Environmental foresight and models: a manifesto
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Amsterdam
Elsevier
2002
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. ed. |
| Schriftenreihe: | Developments in environmental modelling
22 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | xvi, 473 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 008044086X |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000zcb4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV014515002 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 20040205 | ||
| 007 | t | ||
| 008 | 020603s2002 ne d||| |||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 020 | |a 008044086X |9 0-08-044086-X | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)48383588 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV014515002 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e aacr | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 044 | |a ne |c NL | ||
| 049 | |a DE-12 |a DE-634 | ||
| 050 | 0 | |a GE45.M37 | |
| 082 | 0 | |a 363.7/001/5118 |2 21 | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Environmental foresight and models |b a manifesto |c ed. by M. B. Beck |
| 250 | |a 1. ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Amsterdam |b Elsevier |c 2002 | |
| 300 | |a xvi, 473 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a Developments in environmental modelling |v 22 | |
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Sciences de l'environnement - Modèles mathématiques | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Mathematisches Modell | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Environmental sciences |x Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Zukunft |0 (DE-588)4068097-6 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Mathematisches Modell |0 (DE-588)4114528-8 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Umweltveränderung |0 (DE-588)4304982-5 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 655 | 7 | |0 (DE-588)4143413-4 |a Aufsatzsammlung |2 gnd-content | |
| 689 | 0 | 0 | |a Umweltveränderung |0 (DE-588)4304982-5 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 1 | |a Zukunft |0 (DE-588)4068097-6 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 2 | |a Mathematisches Modell |0 (DE-588)4114528-8 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | |5 DE-604 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Beck, Michael B. |d 1948- |e Sonstige |0 (DE-588)128735163 |4 oth | |
| 830 | 0 | |a Developments in environmental modelling |v 22 |w (DE-604)BV000006614 |9 22 | |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m HBZ Datenaustausch |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009886242&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-009886242 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804129316619943936 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Environmental foresight and models
Autor: Beck, M. Bruce
Jahr: 2002
Contents
Preface..............................................xiii
PART I. THE MANIFESTO
Chapter 1. Introduction (M.B. Beck)..............................3
1.1 An Old Familiar Problem...............................3
1.2 Embarking on a Change of Perspective........................7
References..........................................9
Chapter 2. We Have A Problem (M.B. Beck).........................11
2.1 Limits to the Science Base..............................11
2.2 Ripples Across the Community of Environmental Scientists...........16
2.3 Lake Erie and Eutrophication: Youthful Exuberance of Systems Ecology • • ¦ • 17
2.4 Surface Water Acidification: Insufficiency of a Physics-based Programme • • • ¦ 20
2.5 Tropospheric Ozone Control: Dynamics of Science and Policy out of Phase ¦ • • 24
2.6 A Global Picture: Stabilising Greenhouse Gas Concentrations (and
Stabilising Our Forecasts)..............................26
2.7 Science Base Changing Under Our Feet......................28
References..........................................30
Chapter 3. Beginnings of a Change of Perspective (M.B. Beck)...............35
3.1 State Variables Masquerading as Parameters....................35
3.2 Reconciling Theory with Observation........................41
3.3 Erasing the Divide Between Past and Future....................45
3.4 A Knot of Constraints, Opportunities and Contradictions.............47
References..........................................48
Chapter 4. Structural Change: A Definition (M.B. Beck)..................51
4.1 A Metaphor and Some Accompanying Conceptual Apparatus..........51
4.2 An Example......................................57
4.3 The Nub of the Problem...............................58
References..........................................60
vi Contents
Chapter 5. The Manifesto (M.B. Beck)............................61
5.1 The Challenge.....................................61
5.2 Belief Networks: Generating the Feared Dislocations...............62
5.3 High-Order Models: Random Search and the Reachability of Target Futures • • 65
5.4 Evolving Clusters of Candidate Parameterisations.................70
5.5 Simplicity out of Complexity.............................72
5.6 Parameterising Parametric Change.........................75
5.7 Elasto-Plastic Deformation of the Structure....................77
5.8 Detecting and Forecasting Growth in the Seeds of Structural Change......81
5.9 Probing the Shores of Ignorance...........................85
5.10 Visualisation and Learning..............................89
5.11 Foresight for Action..................................90
References..........................................91
Chapter 6. Epilogue (M.B. Beck)................................95
6.1 An Evolutionary Approach in Form.........................95
6.2 Parametric Change as the Agent of Control.....................97
6.3 Inclined to Survive (or Otherwise)..........................99
References.........................................102
PART II. CASE HISTORIES
Chapter 7. Lake Erie and Evolving Issues of the Quality of its Water (W.M. Schertzer
and D.C.L. Lam)...................................... 105
7.1 Introduction..................................... 105
7.2 Eutrophication.................................... 106
7.2.1 Emerging Perception of a Problem..................... 106
7.2.2 Delayed Response: A Public Call to Arms................. 107
7.2.3 Understanding the System: the {Known} versus Our {Ignorance} • • ¦ • 107
7.2.4 Synthesis: A Low-Order Model (LOM)................... 109
7.2.5 Formulating Policy: Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement
(GLWQA)................................... 110
7.2.6 And the Auditing of Policy.......................... Ill
7.2.7 Backtothe Bench.............................. Ill
7.2.8 Towards Higher-Order Models (HOMs).................. 112
7.2.9 The Keys to Insight and Understanding.................. 114
7.3 Unforeseen Stresses of the Late 1980s and 1990s................ 120
7.3.1 Looking Beyond the Horizon: Climate Change.............. 120
7.3.2 Exotic Species................................. 123
7.4 Lessons Learned................................... 123
Acknowledgements.................................... 126
References......................................... 126
Contents vii
Chapter 8. Impacts of Acidic Atmospheric Deposition on the Chemical Composition of
Stream Water and Soil Water (G.M. Hornberger)................... 131
8.1 Introduction..................................... 131
8.2 Background...................................... 132
8.2.1 Direct Use of Data.............................. 133
8.2.2 Conceptual Nature of Acidification Models................ 133
8.3 The Case of Magic: A Tool for Long-Term Forecasting............. 134
8.3.1 Application to Regional Assessments.................... 136
8.3.2 Uncertainty in Model Structure....................... 140
8.4 Status and Future Directions............................ 141
References......................................... 143
Chapter 9. The Ozone Problem (R.L. Dennis)........................ 147
9.1 Background and Context.............................. 147
9.1.1 The Essential Problem............................ 147
9.1.2 The Challenge for Management....................... 148
9.1.3 The Nature of Management Cycles..................... 149
9.2 Evolution of Models of Air Quality......................... 149
9.2.1 Representation of Chemistry........................ 150
9.2.2 Representation of Transformation Coupled with Transport....... 151
9.3 The Forecasting Problem: The Importance of Isoprene Emissions....... 152
9.4 Forecasting Impacts in Perspective......................... 153
9.4.1 Retrospective Results for Spatially Uniform, Widespread
Reductions.................................. 154
9.4.2 Retrospective Results for Urban-focused NOX Reductions........ 156
9.4.3 In Summary.................................. 158
9.5 Difficulty Discerning the Truth........................... 160
9.6 The Jerky Exchange Between Policy and Science................. 161
9.7 Lessons to be Learned................................ 162
References......................................... 164
PART III. THE APPROACH
Chapter 10. Belief Networks: Generating the Feared Dislocations (O. Vans)......169
10.1 On Certainties and Uncertainties..........................169
10.2 Are We Overconfident in Our Conventional Numerical Models ?........171
10.3 Impacts of Climate Change on Finnish Watersheds................174
10.3.1 Methodology: Belief Networks.......................177
10.3.2 Interviews: Collection of the Data......................181
10.3.3 Sample Results: Scientists are in Private Much More Uncertain
than Their Scientific Papers Would Suggest................182
10.4 Back to the Global Scale...............................186
10.4.1 Interdisciplinary Analysis on a Global Scale: A Melange of Vicious
Circles.....................................189
viii Contents
10.5 Epilogue and Extensions..............................195
References.........................................196
Appendix: Computational Solution of Belief Networks.................199
Chapter 11. Random Search and the Reachability of Target Futures (M.B. Beck,
J. Chen and O.O. Osidele)................................207
11.1 Introduction.....................................207
11.2 Reachable Futures..................................208
11.3 A Regionalised Sensitivity Analysis.........................211
11.3.1 Origins of the Method............................211
11.3.2 Essence of the Analysis............................212
11.3.3 Target Futures: Beliefs, Imagination, and Experience as Substitutes
for Quantitative Observation........................215
11.4 A Case Study: Aquatic Foodweb in a Piedmont Impoundment.........217
11.4.1 Structure of the Model............................217
11.4.2 Matching the Past and Reaching Future Behaviour............219
11.4.3 Taking Stock.................................222
11.5 Conclusions......................................224
References.........................................225
Chapter 12. Uncertainty and the Detection of Structural Change in Models of
Environmental Systems (KJ. Seven)..........................227
12.1 Uncertainty and Change in Modelling Environmental Systems.........227
12.2 An Example.....................................228
12.3 Equifinality and Uncertainty in Environmental Models.............230
12.4 Equifinality and Change in Environmental Systems................232
12.5 The GLUE Methodology: Rationale........................233
12.5.1 Requirements of GLUE...........................235
12.5.2 Results of Using Different Likelihood Measures.............236
12.5.3 Calculation of Likelihood Distributions and Uncertainty Bounds • ¦ - • 237
12.5.4 Updating of Uncertainty Bounds......................238
12.5.5 On the Sensitivity to Individual Parameters................239
12.6 Uncertainty and Predicting the Effects of Change.................239
12.7 Conclusions......................................245
Acknowledgements....................................246
References.........................................247
Chapter 13. Simplicity Out of Complexity (P.C. Young and S.Parkinson)........251
13.1 Introduction.....................................251
13.2 A General Data-based Mechanistic (DBM) Approach to Modelling
Complex Environmental Systems..........................254
13.3 Methodological Basis of the DBM Approach...................258
13.3.1 The Stochastic Simulation Model and Regionalised Sensitivity
Analysis (RSA)................................258
Contents ix
13.3.2 Linearisation and Order Reduction of the Non-linear
Simulation Models..............................261
13.3.3 DBM Modelling from Real Data......................264
13.4 Case Study: The Enting-Lassey Global Carbon Cycle Model..........265
13.4.1 Initial Stochastic Model Formulation and Simulation...........266
13.4.2 Regionalised Sensitivity Analysis (RSA)..................269
13.4.3 Stochastic Model Optimisation.......................270
13.4.4 Uncertainty in Model Predicted Future Levels of Atmospheric
Carbon Dioxide................................272
13.4.5 Dominant Mode Analysis (DMA): Model Linearisation and
Order Reduction...............................274
13.4.6 Simple Mechanistic Interpretation of the Reduced-Order Model
Results.....................................280
13.4.7 Another Example of Model Reduction...................281
13.4.8 Comments...................................281
13.4.9 Modelling From Real Data.........................282
13.5 Conclusions......................................288
Acknowledgement.....................................290
References.........................................290
Appendix 1:SRIV Identification and Estimation....................295
Appendix 2: The Enting-Lassey Global Carbon Cycle Model..............299
Chapter 14. Structural Effects of Landscape and Land Use on Streamflow Response
(T.S. Kokkonen and AJ. Jakeman)............................303
14.1 Introduction.....................................303
14.2 The Model and Some Preliminaries........................305
14.2.1 Model.....................................306
14.2.2 Assessment Criteria.............................308
14.2.3 Removing Climate Dependency.......................308
14.3 Case Study 1: Coweeta, USA............................311
14.4 Case Study 2: Yass River..............................317
14.5 Conclusions......................................320
References.........................................320
Chapter 15. Elasto-plastic Deformation of Structure (M.B. Beck, J.D. Stigter and
D. Lloyd Smith)......................................323
15.1 Introduction.....................................323
15.1.1 Apparent Structural Change: A Lesser Form of Evolution........324
15.2 A Motivating Example................................325
15.2.1 Problem Definition..............................327
15.3 A Metaphor......................................329
15.3.1 The Conceptual Framework of Recursive Prediction...........330
15.3.2 Tracing Structural Error in the {Presumed Known} and the
{Acknowledged Unknown}.........................332
x Contents
15.4 Design for Plastic Deformation...........................335
15.4.1 State Estimation and Model Structure Identification...........335
15.4.2 A Recursive Prediction Error Algorithm..................338
15.4.3 Some Material Properties of the Gain Matrix...............340
15.5 Case Studies.....................................340
15.5.1 Structural Error in the {Presumed Known}................341
15.5.2 Structural Error in the {Acknowledged Unknown}............342
15.6 Reorienting the Goal Function...........................344
15.6.1 Bringing Out the Inner Parametric Space of the Model Structure • • • - 346
15.7 Conclusions......................................347
References.........................................349
Chapter 16. Detecting and Forecasting Growth in the Seeds of Change (J. Chen and
M.B.Beck).........................................351
16.1 Introduction.....................................351
16.2 An Important Variation on the Basic Theme of Structural Change.......352
16.2.1 Types of Structural Change.........................353
16.2.2 Detecting the Seeds of Change.......................355
16.3 Case Study......................................357
16.3.1 Single-state Model of BOD Dynamics...................359
16.3.2 Two-state Model of BOD-DO Dynamics..................362
16.3.3 Propagation of the Seeds of Structural Change..............369
16.4 Conclusions......................................372
References.........................................373
Chapter 17. Probing the Shores of Ignorance (R.L. Dennis, J.R. Arnold and
G.S. Tonnesen).......................................375
17.1 Introduction.....................................375
17.1.1 HOMs, Explanation, and Prediction....................376
17.2 Probing Our Ignorance of the Unpacked Parts of the HOM...........378
17.2.1 A High-level Conceptual Description....................378
17.2.2 Instrumenting the HOM...........................379
17.2.3 Developing New Diagnostic Measures Using the Conceptual
Mental Model and the Instrumented HOM................380
17.3 Case Study of Tropospheric Photochemistry....................380
17.3.1 Understanding Tropospheric Photochemistry...............381
17.3.2 Model Representations...........................385
17.3.3 Taxonomy of Diagnostic Measures.....................386
17.4 Instrumenting the Model..............................388
17.4.1 Background..................................388
17.4.2 Illustrations from RADM..........................390
17.5 Connecting Model Probes to Ambient Field Observations............396
17.5.1 Associating Field Observations with Diagnostic Model
Measures...................................396
17.5.2 What Observations Can We Make at Present?...............399
Contents
17.6 Design for Discovery: Probing a Regional Photochemical Model........403
17.6.1 Indicators of Structural Change: O, versus NOZ under
NOx-limited Conditions...........................403
17.6.2 The Radical Maintenance Pool: Measures of OH Propagation......406
17.6.3 Process-oriented Testing of Component Mechanisms: A Newly
Proposed OH+NO, Reaction-Rate Constant...............406
17.7 Conclusions......................................408
References.........................................409
PART IV. EPILOGUE
Chapter 18. Parametric Change as the Agent of Control (K J. Keesman).........415
18.1 Introduction.....................................415
18.2 Feedback.......................................416
18.2.1 Large Time Constants and Low Sampling/control Frequencies......419
18.3 Model-based Predictive Control..........................420
18.4 Conclusions: But the Very Beginnings of an Approach..............422
References.........................................423
Chapter 19. Identifying the Inclination of a System Towards a Terminal State
from Current Observations (A.V. Kryazhimskii and M.B. Beck)...........425
19.1 Introduction.....................................425
19.2 Binary Models and Problem Definition......................427
19.2.1 Hypotheses..................................427
19.2.2 Designing a Binary Model..........................428
19.2.3 An Elementary Illustration..........................429
19.2.4 Problem Definition..............................431
19.3 Identification of Inclination from Current Observations.............432
19.3.1 Step 0: Construction of the Binary Model.................432
19.3.2 Step 1: Model-based Analysis (No Observations).............432
19.3.3 Step 2: Model and Data-based Analysis...................436
19.3.4 Step 3: Comparing the Results From Steps 1 and 2............437
19.3.5 Step 4: Separating the Space of Models...................437
19.3.6 Step 5: Posterior Assumptions........................438
19.3.7 Step 6: Dominance Analysis.........................439
19.4 Case Study: Rodent Population in the Vicinity of Chernobyl, Ukraine.....444
19.5 The Method: In Retrospect and Prospect.....................448
19.6 Conclusions......................................449
Acknowledgement.....................................450
References.........................................450
Contributing Authors - Biosketches.............................453
Subject Index..........................................461
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author_GND | (DE-588)128735163 |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV014515002 |
| callnumber-first | G - Geography, Anthropology, Recreation |
| callnumber-label | GE45 |
| callnumber-raw | GE45.M37 |
| callnumber-search | GE45.M37 |
| callnumber-sort | GE 245 M37 |
| callnumber-subject | GE - Environmental Sciences |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)48383588 (DE-599)BVBBV014515002 |
| dewey-full | 363.7/001/5118 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 363 - Other social problems and services |
| dewey-raw | 363.7/001/5118 |
| dewey-search | 363.7/001/5118 |
| dewey-sort | 3363.7 11 45118 |
| dewey-tens | 360 - Social problems and services; associations |
| discipline | Soziologie |
| edition | 1. ed. |
| format | Book |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>01923nam a2200481zcb4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV014515002</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20040205 </controlfield><controlfield tag="007">t</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">020603s2002 ne d||| |||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">008044086X</subfield><subfield code="9">0-08-044086-X</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)48383588</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV014515002</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">aacr</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="044" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ne</subfield><subfield code="c">NL</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-12</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-634</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="050" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">GE45.M37</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">363.7/001/5118</subfield><subfield code="2">21</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Environmental foresight and models</subfield><subfield code="b">a manifesto</subfield><subfield code="c">ed. by M. B. Beck</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="250" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1. ed.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Amsterdam</subfield><subfield code="b">Elsevier</subfield><subfield code="c">2002</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">xvi, 473 S.</subfield><subfield code="b">graph. Darst.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Developments in environmental modelling</subfield><subfield code="v">22</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="500" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Includes bibliographical references and index</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Sciences de l'environnement - Modèles mathématiques</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Mathematisches Modell</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Environmental sciences</subfield><subfield code="x">Mathematical models</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Zukunft</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4068097-6</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Mathematisches Modell</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4114528-8</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Umweltveränderung</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4304982-5</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="655" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4143413-4</subfield><subfield code="a">Aufsatzsammlung</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd-content</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Umweltveränderung</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4304982-5</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Zukunft</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4068097-6</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="2"><subfield code="a">Mathematisches Modell</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4114528-8</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="5">DE-604</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Beck, Michael B.</subfield><subfield code="d">1948-</subfield><subfield code="e">Sonstige</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)128735163</subfield><subfield code="4">oth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="830" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Developments in environmental modelling</subfield><subfield code="v">22</subfield><subfield code="w">(DE-604)BV000006614</subfield><subfield code="9">22</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="2"><subfield code="m">HBZ Datenaustausch</subfield><subfield code="q">application/pdf</subfield><subfield code="u">http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009886242&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA</subfield><subfield code="3">Inhaltsverzeichnis</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="999" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-009886242</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| genre | (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Aufsatzsammlung |
| id | DE-604.BV014515002 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T19:03:12Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 008044086X |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-009886242 |
| oclc_num | 48383588 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-634 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-634 |
| physical | xvi, 473 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2002 |
| publishDateSearch | 2002 |
| publishDateSort | 2002 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Developments in environmental modelling |
| series2 | Developments in environmental modelling |
| spelling | Environmental foresight and models a manifesto ed. by M. B. Beck 1. ed. Amsterdam Elsevier 2002 xvi, 473 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Developments in environmental modelling 22 Includes bibliographical references and index Sciences de l'environnement - Modèles mathématiques Mathematisches Modell Environmental sciences Mathematical models Zukunft (DE-588)4068097-6 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Umweltveränderung (DE-588)4304982-5 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Umweltveränderung (DE-588)4304982-5 s Zukunft (DE-588)4068097-6 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s DE-604 Beck, Michael B. 1948- Sonstige (DE-588)128735163 oth Developments in environmental modelling 22 (DE-604)BV000006614 22 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009886242&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Environmental foresight and models a manifesto Developments in environmental modelling Sciences de l'environnement - Modèles mathématiques Mathematisches Modell Environmental sciences Mathematical models Zukunft (DE-588)4068097-6 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Umweltveränderung (DE-588)4304982-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4068097-6 (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4304982-5 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Environmental foresight and models a manifesto |
| title_auth | Environmental foresight and models a manifesto |
| title_exact_search | Environmental foresight and models a manifesto |
| title_full | Environmental foresight and models a manifesto ed. by M. B. Beck |
| title_fullStr | Environmental foresight and models a manifesto ed. by M. B. Beck |
| title_full_unstemmed | Environmental foresight and models a manifesto ed. by M. B. Beck |
| title_short | Environmental foresight and models |
| title_sort | environmental foresight and models a manifesto |
| title_sub | a manifesto |
| topic | Sciences de l'environnement - Modèles mathématiques Mathematisches Modell Environmental sciences Mathematical models Zukunft (DE-588)4068097-6 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Umweltveränderung (DE-588)4304982-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Sciences de l'environnement - Modèles mathématiques Mathematisches Modell Environmental sciences Mathematical models Zukunft Umweltveränderung Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009886242&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV000006614 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT beckmichaelb environmentalforesightandmodelsamanifesto |