Herbivore dynamics in the Mara Area of Kenya: the effects of land use change, climate, and predators
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Aachen
Shaker
2000
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Berichte aus der Agrarwissenschaft
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Zugl.: Berlin, Humboldt.-Univ., Diss., 1999 |
| Beschreibung: | VII, 282 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 3826572440 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Herbivore dynamics in the Mara Area of Kenya |b the effects of land use change, climate, and predators |c Joseph O. Ogutu |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Mathematisches Modell | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Ökologie | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Animal populations |z Kenya |z Masai Mara National Reserve Region |x Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Herbivores |x Ecology |z Kenya |z Masai Mara National Reserve Region |x Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Land use, Rural |z Kenya |z Masai Mara National Reserve Region |x Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Wildlife management |z Kenya |z Masai Mara National Reserve Region |x Mathematical models | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804127841906851840 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Herbivore dynamics in the Mara Area of Kenya
Autor: Ogutu, Joseph O.
Jahr: 2000
Contents
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Objectives 5
2. Literature Review 7
2.1 Significant historical changes in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem 7
2.1.1 Changes in the Masai Mara Reserve 8
2.1.2 Land use changes and associated conflicts in the group ranches 8
2.2 Dynamics of herbivore abundance and population composition 11
2.3 The effect of rainfall on ecosystem function and dynamics 12
2.4 Model building for conservation and wildlife management 12
2.4.1 Types of models 14
2.4.2 Optimisation models 15
2.4.3 Simulation models 17
2.4.4 Econometric models 18
2.4.5 Predictive, qualitative models or expert systems 18
2.4.6 Analytical or mathematical models 19
2.4.7 The use of simulation in systems dynamics and systems thinking 20
2.5 Population models in wildlife conservation and management 23
2.6 Models of predator-prey relationships 24
2.7 Models of primary production 25
2.7.1 The relationship between rainfall and herbage production 26
2.7.2 Models of herbage production 28
2.7.3 Models of tree and shrub production 28
3. Methods 29
3.1 Stud; area 29
3.1.1 The herbivores 29
3.1.2 The vegetation and soils 32
3.13 Rainfall 33
3.2 Data collection 34
3.2.1 Monthly rainfall 34
3.2.2 Monthly counts of herbivores in the Masai Mara reserve 35
3.2.3 Ageing and sexing animals 35
3.2.4 Age classes utilised to group animals 36
3.2.5 Estimation of age ratios 36
3.2.6 Long-term herbivore population trends 37
3.2.7 Human population and land use/cover changes 38
4. Statistical Analysis 40
4.0 Analysis of animal counts, age ratios, and rainfall 41
4.1 Reasons for selecting the random coefficient model 44
4.2 The general linear mixed model 44
4.3 The random coefficient regression model 47
4.3.1 A simple example of a linear random coefficient model 49
4.4 Covariance structures 50
4.4.1 Selecting the mean structure and covariance structure 52
4.4.2 Selecting non-nested covariance structures 57
4.4.3 Selecting the random effects residual covariance structure 58
4.5 Model fitting and model assumptions 63
4.5.1 Model assumptions 63
4.5.2 Fitting covariance structures 65
4.5.3 Selecting the form of the rainfall part, or slopes in the models 73
4.5.4 Models with zero slopes include no rainfall effect 73
4.5.5 Models with common slopes include the rainfall main effect 74
4.5.6 Models with unequal slopes include simple effects of rainfall 74
4.5.7 The adjusted or least squares means 75
4.5.8 Multiple comparisons of adjusted means 77
4.5.9 Polynomial trend analysis of monthly counts and age ratios 79
4.6 Analysis of long-term herbivore population trends 80
4.6.1 The influence of rainfall 85
4.7 Demographic analysis 85
HI
5. Model Development 87
5.1 The process of model building 87
5.2 Conceptual model formulation 87
5.2.1 Model structure and behaviour 87
5.2.2 Stocks and flows 88
5.2.3 Convenors 88
5.2.4 Connectors 89
5.2.5 Infrastructures 89
5.2.6 Feedback loops 89
5.3 Diagrammatic representation of system components 90
5.4 Specifying quantitative relationships between system components 90
5.5 Parameterisation, validation, and sensitivity analysis 90
5.6 Framework for the Model 90
5.6.1 Spatial and temporal resolution 90
5.7 The submodels 91
5.7.1 Land use submodel 91
5.7.2 Tree and shrub submode 92
5.7.3 Grass submodel 94
5.7.4 Herbivore submodel 96
5.7.5 Predator submodel 99
6. Results 101
6.1 Models selected for monthly herbivore counts, age ratios 101
and rainfal
6.2 Interpreting variance components and tests of fixed effects 108
6.2.1 Estimates and significance tests of variance components 108
6.2.2 Estimates and significance tests of fixed effects 110
6.3 Rainfall 111
6.4 Monthly dynamics of herbivore abundance and age ratios 116
6.4.1 Topi abundance 116
6.4.1.1 The influence of random effects 116
6.4.1.2 The influence of fixed effects 121
IV
6.4.1.3 Monthly distribution of topi abundance 123
6.4.2. Topi age ratios 126
6.4.2.1 The influence of random effects 126
6.4.2.2 The influence of fixed effects 129
6.4.2.3 The monthly distribution of topi age ratios 130
6.4.3 Warthog abundance 132
6.4.3.1 The influence of random effects 132
6.4.3.2 The influence of fixed effects 133
6.4.3.3 The monthly distribution of warthog abundance 135
6.4.4 Warthog age ratios 137
6.4.4.1 The influence of random effects 137
6.4.4.2 The influence of fixed effects 139
6.4.4.3 The monthly distribution of warthog age ratios 140
6.4.5 Hartebeest abundance 142
6.4.5.1 The influence of random effects 142
6.4.5.2 The influence of fixed effects 144
6.4.5.3 The monthly distribution of hartebeest abundance 145
6.4.6 Hartebeest age ratios 146
6.4.6.1 The influence of random effects 146
6.4.6.2 The influence of Fixed effects 147
6.4.6.3 The monthly distribution of hartebeest age ratio 148
6.4.7 Age structured impala abundance 150
6.4.7.1 The influence of random effects 150
6.4.7.2 The influence of fixed effects 153
6.4.7.3 The monthly distribution of irnpala abundance 153
6.4.8 Age and sex structured impala abundance 155
6.4.8.1 The influence of random effects 155
6.4.8.2 The influence of fixed effects 157
6.4.9 Impala age ratios 161
6.4.9.1 The influence of random effects 162
6.4.9.2 The influence of fixed effects 163
6.4.10 Zebra abundance 164
6.4.10.1 The influence of random effects 164
6.4.10.2 The influence of fixed effects 166
6.4.10.3 The monthly distribution of zebra abundance 167
6.4.11 Zebra age ratios 169
6.4.11.1 The influence of random effects 169
6.4.11.2 The influence of fixed effects 172
6.4.11.3 The monthly distribution of zebra age ratios 173
6.4.12 Giraffe abundance 174
6.4.12.1 The influence of random effects 174
6.4.12.2 The influence of fixed effects 175
6.4.12.3 The monthly distribution of giraffe abundance 176
6.4.13 Giraffe age ratios 178
6.4.13.1 The influence of random effects 178
6.4.13.2 The influence of fixed effects 178
6.4.14 Ostrich abundance 180
154.IS Ostrich age ratios 183
6.4.16 Age structured waterbuck abundance 185
6.4.16.1 The influence of random effects 185
6.4.16.2 The influence of fixed effects 186
6.4.16.3 The monthly distribution of waterbuck abundance 188
6.4.17 Age and sex structured waterbuck abundance 190
6.4.17.1 The influence of random effects 191
6.4.17.2 The influence of fixed effects 191
6.4.18 Waterbuck age ratios 196
6.4.18.1 The influence of random effects 196
6.4.18.2 The influence of fixed effects 197
6.5 Long-term herbivore population trends 201
6.5.1 Resident grazers 201
6.5.2 Migratory grazers 204
6.5.3 Mixed grazers/browsers 206
6.5.4 Pure browsers 209
6.5.5 Domestic livestock 209
6.5.6 The influence of rainfall 212
6.6 Simulation model predictions and scenarios 212
6.6.1 Scenario 1. Present actions 212
6.6.2 Scenario 2. Reduced rainfall 214
VI
6.6.3 Scenarios 3 and 4. Rinderpest epidemic/incn
6.6.4 Scenario 5. Human population decline
7. Discussion
7.1 Monthly herbivore dynamics
7.1.1 Topi
7.1.1.1 Topi abundance
7.1.1.2 Topi age ratios
7.1.2 Warthog
7.1.2.1 Warthog abundance
7.1.2.2 Warthog age ratios
7.1.3 Hartebeest
7.1.3.1 Hartebeest abundance
7.1.3.2 Hartebeest age ratios
7.1.4 Impala
7.1.4.1 Age structured impala abundance
7.1.4.2 Age and sex structured impala abundance
7.1.4.3 Impala age ratios
7.1.5 Zebra
7.1.5.1 Zebra abundance
7.1.5.2 Zebra age ratios
7.1.6 Giraffe
7.1.6.1 Giraffe abundance
7.1.6.2 Giraffe age ratios
7.1.7 waterbuck
7.1.7.1 Age structured waterbuck abundance
7.1.7.2 Age and sex structured waterbuck abundance
7.1.7.3 Waterbuck age ratios
7.1.8 Ostrich
7.1.8.1 Ostrich abundance
7.1.8.2 Ostrich age ratios
7.2 Long-term herbivore population trends
7.2.1 Resident grazers
214
214
216
216
216
216
216
217
217
218
218
218
219
219
219
220
220
221
221
221
222
222
222
223
223
224
224
225
225
225
226
226
7.2.2 Migratory grazers 227
7.2.3 Mixed grazers/ browsers 228
7.2.4 Pure browsers 229
7.2.5 Domestic livestock 229
7.3 Seasonal dynamics of herbivore abundance and recruitment 229
7.3.1 Small scale patterns 229
7.3.2 Extensive patterns 231
7.3.3 Apparent reproductive and recruitment dynamics 232
7.4 Factors influencing long-term herbivore population trends 233
7.4.1 Rainfall and food availability 233
7.4.2 Predation 234
7.4.3 Competition 235
7.4.4 Fire and diseases 235
7.4.5 Human population growth, poaching, and land use change 236
7.5 Simulation analysis 236
8. Conclusions and Extensions 238
8.1 Conclusions 238
8.2 Extensions and recommendations 240
9. References 243
Appendix A Estimates of herbivore age ratios and the associated confidence limits 2S8
Appendix B Simulation Model Mara 261
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| spelling | Ogutu, Joseph O. Verfasser (DE-588)141290676 aut Herbivore dynamics in the Mara Area of Kenya the effects of land use change, climate, and predators Joseph O. Ogutu Aachen Shaker 2000 VII, 282 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Berichte aus der Agrarwissenschaft Zugl.: Berlin, Humboldt.-Univ., Diss., 1999 Mathematisches Modell Ökologie Animal populations Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Herbivores Ecology Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Land use, Rural Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Wildlife management Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Ökosystem (DE-588)4043216-6 gnd rswk-swf Masai-Mara-Wildreservat (DE-588)4193009-5 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Masai-Mara-Wildreservat (DE-588)4193009-5 g Ökosystem (DE-588)4043216-6 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008954059&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Ogutu, Joseph O. Herbivore dynamics in the Mara Area of Kenya the effects of land use change, climate, and predators Mathematisches Modell Ökologie Animal populations Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Herbivores Ecology Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Land use, Rural Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Wildlife management Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Ökosystem (DE-588)4043216-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4043216-6 (DE-588)4193009-5 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Herbivore dynamics in the Mara Area of Kenya the effects of land use change, climate, and predators |
| title_auth | Herbivore dynamics in the Mara Area of Kenya the effects of land use change, climate, and predators |
| title_exact_search | Herbivore dynamics in the Mara Area of Kenya the effects of land use change, climate, and predators |
| title_full | Herbivore dynamics in the Mara Area of Kenya the effects of land use change, climate, and predators Joseph O. Ogutu |
| title_fullStr | Herbivore dynamics in the Mara Area of Kenya the effects of land use change, climate, and predators Joseph O. Ogutu |
| title_full_unstemmed | Herbivore dynamics in the Mara Area of Kenya the effects of land use change, climate, and predators Joseph O. Ogutu |
| title_short | Herbivore dynamics in the Mara Area of Kenya |
| title_sort | herbivore dynamics in the mara area of kenya the effects of land use change climate and predators |
| title_sub | the effects of land use change, climate, and predators |
| topic | Mathematisches Modell Ökologie Animal populations Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Herbivores Ecology Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Land use, Rural Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Wildlife management Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Ökosystem (DE-588)4043216-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Mathematisches Modell Ökologie Animal populations Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Herbivores Ecology Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Land use, Rural Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Wildlife management Kenya Masai Mara National Reserve Region Mathematical models Ökosystem Masai-Mara-Wildreservat Hochschulschrift |
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