombining Valuation Lattice
Figure 71.3 Recombining Underlying Asset Lattice
Figure 71.4 Recombining Valuation Lattice
Figure 71.5 Frequency of Occurrence in a Recombining Lattice
Figure 71.6 Probability Distribution of the End Nodes on a
Recombining Lattice
XXH LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 71.7 Non Recombining Underlying Asset Lattice for a
Changing Volatility Option f
Figure 71.8 Non Recombining Valuation Lattice for a Changing
Volatility Option
Figure 71.9 Solving the Underlying Asset Lattice Using Multiple |
Recombining Lattices
Figure 71.10 Solving the Valuation Lattice Using Multiple
Recombining Lattices
CHAPTER 8 Advanced Options Problems
Figure 8.1 Project Selection and Prioritization
Figure 8.2 Decision Tree Analysis
Figure 8.3 Exit Option with a Barrier
Figure 8.4 Multiple Complex Compound Option
Figure 8.5 Timing Option
Figure 8.6 Stochastic Optimization
Appendix 8B Differential Equations for a Deterministic Case
Figure 8B.1 Linear Programming
CHAPTER 8 Real Options Analysis Toolkit Software (CD ROM)
Figure 9.1 Real Options Analysis Toolkit
Figure 9.2 Abandonment Option
Figure 9.3 Chooser Option
Figure 9.4 Customized Real Options Dialog Box with
Simple Statement
Figure 9.5 Customized Options
Figure 9.6 Pricing Lattice Dialog Box
Figure 9.7 Pricing Lattice
Figure 9.8 Customized Real Options Dialog Box with
Complex Statement
Figure 9.9 Valuation Equations
Figure 9.10 Valuation Lattice Dialog Box
Figure 9.11 Valuation Lattice
Figure 9.12 Volatility Estimation Model
Figure 9.13 American Call Approximation
Figure 9.14 Barrier Options
Figure 9.15 Optimal Timing
Figure 9.16 Stochastic Prioritization
Figure 9.17 Stochastic Valuation
Figure 9.18 Multiple Sequential Compound
List of Figures XXiH
Appendix 9B Getting Started with Crystal Ball® Monte
Carlo Simulation
Figure 9B.1 Icon Bar on Crystal Ball®
Figure 9B.2 Sample Simulation DCF without Colors
Figure 9B.3 Distribution Gallery
Figure 9B.4 Discount Rate Using Mean and Standard Deviation
Figure 9B.5 Parameter Drop Down Box
Figure 9B.6 Discount Rate Using 5 Percent and 95 Percent
Figure 9B.7 Sample Simulation DCF
Figure 9B.8 Forecast Net Present Value Frequency Chart
Figure 9B.9 Forecast Net Present Value
Appendix 9C Resource Optimization Using Crystal Ball s®
Opt Quest Software
Figure 9C. 1 Optimization Example
Figure 9C.2 Defining Decision Variables Using Continuous
Optimization Steps
Figure 9C.3 Defining Decision Variables Using Discrete
Optimization Steps
Figure 9C.4 Decision Variables in Optimization
Figure 9C.5 Sum of Weights Equals One Constraint
Figure 9C.6 Objective Maximization
Figure 9C.7 Results on Optimization
CHAPTER 10 Results Interpretation and Presentation
Figure 10.1 Enhanced Return with Risk Reduction
Figure 10.2 Real Options Process Summary
Figure 10.3 Project Comparison (Risk and Return)
Figure 10.4 Project Comparison (Common Sizing)
Figure 10.5 Project Comparison (Risk Return Profiling)
Figure 10.6 Impact to Bottom Line
Figure 10.7 Critical Success Factors
Figure 10.8 Project Based Risk Analysis
Figure 10.9 Simulated Discounted Payback Analysis
Figure 10.10 Discount Rate Analysis
Figure 10.11 Real Options Assumptions
Figure 10.12 Real Options Analysis
Figure 10.13 Real Options Risk Analysis
|
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| dewey-sort | 3332.63 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV014535437 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T19:03:19Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 047125696X |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2002008978 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-009890416 |
| oclc_num | 248797249 |
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| owner | DE-1049 DE-N2 DE-Aug4 DE-11 |
| owner_facet | DE-1049 DE-N2 DE-Aug4 DE-11 |
| physical | XXVII, 386 S. Ill., graph. Darst. 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) |
| publishDate | 2002 |
| publishDateSearch | 2002 |
| publishDateSort | 2002 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Wiley finance series |
| spelling | Mun, Johnathan Verfasser aut Real options analysis tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions Johnathan Mun Hoboken, NJ Wiley 2002 XXVII, 386 S. Ill., graph. Darst. 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Wiley finance series CD-ROM contains: Real Options Analysis Toolkit (Demo) -- Microsoft .Net Framework -- Crystal Ball Simulation (Trial) -- Examples and problems from text. Options réelles (Finances) Real options (Finance) Optionspreistheorie (DE-588)4135346-8 gnd rswk-swf Investitionsrechnung (DE-588)4027575-9 gnd rswk-swf Realoption (DE-588)4752163-6 gnd rswk-swf Investitionsrechnung (DE-588)4027575-9 s Optionspreistheorie (DE-588)4135346-8 s DE-604 Realoption (DE-588)4752163-6 s 1\p DE-604 http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/wiley024/2002008978.html Table of contents HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009890416&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Mun, Johnathan Real options analysis tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions Options réelles (Finances) Real options (Finance) Optionspreistheorie (DE-588)4135346-8 gnd Investitionsrechnung (DE-588)4027575-9 gnd Realoption (DE-588)4752163-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4135346-8 (DE-588)4027575-9 (DE-588)4752163-6 |
| title | Real options analysis tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions |
| title_auth | Real options analysis tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions |
| title_exact_search | Real options analysis tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions |
| title_full | Real options analysis tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions Johnathan Mun |
| title_fullStr | Real options analysis tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions Johnathan Mun |
| title_full_unstemmed | Real options analysis tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions Johnathan Mun |
| title_short | Real options analysis |
| title_sort | real options analysis tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions |
| title_sub | tools and techniques for valuing strategic investments and decisions |
| topic | Options réelles (Finances) Real options (Finance) Optionspreistheorie (DE-588)4135346-8 gnd Investitionsrechnung (DE-588)4027575-9 gnd Realoption (DE-588)4752163-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Options réelles (Finances) Real options (Finance) Optionspreistheorie Investitionsrechnung Realoption |
| url | http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/wiley024/2002008978.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009890416&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT munjohnathan realoptionsanalysistoolsandtechniquesforvaluingstrategicinvestmentsanddecisions |