Internet valuation: the way ahead
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Basingstoke [u.a.]
Palgrave
2002
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schriftenreihe: | Finance and capital markets
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Table of contents Publisher description Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXVI, 454 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0333949609 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804128972646121472 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Figures xiii
List of Tables xvi
Preface xix
Acknowledgements xxii
List of Abbreviations xxiii
PARTI THE BASICS 1
1 Basic Valuation Theory 3
Why Investors Buy Stocks and Shares 3
Internet Firms: Are They Different? 3
Valuation Using the Greater Fool Theory ? 4
Market Value and Intrinsic Value 5
How Do We Value Future Cash Flows from Companies? 6
Valuing Payments from Safe Investments 7
Valuing Payments from Risky Investments 8
The CAPM Model of Calculating the Discount Rate for
a Company s Equity 10
Definition of Cash Flow for Companies 11
Capital Structure of Companies and the Calculation of the WACC 12
Valuation Example 15
CONTENTS
2 Case Study: Valuing Amazon.com 19
Introduction 19
Setting the Scene 19
Background and Funding 20
Lines of Business 21
Inventory and Fixed Assets 22
Opportunities 24
Threats 25
Possible Comparator Companies 26
Appendix 2.1: Historical Accounts of Amazon.com 27
Appendix 2.2: Possible Comparator Companies 32
3 Amazon.com: Accounting Review 40
Case Materials 40
Company Accounting Statements are Key Information 40
Revenues, Costs and Assets 41
What We Can Find in the Company Accounts 42
Historical and Projected Revenue 63
Variable and Fixed Costs 66
The Limitations of Operating Leverage 70
Funding of Assets 70
Cash Inflows from Investors 71
Earnings and Cash Rows 72
The Role of Cash Flows and the Role of Earnings 75
The Economic Profit Model in Brief 76
Appendix 3.1: Advanced Issues 77
4 Establishing the Base Case Valuation for Amazon.com 93
Cash flow Analysis: Setting Up the Problem 94
Stages 1 and 2: Tabulation and Graphing of Key Operating
and Financial Parameters; Estimation of Value Drivers 94
Stage 3: Building the Spreadsheet Model 114
Completing CFA: Best Case and Worst Case Analysis 136
Funding Crunch Analysis 137
Can this Model be Used for Other Internet Companies? 140
Augmenting the Model 140
Points of Departure 141
PART II ADVANCED VALUATION TOPICS 143
5 The Cost of Capital 145
What Do We Mean by the Cost of Capital ? 145
CONTENTS
Taxonomy of Methods for Determining the Cost of Capital 146
The Recommended Method is the CAPM 147
Formula based Theories 150
Determining the Parameters for the CAPM 153
Putting It All Together 163
Appendix 5.1: Derivation of CAPM 164
6 RoCEL: Return on Capital Limitation Technique 167
Competition Limits Return on Capital 167
Practical Aspects of RoA Control Using Excel 169
What is the Right Number for Operating Assets? 171
Guidelines for Depreciation of Intangible Assets 176
Continuing the Amazon Example 177
Appendix 6.1: Straight line and Declining Balance Depreciation 184
7 Options I: ESOPs and Convertible Debt 187
What is an Option ? 187
Valuing Financial Options 190
What are ESOPs or Management Share Options? 193
Accounting Treatment of Share Options 195
Taxation Treatment of ESOPs 198
Impact of Employee Stock Options on Enterprise and
Equity Valuation 199
Valuing Convertibles when the Market Price is not Available 212
Appendix 7.1: Calculating Volatility 218
8 Options II: Real Options 221
The Real Option Analogy 221
Procedure for Determining Real Option Value for a Company 227
Appendix 8.1: Risk neutral/Binomial Method of Calculating
Option Values Worked Example 236
9 Assessing Current Practice in Valuation 239
The Valuation Challenges of 1995 99 239
The Rise of Comparables 240
P/E ratio: The First Comparable 241
Price/Revenue Ratios 245
Lyin Eyeballs: Gaming the Comparables 250
Making the Best of Comparables 251
Projected PE Ratios 252
The Gordon Growth Formula: Use and Abuse 253
CONTENTS
High Asset Efficiency and its Potential Effect on Value:
Cashflow.com 255
Looking at DCF 259
Other Potential Issues in Equity Value 264
Pulling it all Together 268
10 Market Efficiency and Internet Stocks 269
How it Happened 269
How Efficient is the Market? 271
Good News and Bad News about Market Efficiency 273
Misvaluation and Market Efficiency 274
Market Efficiency: Why Should We Care? 276
The Trouble with Value 277
Summary: The Efficiency of the Market 278
PART III ADDRESSING THE STRATEGIC ISSUES 279
11 The Profitability Imperative and Competitive Advantage 281
Internet Business Must Be a Business, Not an Enterprise 281
Most Early Stage Businesses are Privately Held 283
Strict Cash Diet for Public Internet Companies 283
The Need for Shifts in Business Models 284
The Case of B2B Exchanges 285
Summary: The Profitability Imperative 289
12 Applying Standard Strategic Models to Internet Businesses 291
Traditional Strategic Insights are Relevant to Internet Firms 291
The Internet is a Harsh Mistress 291
The Search is on for Sustainable Competitive Advantage 293
Are We in the Right Place? Determining Industry Attractiveness 294
Key Elements of the Internal Structure of the Corporation 310
The Product Life Cycle 315
Strategy: Beyond Porter Analysis 318
Valuing Amazon: Weighting the Scenarios 319
Discontinuity Analysis (DCA) 320
13 Assessing the New Economy Models 321
Is the New New Stuff Old Hat? 321
Disaggregation of Product and Data 322
Decrease in Importance of the Richness versus Reach Trade off 323
The Value Chain and the Value Web 325
Customer Time Economics: Example of Food Retail 327
CONTENTS
Customer Propensity to Buy 332
The Value subtracting Intermediary 335
The Network Effect: When it Works and When it Does Not 336
The Auction Economy and the QECAP Model 339
Chameleonization 344
14 The Outlook for Internet Business Segments 345
The Strategic Models within the Internet Cluster 345
Broadband 350
Mobile/M commerce 353
Screen and Keyboard Limitations 354
Navigating the 3G Jungle 355
15 Case Study NTT Do Co Mo: Mobile Telephony in japan 357
Introduction 357
Background 357
The I mode Service 358
Business Areas 359
Stock Price and Financial Performance 360
Cost of Capital 361
Appendix 15.1: NTT Do Co Mo: I mode Service 362
Appendix 15.2: NTT Do Co Mo: Type of Use Data 363
Appendix 15.3: NTT Do Co Mo: Outline Financial Data 364
Appendix 15.4: NTT Do Co Mo: Detailed Financials 366
PART IV APPLICATIONS 373
16 Valuing Start up Firms 375
Many Start ups Worthless 375
Clearing the Quality Bar 377
Valuation Based on Triangulation 379
Prelude to Valuation: Checking and Testing the Plan 380
Comparable deal based Valuation 382
Cash flow Projection based (or similar) Valuation 389
Public Market Multiple based Valuation 395
Discounted Expected Flotation Proceeds Valuation 398
Discounted Terminal Value Valuation (Hybrid Method) 399
Putting it all Together: Triangulation 400
17 Case Study: Trendybop.com: Fashion for the e Ceneration 405
Introduction 405
The Trendybop Concept 405
CONTENTS
Trendybop Staff and Investors 406
The Trendybop Business Model 407
Funding Requirements for Trendybop 409
Outline Financial Projections for Trendybop 409
The European Fashion Market 410
Competitors and Comparable Companies 410
How to Use this Case Study 411
18 Issues in Internet M A Valuation 413
Evidence on the Returns to M A Activity 413
The Difficulty of Determining Returns to Internet M A 415
Valuation Methodology for Internet M A 416
Assessing Motivations for M A 417
Key Threats to Successful Acquisition 420
The Future of Internet Acquisitions 422
19 Case Study: AOL and Time Warner 423
Introduction 423
Background 423
Merger Between AOL and Time Warner 424
Accounting for the Merger 424
Prospects for the Companies and Motivation for the Merger 424
Possible Synergies 426
Potential Threats 426
Integration and Succession 427
Post merger Performance 427
Appendix 19.1: Accounts for AOL Time Warner 429
20 Issues in Clicks and Mortar 434
The Promise of Clicks and Mortar 434
Seamless Support for the Customer 435
Practical Issues in Valuing Clicks and Mortar 436
Procurement Savings 437
Asset Efficiency 438
Limited Timescale 439
The Business Risks 440
Summary 441
Conclusion: Back to Value 443
References 445
Index 449
List of Figures
1.1 Changes in the risk free rate for 13 week US treasuries 11
2.1 Stock price chart of Amazon.com (AMZN) 20
3.1 Amazon.com: income statement 44
3.2 Amazon.com: balance sheet 53
3.3 Amazon.com: cash flow statement 61
3.4 Example of a pro forma 85
3.5 From Note 6 of the 10Q report 86
3.6 From Note 6 of the 10Q report 87
3.7 From the 10K statement 89
4.1 Revenue growth (quarter on quarter) 96
4.2 Revenue growth (quarter vs. 4 quarters ago) 97
4.3 Ln(revenue growth) vs. time 98
4.4 Amazon.com: cost breakdown 104
4.5 Amazon.com: gross margin 105
4.6 Costs vs. revenues 106
4.7 Amazon.com: assets as % of revenues 110
4.8 Amazon.com: operating liabilities as % of revenues 110
4.9 Amazon.com: net assets (conservative) 111
4.10 The modular structure of the spreadsheet 115
4.11 Parameters block 117
4.12 The past data block 119
4.13 Projected income statement (after step 5) 122
4.14 Projected income statement (after step 10) 124
4.15 Projected balance sheet 128
LIST OF FIGURES
4.16 Projected income statement after step 19 129
4.17 Projected cash flow statement 131
4.18 Calculation of present value of FCFs 1 34
4.19 Calculation of equity value under CCA 135
4.20 The parameters block under best case (BCA) 1 37
4.21 The parameters block under worst case (WCA) 1 38
4.22 WCA debt line 139
5.1 Example of the benefits of diversification 149
6.1 Distribution of RoCE (large firms, with revenue per annum)
(1967 1998) 168
6.2 Cumulative distribution of RoCE 168
6.3 Amazon.com: annual marketing spend 178
6.4 Evolution of the marketing asset over time 1 79
6.5 Evolution of the technology asset over time 179
6.6 Amazon.com: RoCE limitation section 183
7.1 Payoff diagram for Yahoo! call options 188
7.2 Profit diagram for Yahoo! call options 189
7.3 Payoff at expiry diagram for Yahoo! put options 189
7.4 Profit at expiry diagram for Yahoo! 190
7.5 Amazon.com: stock option plans 204
7.6 Amazon.com: stock option activity 205
7.7 Amazon.com: options 206
7.8 Amazon.com: pro forma disclosure 207
7.9 Amazon.com: long term debt 211
7.10 Conditions of Amazon.com Convertible Subordinated Notes 213
8.1 Profit diagram for call option 222
8.2 Analogous profit diagram for a real option 223
8.3 Platform NPV calculation: binomial world 236
8.4 Growth option tree diagram and calculations 237
9.1 Converting PE into growth rate 244
9.2 Distribution of net margin: large firms (revenues $1 m) (1967 2000) 247
9.3 Balance sheet 256
10.1 NASDAQ composite 269
12.1 The supply chain or value chain 296
12.2 Amazon.corn s value chain 311
12.3 The generic product life cycle 316
13.1 Richness vs. reach trade off 324
13.2 Richnes vs. reach: use of internet interfaces 325
13.3 Communications within the metals industry via the value chain 326
LIST OF FIGURES
13.4 Communications within the metals industry via the value web 326
1 3.5 Traditional vs. online shopping 329
13.6 Purchase of physical products 333
14.1 Strategic models within the internet cluster 345
14.2 Strategic models within the internet cluster 346
14.3 Yahoo! revenue per page view 348
15.1 NTT Do Co Mo: growth in subscribers to l mode 358
15.2 NTT Do Co Mo share price 1998 2001 361
16.1 Format of round data 384
16.2 Venture capital returns: 1990 2000 391
19.1 AOL stock price performance since the merger announcement 428
19.2 AOL Time Warner: income statement 429
19.3 AOL Time Warner: segmental breakdown 431
19.4 AOL Time Warner: consolidated balance sheet 432
List of Tables
1.1 KWSN: projected data for years 1 5 16
1.2 KWSN: projected post tax profits (cash flows) for years 1 5 16
2.1 Timeline of stores opened by Amazon.com 22
2.2 Amazon.com sales (US only): full year 2001 23
2.3 Amazon.com: partnerships 23
2.4 Amazon.com: distribution centres (December 1999) 24
2.5 Amazon.com s competitors 25
2.6 Amazon.com: annual 27
2.7 Amazon.com: quarterly 29
2.8 Amazon.com: quarterly balance sheet 30
2.9 Amazon.com: segmental 31
2.10 Barnes Noble (BKS): accounting data ( $m) 32
2.11 Borders Group (BGP): accounting data ( $m) 34
2.12 Wal Mart (WMT): accounting data ( $m) 36
2.1 3 Target (TGT): accounting data ( $m) 38
3.1a HardCompany format 1: cashflow 74
3.1b HardCompany format 2: depreciation 74
3.2 Cheaptickets: quarterly reports 79
4.1 Stages of valuation analysis 93
4.2 Amazon.com: comparison of prediction methods 100
4.3 Amazon, com: product lines 101
4.4 Amazon, com: strategic options 102
4.5 Amazon.com: costs as a percentage of sales 106
4.6 Cost classification: results of accounts analysis method 107
4.7 Amazon.com: detailed changes in cash 2001 Q1 Q4 113
|xvi|
LIST OF TABLES
4.8 Amazon.com: summary of value drivers 114
4.9 Amazon.com: recap of CFA scenarios 136
6.1 Returns on capital (standards) 169
6.2 Specific formulae for a spreadsheet 170
6.3 10 year depreciation: income statement 173
6.4 10 year depreciation: balance sheet 173
6.5 Amazon.com: initial parameters 177
6.6 Amazon.com: Interbrand s valuations 180
6.7 Final results of CFA after RoCE limitation 184
6.8 Timescale of depreciation (straight line: 3 years) 185
6.9 Timescale of depreciation (declining balance: 50%) 185
7.1 Relationships between parameters and values (Black Scholes) 192
7.2 Amazon.com: option value calculations 209
7.3 Amazon.com: equity value 212
7.4 Convertibles debt element: example calculation 215
7.5 Convertibles debt element: calculation at risk free rate 21 7
8.1 When real options are valuable and when they are not 226
8.2 Effects of competition on option value 228
8.3 Real option values: effect of competition 229
8.4 Identifying the main real options for Amazon.com 231
8.5 Amazon.com s competitors in identified markets 232
8.6 Market sizes and market values of industries where Amazon
may have real options 234
8.7 Calculation of the value of Amazon s real options 235
9.1 Examples of comparables 242
9.2 Price/revenue table (November 1999) 247
9.3 Return of P/R ratio quintile portfolios 248
9.4 Earnings multipliers for perpetual growth (Gordon model) and
years 1 to 10 growth 254
9.5 From DLJ analysts reports on Amazon.com 255
9.6 Amazon.com: projected revenue growth, based on 1999 data 258
11.1 Changing business models 286
12.1 Value chain analysis 310
12.2 Products with a short introductory phase: a comparison 317
12.3 Amazon.com: final valuation 319
13.1 Network effects on the internet 340
13.2 Suitability for auction vs. information needed to describe product 342
14.1 B2C e commerce 347
14.2 B2B e commerce (exchanges) 347
LIST OF TABLES
14.3 Content 348
14.4 Access 349
14.5 Software infrastructure 349
14.6 Hardware infrastructure 350
14.7 Services 350
14.8 Common residential broadband connections 351
14.9 Levels of video on demand (VOD) 352
14.10 Levels of mobile network speed 355
15.1 NTT Do Co Mo: revenues (half year to September 2001) 359
15.2 Guideline costs 362
15.3 l mode accesses: email vs. I Menu vs. non l menu sites 363
15.4 l menu site breakdown by category 363
15.5 l mode accesses: hits by category (Do Co Mo premium websites) 363
15.6 Financial data 364
15.7 Segmental data 365
15.8 Balance sheets 366
15.9 Income statements 368
15.10 Cash flow statements 369
16.1 Characteristics of funding rounds 385
16.2 Venture capital required returns 392
17.1 Trendybop.com: outline financial projections 410
17.2 The fashion market in Western Europe 411
17.3 Trendybop.com: comparator companies 412
19.1 AOL Time Warner: projected figures for growth and key markets 425
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Briginshaw, John |
| author_facet | Briginshaw, John |
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| callnumber-sort | HG 44028 V3 B65 42002 |
| callnumber-subject | HG - Finance |
| classification_rvk | QP 770 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)49320546 (DE-599)BVBBV014105888 |
| dewey-full | 658.15 658.1521 |
| dewey-hundreds | 600 - Technology (Applied sciences) |
| dewey-ones | 658 - General management |
| dewey-raw | 658.15 658.15 21 |
| dewey-search | 658.15 658.15 21 |
| dewey-sort | 3658.15 |
| dewey-tens | 650 - Management and auxiliary services |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 1. publ. |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV014105888 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:57:44Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0333949609 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-009663481 |
| oclc_num | 49320546 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-M382 DE-521 DE-11 |
| owner_facet | DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-M382 DE-521 DE-11 |
| physical | XXVI, 454 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2002 |
| publishDateSearch | 2002 |
| publishDateSort | 2002 |
| publisher | Palgrave |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Finance and capital markets |
| spelling | Briginshaw, John Verfasser aut Internet valuation the way ahead John Briginshaw 1. publ. Basingstoke [u.a.] Palgrave 2002 XXVI, 454 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Finance and capital markets E-business gtt Taxatie gtt Corporations -- Valuation Electronic commerce Internet industry -- Finance Unternehmensbewertung (DE-588)4078594-4 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd rswk-swf Internet (DE-588)4308416-3 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 s Internet (DE-588)4308416-3 s Unternehmensbewertung (DE-588)4078594-4 s DE-604 http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/hol031/2002025180.html Table of contents http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/hol031/2002025180.html Publisher description HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009663481&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Briginshaw, John Internet valuation the way ahead E-business gtt Taxatie gtt Corporations -- Valuation Electronic commerce Internet industry -- Finance Unternehmensbewertung (DE-588)4078594-4 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Internet (DE-588)4308416-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4078594-4 (DE-588)4061963-1 (DE-588)4308416-3 |
| title | Internet valuation the way ahead |
| title_auth | Internet valuation the way ahead |
| title_exact_search | Internet valuation the way ahead |
| title_full | Internet valuation the way ahead John Briginshaw |
| title_fullStr | Internet valuation the way ahead John Briginshaw |
| title_full_unstemmed | Internet valuation the way ahead John Briginshaw |
| title_short | Internet valuation |
| title_sort | internet valuation the way ahead |
| title_sub | the way ahead |
| topic | E-business gtt Taxatie gtt Corporations -- Valuation Electronic commerce Internet industry -- Finance Unternehmensbewertung (DE-588)4078594-4 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Internet (DE-588)4308416-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | E-business Taxatie Corporations -- Valuation Electronic commerce Internet industry -- Finance Unternehmensbewertung Unternehmen Internet |
| url | http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/hol031/2002025180.html http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/hol031/2002025180.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009663481&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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