Risk assessment and decision making in business and industry: a practical guide
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Boca Raton u.a.
CRC Pr.
1999
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | 239 S.: Ill. |
| ISBN: | 0849302684 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Koller, Glenn |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Risk assessment and decision making in business and industry |b a practical guide |c Glenn Koller |
| 264 | 1 | |a Boca Raton u.a. |b CRC Pr. |c 1999 | |
| 300 | |a 239 S.: Ill. | ||
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| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Decision making | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Entscheidungsprozess | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risikomanagement | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risk assessment | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Unternehmen | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Entscheidungsfindung | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risikoanalyse | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Risikoanalyse |2 swd | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Unternehmen : Entscheidung |2 swd | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risk assessment | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Decision making | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Chapter 1
Risk Assessment Advantages 1
Why Risk Assessment? 1
Consider Range of Possibilities 2
Establish Probabilities 3
Communication with Customers and the Public 3
Probabilistic Branching 4
Relationships Between Variables 5
Linking of Disciplines 6
Checklist — Don t Take It for Granted 7
Updating Estimates 8
To What Types of Problems Can Risk Assessment Be Applied? 9
Chapter 2
Risk Assessment — A Process 11
Risk Assessment — The Process 11
The Time It Takes to Do It Right and When to Get Started 14
Time for Preparation of the Organization — Different People See It
Differently 14
What to Provide 16
Chapter 3
Consistency — The Key to Risk Assessment 21
Biggest Bang From Assessing Multiple Opportunities 21
Type Consensus Models 22
Common Measure 25
Risk Assessment Vision 26
Sometimes Better to Be Consistent Than to Be Right 28
Locking the Model 31
Users Will Game the System — The Risk Police 32
Databasing Inputs and Outputs 33
Chapter 4
Communication 35
Communication — Just One Shot 35
Communication — Why Bother? 36
Know Your Clients 36
Focus on Impact and Mitigation 37
Diplomatically Handle Winners and Losers 38
Communicating the Value of Risk Assessment 38
Chapter 5
Building a Consensus Model 41
What Is the Question? — Most of the Time and Effort 41
Consensus Model 42
Group Dynamics 44
Write It Down 45
Sort It Out 46
Group Dynamics Again 47
Units 47
Overarching Categories 49
Chapter 6
Build a Contributing Factor Diagram 51
The Contributing Factor Diagram — Getting Started 51
Identify and Define Variables 56
Ask the Right Question 57
Double Dipping 58
Double Dipping and Counting the Chickens 59
Fixing the Double Dipping and Counting Chickens Problem 59
CFD Building Example 60
Short List of Hints for Building a CFD 65
Chapter 7
Education — Critical at Three Levels 67
Education for Management 67
Introductory Class for Risk Model Builders 69
Advanced Training for Risk Model Builders 70
Organizational Attitude and Training Centers 71
Time Demands and Organization of the Education Effort 72
Chapter 8
Risk Assessment Technologies 77
Different Approaches 77
Discriminant Function Analysis 77
Bayesian Analysis 79
Decision Trees 82
Factor Analysis 87
Neural Nets 89 j
Chapter 9
Monte Carlo Analysis 91
A Bit of History 91
For What Is It Good? 92
Simple Monte Carlo Example 92
How Many Random Comparisons Are Enough? 94
Output From Monte Carlo Analysis — The Frequency and Cumulative
Frequency Plots 95
Interpreting Cumulative Frequency Plots 100
Combining Monte Carlo Output Curves 104
Chapter 10
Decisions and Distributions 105
Decisions 105
Just What Is a Distribution? 106
Distributions — How to Approach Them 110
Symmetrical Distributions 112
Skewed Distributions 114
Spike Distributions 115
Flat Distributions 116
Truncated Distributions 117
Discrete Distributions 119
Bimodal Distributions 120
Reading Data From a File 121
Peakedness 123
Triangular Distributions 125
Specific Distribution Types 126
Chapter 11
Chance of Failure 129
Chance of Failure — What Is It? 129
Failure of a Risk Component 130
Chance of Failure That Does Not Affect an Input Distribution 133
Incorporating Chance of Failure in a Plot of Cumulative Frequency 134
Another Reason for Chance of Failure 136
The Inserting 0s Work Around 138
Chance of Failure and Multiple Output Variables 139
Chapter 12
Time Series Analysis and Dependence 141
Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Dependence 141
Time Series Analysis — Why? 141
Time Series Analysis — How? 142
Tune Scries Analysis — Results 143
Time Series Analysis That s Not 144
Some Tilings to Consider 144
Dependence — What Is It? 147
Independent and Dependent Variables 148
Degree of Dependence 148
Multiple Dependencies and Circular Dependence 152
Effect of Dependence on Monte Carlo Output 153
Dependence — It s Ubiquitous 153
Chapter 13
Risk Weighted Values and Sensitivity Analysis 159
Introduction to Risk Weighted Values and Sensitivity Analysis 159
Risk Weighted Values — Why? 159
Risk Weighted Values — How? 161
The Net Risk Weighted Value 164
The Economic Risk Weighted Resource (ERWR) Value 165
Risk Weighted Values — The Answer 166
Sensitivity Analysis — Why? 168
Sensitivity Analysis — How? 170
Sensitivity Analysis — Results 172
Chapter 14
Risk Assessment Examples 175
Introduction 175
Qualitative Model 175
Semi Quantitative Model 177
Mini Time Series Model 180
Fate Transport (Process/Health) Model 187
Decision Tree Conversion 192
Legal Model 198
Comprehensive Risk Assessment Example 204
Selected Readings 231
Subject Index 235
j
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| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Koller, Glenn |
| author_facet | Koller, Glenn |
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| author_sort | Koller, Glenn |
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| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV013020654 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HD61 |
| callnumber-raw | HD61.K63 1999 |
| callnumber-search | HD61.K63 1999 |
| callnumber-sort | HD 261 K63 41999 |
| callnumber-subject | HD - Industries, Land Use, Labor |
| classification_rvk | QC 020 QH 240 QP 327 |
| classification_tum | MAT 624f |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)245985862 (DE-599)BVBBV013020654 |
| dewey-full | 658.15/5 658.15/521 |
| dewey-hundreds | 600 - Technology (Applied sciences) |
| dewey-ones | 658 - General management |
| dewey-raw | 658.15/5 658.15/5 21 |
| dewey-search | 658.15/5 658.15/5 21 |
| dewey-sort | 3658.15 15 |
| dewey-tens | 650 - Management and auxiliary services |
| discipline | Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0849302684 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Koller, Glenn Verfasser aut Risk assessment and decision making in business and industry a practical guide Glenn Koller Boca Raton u.a. CRC Pr. 1999 239 S.: Ill. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Decision making Entscheidungsprozess Risikomanagement Risk assessment Unternehmen Entscheidungsfindung Risikoanalyse Risikoanalyse swd Unternehmen : Entscheidung swd Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd rswk-swf Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd rswk-swf Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd rswk-swf Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 s DE-604 Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 s Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 s Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 s HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008871230&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Koller, Glenn Risk assessment and decision making in business and industry a practical guide Decision making Entscheidungsprozess Risikomanagement Risk assessment Unternehmen Entscheidungsfindung Risikoanalyse Risikoanalyse swd Unternehmen : Entscheidung swd Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4144220-9 (DE-588)4113446-1 (DE-588)4121590-4 (DE-588)4137042-9 |
| title | Risk assessment and decision making in business and industry a practical guide |
| title_auth | Risk assessment and decision making in business and industry a practical guide |
| title_exact_search | Risk assessment and decision making in business and industry a practical guide |
| title_full | Risk assessment and decision making in business and industry a practical guide Glenn Koller |
| title_fullStr | Risk assessment and decision making in business and industry a practical guide Glenn Koller |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk assessment and decision making in business and industry a practical guide Glenn Koller |
| title_short | Risk assessment and decision making in business and industry |
| title_sort | risk assessment and decision making in business and industry a practical guide |
| title_sub | a practical guide |
| topic | Decision making Entscheidungsprozess Risikomanagement Risk assessment Unternehmen Entscheidungsfindung Risikoanalyse Risikoanalyse swd Unternehmen : Entscheidung swd Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Decision making Entscheidungsprozess Risikomanagement Risk assessment Unternehmen Entscheidungsfindung Risikoanalyse Unternehmen : Entscheidung Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008871230&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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