Contribution to the risk analysis of hydrologic droughts based on hydrologic time series of the river Nile:
Gespeichert in:
1. Verfasser: | |
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Format: | Abschlussarbeit Buch |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
Berlin
FB Geowiss., FU
1994
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Schriftenreihe: | Berliner geowissenschaftliche Abhandlungen
Reihe D, Geoinformatik ; 7 |
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
Beschreibung: | 125 S. graph. Darst. |
ISBN: | 3927541885 |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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adam_text | Titel: Contribution to the risk analysis of hydrologic droughts based on hydrologic time series of the rive
Autor: Reusing, Gerold
Jahr: 1994
Berliner geowiss. Abh., D, 7, 125 pp., Berlin 1994 3
Gerold Reusing
Contribution to the Risk Analysis of Hydrologie Droughts
Based on Hydrologie Time Series of the River Nile
Contents:
Preface and Acknowledgements...............................................................................................................5
Vorwort und Danksagung........................................................................................................................6
1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................7
1.1 Methodology and Objectives.................................................................................................7
1.2 Previous Research Work.......................................................................................................8
1.3 Topography and Hydrology of the Nile Basin - Brief Summary............................................ 10
1.3.1 Catchment of Lake Victoria.................................................................................10
1.3.2 The Basin of the Victoria Nile.............................................................................12
1.3 .3 The Basin of Lakes George and Edward and River Semliki.................................. 13
1.3.4 Lake Albert Catchment....................................................................................... 13
1.3.5 The Bahr El Jebel Basin...................................................................................... 15
1.3.5.1 The Bahr El Jebel from the Exit of Lake Albert to Mongalla................. 15
1.3.5.2 The Bahr El Jebel from Mongalla to Lake No....................................... 15
1.3.6 The Bahr El Ghazal Basin................................................................................... 17
1.3.7 The White Nile Basin.......................................................................................... 17
1.3.7.1 The White Nile from Lake No to the Mouth of the Sobat....................... 18
1.3.7.2 The River Sobat and its Tributaries...................................................... 18
1.3.7.3 The White Nile from the Mouth of the Sobat to the Junction with
the Blue Nile at Khartoum....................................................................21
1.3.8 The Blue Nile Basin............................................................................................22
1.3.8.1 Lake Tana............................................................................................23
1.3.8.2 The Blue Nile from Lake Tana to Roseires...........................................23
1.3.8.3 The Blue Nile from Roseires to Sennar.................................................23
1.3.8.4 The Blue Nile from Sennar to Khartoum...............................................23
1.3.9 The Main Nile below Khartoum to the Junction of the Atbara..............................24
1.3, lOThe Atbara River................................................................................................24
1.3.11 The Main Nile below the Mouth of the Atbara.....................................................28
1.4 Gauging of the Nile River - Historical Background..............................................................29
1.4.1 Ancient Egypt.....................................................................................................29
1.4.2 The Roda Nilometer............................................................................................29
1.4.3 From the 19th Century to the Present...................................................................36
2 Analysis and Modeling of Hydrologie Processes - Theoretical Background...................................39
2.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................39
2.2 Handling of Trends.............................................................................................................41
2.3 Estimation of the Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation Functions..............................41
2.4 Autoregressive-Moving Average Models ARMA (p, q)........................................................43
2.4.1 Model Building...................................................................................................43
2.4.2 Simulation with ARMA-Models..........................................................................45
4
G. Reusing
2.5 Modeling of Long-Term Persistence....................................................................................46
2.5.1 Estimation of the Hurst Coefficient......................................................................46
2.5.2 Fractional Gaussian Noise fGn............................................................................47
3 Analysis and Modeling of the Selected Hydrologie Time Series of the River Nile........................51
3.1 Presentation of the Data Material - Description and Sources................................................51
3 .2 Nonhomogeneities and Inconsistencies - Preparation of the Data Material............................51
3.3 Properties in the Time Domain............................................................................................57
3.3.1 Basic Statistical Investigations............................................................................57
3.3.2 Analysis, Modeling and Simulation.....................................................................61
3.3.2.1 Roda Gauge Level Series......................................................................61
3.3.2.2 Annual Discharge of the Nile River......................................................68
3 .3 .2 .3 Discharge Series of the First Half-Year of the Main Nile.......................77
3.3.2.4 The Effect of Series Length on Parameter Estimation............................79
4 Risk Analysis for Hydrologie Droughts in the Nile Basin.............................................................81
4.1 Historical Droughts.............................................................................................................81
4 .2 Estimation of Drought Probabilities from the Roda Gauge Level Series and from
Corresponding Simulated Series..........................................................................................84
4.2.1 Comparison of Original and Simulated Frequency Distributions...........................84
4.2.2 Drought Termination Rates.................................................................................91
4.2.2.1 Theoretical Background........................................................................91
4.2.2.2 Practical Application............................................................................92
4 .2.3 Exceedance Probabilities and Expected Extreme Drought Durations....................95
4 .2 .4 The Importance of Drought Severity and Magnitude............................................97
4 .3 Application of the Roda Models on the Main Nile Flows.....................................................104
4 .4 Comparison of Short-Term and Long-Term Modeling Concepts in Respect to the
Estimation of Drought Risk for Nile Discharges.................................................................107
4.5 Conclusion for the Analysis of Drought Risk in the Nile Basin............................................110
5 Summary......................................................................................................................................113
6 Zusammenfassung.........................................................................................................................115
7 References.....................................................................................................................................117
Appendix Discharge gauge stations used and available ranges of data..................................................123
|
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spelling | Reusing, Gerold Verfasser aut Contribution to the risk analysis of hydrologic droughts based on hydrologic time series of the river Nile Gerold Reusing Berlin FB Geowiss., FU 1994 125 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Berliner geowissenschaftliche Abhandlungen : Reihe D, Geoinformatik 7 Zugl.: Berlin, Techn. Univ., Diss., 1994 Hydrologie (DE-588)4026309-5 gnd rswk-swf Trockenheit (DE-588)4186270-3 gnd rswk-swf Risiko (DE-588)4050129-2 gnd rswk-swf Nil (DE-588)4042339-6 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Nil (DE-588)4042339-6 g Trockenheit (DE-588)4186270-3 s Risiko (DE-588)4050129-2 s Hydrologie (DE-588)4026309-5 s DE-604 Berliner geowissenschaftliche Abhandlungen Reihe D, Geoinformatik ; 7 (DE-604)BV006634917 7 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009819665&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
spellingShingle | Reusing, Gerold Contribution to the risk analysis of hydrologic droughts based on hydrologic time series of the river Nile Berliner geowissenschaftliche Abhandlungen Hydrologie (DE-588)4026309-5 gnd Trockenheit (DE-588)4186270-3 gnd Risiko (DE-588)4050129-2 gnd |
subject_GND | (DE-588)4026309-5 (DE-588)4186270-3 (DE-588)4050129-2 (DE-588)4042339-6 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
title | Contribution to the risk analysis of hydrologic droughts based on hydrologic time series of the river Nile |
title_auth | Contribution to the risk analysis of hydrologic droughts based on hydrologic time series of the river Nile |
title_exact_search | Contribution to the risk analysis of hydrologic droughts based on hydrologic time series of the river Nile |
title_full | Contribution to the risk analysis of hydrologic droughts based on hydrologic time series of the river Nile Gerold Reusing |
title_fullStr | Contribution to the risk analysis of hydrologic droughts based on hydrologic time series of the river Nile Gerold Reusing |
title_full_unstemmed | Contribution to the risk analysis of hydrologic droughts based on hydrologic time series of the river Nile Gerold Reusing |
title_short | Contribution to the risk analysis of hydrologic droughts based on hydrologic time series of the river Nile |
title_sort | contribution to the risk analysis of hydrologic droughts based on hydrologic time series of the river nile |
topic | Hydrologie (DE-588)4026309-5 gnd Trockenheit (DE-588)4186270-3 gnd Risiko (DE-588)4050129-2 gnd |
topic_facet | Hydrologie Trockenheit Risiko Nil Hochschulschrift |
url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009819665&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
volume_link | (DE-604)BV006634917 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT reusinggerold contributiontotheriskanalysisofhydrologicdroughtsbasedonhydrologictimeseriesoftherivernile |