Inflation, institutions, and preferences:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2000
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Zsfassung in niederländ. Sprache. - Nijmegen, Univ., Diss., 2000 |
| Beschreibung: | XII, 202 S. graph. Darst. |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Lelyveld, Iman Paul Pieter von |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Inflation, institutions, and preferences |c door Iman Paul Pieter van Lelyveld |
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| 300 | |a XII, 202 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
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| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804128298402316288 |
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| adam_text | Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements...................... v
Table of Contents v/i
List of Tables x
List of Figures xii
1 Introduction ]
1.1 Theoretical Background 3
1.2 The Structure of the Book................~................................................................................... 4
13 General Remarks.........................................™....................................... 7
2 Models of Inflationary Bias 9
2.1 Introduction 9
2.2 The Basic Model with Symmetric Information 11
23 Symmetric Information in Repeated Games IS
2.4 Asymmetric Information 18
2.4.1 Asymmetric Information with Regard to the Ability to Commit 19
2.4.2 Asymmetric Information with Regard to Preferences 23
2.5 An External Anchor: the ERM 28
2.5.1 Flexible Exchange Rates 30
2.5.2 Managed Exchange Rates 31
2.5.3 Fixed Exchange Rates 32
2.6 An Internal Anchor 34
2.6.1 A Contract with the Central Banker 35
2.6.2 The Inflation Averse Central Banker 38
2*7 Conclusions .•.¦¦•••¦¦•••.•••...¦¦•¦•••...¦¦¦.¦.«¦¦¦...¦.¦.¦...... 41
Appendix 2.A List of symbols 44
3 The Impact of Institutional Arrangements on Inflation 46
3.1 Introduction 46
3.2 Central Bank Independence, Exchange Rate Arrangements and Monetary Policy 47
33 Political Factors 49
3.3.1 Opportunistic Politicians 50
3.3.2 The Partisan Approach 52
3.3.3 Conclusion 53
3.4 Empirical Evidence: Specification and Variables 54
3.4.1 The Independence of the Central Bank 55
3.4.2 Exchange Rate Mechanisms 56
3.4.3 Political Variables 57
3.4.4 Concluding Remarks 58
% Fmniriral Resnlts 59
vii
Table of Contents
3.6 Conclusions 63
Appendix 3.A Correlation of Variables 65
4 Credibility of the ERM: Public Expectations 67
Hm Introduction ............¦•.......¦¦••...¦ 67
4.2 Expectations from Surveys 70
4.3 Current Data 72
4.3.1 Expectations of Inflation 73
4.3.2 Perceptions of Realised Inflation 78
4.3.3 Prelude to an Indicator of Shifts in Expectations 80
4.3.4 Definition of the Ratio Variable 82
4.4 Shifts in Expectations 83
4.5 Conclusions 91
Appendix 4.A Description of the Expectations Data 93
5 Inflation or Unemployment? Who Cares? 94
5.1 Introduction 94
5.2 Theoretical Background 95
5.3 Explanations for Relative Unemployment Aversion 98
5.4 Empirical Investigation 99
5.4.1 Description of the Data Set 100
5.4.2 The Variables 101
5.4.3 Estimation Method 105
5.4.4 Results and Analysis 107
5.5 Conclusions Ill
Appendix 5.A The Eurobarometer survey EB 5 113
6 Determinants of Individual Inflation Aversion Revisited. 11 7
6.1 Introduction 117
6.2 Relative Unemployment Aversion: Theory and Empirical Evidence 119
6.2.1 Relative Unemployment Aversion in the Theory 119
6.2.2 Empirical Evidence of Aversion 121
6.3 Empirical Investigation 123
6.3.1 Description of the Data Set and Definition of the Variables 123
6.3.2 Description of the Research Strategy 127
6.3.3 The Estimation Results for the Current Survey 128
6.4 Comparison with an Earlier Survey 131
6.5 Conclusions 134
Appendix 6.A The Eurobarometer Survey EB 48 136
7 A Culture of Inflation Aversion 141
7.1 Introduction 141
7.2 Theory 143
7.3 Empirical Implications 145
7.4 Broad Support 146
viii
Table of Contents
7.4.1 Measurement of Broad Inflation Aversion 147
7.4.2 Description of the Data Set and Definition of the Variables 148
7.4.3 Empirical Investigation 150
7.4.4 Conclusions 153
7.5 Narrow Support: the Financial Sector 154
7.5.1 Relevant Empirical Work: Effective Financial Sector Opposition 154
7.5.2 Relevant Empirical Work: Financial Sector Preferences 155
7.5.3 Description of the Data Set 158
7.5.4 Estimating Financial Sector Inflation Aversion 159
7.5.5 FSS, Central Bank Independence, and Inflation 163
7.6 Conclusions 167
Appendix 7.A Measuring Central Bank Independence 170
Appendix 7.B Description of Bank Profitability Data 174
8 Conclusions 177
Summary in Dutch (Nederlandstalige samenvatting) 187
References 193
ix
List of Tables
List of Tables
Table 2.1 Pay Off of the Policy Maker s Objective Function 13
Table 2.2 Pay Off of the Public s Objective Function 14
Table 2.3 Asymmetric Information Regarding the Ability to Commit and the Policy Maker s Pay Off. 23
Table 3.1 Models of Electoral Cycles 53
Table 3.2 The Variables and their Expected Signs 54
Table 3.3 Model Results on Pooled Time Series (1959 1990) 58
Table 3.4 Model Results after Step wise Deletion on Pooled Time Series (1959 1990) 62
Table 3.5 Institutional Influences in Individual Countries (1959 1990) 63
Table A.I Correlation between Variables (1959 1990) 65
Table 4.1 Types of Surveys 70
Table 4.2 Double Peakedness in Expectations and Actual Inflation 77
Table 4.3 Double Peakedness in Perceptions and Actual Inflation 80
Table 4.4 Correlation between Double Peakedness in Perceptions (topreii) and Expectations (topexpjt) SI
Table A.I Don t know Response in Realisations and Expectations ofInflation 93
Table 5.1 Marginal Effects from Logit Models 108
Table A.I Percentage Non Response per Question in EB 5 114
Table A. 2 Correlation between Variables (EB 5) 115
Table A. 3 Codes and Classes for the Original Questions 115
Table 6.1 Summary Statistics for RUA 124
Table 6.2 Unemployment and Expectations of Unemployment 125
Table 6.3 Summary Measures for Education and Age 126
Table 6.4 Results from Ordered Logit Estimation 129
Table 6.5 Comparing the Means of RUA 132
Table 6.6 Model for comparisons: Eurobarometer 5 (1976) 133
Table 6.7 Model for comparisons: Eurobarometer 48 (1997) 133
Table A.I General Summary Measures 137
Table A.2 Percentage Don t Know per Variable in EB 48 138
Table A. 3 Correlation between Variables (EB 48) 139
X
List of Tables
Table 7.1 Comparing the Means of RUA 149
Table 7.2 Legal Independence of the Central Bank 150
Table 7.3 Regression Results of the Weighed Estimation 153
Table 7.4 Financial Sector Sensitivity to Inflation (FSSjp) 161
Table 7.5 Testing Money Illusion for ROAE (FSS,ROAE) 52
Table 7.6 Influence of Inflation on True F01 166
Table 7.7 Influence of True FOI on Central Bank Independence 167
Table A.I Changes in Legal Independence (1990 1997) 172
Table A.2 Cukierman s LVAU Index 173
Table B.I Number of Observations per Year in each Country 174
Table B.2 Mean Values of Selected Aggregates (1988 1998) 175
Table B. 3 Key Profitability Indicators: Selected Groups and Aggregates (1988 1998) 175
Table B.4 Macro Economic and Institutional Data (1988 1998) 176
xi
List of Figures
List of Figures
Figure 1.1 Consumer Prices in the Long Run (1900 1998) /
Figure 2.2 Example of a Separating Equilibrium 27
Figure 2.2 Frequency Distribution of the Output Weight 40
Figure 4.1 Measurement Bias with Falling Inflation 74
Figure 4.2 Distribution of Expectations 75
Figure 4.3 Double Peakedness through Time: Expectations 76
Figure 4.4 Distribution of Perceptions 79
Figure 4.5 Double Peakedness through Time: Perceptions 79
Figure 4.6 Ratiowjt Distribution: Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, and Ireland (1985 1996)86
Figure 4.7 Ratiown Distribution: Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom
(1985 1996) 87
Figure 6.1 Inflation and Unemployment: 1976 versus 1997 118
Figure 7.1 Graphical Representations of Hypotheses 151
Figure 7.2 true FOI: Inflationvs true FO1 and true FO1vsIndependence 165
xii
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| spelling | Lelyveld, Iman Paul Pieter von Verfasser aut Inflation, institutions, and preferences door Iman Paul Pieter van Lelyveld 2000 XII, 202 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Zsfassung in niederländ. Sprache. - Nijmegen, Univ., Diss., 2000 Inflation / Institutionalismus / Präferenztheorie / Arbeitsmarkt / Geldpolitik / Finanzpolitik / Theorie (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009219782&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Lelyveld, Iman Paul Pieter von Inflation, institutions, and preferences Inflation / Institutionalismus / Präferenztheorie / Arbeitsmarkt / Geldpolitik / Finanzpolitik / Theorie |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Inflation, institutions, and preferences |
| title_auth | Inflation, institutions, and preferences |
| title_exact_search | Inflation, institutions, and preferences |
| title_full | Inflation, institutions, and preferences door Iman Paul Pieter van Lelyveld |
| title_fullStr | Inflation, institutions, and preferences door Iman Paul Pieter van Lelyveld |
| title_full_unstemmed | Inflation, institutions, and preferences door Iman Paul Pieter van Lelyveld |
| title_short | Inflation, institutions, and preferences |
| title_sort | inflation institutions and preferences |
| topic | Inflation / Institutionalismus / Präferenztheorie / Arbeitsmarkt / Geldpolitik / Finanzpolitik / Theorie |
| topic_facet | Inflation / Institutionalismus / Präferenztheorie / Arbeitsmarkt / Geldpolitik / Finanzpolitik / Theorie Hochschulschrift |
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