Challenges of a changing earth: proceedings of the Global Change Open Science Conference, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 10 - 13 July 2001 ; with 7 tables
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Tagungsbericht Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Berlin [u.a.]
Springer
2002
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Global change - the IGBP series
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVI, 216 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 3540433082 |
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| 264 | 1 | |a Berlin [u.a.] |b Springer |c 2002 | |
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| adam_text | Contents
Part I Opening .......................................................................... 1
1 Opening Address........................................................................ 3
2 Challenges of a Changing Earth ..................................................... 7
References................................................................................17
Part II Achievements and Challenges ...........................................19
Part lla Food, Land, Water, and Oceans............................................20
3 Toward Integrated Land-Change Science: Advances in 1.5 Decades of
Sustained International Research on Land-Use and Land-Cover Change.....21
3.1 Trends.....................................................................................21
3.2 Causes.....................................................................................23
3.3 Model-Methods .........................................................................24
3.4 Summary and Observations ..........................................................25
References................................................................................25
4 Climate Variability and Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics:
Implications for Sustainability ......................................................27
4.1 Introduction .............................................................................27
4.2 Climate Effects on Marine Ecosystems .............................................28
4.3 Implications for Sustainability .......................................................29
References................................................................................29
5 Food in the 21st Century: Global Climate of Disparities .......................31
5.1 Food in the 21st Century: Global Climate of Disparities .........................31
5.2 The Critical Role of Knowledge ......................................................31
5.3 Environment and Sustainable Development.......................................32
5.4 Global Environmental Change .......................................................32
5.5 Global Agro-Ecological Assessment.................................................33
5.6 Global AEZ Findings ...................................................................34
5.7 Global Warming and Climate Change...............................................34
5.8 Impact of Climate Change on Worldwide Cereal Production ..................35
5.9 Food Security and Climate Change..................................................37
5.10 Climate Change Impact: Fairness and Equity? ....................................38
5.11 Concluding Remark ....................................................................38
References................................................................................38
6 Equity Dimensions of Dam-Based Water Resources Development:
Winners and Losers....................................................................39
6.1 Introduction .............................................................................39
6.2 Why is Equity Relevant in River Basin Development Contexts?
An Illustration from the Senegal River .............................................39
VIII Contents
6.3 Role of Dams in Water Resources Allocation ......................................40
6.4 Addressing Equity Dimensions of Dam-Based Water Resources
Development.............................................................................41
6.4.1 The Concept of Equity.........................................................41
6.4.2 Ideas for Improving the Equity Performance of Dam Projects.........41
6.5 Conclusions ..............................................................................42
References................................................................................43
Part Mb Out of Breath: Air Quality in the 21st Century.........................44
7 Atmospheric Chemistry in the Anthropocene .................................45
8 Fires, Haze and Acid Rain:
The Social and Political Framework of Air Pollution in ASEAN and Asia .... 49
8.0 Introduction: Air Pollution and Asia in Context ..................................49
8.1 Part 1: The Problem in Perspective...................................................49
8.1.1 The Haze: Summary of a Recurring Disaster..............................49
8.1.2 Northeast Asian Acid Rain: The Smog of Growth ........................50
8.2 Part 2: International Principles and Practice .......................................51
8.2.1 International Law and Practice in Other Regions ........................51
8.2.2 The ASEAN Way and Environmental Cooperation .......................51
8.2.3 Cooperation in Northeast Asia ...............................................52
8.3 Part 3: Assessing and Improving Regional Cooperation on the Environment ... 52
8.3.1 Assessment and Prospects for Improvement ..............................52
8.3.2 How to Improve ASEAN? ......................................................53
8.3.3 Northeast Asian Cooperation.................................................53
8.4 Conclusion: Strengthening the Social and Political Frameworks ..............54
General References .....................................................................55
Specific References .....................................................................55
Part lie Managing Planetary Metabolism? The Global Carbon Cycle.......56
9 Carbon and the Science-Policy Nexus:The Kyoto Challenge.................57
9.1 The Global Carbon Cycle ..............................................................58
9.2 Human Perturbation of the Carbon Cycle .........................................58
9.3 The Terrestrial Sink ....................................................................59
9.4 Location of the Terrestrial Sink ......................................................59
9.5 Variability of the Terrestrial Sink....................................................60
9.6 Origin of the Terrestrial Sink.........................................................60
9.7 The Future of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle ........................................60
References................................................................................64
10 Industry Response to the CO2 Challenge .........................................65
10.1 Introduction .............................................................................65
10.2 The Energy Context ....................................................................65
10.3 The Industry Response ................................................................66
10.3.1 Reducing GHG Emissions .....................................................66
10.3.2 Future Innovations .............................................................67
10.3.3 Renewable Energy ..............................................................68
10.3.4 Transport Fuels .................................................................69
10.4 Relations between Business and the Scientific Community.....................69
10.5 Summary of the Key Points ...........................................................71
Part lid Summary: Global Change and the Challenge for the Future ......72
11 Global Change and the Challenge for the Future...............................73
Contents IX
Part III Advances in Understanding..............................................75
Part Ilia Global Biogeochemistry:
Understanding the Metabolic System of the Planet ...........................76
12 Ocean Biogeochemistry: A Sea of Change .......................................77
12.1 Introduction .............................................................................77
12.2 The Oceanic Carbon Cycle ............................................................77
12.3 Ocean Time-Series Programmes.....................................................78
12.4 Summary .................................................................................80
References................................................................................80
13 The Past, Present and Future of Carbon on Land ...............................81
13.1 What Controls the Behaviour of Biospheric Carbon? ............................81
13.2 The Carbon Cycle is Constrained by Other Elemental Cycles ..................82
13.3 The Nitrogen-Carbon Link............................................................82
13.4 Do Land Ecosystems Retain Nitrogen Deposited From the Air? ...............83
13.5 The Phosphorus-Nitrogen Link......................................................83
13.6 The Carbon Cycle During the Past 420 Thousand Years.........................83
References................................................................................85
14 Can New Institutions Solve Atmospheric Problems?
Confronting Acid Rain, Ozone Depletion and Climate Change..............87
14.1 Does the Regime Have Appropriate Behavioural Mechanisms? ................88
14.2 Has the Regime Given Rise to a Robust Social Practice? ........................89
14.3 Does the Regime Have a Sensitive Steering System? .............................90
14.4 Implications for the Climate Regime................................................91
References................................................................................91
Part 1Mb Land-Ocean Interactions: Regional-Global Linkages ...............92
15 Emissions from the Oceans to the Atmosphere, Deposition from
the Atmosphere to the Oceans and the Interactions Between Them ......93
15.1 Atmospheric Inputs to the Oceans ..................................................93
15.1.1 Nitrogen ..........................................................................93
15.1.2 Iron................................................................................94
15.2 Emissions from the Ocean to the Atmosphere ....................................94
15.3 Interacting Cycles - the Challenge for the Future ................................95
References................................................................................96
Bibliography .............................................................................96
16 The Impact of Dams on Fisheries: Case of the Three Gorges Dam ..........97
16.1 The Effect of Dams on Deltas and Estuaries .......................................97
16.2 The Case of the Three Gorges Dam .................................................98
16.3 Threat to Other Shelves................................................................98
References................................................................................99
17 Global Change in the Coastal Zone: The Case of Southeast Asia .......... 101
17.1 Where is the Coastal Zone and Why Southeast Asia? .......................... 101
17.2 Pressures on the Coastal Zone:
Population and a Resource-Dependent Economy............................... 101
References.............................................................................. 104
Part Illc The Climate System: Prediction, Change and Variability......... 106
18 Climate Change Fore and Aft: Where on Earth Are We Going?............. 107
X Contents
19 Climate Change - Past, Present and Future: A Personal Perspective ..... 109
19.1 Lessons from the Past ................................................................ 110
19.2 Global Temperature Change ........................................................ 110
19.3 The Future in Perspective of the Past ............................................. Ill
References.............................................................................. 112
20 The Changing Cryosphere:
Impacts of Global Warming in the High Latitudes............................ 113
20.1 What Is the Cryosphere and How Does It Contribute to
Global Climate Change? ............................................................. 113
20.2 What Is the Empirical Evidence of Climate Change in the High Latitudes? .... 113
20.3 Impacts of Global Warming in the High Latitudes ............................. 114
21 The Coupled Climate System: Variability and Predictability................ 117
21.1 Introduction ........................................................................... 117
21.2 Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variability ..................................... 117
21.3 Decadal Climate Variability......................................................... 118
21.4 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change................................... 120
Part Mid Hot Spots of Land-Use Change and the Climate System:
A Regional or Global Concern ..................................................... 122
22 Hot Spots of Land-Use Change and the Climate System:
A Regional or Global Concern?.................................................... 123
References.............................................................................. 124
23 Africa: Greening of the Sahara .................................................... 125
23.1 Africa: A Hot Spot of Nonlinear Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction....... 125
23.2 The African Wet Period.............................................................. 126
23.3 Abrupt Changes in North Africa ................................................... 126
23.4 Will North Africa Become Green Again in the Near Future?.................. 127
23.5 Outlook ................................................................................. 128
Acknowledgements................................................................... 128
References.............................................................................. 128
24 The Role of Large-Scale Vegetation and Land Use
in the Water Cycle and Climate in Monsoon Asia ............................. 129
24.1 The Asian Monsoon As a Huge Water Cycling System ......................... 129
24.2 Atmospheric Water Cycle over Monsoon Asia
and the Eurasian Continent......................................................... 129
24.3 Is Monsoon Rainfall Decreasing?
The Impact of Deforestation on the Water Cycle in Thailand ................ 129
24.4 Do Water-Fed Rice Paddy Fields Increase Rainfall in Monsoon Asia? ...... 130
24.5 A Hydro-Climate Memory Effect
of the Taiga-Permafrost System in Siberia ....................................... 131
References.............................................................................. 132
25 Can Human-Induced Land-Cover Change Modify
the Monsoon System? .............................................................. 133
25.1 History of Land-Cover and Land-Use Changes over East Asia ............... 133
25.2 Design of the Numerical Experiments............................................ 133
25.3 Changes of Surface Dynamic Parameters
under Two Types of Vegetation Cover ............................................ 135
25.4 Changes of East Asian Monsoon by Human-Induced Land-Cover Changes ... 135
25.5 Conclusions ............................................................................ 136
References.............................................................................. 136
Contents XI
26 The Amazon Basin and Land-Cover Change: A Future in the Balance? .... 137
26.1 Land-Use Change ..................................................................... 137
26.2 Impacts on the Carbon Cycle ....................................................... 138
26.3 Impacts on the Atmosphere......................................................... 139
26.4 Impacts on Water Chemistry ....................................................... 140
26.5 The Future ............................................................................. 140
Acknowledgements................................................................... 140
References.............................................................................. 140
Part IV Looking to the Future ................................................... 143
Part IVa Simulating and Observing the Earth System....................... 144
27 Virtual Realities of the Past, Present and Future .............................. 145
27.1 What Are General Circulation Models (GCMs)? ................................ 145
27.2 How Do We Use Climate Models? .................................................. 145
27.3 How Well Do Models Simulate Present Climate? ................................ 146
27.4 How Well Do Models Predict Past Climate Change?............................ 146
27.5 What Are the Predictions for the Future? ........................................ 147
27.6 What Developments Are Likely in the Future?................................... 148
27.7 How Can We Deal with Uncertainty in Predictions? ........................... 148
27.8 Concluding Remarks................................................................. 149
References.............................................................................. 149
28 Coping with Earth System Complexity and Irregularity..................... 151
28.1 The Challenge ......................................................................... 151
28.2 Great Cognitive Barriers............................................................. 151
28.3 Breaches and Bypasses to Understanding........................................ 152
28.4 Adaptive Planetary Stewardship ................................................... 156
References.............................................................................. 156
29 Simulating and Observing the Earth System: Summary .................... 157
29.1 Earth System........................................................................... 157
29.2 Simulators.............................................................................. 158
29.3 Observations........................................................................... 158
29.4 The Way Forward ..................................................................... 158
Part IVb Does the Earth System Need Biodiversity? ......................... 160
30 Marine Biodiversity: Why We Need It in Earth System Science............. 161
Reference ............................................................................... 163
31 Does Biodiversity Matter to Terrestrial Ecosystem Processes and Services? . 165
31.1 Is Biodiversity Important to the Functioning of the Earth System? ......... 165
31.2 What is Biodiversity?................................................................. 165
31.3 The Most Abundant Plants Are Important for Ecosystem Functioning __ 165
31.4 The Number of Functionally Similar Species Is Important
in Facing Environmental Change .................................................. 166
31.5 Implications for Conservation and Sustainable Management................ 166
32 Biodiversity Loss and the Maintenance of Our Life-Support System..... 169
32.1 How Does Biodiversity Affect Ecosystem Functioning at Small Scales? __ 169
32.2 Scaling Up in Time: Biodiversity As Insurance Against Environmental Changes 171
32.3 Scaling Up in Space: Biodiversity Effects at Landscape and Regional Scales ... 172
32.4 Conclusions ............................................................................ 172
References.............................................................................. 172
XII Contents
Part IVc Can Technology Spare the Planet?.................................... 174
33 Maglevs and the Vision of St. Hubert -
Or the Great Restoration of Nature: Why and How ........................... 175
33.1 Introduction ........................................................................... 175
33.2 The Vision of St. Hubert ............................................................. 175
33.3 Our Triune Brain...................................................................... 175
33.4 Sparing Sea Life ....................................................................... 177
33.5 Sparing Farmland..................................................................... 177
33.6 Sparing Forests ........................................................................ 179
33.7 Sparing Pavement..................................................................... 180
33.8 Cardinal Resolutions ................................................................. 181
References.............................................................................. 182
34 Industrial Transformation:
Exploring System Change in Production and Consumption ............... 183
34.1 Human Choice on Issues Involving a Time Scale of Decades to Centuries . 183
34.2 Transformation: Why, How Does It Work and What Are the Options ....... 184
34.3 From Green Products to System Transformation ............................... 185
34.4 Five Major Foci for Transformation Research ................................... 186
34.5 International Cooperation .......................................................... 186
34.6 In Summary............................................................................ 187
References.............................................................................. 188
35 Will Technology Spare the Planet? ............................................... 189
References.............................................................................. 191
Part IVd Towards Global Sustainability......................................... 192
36 Challenges and Road Blocks for Local and Global Sustainability ......... 193
36.1 Advances ............................................................................... 193
36.2 International Instruments: Urgency of Goals and Synergies ................. 193
36.3 The Biodiversity Convention ....................................................... 193
36.4 The Climate Change Convention .................................................. 194
36.5 Synergies ............................................................................... 195
36.6 New Inputs ............................................................................. 195
37 Research Systems for a Transition Toward Sustainability ................... 197
Acknowledgements................................................................... 199
References.............................................................................. 199
38 Summary: Towards Global Sustainability....................................... 201
Part IVe Closing Session............................................................ 202
39 Closing Address ...................................................................... 203
39.1 Science and Policy .................................................................... 203
39.2 Prospects for the Climate Change Negotiations................................. 205
40 The Amsterdam Declaration on Global Change............................... 207
Index .................................................................................... 209
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| series2 | Global change - the IGBP series |
| spelling | Challenges of a changing earth proceedings of the Global Change Open Science Conference, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 10 - 13 July 2001 ; with 7 tables Will Steffen ... (ed.) Berlin [u.a.] Springer 2002 XVI, 216 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Global change - the IGBP series Umweltveränderung - Anthropogener Einfluss - Kongress - Amsterdam <2001> Umweltveränderung (DE-588)4304982-5 gnd rswk-swf Anthropogener Einfluss (DE-588)4327906-5 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift 2001 Amsterdam gnd-content Umweltveränderung (DE-588)4304982-5 s Anthropogener Einfluss (DE-588)4327906-5 s DE-604 Steffen, William L. 1947-2023 Sonstige (DE-588)140928820 oth Global Change Open Science Conference 2001 Amsterdam Sonstige (DE-588)10036121-3 oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009843130&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Challenges of a changing earth proceedings of the Global Change Open Science Conference, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 10 - 13 July 2001 ; with 7 tables Umweltveränderung - Anthropogener Einfluss - Kongress - Amsterdam <2001> Umweltveränderung (DE-588)4304982-5 gnd Anthropogener Einfluss (DE-588)4327906-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4304982-5 (DE-588)4327906-5 (DE-588)1071861417 |
| title | Challenges of a changing earth proceedings of the Global Change Open Science Conference, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 10 - 13 July 2001 ; with 7 tables |
| title_auth | Challenges of a changing earth proceedings of the Global Change Open Science Conference, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 10 - 13 July 2001 ; with 7 tables |
| title_exact_search | Challenges of a changing earth proceedings of the Global Change Open Science Conference, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 10 - 13 July 2001 ; with 7 tables |
| title_full | Challenges of a changing earth proceedings of the Global Change Open Science Conference, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 10 - 13 July 2001 ; with 7 tables Will Steffen ... (ed.) |
| title_fullStr | Challenges of a changing earth proceedings of the Global Change Open Science Conference, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 10 - 13 July 2001 ; with 7 tables Will Steffen ... (ed.) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Challenges of a changing earth proceedings of the Global Change Open Science Conference, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 10 - 13 July 2001 ; with 7 tables Will Steffen ... (ed.) |
| title_short | Challenges of a changing earth |
| title_sort | challenges of a changing earth proceedings of the global change open science conference amsterdam the netherlands 10 13 july 2001 with 7 tables |
| title_sub | proceedings of the Global Change Open Science Conference, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 10 - 13 July 2001 ; with 7 tables |
| topic | Umweltveränderung - Anthropogener Einfluss - Kongress - Amsterdam <2001> Umweltveränderung (DE-588)4304982-5 gnd Anthropogener Einfluss (DE-588)4327906-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Umweltveränderung - Anthropogener Einfluss - Kongress - Amsterdam <2001> Umweltveränderung Anthropogener Einfluss Konferenzschrift 2001 Amsterdam |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009843130&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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