Risk, reliability, uncertainty, and robustness of water resources systems:
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge [u.a.]
Cambridge Univ. Press
2002
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schriftenreihe: | International hydrology series
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XV, 220 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 0521800366 |
Internformat
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| adam_text | INTERNATIONAL HYDROLOGY SERIES RISK, RELIABILITY, UNCERTAINTY, AND
ROBUSTNESS OF WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS EDITED BY JANOS J. BOGARDI
DIVISION OF WATER SCIENCES, UNESCO, PARIS, FRANCE ZBIGNIEW W. KUNDZEWICZ
RESEARCH CENTRE OF AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST ENVIRONMENT, POLISH ACADEMY
OF SCIENCES, POZNAN, POLAND AND POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT
RESEARCH, POTSDAM, GERMANY CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS CONTENTS LIST OF
CONTRIBUTORS PAGE XIII 1 INTRODUCTION 1 JANOS J. BOGARDI AND ZBIGNIEW W.
KUNDZEWICZ ASPECTS OF UNCERTAINTY, RELIABILITY, AND RISK IN FLOOD
FORECASTING SYSTEMS INCORPORATING WEATHER RADAR ROBERT J. MOORE 30
INTEGRATED REGIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT AND SAFETY MANAGEMENT: CHALLENGE
FROM AGENDA 21 ADRIAN V GHEORGHE 4.1 INTRODUCTION 4.2 UNCERTAINTY IN
FLOOD FORECASTS 4.3 RELIABILITY AND SYSTEM COMPLEXITY 4.4 RISK AND
ENSEMBLE FORECASTING 4.5 CONCLUSION 30 30 36 38 40 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.6 2.7 2.8 INTRODUCTION REGIONAL SAFETY PLANNING ON SOME ORGANIZATIONAL
ASPECTS TECHNIQUES FOR INTERACTIVE DECISION PROCESSES IN IRRASM THE USE
OF DSS FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT STUDIES THE USE OF GIS TECHNOLOGY
FOR IRRASM THE KOVERS APPROACH CONCLUSIONS 4 5 7 8 8 13 15 21 5 PN RO
I J. I 5 J J. J C A S FT J .U 3 RISK ANALYSIS: THE UNBEARABLE CLEVERNESS
OF BLUFFING V KLEMES 22 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 INTRODUCTION FOR
PRACTICAL PURPOSES . .. CLIMATE-CHANGE-IMPACT SCENARIOS: FROM BLUFFING
TO METABLUFFING IN PRAISE OF THEORY AND ROBUST RESULTS A REALITY CHECK
CONCLUSIONS, OR A TALE ABOUT UNKUNKS, KUNKS, AND SKUNKS 22 23 24 25 26
28 PROBABILISTIC HYDROMETEOROIOGICAL FORECASTING 41 ROMAN KRZYSZTOFOWICZ
INTRODUCTION 41 PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS 42 PRECIPITATION FORECASTING
SYSTEM 43 STAGE FORECASTING SYSTEM 44 FLOOD WARNING DECISION SYSTEM 45
CLOSURE 45 6 FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT: RISK CARTOGRAPHY FOR OBJECTIVE
NEGOTIATIONS 47 O. GILARD 6.1 INTRODUCTION 47 6.2 DEFINITIONS AND
CONCEPTS 47 6.3 INONDABILITE METHOD 48 6.4 NECESSITY AND CONSEQUENCES
OF AN OBJECTIVE NEGOTIATION 52 6.5 CONCLUSIONS 53 7 RESPONSES TO THE
VARIABILITY AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF CLIMATE IN AUSTRALIA 54
JONATHAN F. THOMAS AND BRYSON C. BATES IX CONTENTS 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5
7.6 VARIABILITY IN AUSTRALIA S CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGY CLIMATE CHANGE
URBAN SYSTEMS IRRIGATION SYSTEMS INFRASTRUCTURE ROBUSTNESS CONCLUSIONS
54 55 55 58 60 61 DEVELOPING AN INDICATOR OF A COMMUNITY S DISASTER RISK
AWARENESS 62 NORIO OKADA 8.1 INTRODUCTION 62 8.2 THE 1994-95 DROUGHT 62
8.3 MEASURING THE INVISIBLES OF SOCIETY 62 8.4 A CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS
OF THE DROUGHT-RELATED SOCIAL MESSAGES OF NEWSPAPER ARTICLES 64 8.5
ANALYSIS OF THE OBSERVED WATER SAVING PHENOMENON: ANOTHER EXAMINATION OF
THE WORKING HYPOTHESIS 65 8.6 MODELING THE SPRD-WSP TRANSFORMATIONAL
MECHANISM: AN ANALOGY OF THE WATER SAVING ACTION USING THE TANK MODEL
66 8.7 CONCLUSIONS 69 DETERMINATION OF CAPTURE ZONES OF WELLS BY MONTE
CARLO SIMULATION 70 W. KINZELBACH, S. VASSOLO, AND G.-M. LI 9.1 9.2 9.3
9.4 9.5 INTRODUCTION PROBLEMS ARISING IN THE DETERMINISTIC DETERMINATION
OF CAPTURE ZONES DETERMINATION OF A CAPTURE ZONE BY MONTE CARLO
SIMULATION RESULTS CONCLUSIONS 70 71 71 72 75 10 CONTROLLING THREE
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTIES FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK MODELS THIERRY FAHMY, ERIC
PARENT, AND DOMINIQUE GATEL 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 INTRODUCTION A
NEW ALERT MODEL CASE STUDY DESCRIPTION RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSIONS 76
76 76 79 79 81 83 11 STOCHASTIC PRECIPITATION-RUNOFF MODELING FOR WATER
YIELD FROM A SEMI-ARID FORESTED WATERSHED 86 AREGAI TECLE AND DAVID E.
RUPP 11.1 INTRODUCTION 86 11.2 STUDY SITE CHARACTERISTICS 87 11.3 MODEL
DEVELOPMENT 88 11.4 ANALYSIS OF RESULTS 92 11.5 EVALUATING RISK AND
RELIABILITY IN WATER YIELD 96 11.6 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 97 12
REGIONAL ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE YIELD OF
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS 101 RICHARD M. VOGEL, CHRISTOPHER J. BELL, RANJITH
R. SURESH, AND NEIL M. FENNESSEY 12.1 INTRODUCTION 101 12.2 MODEL
TIME-STEP FOR REGIONAL ASSESSMENT 102 12.3 DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL
HYDROCLIMATOLOGICAL STREAMFLOW MODEL 102 12.4
STORAGE-RELIABILITY-RESILIENCE-YIELD RELATIONSHIPS 107 12.5 SENSITIVITY
OF WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM BEHAVIOR TO CLIMATE CHANGE 107 12.6 CONCLUSIONS ,
109 13 HYDROLOGICAL RISK UNDER NONSTATIONARY CONDITIONS CHANGING
HYDROCLIMATOLOGICAL INPUT 111 A. BARDOSSY AND L. DUCKSTEIN 13.1
INTRODUCTION 111 13.2 INVESTIGATION OF HISTORICAL SERIES 112 13.3
NONSTATIONARY SCENARIOS 113 13.4 HYDROLOGICAL RISKS 116 13.5 AN EXAMPLE
OF ECOLOGICAL RISK ANALYSIS 118 13.6 CONCLUSIONS 120 14 FUZZY COMPROMISE
APPROACH TO WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY 122
MICHAEL J. BENDER 14.1 INTRODUCTION 122 14.2 FUZZY COMPROMISE APPROACH
123 14.3 EXAMPLES 127 14.4 CONCLUSIONS 130 CONTENTS XI 15 SYSTEM AND
COMPONENT UNCERTAINTIES IN WATER RESOURCES 133 BEN CHIE YEN 15.1
INTRODUCTION 133 15.2 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTIES 133 15.3 DIFFERENT
MEASURES OF UNCERTAINTIES 134 15.4 METHODS FOR UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS 134
15.5 REMARKS ON UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES 138 15.6 ANALYSIS OF
RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF UNCERTAINTIES 139 15.7 CONCLUDING REMARKS 139
16 MANAGING WATER QUALITY UNDER UNCERTAINTY: APPLICATION OF A NEW
STOCHASTIC BRANCH AND BOUND METHOD 143 B. J. LENCE AND A. RUSZCZYRISKI
18.1 INTRODUCTION 162 18.2 THE ROLE OF FORECASTING 167 19 QUANTIFYING
SYSTEM SUSTAINABILITY USING MULTIPLE RISK CRITERIA 169 DANIEL P. LOUCKS
19.1 INTRODUCTION 169 19.2 SUSTAINABILITY: SOME ISSUES AND CHALLENGES
169 19.3 DEFINING SUSTAINABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS 171 19.4
MEASURING SUSTAINABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS 172 19.5 FINAL
REMARKS 179 20 IRREVERSIBILITY AND SUSTAINABILITY IN WATER RESOURCES
SYSTEMS 181 H. P. NACHTNEBEL 16.1 INTRODUCTION 16.2 ELEMENTS OF A WATER
QUALITY MANAGEMENT MODEL 16.3 A PROBABILISTIC WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT
MODEL 16.4 THE STOCHASTIC BRANCH AND BOUND METHOD 16.5 APPLICATION OF
THE STOCHASTIC BRANCH AND BOUND METHOD FOR MANAGING BOD DISCHARGES IN
THE WILLAMETTE RIVER 16.6 CONCLUSIONS 17 UNCERTAINTY IN RISK ANALYSIS OF
WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE BIJAYA P. SHRESTHA 17.1
THREE-PHASE SYSTEM FRAMEWORK 17.2 RISK AND UNCERTAINTY 17.3
HYDROMETEOROIOGICAL INPUT AND CLIMATE CHANGE 17.4 MODELING AND
SIMULATION 17.5 ANALYSIS OF RESULTS 17.6 UNCERTAINTY OF RISK ANALYSIS
17.7 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 18 RISK AND RELIABILITY IN WATER
RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: THEORY AND PRACTICE URI SHAMIR 143 144 144 146 148
150 153 153 153 154 155 21 20.1 INTRODUCTION 20.2 ECONOMY-BASED
IRREVERSIBILITY CONSIDERATIONS 20.3 PHYSICALLY-BASED REVERSIBILITY
CONSIDERATIONS 20.4 REVERSIBILITY IN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 20.5
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS FUTURE OF RESERVOIRS AND THEIR MANAGEMENT
CRITERIA KUNIYOSHI TAKEUCHI 21.1 INTRODUCTION 21.2 CONTROLLING FACTORS
OF FUTURE NEEDS OF RESERVOIRS 21.3 RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION 21.4 OUTLOOK
OF RESERVOIRS IN THE FUTURE 21.5 RELIABLE AND ROBUST MANAGEMENT OF
RESERVOIRS 21.6 CONCLUSIONS 181 182 184 186 188 190 190 192 194 195 196
197 155 157 160 162 22 PERFORMANCE CRITERIA FOR MULTIUNIT RESERVOIR
OPERATION AND WATER ALLOCATION PROBLEMS 199 DARKO MILUTIN AND JANOS J.
BOGARDI 22.1 INTRODUCTION 199 22.2 CASE STUDY SYSTEM 200 XII 22.3
GENETIC ALGORITHM MODEL 22.4 PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 22.5 ANALYSES AND
RESULTS 22.6 DISCUSSION 23 RISK MANAGEMENT FOR HYDRAULIC SYSTEMS UNDER
HYDROLOGICAL LOADS 209 ERICH J. PLATE 201 203 204 206 23.1 INTRODUCTION
23.2 THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS 23.3 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION 23.4 RISK
ASSESSMENT 23.5 RISK MITIGATION 23.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS CONTENTS 209 211
212 212 219 219
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| spelling | Risk, reliability, uncertainty, and robustness of water resources systems ed. by Janos J. Bogardi ... 1. publ. Cambridge [u.a.] Cambridge Univ. Press 2002 XV, 220 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier International hydrology series Hydrology Statistical methods Congresses Uncertainty (Information theory) Congresses Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd rswk-swf Hydrologie (DE-588)4026309-5 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift 1996 Paris gnd-content Hydrologie (DE-588)4026309-5 s Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 s DE-604 Bogárdi, János 1946- Sonstige (DE-588)123670225 oth GBV Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009555955&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Risk, reliability, uncertainty, and robustness of water resources systems Hydrology Statistical methods Congresses Uncertainty (Information theory) Congresses Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd Hydrologie (DE-588)4026309-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4056995-0 (DE-588)4026309-5 (DE-588)1071861417 |
| title | Risk, reliability, uncertainty, and robustness of water resources systems |
| title_auth | Risk, reliability, uncertainty, and robustness of water resources systems |
| title_exact_search | Risk, reliability, uncertainty, and robustness of water resources systems |
| title_full | Risk, reliability, uncertainty, and robustness of water resources systems ed. by Janos J. Bogardi ... |
| title_fullStr | Risk, reliability, uncertainty, and robustness of water resources systems ed. by Janos J. Bogardi ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk, reliability, uncertainty, and robustness of water resources systems ed. by Janos J. Bogardi ... |
| title_short | Risk, reliability, uncertainty, and robustness of water resources systems |
| title_sort | risk reliability uncertainty and robustness of water resources systems |
| topic | Hydrology Statistical methods Congresses Uncertainty (Information theory) Congresses Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd Hydrologie (DE-588)4026309-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Hydrology Statistical methods Congresses Uncertainty (Information theory) Congresses Statistik Hydrologie Konferenzschrift 1996 Paris |
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