Handbook of sports and lottery markets:
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Amsterdam [u.a.]
Elsevier
2008
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Handbooks in Finance
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXII, 536 S. graf. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780444507440 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Handbook of sports and lottery markets |c ed. by Donald B. Hausch ... |
| 264 | 1 | |a Amsterdam [u.a.] |b Elsevier |c 2008 | |
| 300 | |a XXII, 536 S. |b graf. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 0 | |a Handbooks in Finance | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Gambling systems | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Lotteries | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Sports betting | |
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| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-009681469 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804128999356497920 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Contributors
xvi
Preface
xix
Introduction to the Series
xxiii
Part I Industry Studies
1
1
Pari-Mutuel Horse Race Wagering
—
Competition from Within and
Outside the Industry
3
Richard Thalheimer and Mukhtar M.
Ali
1.
Introduction
4
2.
Competition from Casino Gaming
5
3.
Competition from State Lotteries
7
4.
Competition from Professional Sports
8
5.
Competition from Live Racing
8
6.
Competition from Simulcast Wagering
11
7.
Summary and Conclusions
13
References
14
2
Modeling Money Bet on Horse Races in Hong Kong
17
John Bacon-Shone and Alan Woods
1.
Introduction
18
2.
Variables examined
18
2.1.
Outcome Variables
18
2.2.
Independent Variables
19
3.
Results and Discussion
19
4.
Conclusion
21
References
22
Appendix:
31
Independent Variables Examined (Excluding Quadratic Terms)
23
viii Contents
Part II Utility, Probability, and Pace Estimation
25
3
Empirical Evidence on the Preferences of Racetrack Bettors
27
Bruno
Jullien
and Bernard
Salanié
1.
Introduction
28
2.
Some Stylized Facts
30
3.
Expected Utility
33
4.
Distortions of Probabilities
36
5.
Reference Points and Asymmetric Probability Weights
39
6.
Heterogeneous Preferences
42
7.
Exotic Bets
45
8.
Concluding Remarks
46
References
47
4
Approximating the Ordering Probabilities of Multi-Entry Competitions
by a Simple Method
51
Victor S.Y.
Lo
and John Bacon-Shone
1.
Introduction
52
2.
Theoretical Results of the Limiting Cases
53
3.
A Simple Approximation
56
3.1.
Empirical Analysis for the Approximated Henery Model
56
3.2.
Empirical Analysis for the Stern Model
57
4.
Conclusion
59
References
60
Appendix: Proof of Theorem
1 61
5
Modeling Distance Preference and Pace Character in Thoroughbred
Turf Racing
67
David
Edelman
1.
Background
68
2.
Case Study
1 :
Sha
Tin (Hong Kong,
SAR, PRC)
69
3.
Case Study
2:
Randwick (Sydney, Australia)
71
4.
Qualitative Questions
77
4.1.
Do Distance Specialists Exist?
77
4.2.
Pace, Class, and Time: The Central Paradox of Racing
78
4.3.
Jockeys: Distance or Pace Preference?
79
5.
Discussion
80
References
80
Contents ix
Part
III Favorite-Longshot
Bias in the Win Market
81
6
The Favorite-Longshot Bias: An Overview of the Main Explanations
83
Marco Ottaviani and Peter Norman
Ѕфгепѕеп
1.
Introduction
84
2.
Notation
87
3.
Misestimation of Probabilities
87
4.
Market Power by Informed Bettors
89
5.
Preference for Risk
90
6.
Heterogeneous Beliefs
93
7.
Market Power by Uninformed Bookmaker
95
8.
Limited Arbitrage
96
9.
Simultaneous Betting by Insiders
97
10.
Timing of Bets
99
10.1.
Early Betting
99
10.2.
Late Betting
99
References
100
7
Examining Explanations of a Market Anomaly: Preferences or Perceptions?
103
Erik Snowberg and Justin
Wolters
1.
Introduction
104
2.
Preferences
—
Expected Utility Models with Linear Probabilities
108
3.
Perceptions
—
The Weighting of True Probabilities 111
4.
Perceptions
—
Informational Effects
112
5.
Definition of Models and Implications for
Combinatorie
Bets
114
6.
Using
Combinatorie
Markets to Test the Models
119
6.1.
Testing Conditional Independence
123
6.2.
Relaxing Conditional Independence Further
125
7.
Conclusion
129
References
130
Appendix A: Pricing of
Combinatorie
Bets Using Conditional Independence
134
Appendix
В
:
Data
135
8
Unifying the Favorite-Longshot Bias with Other Market Anomalies
137
Russell S.
Sobel
and
Matt E.
Ryan
1.
Introduction
138
2.
Biases Found in the Previous Literature
138
3.
What Causes the Favorite-Longshot Bias at the Racetrack?
140
3.1.
The Casual Bettor
143
Contents
3.2.
The Serious or Regular Bettor
144
3.3.
The Arbitrageur
148
4.
Is it Risk or Information?
150
5.
Can the Model Explain the Biases in Other Markets?
156
6.
Conclusion
157
References
158
9
The Favorite-Longshot Bias in S&P
500
and FTSE
100
Index Futures
Options: The Return to Bets and the Cost of Insurance
161
Robert G. Tompkins, William X Ziemba, and Stewart D. Hodges
1.
Introduction
162
2.
Methodology
166
3.
Results
170
3.1.
Results for Quarterly Options on Stock Index Futures
174
3.2.
Results for Monthly Options on Stock Index Futures
175
4.
Conclusions
178
References
179
Part IV Weak Market Efficiency
181
10
Efficiency of Racing, Sports, and Lottery Betting Markets
183
William T. Ziemba
1.
Introduction
184
2.
Extent of Gambling in the U.S.
187
3.
Racetrack Betting Markets
190
3.1.
Introduction to Racetrack Betting
190
3.2.
Win Market
190
3.3.
Place and Show Markets
195
3.4.
Place and Show Probabilities
196
3.5.
Optimal Capital Growth
201
3.6.
Implementing the System and Empirical Results
203
3.7.
Does the System Still Provide Profits?
206
3.8.
Exotic Markets
207
3.9.
Cross-Track Betting
208
4.
The Football Betting Market
209
5.
The Basketball Betting Market
211
6.
Lotteries
212
6.1.
Introduction to Lotteries
212
6.2.
Inefficiencies with Unpopular Numbers
214
References
217
Contents Xl
11 Point
Spread
and Odds Betting: Baseball, Basketball, and American Football
223
Hal S. Stern
1.
Introduction
224
2.
Efficiency of Odds Betting Markets
224
2.1.
Horse Race Betting
224
2.2.
Baseball
226
3.
Efficiency of Point Spread Betting Markets
227
3.1.
American Football
227
3.2.
Basketball
230
4.
Relationship of Point Spread and Odds Betting
230
4.1.
Normal Distribution Result
231
4.2.
Applications of the Normal Approximation
233
5.
The Normal Model and Mid-Event Wagering
234
6.
Summary
236
References
237
12
Comparing Efficiency of the Over/Under-Bets on NFL and NBA Games
239
Joseph
Golec
and Maurry Tamarkin
1.
Introduction
240
2.
The Sports Betting Market: Setting Point Spreads and Over/Unders
240
3.
NFL and NBA Betting Market Efficiency
242
4.
Conclusion
249
References
251
13
Arbitrage and Risk Arbitrage in Team
Jai
Alai
253
Daniel
Lane and William
T. Ziemba
1.
Introduction
254
2.
The
Arbitrage
258
3.
Risk Arbitrages
261
4.
Final Remarks
269
References
271
PartV Semi-Strong Form Efficiency
273
14
Semi-Strong Form Information Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets
275
M. Sung and J. E. V. Johnson
1.
Introduction
276
2.
Semi-Strong Form Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets:
Single Variable Models
277
2.1.
Arbitrage Between Parallel Markets
278
2.2
Professional Predictions
285
xii Contents
2.3.
Betting
Volume 289
2.4. Post Position 290
2.5.
Pedigree
291
2.6.
Distance Preference
292
2.7.
Single Variable Models: Overview
292
3.
Semi-Strong Form Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets:
Multiple Variable Models
293
3.1.
Distribution-Based Methods
294
3.2.
Distribution-Free Methods
298
3.3.
Multiple Variable Models: Overview
300
4.
Semi-Strong Form Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets: Conclusion
301
References
302
15
The Dosage Breeding Theory for Horse Racing Predictions
307
Marshall
Gramm
and William T. Ziemba
1.
Introduction
308
2.
The Racetrack as a Sequence of Markets
310
3.
The Dosage Index and Performance Measures
311
4.
Data Acquisition
314
5.
Application of Breeding Information and Performance Measures to
Refine Estimated Win Probabilities for the Kentucky Derby
314
6.
The Kelly Betting Model
320
7.
The Kentucky Derby,
1981-2007 322
8.
The Preakness Stakes,
1946-2006 327
9.
The Belmont Stakes,
1946-2006 329
10.
Conclusions
330
References
331
Appendix A: Data Sources
333
A.I Public s Wagering
333
A.2. Pedigrees
333
A3.
Chef-de-Race Listings
333
A.4. Experimental Free Handicap Listings
334
A.
5.
Results of the Kentucky Derby and Major Races Prior to the
Kentucky Derby
334
Appendix B: Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Winners,
1946-2006 334
16
Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets: The Role of Professional Tipsters
341
Bruno Deschamps
and Olivier Gergaud
1.
Introduction
342
2.
The Model
343
3.
Data
345
3.1.
Tips and Rewards Rules
345
Contents
ХШ
3.2. Public Information 346
3.3.
Measuring Forecast Originality
347
4.
Results
348
4.1.
Results of Frequency Tests
348
4.2.
Originality and Accuracy
348
4.3.
Anti-Herding and Excess Originality
350
5.
Conclusion
351
References
351
Appendix: Proof of Equation
(5) 353
Part VI Prediction Markets
355
17
Index Betting for Sports and Stock Indices
357
John Haigh and Leighton Vaughan Williams
1.
Background
358
2.
How Index Betting Operates
360
3.
Setting Spreads
362
4.
Spreads in Performance Indices
365
5.
Advantageous Bets
368
6.
Regulation, Taxation, and Biases in Spread Betting Markets
372
References
374
Appendix A
377
Appendix
В
378
Appendix
С
380
18
Prediction Markets: From Politics to Business (and Back)
385
Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers, and
Eric Zitzewitz
1.
Overview
386
2.
The First Prediction Markets
388
3.
Markets in the Lab
391
4.
Current Uses of Prediction Markets: Business and Policy
393
5.
Future Directions: Decision Markets
397
6.
Potential Pitfalls
398
7.
Conclusion
400
References
401
19
Betting Exchanges: A Technological Revolution in Sports Betting
403
Michael A. Smith and Leighton Vaughan Williams
1.
Introduction
404
2.
The Operation of Betting Exchanges
404
xiv Contents
3.
Empirical
Models
and Evidence Concerning Weak-Form Information
Efficiency in Betting Exchanges
409
4.
New Evidence on the Degree of Bias in Betting Exchange Odds
412
5.
Conclusions
416
References
417
Part
VII
Soccer
419
20
Soccer Betting in Britain
421
David Forrest
1.
Introduction
422
2.
Development of Soccer Betting
423
3.
Transactions Costs in the Fixed Odds Market
426
4.
Early Study of Market Efficiency
429
5.
Tipsters
431
6.
Fundamental Analysis as an Aid to Soccer Betting
432
7.
Technical Analysis
437
8.
Sentiment
440
9
The Future of Research on Soccer Betting
443
References
444
21
Efficiency of Soccer Betting Odds
—
Evidence from a Pan-European
Electronic Market
447
Stephan Kossmeier
and Simon Weinberger
1.
Introduction
448
2.
The Soccer Betting Market
449
3.
Data Description
450
4
Efficiency Tests
451
4.1.
Statistical Tests
451
4.2.
Economic Tests
454
5.
Conclusion
455
References
456
Part
VIII
Lotteries
457
22
How to Design a Lottery
459
Ian Walker
1.
Introduction
460
2.
The Odds of Winning a (Pari-Mutuel) Lottery
464
3.
The Expected Value Calculation
465
Contents
XV
4. Higher Moments
of the Prize
Distribution 467
5.
Econometric Methodology, Data, and Estimates
469
6.
Game Design Simulations
474
7.
Conclusion
476
References
477
Appendix: The Expected Value Formula
479
23
The Statistics of Lotteries
481
John Haigh
1.
Introduction
482
2.
Prize Structure and Winning Chances
485
3.
Tests of Randomness
491
4.
Gambler Choices
496
References
502
24
U.S. Lotto Markets
503
Victor Matheson and Kent
Grote
1.
Introduction
504
2.
Differences Between American and European Lotteries
509
3.
Fungibili
ty
of Lottery Revenues
512
4.
Efficiency of Lottery Markets
—
Parti
516
5.
Efficiency of Lottery Markets
—
Part
2 519
6.
Efficiency of Lottery Markets
—
Part
3 521
7.
Conclusions
522
References
523
Subject Index
525
Author Index
533
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| id | DE-604.BV014126786 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:58:10Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780444507440 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-009681469 |
| oclc_num | 845282285 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-91 DE-BY-TUM |
| owner_facet | DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-91 DE-BY-TUM |
| physical | XXII, 536 S. graf. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2008 |
| publishDateSearch | 2008 |
| publishDateSort | 2008 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Handbooks in Finance |
| spelling | Handbook of sports and lottery markets ed. by Donald B. Hausch ... Amsterdam [u.a.] Elsevier 2008 XXII, 536 S. graf. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Handbooks in Finance Gambling systems Lotteries Sports betting Lotterie (DE-588)4168184-8 gnd rswk-swf Sportwette (DE-588)4220373-9 gnd rswk-swf Sportwette (DE-588)4220373-9 s Lotterie (DE-588)4168184-8 s DE-604 Hausch, Donald B. Sonstige oth Digitalisierung UB Bamberg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009681469&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Handbook of sports and lottery markets Gambling systems Lotteries Sports betting Lotterie (DE-588)4168184-8 gnd Sportwette (DE-588)4220373-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4168184-8 (DE-588)4220373-9 |
| title | Handbook of sports and lottery markets |
| title_auth | Handbook of sports and lottery markets |
| title_exact_search | Handbook of sports and lottery markets |
| title_full | Handbook of sports and lottery markets ed. by Donald B. Hausch ... |
| title_fullStr | Handbook of sports and lottery markets ed. by Donald B. Hausch ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Handbook of sports and lottery markets ed. by Donald B. Hausch ... |
| title_short | Handbook of sports and lottery markets |
| title_sort | handbook of sports and lottery markets |
| topic | Gambling systems Lotteries Sports betting Lotterie (DE-588)4168184-8 gnd Sportwette (DE-588)4220373-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Gambling systems Lotteries Sports betting Lotterie Sportwette |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009681469&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hauschdonaldb handbookofsportsandlotterymarkets |