Business forecasting:
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Boston [u.a.]
Irwin McGrawHill
1998
|
| Ausgabe: | 3. ed. |
| Schriftenreihe: | The Irwin/McGraw-Hill series : Statistics
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVI, 490 S. Ill., graph. Darst. 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) |
| ISBN: | 0256239568 |
Internformat
MARC
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text |
CONTEND
1 Introduction to Business Forecasting 1
Introduction 1
Forecasting in Business Today 2
Forecasting in the Public and Not for Profit Sectors 6
Computer Use and Quantitative Forecasting 8
Subjective Forecasting Methods 9
New Product Forecasting 13
Two Simple Naive Models 15
Evaluating Forecasts 19
Using Multiple Forecasts 22
Sources of Data 23
Forecasting Domestic Car Sales 23
Overview of the Text 25
Comments from the Field 27
Integrative Case: Forecasting Sales of The Gap 28
About the SORITEC Software 33
Suggested Readings 40
Exercises 40
2 The Forecast Process, Data Considerations, and Model Selection 43
Introduction 43
The Forecast Process 43
Trend, Seasonal, and Cyclical Data Patterns 46
Data Patterns and Model Selection 49
A Statistical Review 50
Correlograms: An Alternative Method of Data Exploration 72
Domestic Car Sales: Exploratory Data Analysis and Model Selection 78
Comments from the Field 79
Integrative Case: The Gap 81
Using SORITEC for Exploratory Data Analysis and Basic Statistics 84
Suggested Readings 94
Exercises 94
Appendix 2.1 Data Availability in ECONDATA.SDB 97
xiv Contents
3 Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing 101
Moving Averages 102
Simple Exponential Smoothing 105
Holt's Exponential Smoothing 110
Winters' Exponential Smoothing 113
Adaptive Response Rate Single Exponential Smoothing 115
Using Single, Holt's, or ADRES Smoothing to Forecast a Seasonal Data Series 118
Summary 120
Forecasting Domestic Car Sales with Exponential Smoothing 121
Integrative Case: The Gap 124
Using SORITEC for Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Forecasts 127
Suggested Readings 137
Exercises 138
4 Introduction to Forecasting with Regression Methods 141
The Bivariate Regression Model 141
Visualization of Data: An Important Step in Regression Analysis 143
A Process for Regression Forecasting 145
Forecasting with a Simple Linear Trend 146
Using a Causal Regression Model to Forecast 150
A Retail Sales Forecast Based on Disposable Personal Income Per Capita 151
A Retail Sales Forecast Based on the Mortgage Rate 155
Statistical Evaluation of Regression Models 158
Using the Standard Error of the Regression 163
Heteroscedasticity 171
Cross Sectional Forecasting 172
Forecasting Domestic Car Sales with Bivariate Regression 174
Comments from the Field 177
Integrative Case: The Gap 178
Using SORITEC for Simple Regression Forecasts 181
Suggested Readings 191
Exercises 192
5 Forecasting with Multiple Regression 199
The Multiple Regression Model 199
Selecting Independent Variables 200
Forecasting with a Multiple Regression Model 201
Statistical Evaluation of Multiple Regression Models 208
Serial Correlation and the Omitted Variable Problem 214
Accounting for Seasonality in a Multiple Regression Model 219
Extensions of the Multiple Regression Model 225
Advice on Using Multiple Regression in Forecasting 227
Forecasting Domestic Car Sales with Multiple Regression 229
Contents
Comments from the Field 234
Integrative Case: The Gap 239
Using SORITEC for Multiple Regression Forecasts 242
Suggested Readings 252
Exercises 252
6 Time Series Decomposition 259
The Basic Time Series Decomposition Model 261
Deseasonalizing the Data and Finding Seasonal Indexes 261
Finding the Long Term Trend 267
Measuring the Cyclical Component 268
The Time Series Decomposition Forecast 274
Forecasting Domestic Car Sales by Using Time Series Decomposition 277
How to Evaluate and Improve a Forecasting Process 279
Forecasting Winter Daily Natural Gas Demand at Vermont Gas Systems 280
Integrative Case: The Gap 281
Using SORITEC for Time Series Decomposition Forecasts 286
Suggested Readings 292
Exercises 293
7 ARIMA (Box Jenkins) Type Forecasting Models 299
Introduction 299
The Philosophy of Box Jenkins 300
Moving Average Models 302
Autoregressive Models 307
Mixed Autoregressive and Moving Average Models 312
Stationarity 313
The Box Jenkins Identification Process 316
ARIMA: A Set of Numerical Examples 323
Forecasting Seasonal Time Series 335
Domestic Car Sales 338
Comments from the Field 343
Integrative Case: The Gap 345
Using SORITEC for ARIMA Analysis 351
Suggested Readings 366
Exercises 366
Appendix Critical Values of Chi Square 369
8 Combining Forecast Results 371
Introduction 371
Bias 372
An Example 373
What Kinds of Forecasts Can Be Combined? 377
XVi Contents
Considerations in Choosing the Weights for Combined Forecasts 378
Three Techniques for Selecting Weights When Combining Forecasts 382
Forecasting Domestic Car Sales with a Combined Forecast 387
Comments from the Field 392
Integrative Case: The Gap 394
Using SORITEC to Combine Forecasts 398
Suggested Readings 402
Exercises 403
9 Forecast Implementation 409
The Forecast Process 409
Choosing the Right Forecasting Techniques 415
Comments from the Field 420
Comments from the Field 421
Artificial Intelligence and Forecasting 422
Comments from the Field 424
Summary 424
Suggested Readings 425
Exercises 426
10 Computationally Intensive Statistics: The Bootstrap 427
Computationally Intensive Statistical Techniques 427
The Bootstrap 429
Steps in the Bootstrapping Process 431
Extensions of the Bootstrap Technique 434
Bootstrapping Time Series Data 439
Conclusion 444
Using SORITEC for Bootstrapping 445
Suggested Readings 449
Exercises 449
Appendix User's Guide to BE A Information 452
Index 486 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Wilson, J. Holton Keating, Barry |
| author_facet | Wilson, J. Holton Keating, Barry |
| author_role | aut aut |
| author_sort | Wilson, J. Holton |
| author_variant | j h w jh jhw b k bk |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV013425196 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HD30 |
| callnumber-raw | HD30.27 |
| callnumber-search | HD30.27 |
| callnumber-sort | HD 230.27 |
| callnumber-subject | HD - Industries, Land Use, Labor |
| classification_rvk | QH 233 QH 237 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)611242250 (DE-599)BVBBV013425196 |
| dewey-full | 658.4/0355 |
| dewey-hundreds | 600 - Technology (Applied sciences) |
| dewey-ones | 658 - General management |
| dewey-raw | 658.4/0355 |
| dewey-search | 658.4/0355 |
| dewey-sort | 3658.4 3355 |
| dewey-tens | 650 - Management and auxiliary services |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 3. ed. |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV013425196 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2025-02-07T11:01:08Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0256239568 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-009161659 |
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| physical | XVI, 490 S. Ill., graph. Darst. 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) |
| publishDate | 1998 |
| publishDateSearch | 1998 |
| publishDateSort | 1998 |
| publisher | Irwin McGrawHill |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | The Irwin/McGraw-Hill series : Statistics |
| spelling | Wilson, J. Holton Verfasser aut Business forecasting J. Holton Wilson ; Barry Keating 3. ed. Boston [u.a.] Irwin McGrawHill 1998 XVI, 490 S. Ill., graph. Darst. 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier The Irwin/McGraw-Hill series : Statistics Bedrijfsleven gtt Bedrijfsplanning gtt Prognoses gtt Business forecasting Management (DE-588)4037278-9 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmensplanung (DE-588)4078609-2 gnd rswk-swf Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf CD-ROM (DE-588)4139307-7 gnd rswk-swf Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd rswk-swf Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4123623-3 Lehrbuch gnd-content Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 s CD-ROM (DE-588)4139307-7 s DE-604 Unternehmensplanung (DE-588)4078609-2 s Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 s DE-188 Management (DE-588)4037278-9 s Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 s 1\p DE-604 Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s 2\p DE-604 Keating, Barry Verfasser aut HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009161659&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Wilson, J. Holton Keating, Barry Business forecasting Bedrijfsleven gtt Bedrijfsplanning gtt Prognoses gtt Business forecasting Management (DE-588)4037278-9 gnd Unternehmensplanung (DE-588)4078609-2 gnd Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd CD-ROM (DE-588)4139307-7 gnd Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4037278-9 (DE-588)4078609-2 (DE-588)4038971-6 (DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4358095-6 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4139307-7 (DE-588)4132280-0 (DE-588)4056995-0 (DE-588)4123623-3 |
| title | Business forecasting |
| title_auth | Business forecasting |
| title_exact_search | Business forecasting |
| title_full | Business forecasting J. Holton Wilson ; Barry Keating |
| title_fullStr | Business forecasting J. Holton Wilson ; Barry Keating |
| title_full_unstemmed | Business forecasting J. Holton Wilson ; Barry Keating |
| title_short | Business forecasting |
| title_sort | business forecasting |
| topic | Bedrijfsleven gtt Bedrijfsplanning gtt Prognoses gtt Business forecasting Management (DE-588)4037278-9 gnd Unternehmensplanung (DE-588)4078609-2 gnd Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd CD-ROM (DE-588)4139307-7 gnd Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bedrijfsleven Bedrijfsplanning Prognoses Business forecasting Management Unternehmensplanung Methode Wirtschaft Prognoseverfahren Prognose CD-ROM Ökonometrie Statistik Lehrbuch |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009161659&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT wilsonjholton businessforecasting AT keatingbarry businessforecasting |