Testing for structural breaks in the evaluation of programs:
A standard methodology in program evaluation is to use time series variation to compare pre- and post-program outcomes. However, when the timing of a break in a statistical relationship can be determined only by looking at the data, then the usual distribution of the test statistic which assumes exo...
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, Mass.
1999
|
| Schriftenreihe: | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series
7226 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | A standard methodology in program evaluation is to use time series variation to compare pre- and post-program outcomes. However, when the timing of a break in a statistical relationship can be determined only by looking at the data, then the usual distribution of the test statistic which assumes exogenous timing of the break is no longer valid. Tests for parameter instability provide a flexible framework for testing a range of hypotheses commonly posed in program evaluation. These tests help pinpoint the timing of maximal break and provide a valid test of statistical significance. These tests are particularly useful when the start date of the intervention and any effect is unclear and possibly endogenous due to implementation lags. A test of parameter instability is applied to the evaluation of the Boston Gun Project, a comprehensive effort to reduce youth homicide in Boston in the mid 1990s. The dynamics of gang violence meant that no parts of the city could be used as reasonable comparison sites, and thus time series analysis is the only feasible means of evaluating the program impact. The statistical procedure identifies a statistically significant discontinuity in youth homicide incidents shortly after the intervention was unveiled. The intervention was associated with about a 60 percent decline in youth homicide. |
| Beschreibung: | 18 S. graph. Darst. |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000 cb4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV012730263 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 00000000000000.0 | ||
| 007 | t | ||
| 008 | 990824s1999 xxud||| |||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)42619503 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV012730263 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e rakddb | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 044 | |a xxu |c XD-US | ||
| 049 | |a DE-521 | ||
| 050 | 0 | |a HD4802 | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Testing for structural breaks in the evaluation of programs |c Anne Morrison Piehl ... |
| 264 | 1 | |a Cambridge, Mass. |c 1999 | |
| 300 | |a 18 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |v 7226 | |
| 520 | |a A standard methodology in program evaluation is to use time series variation to compare pre- and post-program outcomes. However, when the timing of a break in a statistical relationship can be determined only by looking at the data, then the usual distribution of the test statistic which assumes exogenous timing of the break is no longer valid. Tests for parameter instability provide a flexible framework for testing a range of hypotheses commonly posed in program evaluation. These tests help pinpoint the timing of maximal break and provide a valid test of statistical significance. These tests are particularly useful when the start date of the intervention and any effect is unclear and possibly endogenous due to implementation lags. A test of parameter instability is applied to the evaluation of the Boston Gun Project, a comprehensive effort to reduce youth homicide in Boston in the mid 1990s. The dynamics of gang violence meant that no parts of the city could be used as reasonable comparison sites, and thus time series analysis is the only feasible means of evaluating the program impact. The statistical procedure identifies a statistically significant discontinuity in youth homicide incidents shortly after the intervention was unveiled. The intervention was associated with about a 60 percent decline in youth homicide. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Evaluation research (Social action programs) |x Statistical methods | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Piehl, Anne Morrison |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Erscheint auch als |n Online-Ausgabe |
| 830 | 0 | |a National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |v 7226 |w (DE-604)BV002801238 |9 7226 | |
| 856 | 4 | 1 | |u http://papers.nber.org/papers/w7226.pdf |z kostenfrei |3 Volltext |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-008655432 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804127396167680000 |
|---|---|
| any_adam_object | |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV012730263 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HD4802 |
| callnumber-raw | HD4802 |
| callnumber-search | HD4802 |
| callnumber-sort | HD 44802 |
| callnumber-subject | HD - Industries, Land Use, Labor |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)42619503 (DE-599)BVBBV012730263 |
| format | Book |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>02542nam a2200337 cb4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV012730263</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">00000000000000.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">t</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">990824s1999 xxud||| |||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)42619503</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV012730263</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">rakddb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="044" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">xxu</subfield><subfield code="c">XD-US</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-521</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="050" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">HD4802</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Testing for structural breaks in the evaluation of programs</subfield><subfield code="c">Anne Morrison Piehl ...</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Cambridge, Mass.</subfield><subfield code="c">1999</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">18 S.</subfield><subfield code="b">graph. Darst.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series</subfield><subfield code="v">7226</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">A standard methodology in program evaluation is to use time series variation to compare pre- and post-program outcomes. However, when the timing of a break in a statistical relationship can be determined only by looking at the data, then the usual distribution of the test statistic which assumes exogenous timing of the break is no longer valid. Tests for parameter instability provide a flexible framework for testing a range of hypotheses commonly posed in program evaluation. These tests help pinpoint the timing of maximal break and provide a valid test of statistical significance. These tests are particularly useful when the start date of the intervention and any effect is unclear and possibly endogenous due to implementation lags. A test of parameter instability is applied to the evaluation of the Boston Gun Project, a comprehensive effort to reduce youth homicide in Boston in the mid 1990s. The dynamics of gang violence meant that no parts of the city could be used as reasonable comparison sites, and thus time series analysis is the only feasible means of evaluating the program impact. The statistical procedure identifies a statistically significant discontinuity in youth homicide incidents shortly after the intervention was unveiled. The intervention was associated with about a 60 percent decline in youth homicide.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Evaluation research (Social action programs)</subfield><subfield code="x">Statistical methods</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Piehl, Anne Morrison</subfield><subfield code="e">Sonstige</subfield><subfield code="4">oth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="776" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Erscheint auch als</subfield><subfield code="n">Online-Ausgabe</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="830" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series</subfield><subfield code="v">7226</subfield><subfield code="w">(DE-604)BV002801238</subfield><subfield code="9">7226</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="1"><subfield code="u">http://papers.nber.org/papers/w7226.pdf</subfield><subfield code="z">kostenfrei</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="999" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-008655432</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV012730263 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:32:41Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-008655432 |
| oclc_num | 42619503 |
| open_access_boolean | 1 |
| owner | DE-521 |
| owner_facet | DE-521 |
| physical | 18 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1999 |
| publishDateSearch | 1999 |
| publishDateSort | 1999 |
| record_format | marc |
| series | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |
| series2 | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |
| spelling | Testing for structural breaks in the evaluation of programs Anne Morrison Piehl ... Cambridge, Mass. 1999 18 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 7226 A standard methodology in program evaluation is to use time series variation to compare pre- and post-program outcomes. However, when the timing of a break in a statistical relationship can be determined only by looking at the data, then the usual distribution of the test statistic which assumes exogenous timing of the break is no longer valid. Tests for parameter instability provide a flexible framework for testing a range of hypotheses commonly posed in program evaluation. These tests help pinpoint the timing of maximal break and provide a valid test of statistical significance. These tests are particularly useful when the start date of the intervention and any effect is unclear and possibly endogenous due to implementation lags. A test of parameter instability is applied to the evaluation of the Boston Gun Project, a comprehensive effort to reduce youth homicide in Boston in the mid 1990s. The dynamics of gang violence meant that no parts of the city could be used as reasonable comparison sites, and thus time series analysis is the only feasible means of evaluating the program impact. The statistical procedure identifies a statistically significant discontinuity in youth homicide incidents shortly after the intervention was unveiled. The intervention was associated with about a 60 percent decline in youth homicide. Evaluation research (Social action programs) Statistical methods Piehl, Anne Morrison Sonstige oth Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 7226 (DE-604)BV002801238 7226 http://papers.nber.org/papers/w7226.pdf kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Testing for structural breaks in the evaluation of programs National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series Evaluation research (Social action programs) Statistical methods |
| title | Testing for structural breaks in the evaluation of programs |
| title_auth | Testing for structural breaks in the evaluation of programs |
| title_exact_search | Testing for structural breaks in the evaluation of programs |
| title_full | Testing for structural breaks in the evaluation of programs Anne Morrison Piehl ... |
| title_fullStr | Testing for structural breaks in the evaluation of programs Anne Morrison Piehl ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Testing for structural breaks in the evaluation of programs Anne Morrison Piehl ... |
| title_short | Testing for structural breaks in the evaluation of programs |
| title_sort | testing for structural breaks in the evaluation of programs |
| topic | Evaluation research (Social action programs) Statistical methods |
| topic_facet | Evaluation research (Social action programs) Statistical methods |
| url | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w7226.pdf |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002801238 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT piehlannemorrison testingforstructuralbreaksintheevaluationofprograms |