Identifying potential ethnic conflict: application of a process model
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Santa Monica u.a.
RAND
2000
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVII, 329 S. |
| ISBN: | 0833028421 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Identifying potential ethnic conflict |b application of a process model |c ed. by Thomas S. Szayna |
| 264 | 1 | |a Santa Monica u.a. |b RAND |c 2000 | |
| 300 | |a XVII, 329 S. | ||
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| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
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| 650 | 7 | |a Etnische conflicten |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Modellen |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Voorspellingen |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Minderheit |2 fes | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Politischer Konflikt |2 fes | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Sozialer Konflikt |2 fes | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Volksgruppe |2 fes | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Ethnic conflict |x Forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Political violence |x Forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Social conflict |x Forecasting | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Potenzial |0 (DE-588)4284936-6 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
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| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Prognose |0 (DE-588)4047390-9 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 651 | 7 | |a Jugoslawien |2 fes | |
| 651 | 7 | |a Saudi-Arabien |2 fes | |
| 651 | 7 | |a Südafrika |2 fes | |
| 651 | 7 | |a Äthiopien |2 fes | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804129136610902016 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
Preface iii
Figures xi
Tables xiii
Acknowledgments xvii
Chapter One
INTRODUCTION 1
The Context 1
The Model 8
Assumptions and Considerations 11
Organization 15
Chapter Two
THE PROCESS MODEL FOR ANTICIPATING
ETHNIC CONFLICT 17
Approaches to Ethnicity 17
The Primordialist Approach 18
The Epiphenomenalist Approach 21
The Ascriptive Approach 24
Rationale for Using the Ascriptive Approach 29
Introducing the Model 30
Stage I: Investigating the Potential for Strife 32
Closure 32
Identifying Closure 34
Stage II: Understanding the Transformation from
Potential to Likely Strife 39
Potential Versus Likely Strife 39
V
vi Identifying Potential Ethnic Conflict: Case Applications of a Process Model
Mobilization for Political Action 42
Stage III: From Likely to Actual Strife: Understanding
State Capabilities and the Process of Strategic
Bargaining 52
State Capacity 52
Strategic Bargaining 58
Chapter Three
THE YUGOSLAV RETROSPECTIVE CASE 75
Introduction 75
Assessing the Potential for Strife 77
Closure in the Political and Security Realms 77
Closure in the Economic Realm 89
Closure in the Social Realm 93
Overall Assessment of Closure 98
Transforming Potential Strife into Likely Strife 101
Incipient Changes 101
Tipping Events 104
Leadership 106
Resources and Organization 107
Foreign Element 109
Overall Assessment of Mobilization 109
Assessing the State 110
Accommodative Capability 110
Fiscal and Economic Capability 113
Coercive Capability 115
Strategic Bargaining 119
Measuring the Group s Capacities 119
Measuring the State s Capacities 120
Outcome of Bargaining and Preferences for Violence . . 122
The Course of Events 123
Final Observations 125
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of Yugoslavia in the
Late 1980s 128
Chapter Four
THE SOUTH AFRICAN RETROSPECTIVE CASE 133
Introduction 133
Assessing the Potential for Strife 136
Closure in the Political and Security Realms 136
Assessing Closure in the Economic Realm 142
Contents vii
Closure in the Social Realm 146
Overall Assessment of Closure 151
Transforming Potential Strife into Likely Strife 153
Incipient Changes 155
Tipping Events 159
Leadership 160
Resources and Organization 161
Foreign Element 163
Overall Assessment of Mobilization 164
Assessing the State 164
Accommodative Capability 164
Fiscal and Economic Capability 168
Coercive Capability 172
Strategic Bargaining 176
Measuring the Group s Capacities 176
Measuring the State s Capacities 178
Outcome of Bargaining and Preferences for Violence .. 179
The Course of Events 181
Final Observations 184
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of South Africa in the
Late 1980s 188
Chapter Five
THE ETHIOPIAN PROSPECTIVE CASE 193
Introduction 193
Assessing the Potential for Strife 195
Closure in the Political and Security Realms 195
Closure in the Economic Realm 201
Closure in the Social Realm 202
Overall Assessment of Closure 206
Transforming Potential Strife into Likely Strife 208
Primary Scenario: Amhara Mobilization 208
Incipient Changes 209
Tipping Events 209
Leadership 210
Resources and Organization 210
Foreign Element 211
Overall Assessment of Mobilization 212
Secondary Scenario: Oromo Mobilization 212
Tertiary Scenario: Somali Mobilization 213
viii Identifying Potential Ethnic Conflict: Case Applications of a Process Model
Assessing the State 215
Accommodative Capability 215
Fiscal and Economic Capability 218
Coercive Capability 220
Strategic Bargaining 222
Measuring the Group s Capacities 222
Measuring the State s Capacities 223
Outcome of Bargaining and Preferences for Violence . . 225
Revisiting the Evaluation 227
Final Observations 231
Afterword 233
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of Ethiopia in
1997 1998 234
Chapter Six
THE SAUDI ARABIAN PROSPECTIVE CASE 239
Introduction 239
Assessing the Potential for Strife 241
Closure in the Political and Security Realms 241
Closure in the Economic Realm 247
Closure in the Social Realm 249
Overall Assessment of Closure 252
Transforming Potential Strife into Likely Strife 253
Primary Scenario: Shi ite Mobilization 254
Incipient Changes 254
Tipping Events 256
Leadership 256
Resources and Organization 257
Foreign Element 257
Overall Assessment of Mobilization 258
Other Scenarios 259
Assessing the State 260
Accommodative Capability 260
Fiscal and Economic Capability 262
Coercive Capability 264
Strategic Bargaining 266
Measuring the Group s Capacities 266
Measuring the State s Capacities 267
Outcome of Bargaining and Preferences for Violence .. 268
Revisiting the Evaluation 270
Contents ix
Final Observations 273
Afterword 275
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of Saudi Arabia in
1997 1998 276
Chapter Seven
FINAL OBSERVATIONS 279
What Do the Case Studies Show? 279
Benefits of Using the Model 281
Cautionary Notes on Using the Model 284
Additional Uses of the Model 287
Future Research and Further Development of the Model . 288
Appendix: QUESTIONS AND GUIDELINES FOR
THEANALYST 291
About the Authors 329
FIGURES
1. Anticipating Ethnic Conflict 31
xi
TABLES
2.1. Capacity of a Mobilized Group 62
2.2. Capacity of the State 64
2.3. Characteristics of States and Groups, Ranked
According to Their Propensity Toward Violence 71
2.4. Propensity of States and Groups Toward Violence ... 72
3.1. Yugoslav State Presidency, January 1990 79
3.2. Federal Executive Council, January 1990 80
3.3. Yugoslav Federal Assembly, January 1990 80
3.4. Yugoslav Federal Chamber, January 1990 81
3.5. LCYPresidium, January 1990 82
3.6. The Federal Secretariat for National Defense, January
1990 83
3.7. Yugoslav People s Army, January 1990 84
3.8. Secretariat for Internal Affairs, January 1990 85
3.9. Per Capita Gross Social Product 91
3.10. Percentage of Contributions and Disbursements from
the Federal Fund 92
3.11. Status Stratification 94
3.12. Patterns of Closure by Ethnicity in Yugoslavia 99
3.13. Ranking of Ethnic Groups in Yugoslavia 100
3.14. Trends in Yugoslav Gross Social Product 113
3.15. Yugoslav Debt Data, 1984 1988 114
3.16. Population of Yugoslavia by Ethnicity 129
3.17. Ethnic Groups by Republic and Province 130
3.18. Population Distribution of Yugoslavia, 1981 1990 ... 131
4.1. South African Presidency and Main Cabinet
Members, April 1989 138
xiii
xiv Identifying Potential Ethnic Conflict: Case Applications of a Process Model
4.2. South African Chairmen of Ministers Councils, April
1989 138
4.3. South African Director Level Managers, 1986 139
4.4. Top South African Security Authorities, 1988 1989 ... 140
4.5. Average Monthly Earnings in South Africa, by Racial
Categories 144
4.6. Per Capita South African Governmental Educational
Expenditures by Racial Group, 1985 1986 146
4.7. Status Stratification 147
4.8. Patterns of Closure by Race in South Africa 152
4.9. Ranking of Groups in South Africa 153
4.10. South African Revenues and Expenditures 169
4.11. Structure of South Africa s Budget, 1987 1988 170
4.12. South Africa s Revenue Sources, 1987 1988 170
4.13. Income Tax Payable by Individuals, South Africa,
1986 170
4.14. Household Income and Political Party Support
Among Whites, South Africa, 1987 171
4.15. Population of South Africa (Including Homelands )
by Official Races 190
4.16. Population of South Africa (Excluding Homelands )
by Official Races 190
4.17. Major Intrablack Distinctions Among the Population
ofSouthAfrica 191
4.18. Population of the Sovereign Homelands 192
4.19. Intrawhite Distinctions Among the Population of
South Africa 192
5.1. Top Ethiopian Officials 196
5.2. Council of Ministers, Ethnic Breakdown 196
5.3. Representation in Government by Linguistic
Affiliation 197
5.4. Status Stratification 203
5.5. Patterns of Closure by Ethnicity in Ethiopia 207
5.6. Ranking of Ethnic Groups in Ethiopia 208
5.7. Ethiopian National Bank Reserves 219
5.8. Ethiopian Government Expenditures 219
5.9. Population of Ethiopia by Ethnicity 236
5.10. Religion Statistics 236
5.11. Population of Ethiopia by Language Group 237
6.1. Top Saudi Arabian Political Officials 242
Tables xv
6.2. Top Saudi Arabian Security Officials 244
6.3. Status Stratification 249
6.4. Patterns of Closure by Group Affinity in Saudi Arabia . 252
6.5. Ranking of Groups in Saudi Arabia 253
6.6. Saudi Arabian International Reserves 263
6.7. Saudi Arabian Government Expenditures 264
A.l. Capacity of a Mobilized Group 323
A.2. Capacity of the State 325
Matrixes
1. Mobilized Group Preferences 68
2. State Preferences 69
A.1. Mobilized Group Preferences 327
A.2. State Preferences 328
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| geographic_facet | Jugoslawien Saudi-Arabien Südafrika Äthiopien |
| id | DE-604.BV014248655 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T19:00:21Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0833028421 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Identifying potential ethnic conflict application of a process model ed. by Thomas S. Szayna Santa Monica u.a. RAND 2000 XVII, 329 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Etnische conflicten gtt Modellen gtt Voorspellingen gtt Minderheit fes Politischer Konflikt fes Sozialer Konflikt fes Volksgruppe fes Ethnic conflict Forecasting Political violence Forecasting Social conflict Forecasting Potenzial (DE-588)4284936-6 gnd rswk-swf Minderheitenfrage (DE-588)4169999-3 gnd rswk-swf Konflikt (DE-588)4032081-9 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Jugoslawien fes Saudi-Arabien fes Südafrika fes Äthiopien fes Minderheitenfrage (DE-588)4169999-3 s Konflikt (DE-588)4032081-9 s Potenzial (DE-588)4284936-6 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 Szayna, Thomas S. Sonstige oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009769761&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Identifying potential ethnic conflict application of a process model Etnische conflicten gtt Modellen gtt Voorspellingen gtt Minderheit fes Politischer Konflikt fes Sozialer Konflikt fes Volksgruppe fes Ethnic conflict Forecasting Political violence Forecasting Social conflict Forecasting Potenzial (DE-588)4284936-6 gnd Minderheitenfrage (DE-588)4169999-3 gnd Konflikt (DE-588)4032081-9 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4284936-6 (DE-588)4169999-3 (DE-588)4032081-9 (DE-588)4047390-9 |
| title | Identifying potential ethnic conflict application of a process model |
| title_auth | Identifying potential ethnic conflict application of a process model |
| title_exact_search | Identifying potential ethnic conflict application of a process model |
| title_full | Identifying potential ethnic conflict application of a process model ed. by Thomas S. Szayna |
| title_fullStr | Identifying potential ethnic conflict application of a process model ed. by Thomas S. Szayna |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying potential ethnic conflict application of a process model ed. by Thomas S. Szayna |
| title_short | Identifying potential ethnic conflict |
| title_sort | identifying potential ethnic conflict application of a process model |
| title_sub | application of a process model |
| topic | Etnische conflicten gtt Modellen gtt Voorspellingen gtt Minderheit fes Politischer Konflikt fes Sozialer Konflikt fes Volksgruppe fes Ethnic conflict Forecasting Political violence Forecasting Social conflict Forecasting Potenzial (DE-588)4284936-6 gnd Minderheitenfrage (DE-588)4169999-3 gnd Konflikt (DE-588)4032081-9 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Etnische conflicten Modellen Voorspellingen Minderheit Politischer Konflikt Sozialer Konflikt Volksgruppe Ethnic conflict Forecasting Political violence Forecasting Social conflict Forecasting Potenzial Minderheitenfrage Konflikt Prognose Jugoslawien Saudi-Arabien Südafrika Äthiopien |
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