The next crisis?: direct and equity investment in developing countries
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
London [u.a.]
Zed Books
2001
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIV, 240 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 1856496694 1856496708 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Woodward, David |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The next crisis? |b direct and equity investment in developing countries |c David Woodward |
| 250 | |a 1. publ. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a London [u.a.] |b Zed Books |c 2001 | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Entwicklungsländer | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Capital movements |z Developing countries | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Investments, Foreign |z Developing countries | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804128586102210560 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface xi
List of Abbreviations xiii
1. Introduction 1
2. Capital Flows, Development and Debt Crises 5
North—South Capital Flows and Development 5
Capital Flows and Risk 7
A Historical Perspective 9
How Did the 1980s Debt Crisis Happen? 11
Conclusion 14
3. The Nature of Direct and Equity Investment and the Positive View 15
What Are Direct and Equity Investment? 15
Motivations for Direct and Equity Investment 16
Factors Influencing the Location of Direct Investment 18
Financing of Direct Investment 19
Production, Income and Expenditure 20
Profits, Capital Gains, Reinvestment and Remittances 21
Capital Flows and the Stock of Investment 24
The Positive View of Direct and Equity Investment 25
4. Recent Trends in Development Finance 27
The Changing Composition of Financial Flows 27
Implications of the New Paradigm 30
The Geographical Distribution of Direct and Equity Investment 32
The Sectoral Distribution of Direct Investment 37
Stocks of Direct and Equity Investment 40
The Importance of Direct Investment in Overall
Investment, Production and Exports 44
Conclusion: the Story so Far 48
V
Vi CONTENTS
5. Ignorance is Bliss (I): Data on the Stocks of Direct
and Equity Investment 50
The Significance of Data Problems 50
General Problems: Definitions, Data Collections and
Coverage 52
Major Statistical Sources 54
Cumulative Flow Estimates of FDI Stocks 59
6. Ignorance is Bliss (II): Data on Capital Flows, Profits and
FDI Related Trade 64
Capital Flows 64
Profits, Remittances and Reinvestment 69
Hidden Profits: Transfer Price Manipulation 72
FDI Related Trade 76
Conclusion: What Do We Know about Stocks of Inward FDI? 76
7. The Foreign Exchange Dimension: General Principles 78
Why Foreign Exchange Effects Matter 78
Types and Phases of Investment 79
Types of Foreign Exchange Effect 80
Investment in Existing Capacity 83
Investment in New Capacity 85
Disinvestment 86
The Production Phase: Direct Investment 87
An Alternative Perspective 89
The Production Phase: Equity Investment 91
8. Foreign Exchange Effects of Direct and Equity Investment
on the Host Country 93
Rates of Return on Direct and Equity Investment 93
Direct Investment by Purchase: Export Sector 94
Direct Investment by Purchase: Non Tradeable Sectors 100
Direct Investment by Purchase: Import Substitutes 103
Direct Investment through Construction of New Productive
Capacity 105
Direct Investment to Expand and Improve Existing
Productive Capacity 106
Portfolio Investment in Existing Shares 108
Portfolio Investment in New Share Issues 112
Conclusion 114
CONTENTS Vii
9. Other Effects at the National Level 117
Effects on Investment 117
Effects on Employment 123
The Development and Transfer of Technology 124
Politics and Economical Policy 126
10. The Global Dimension: Competition for Direct Investment
and Export Markets 128
Effects on Export Markets and Prices 128
Competition for Direct Investment 131
Official Encouragement 136
Conclusion 141
11. Net Transfers and the Build Up of Investment Stocks 143
Equity Investment 143
Direct Investment 144
Net Transfers and the Stock of FDI: Two Country Examples 150
12. Surges and Cycles 156
The 1990s Surge in Equity Investment 156
Herd like Behaviour 159
Temporary Factors Promoting Direct Investment 162
Procyclical Flows 164
Echoes of the Past 170
Conclusion 171
13. Was That It? (I): Direct Investment and Current Account
Deficits in the Mexican and Asian Financial Crises 173
The Mexican and Asian Crises 173
Profits and Imports of Capital Goods 175
Trade Effects of Foreign Affiliates Operations 181
FDI Financed Production and Export Prices 184
Conclusion 186
14. Was That It? (II): Capital Flows of FDI and Equity Investment
in the Mexican and Asian Crises 187
Speculative Bubbles 187
The Reversal of Portfolio Equity Investment Flows in
the Asian Crisis 188
The Reduction of Direct Investment Flows in the Asian Crisis 189
Direct and Equity Investment in the Mexican Crisis 191
VJM CONTENTS
Portfolio Equity Investment and Contagion 192
The Last Crisis and the Next 195
Conclusion 197
15. Conclusions and Policy Implications 199
Summary: an Accident Waiting to Happen? 199
The Next Crisis and the 1980s Debt Crisis 201
Where are we Now? 1979 and 1997 206
The Multilateral Agreement on Investment 208
The IMF and Capital Account Liberalisation 209
Dealing with Crises: Lessons from the Asian Experience 211
Conclusion 214
Appendices
I. Data Discrepancies and the Balance of Payments Effects
of Direct Investment in Thailand 216
II. Balance of Payments Effects of Direct Investment in
Malaysia: Data Limitations and Sensitivity to Assumptions 220
Notes 224
Bibliography 230
Index 233
• • • •
List of Boxes
8.1 Assumptions for Illustrative Figures on Net Foreign
Exchange Effects of Direct and Equity Investment 98
8.2 Export Orientation of Direct Investment 115
9.1 Capital Inflows, Sterilisation and Local Investment 119
11.1 Rates of Return, Net Resource Transfers and the
Stock of Inward Investment: a Numerical Illustration 146
List of Tables
4.1 Share of US Majority Owned Affiliates in Total Host Country
Exports, 1993 (%) 47
5.1 IMF and UNCTAD Estimates of Stocks of Inward FDI 56
5.2 Comparison of IMF Stock and Flow Data for Inward FDI ( $m) 57
5.3 Non Equity Financing and Cumulative Flow Estimates of
the Stock of Direct Investment 62
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES JX
6.1 The Global Discrepancy in Direct Investment Flow Data ( ) 66
6.2 The Global Discrepancy in Direct Investment Income Data ( ) 70
6.3 Shares of Intra Firm Trade in Exports and Imports of Foreign Affiliates
of US Firms, 1993 (%) 73
8.1 Net Foreign Exchange Effects of Direct Investment by Purchase in
Export Production 97
8.2 Net Foreign Exchange Effects of Direct Investment by Purchase
in Non Tradeable Production 101
8.3 Net Foreign Exchange Effects of Direct Investment by Purchase
in Import Substituting Production 104
8.4 Net Foreign Exchange Effects of Direct Investment through
Construction of New Productive Capacity 105
8.5 Net Foreign Exchange Effects of Direct Investment in Expansion and
Improvement of Existing Productive Capacity (Export Sector) 107
8.6 Illustrative Net Foreign Exchange Effects of Equity Investment in
Existing Shares 109
8.7 Net Foreign Exchange Effects of Portfolio Investment in New Share
Issues 113
8.8 Share of Exports in Total Output of US Majority Owned Affiliates,
1993 (%) 115
9.1 Direct and Equity Investment and Gross Fixed Capital Formation in
Mexico, 1990 93/4 121
9.2 Estimates of Additionality of Direct and Equity Investment in Mexico,
1990 93/4 121
11.1 Simulated Cost of FDI (Rate of Return 24% pa) 148
11.2 Simulated Cost of FDI (Rate of Return 30% pa) 149
13.1 Malaysia: FDI Related Balance of Payments Transactions, 1990 96 ( ) 182
14.1 Equity Investment Flows to Five Asian Countries, 1996 2000 ( ) 189
14.2 Direct Investment Flows to Five Asian Countries, 1996 2000 ( ) 190
14.3 Exposure of Major International Institutional Investors to Emerging
Equity Markets, mid 1997 and end 1998 193
14.4 Changes in Stock Exchange Indices between mid 1997 and
end 1998 (in US dollar terms) 194
AI.l Estimated Balance of Payments Effects of FDI in Thailand,
1990 96 ( ) 217
AI.2 Indices of FDI Flows, East Asia, 1990 96 (1990 = 100) 218
AIM Sensitivity of Estimated FDI Related Current Account Balance to
Changes in Assumptions (% of GDP) 221
List of Figures
3.1 Revenue and Expenditure of Enterprises 21
4.1a Net Financial Flows to Developing Countries, 1980 96 27
4.1b Net Financial Flows, 1980 96, by Destination 28
4.1c Net Financial Flows, 1980 96, by Source 28
X LIST OF FIGURES
4.1d Net Financial Flows, 1980 96, by Nature of Liability 29
4.2a Distribution of Portfolio Equity Investment, 1994—6 33
4.2b Population Shares of Major Equity Investment Recipients, 1995 33
4.3a Share of Equity Flows by Equity per Capita Category, 1996 34
4.3b Share of Population by Equity per Capita Category, 1996 34
4.3c Share of FDI Flows by Equity per Capita Category, 1996 35
4.3d Share of Commercial Lending by Equity per Capita Category, 1996 35
4.4 Net Financial Flows, 1996 (% of GDP, by FDI/Equity Category) 37
4.5 FDI Stocks by Region, 1980 96 40
4.6a Inward FDI Stocks, 1980 96: GDP less than 41
4.6b Inward FDI Stocks, 1980 96: GDP $l 20bn 42
4.6c Inward FDI Stocks, 1980 96: GDP more than 42
4.7a. FDI Flows as % of Total Investment, 1994 6: GDP less than 45
4.7b FDI Flows as % of Total Investment, 1994 6: GDP $l 20bn 45
4.7c FDI Flows as % of Total Investment, 1994 6: GDP more than 46
7.1 Foreign Exchange Effects of Direct and Equity Investment in New
Capacity: the Investment Phase 85
7.2 Foreign Exchange Effects of Direct Investment: the Production Phase 88
7.3 Foreign Exchange and Local Currency Components of Receipts,
Costs and Profits 89
11.1a Malaysia: FDI Flows and Profits, 1986 97 150
11.1b Malaysia: FDI Net Resource Transfers, 1986 97 151
11.1c Malaysia: FDI Stock, 1980 96 151
11.2a Swaziland: FDI Flows and Profits, 1986 97 154
11.2b Swaziland: FDI Net Resource Transfers, 1986 97 154
11.2c Swaziland: FDI Stock, 1980 96 155
12.1a FDI Flows, 1978 91: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico 165
12.1b FDI Flows, 1978 88; Chile, Uruguay and Venezuela 165
12.2a South Africa: FDI Flows and Profits, 1984 97 166
12.2b South Africa: FDI Net Resource Transfers, 1986 97 167
12.2c South Africa: FDI Stock, 1980 96 167
12.3a Gabon: FDI Flows and Profits, 1984 95 168
12.3b Gabon: FDI Net Resource Transfers, 1984 95 168
12.3c Gabon: FDI Stock, 1980 96 169
13.1 Korea: Current Account Balance, 1990 97 176
13.2 The Philippines: Current Account Balance, 1990 97 176
13.3a Indonesia: Current Account Balance, 1990 97; IMF 177
13.3b Indonesia: Current Account Balance, 1990 96; WB 177
13.4a Thailand: Current Account Balance, 1990 96; IMF 178
13.4b Thailand: Current Account Balance, 1990 96; DW 178
13.5 Malaysia: Current Account Balance, 1990 97 179
13.6 Mexico: Current Account Balance, 1990 97 179
|
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| spelling | Woodward, David Verfasser aut The next crisis? direct and equity investment in developing countries David Woodward 1. publ. London [u.a.] Zed Books 2001 XIV, 240 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Entwicklungsländer Capital movements Developing countries Investments, Foreign Developing countries Kapitalbewegung (DE-588)4132737-8 gnd rswk-swf Auslandsinvestition (DE-588)4003772-1 gnd rswk-swf Developing countries - Economic conditions - 20th century Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 gnd rswk-swf Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 g Auslandsinvestition (DE-588)4003772-1 s DE-604 Kapitalbewegung (DE-588)4132737-8 s HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009410016&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Woodward, David The next crisis? direct and equity investment in developing countries Entwicklungsländer Capital movements Developing countries Investments, Foreign Developing countries Kapitalbewegung (DE-588)4132737-8 gnd Auslandsinvestition (DE-588)4003772-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4132737-8 (DE-588)4003772-1 (DE-588)4014954-7 |
| title | The next crisis? direct and equity investment in developing countries |
| title_auth | The next crisis? direct and equity investment in developing countries |
| title_exact_search | The next crisis? direct and equity investment in developing countries |
| title_full | The next crisis? direct and equity investment in developing countries David Woodward |
| title_fullStr | The next crisis? direct and equity investment in developing countries David Woodward |
| title_full_unstemmed | The next crisis? direct and equity investment in developing countries David Woodward |
| title_short | The next crisis? |
| title_sort | the next crisis direct and equity investment in developing countries |
| title_sub | direct and equity investment in developing countries |
| topic | Entwicklungsländer Capital movements Developing countries Investments, Foreign Developing countries Kapitalbewegung (DE-588)4132737-8 gnd Auslandsinvestition (DE-588)4003772-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Entwicklungsländer Capital movements Developing countries Investments, Foreign Developing countries Kapitalbewegung Auslandsinvestition Developing countries - Economic conditions - 20th century |
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