The security dynamics of demographic factors:
As the 21st century unfolds, the dynamics of population growth, settlement patterns, and movement across borders are certain to have an effect on international security. Demographic shifts in political environments that are already tense as a result of territorial disputes, ethnic rivalries, ideolog...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Santa Monica
RAND
2000
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Population matters
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | As the 21st century unfolds, the dynamics of population growth, settlement patterns, and movement across borders are certain to have an effect on international security. Demographic shifts in political environments that are already tense as a result of territorial disputes, ethnic rivalries, ideological divides, or environmental stresses may provide just enough pressure to spark a violent conflict or perhaps even outright war. Demographic factors are thus worthy of analysis as potential contributors to armed conflict. The author lays out a general framework for looking at population developments through the prism of security issues, proffering some preliminary assessments as to which trends or factors might threaten U.S. interests around the world. Based on this analysis, there appear to be three broad areas of response: (1) A useful practice would be to create and place increased focus on demographically oriented indicators and warning measures. It will be important to understand how demographic pressures might be constraining the actions of key allies, increasing frictions between key regional powers, and/or laying the foundations for ethnic conflict. (2) Carefully targeted foreign aid may help some key friends and allies to better manage the effects of rapid population growth, allowing them to conserve resources and reform their political systems to take into account emerging demographic realities. (3) From the U.S Army's standpoint, the most important consequence of demographic trends is the increasing urbanization of conflict. In the short term, training will be important to obtain improvements in military operations on urbanized terrain (MOUT) capabilities. Over the longer term, research in new technologies will improve the ability of U.S. ground forces to operate in urban areas, for example, advanced intelligence-gathering platforms, better personnel protection, and a new generation of nonlethal weapons |
| Beschreibung: | XXIV, 52 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0833027808 |
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| 520 | 3 | |a As the 21st century unfolds, the dynamics of population growth, settlement patterns, and movement across borders are certain to have an effect on international security. Demographic shifts in political environments that are already tense as a result of territorial disputes, ethnic rivalries, ideological divides, or environmental stresses may provide just enough pressure to spark a violent conflict or perhaps even outright war. Demographic factors are thus worthy of analysis as potential contributors to armed conflict. The author lays out a general framework for looking at population developments through the prism of security issues, proffering some preliminary assessments as to which trends or factors might threaten U.S. interests around the world. Based on this analysis, there appear to be three broad areas of response: (1) A useful practice would be to create and place increased focus on demographically oriented indicators and warning measures. It will be important to understand how demographic pressures might be constraining the actions of key allies, increasing frictions between key regional powers, and/or laying the foundations for ethnic conflict. (2) Carefully targeted foreign aid may help some key friends and allies to better manage the effects of rapid population growth, allowing them to conserve resources and reform their political systems to take into account emerging demographic realities. (3) From the U.S | |
| 520 | |a Army's standpoint, the most important consequence of demographic trends is the increasing urbanization of conflict. In the short term, training will be important to obtain improvements in military operations on urbanized terrain (MOUT) capabilities. Over the longer term, research in new technologies will improve the ability of U.S. ground forces to operate in urban areas, for example, advanced intelligence-gathering platforms, better personnel protection, and a new generation of nonlethal weapons | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804128090659487744 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
Preface iii
Figures vii
Tables ix
Summary xi
Acknowledgments xxiii
Chapter One
INTRODUCTION 1
What Do We Mean By Demography ? 3
Chapter Two
THE EVOLVING VIEW OF POPULATION AS A NATIONAL
SECURITY VARIABLE 5
Chapter Three
KEY DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 11
Bifurcation of High Fertility Countries 11
The Emergence of Chronic Low Fertility in Much of the
Developed World 13
Increasing Urbanization in the Developing World 15
Chapter Four
THE SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC
FACTORS 19
Demographics and the Nature of Future Conflict 19
The Increasingly Urban Context of Future Conflict .... 19
New Strategic Instruments of Conflict 21
Demographics and the Sources of Military Power 26
V
vi The Security Dynamics of Demographic Factors
Low Growth States 27
High Growth States 28
Demographics and the Sources of Conflict 29
Demographics and Regional Security 30
Demographics and Domestic Politics 39
Chapter Five
IMPUCATIONSFORU.S.POUCY 49
Review 49
Research/Analytical Responses 50
Development Assistance 51
Focused Military Preparedness 52
FIGURES
1. Developing Countries Have Younger Populations
Than Do Developed Countries 14
2. Developed States Have Seen Long Term Fertility
Declines 15
3. Urbanization Is Proceeding Rapidly in the Developing
World 16
vii
¦ ~ ~ TABLES
1 Several Pivotal States in the Developing World Are
Experiencing High Rates of Population Growth 2. Demographic Pressures Create Vulnerabilities to
Water Cutoff by Outside Powers 3. The Changing Bosnian Population Mix ix
|
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| id | DE-604.BV013318859 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:43:43Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0833027808 |
| language | English |
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| physical | XXIV, 52 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2000 |
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| series2 | Population matters |
| spelling | Nichiporuk, Brian Verfasser aut The security dynamics of demographic factors Brian Nichiporuk Santa Monica RAND 2000 XXIV, 52 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Population matters As the 21st century unfolds, the dynamics of population growth, settlement patterns, and movement across borders are certain to have an effect on international security. Demographic shifts in political environments that are already tense as a result of territorial disputes, ethnic rivalries, ideological divides, or environmental stresses may provide just enough pressure to spark a violent conflict or perhaps even outright war. Demographic factors are thus worthy of analysis as potential contributors to armed conflict. The author lays out a general framework for looking at population developments through the prism of security issues, proffering some preliminary assessments as to which trends or factors might threaten U.S. interests around the world. Based on this analysis, there appear to be three broad areas of response: (1) A useful practice would be to create and place increased focus on demographically oriented indicators and warning measures. It will be important to understand how demographic pressures might be constraining the actions of key allies, increasing frictions between key regional powers, and/or laying the foundations for ethnic conflict. (2) Carefully targeted foreign aid may help some key friends and allies to better manage the effects of rapid population growth, allowing them to conserve resources and reform their political systems to take into account emerging demographic realities. (3) From the U.S Army's standpoint, the most important consequence of demographic trends is the increasing urbanization of conflict. In the short term, training will be important to obtain improvements in military operations on urbanized terrain (MOUT) capabilities. Over the longer term, research in new technologies will improve the ability of U.S. ground forces to operate in urban areas, for example, advanced intelligence-gathering platforms, better personnel protection, and a new generation of nonlethal weapons Demografie gtt Démographie - États-Unis Nationale veiligheid gtt Sécurité nationale - États-Unis Demography United States National security United States Sicherheitspolitik (DE-588)4116489-1 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf USA Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Sicherheitspolitik (DE-588)4116489-1 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009081837&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Nichiporuk, Brian The security dynamics of demographic factors Demografie gtt Démographie - États-Unis Nationale veiligheid gtt Sécurité nationale - États-Unis Demography United States National security United States Sicherheitspolitik (DE-588)4116489-1 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4116489-1 (DE-588)4006292-2 |
| title | The security dynamics of demographic factors |
| title_auth | The security dynamics of demographic factors |
| title_exact_search | The security dynamics of demographic factors |
| title_full | The security dynamics of demographic factors Brian Nichiporuk |
| title_fullStr | The security dynamics of demographic factors Brian Nichiporuk |
| title_full_unstemmed | The security dynamics of demographic factors Brian Nichiporuk |
| title_short | The security dynamics of demographic factors |
| title_sort | the security dynamics of demographic factors |
| topic | Demografie gtt Démographie - États-Unis Nationale veiligheid gtt Sécurité nationale - États-Unis Demography United States National security United States Sicherheitspolitik (DE-588)4116489-1 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Demografie Démographie - États-Unis Nationale veiligheid Sécurité nationale - États-Unis Demography United States National security United States Sicherheitspolitik Bevölkerungsentwicklung USA |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009081837&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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