Unemployment and primary commodity prices: Theory and evidence in a global persprective
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Abschlussarbeit Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Basingstoke [u.a.]
Macmillan [u.a.]
1999
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVII, 182 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0333748336 0312220367 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Cristini, Annalisa |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Unemployment and primary commodity prices |b Theory and evidence in a global persprective |c Annalisa Cristini |
| 264 | 1 | |a Basingstoke [u.a.] |b Macmillan [u.a.] |c 1999 | |
| 300 | |a XVII, 182 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 502 | |a Teilw. zugl.: Oxford, Univ., Diss. | ||
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| 650 | 4 | |a Mathematisches Modell | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Unemployment -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Primary commodities -- Prices -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Petroleum products -- Prices -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804127160288411648 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Tables xi
List of Figures xiii
Acknowledgments xv
Foreword by Steve Nickell xvi
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Modelling the links between primary
commodity prices and the OECD economy 4
1.1.1 The characteristics of the model and
the bloc approach 5
1.2 Primary commodity prices: a historical
perspective 6
1.3 The oil market 9
1.3.1 The first oil shock 10
1.3.2 The second oil shock 12
1.3.3 The oil market in the 1980s and the
third oil price shock 12
1.4 The relationship between oil and non oil
commodity prices 14
1.5 The financial markets in the aftermath of
the oil shocks 15
1.6 OECD activity and primary commodity
prices: a vector autoregression analysis 20
1.6.1 Multivariate Granger causality tests 22
1.6.2 Cointegration analysis 29
1.7 Layout of the book 35
Appendix to Chapter 1: import unit value and
primary commodity price index 36
vii
viii Contents
2 The Outline of the Theory 38
2.1 The OECD product market 39
2.2 The functioning of the OECD labour market 40
2.3 Industrial conflicts 42
2.4 The working of the OECD supply side 44
2.5 OECD and LDC aggregate demand 46
2.6 Current account imbalances, the world
capital market and the real interest rate 47
2.7 The evolution of the LDC external debt 51
2.8 The primary commodity market 52
2.9 The working of the model 55
2.9.1 The long run solution 57
2.9.2 A comparison between the long and
the short run 60
2.9.3 The sources of hysteresis: nominal
inertia 63
2.9.4 The sources of hysteresis: short run
factors 65
3 Details of the Model 67
3.1 The OECD production function and price
equation 67
3.2 The OECD labour market 71
3.2.1 The competitive model 71
3.2.2 The efficiency wage model 72
3.2.3 The insider outsider model 73
3.3 A model of strikes 76
3.4 OECD and LDC aggregate demand 78
3.5 The financial market 79
3.6 The primary commodity market 81
Contents ix
4 Estimations and Simulations 87
4.1 The estimated OECD supply side 87
4.2 OECD and LDC estimated aggregate demand 91
4.3 The estimated financial market 92
4.4 The estimated primary commodity market 94
4.5 How we use the estimated model 95
4.6 The long run equilibrium 95
4.7 The breakdown of the equilibrium paths 105
4.7.1 The economic situation in the five
sub periods 107
4.7.2 Accounting for the change of
equilibrium rate of unemployment 109
4.7.3 Accounting for the change of
equilibrium non oil commodity price
index 110
4.7.4 Accounting for the change of
equilibrium real wage 110
4.7.5 Accounting for the change of
equilibrium real interest rate 112
4.7.6 Accounting for the change of
equilibrium LDC real external debt 113
4.7.7 Accounting for the change of
equilibrium LDC GDP 114
4.8 The short run: nominal inertia and the
determinants of wage and price forecasting
errors 115
4.9 Hysteresis of the OECD unemployment rate 117
4.10 Oil shock simulations 122
4.10.1 The role of adjustment processes
and short run factors 123
4.10.2 The role of single external markets
on the OECD economy 129
x Contents
4.10.3 The propagation of the oil shock
to the whole system 134
4.10.4 A summary of the oil shock effects 140
Appendix to Chapter 4: the estimated model
1958 1988 3SLS 143
5 Conclusions 150
5.1 The descriptive analysis 150
5.2 The vector autoregression analysis 152
5.3 The basic features of the model 152
5.4 External markets and hysteresis of the OECD
unemployment rate 153
5.5 What have we learned about the links
between primary commodity prices and the
OECD economic performance? 154
5.5.1 Through which channels do
commodity prices feed into the North? 155
5.5.2 Through which channels does the
North economy affect external
markets? 155
5.5.3 What is the role of the financial
market? 156
5.6 How does the system react to exogenous
primary commodity price shocks? 156
5.7 The impact of the real price of oil on the
low frequency movements of the endogenous
variables 157
5.8 Epilogue 159
Data Appendix: Definitions and Sources 160
Notes 164
References 173
Index 179
List of Tables
1.1 Export composition: share of goods in total
exports 7
1.2 Standard deviations of commodity prices and
of the OECD GDP deflator 8
1.3 Capital formation, domestic savings and
International capital transfers 18
1.4 Total resource flows to different categories of
developing countries, 1981 19
1.5 Unit root tests 195 88 22
1.6 X2(2) test for the significance of the primary
commodity price index in the rate of
unemployment equation 23
1.7 X2(2) test for the significance of the rate of
unemployment in the primary commodity
price equation 24
1.8 X2(2) test for the significance of OECD GDP
in the primary commodity price equation 25
1.9 X2(2) test for the significance of OECD rate
of unemployment in the primary commodity
price equation 25
1.10 X2(2) test for the significance of the real
interest rate in the rate of unemployment
equation 26
1.11 X2(2) test for the significance of rate of
unemployment in the real interest rate
equation 26
1.12 X2(2) test for the significance of the
short term nominal interest rate in the
primary commodity price equation 27
1.13 X2(2) test for the significance of the primary
commodity price index in the short term
nominal interest rate equation 28
1.14 Johansen cointegration tests 31
xi
xii List of Tables
1.15 Estimated cointegrated vectors in Johansen
estimation (normalized) 33
1.16 Estimated cointegrated vectors in Johansen
procedure (normalized) 34
4.1 Long run equilibrium estimated equations 105
4.2 Changes of endogenous and exogenous
variables by sub periods 106
4.3 Breakdown of the change of equilibrium
OECD unemployment rate (percentage points) 109
4.4 Breakdown of the change of equilibrium real
non oil primary commodity price (percentage) 111
4.5 Breakdown of the change of equilibrium real
wage (percentage) 112
4.6 Breakdown of the change of equilibrium real
interest rate (percentage points) 113
4.7 Breakdown of the change of equilibrium real
LDC external debt (percentage) 114
4.8 Breakdown of the change of equilibrium real
LDC GDP (percentage) 115
4.9 Breakdown of wage and price forecasting
errors (percentage) 116
4.10 The persistence of U 118
4.11 The effect of the primary commodity market
on the persistence of U: financial market
exogenous 120
4.12 The effect of the financial market on the
persistence of U: primary commodity market
exogenous 121
5.1 Changes of the oil price and of some
equilibrium variables due to the price of oil
(percentage) 158
List of Figures
1.1 OECD rate of unemployment and primary
commodity prices 1
1.2 Rate of unemployment and non oil commodity
prices 2
1.3 Rate of unemployment and the price of oil 2
1.4 Rate of unemployment and real non oil
commodity prices 3
1.5 Rate of unemployment and the real oil price 3
1.6 Non oil primary commodity price indices 14
1.7 Industrialized countries: imports by origin 16
1.8 Non oil developing countries: imports by
origin 16
1.9 Real interest rate and highly indebted
countries import volume 20
2.1 Number of industrial conflicts in the OECD 43
2.2 North equilibrium 45
2.3 OECD real rate of interest 49
2.4 North South equilibrium 59
2.5 Short and long run lines 62
2.6 Constant change of inflation line 64
4.1 Wage and price lines 96
4.2 Production function and aggregate demand 96
4.3 North and South lines 97
4.4 OECD rate of unemployment 99
4.5 Real wage 99
4.6 Real interest rate 100
4.7a Real non oil primary commodity price 100
4.7b Nominal non oil primary commodity price 101
4.8a Real LDC external debt 101
4.8b Nominal LDC external debt 102
4.9a Normalized number of conflicts 102
4.9b Number of conflicts 103
4.10 OECD GDP 103
4.11 LDC GDP 104
xiii
xiv List of Figures
4.12 Recursive estimates of the coefficient of
lagged U 119
4.13 Recursive estimates of the coefficient of U* 119
4.14 Recursive estimates of the coefficient of
lagged U. Restricted model: North +
primary commodity + LDC GDP 121
4.15 Recursive estimates of the coefficient of
lagged U. Restricted model: North +
financial market 122
4.16 Rate of unemployment multipliers 124
4.17 OECD GDP multipliers 124
4.18 Real wage multipliers 125
4.19 Normalized number of conflicts multipliers 125
4.20 Real non oil primary commodity price
multipliers 126
4.21 Real interest rate multipliers 126
4.22 LDC GDP multipliers 127
4.23 LDC real external debt multiplier 127
4.24 The restricted models 129
4.25 Rate of unemployment dynamic multipliers 130
4.26 OECD GDP dynamic multipliers 131
4.27 OECD inflation dynamic multipliers 132
4.28 Real wage dynamic multipliers 133
4.29 Normalized number of conflict dynamic
multipliers 133
4.30 Rate of unemployment sequential multipliers 135
4.31 OECD GDP sequential multipliers 135
4.32 Real wage sequential multipliers 136
4.33 Normalized number of conflict sequential
multipliers 137
4.34 OECD inflation sequential multipliers 137
4.35 Non oil primary commodity price sequential
multipliers 138
4.36 Real interest rate sequential multipliers 139
4.37 LDC GDP sequential multipliers 140
4.38 LDC real external debt sequential multiplier 141
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:28:56Z |
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| spelling | Cristini, Annalisa Verfasser aut Unemployment and primary commodity prices Theory and evidence in a global persprective Annalisa Cristini Basingstoke [u.a.] Macmillan [u.a.] 1999 XVII, 182 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Teilw. zugl.: Oxford, Univ., Diss. OECD (DE-588)5157-3 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell Unemployment -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models Primary commodities -- Prices -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models Petroleum products -- Prices -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models Rohstoffpreis (DE-588)4050428-1 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Arbeitslosigkeit (DE-588)4002730-2 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Rohstoffpreis (DE-588)4050428-1 s Arbeitslosigkeit (DE-588)4002730-2 s DE-604 OECD (DE-588)5157-3 b Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008496185&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Cristini, Annalisa Unemployment and primary commodity prices Theory and evidence in a global persprective OECD (DE-588)5157-3 gnd Mathematisches Modell Unemployment -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models Primary commodities -- Prices -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models Petroleum products -- Prices -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models Rohstoffpreis (DE-588)4050428-1 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Arbeitslosigkeit (DE-588)4002730-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)5157-3 (DE-588)4050428-1 (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4002730-2 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Unemployment and primary commodity prices Theory and evidence in a global persprective |
| title_auth | Unemployment and primary commodity prices Theory and evidence in a global persprective |
| title_exact_search | Unemployment and primary commodity prices Theory and evidence in a global persprective |
| title_full | Unemployment and primary commodity prices Theory and evidence in a global persprective Annalisa Cristini |
| title_fullStr | Unemployment and primary commodity prices Theory and evidence in a global persprective Annalisa Cristini |
| title_full_unstemmed | Unemployment and primary commodity prices Theory and evidence in a global persprective Annalisa Cristini |
| title_short | Unemployment and primary commodity prices |
| title_sort | unemployment and primary commodity prices theory and evidence in a global persprective |
| title_sub | Theory and evidence in a global persprective |
| topic | OECD (DE-588)5157-3 gnd Mathematisches Modell Unemployment -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models Primary commodities -- Prices -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models Petroleum products -- Prices -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models Rohstoffpreis (DE-588)4050428-1 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Arbeitslosigkeit (DE-588)4002730-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | OECD Mathematisches Modell Unemployment -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models Primary commodities -- Prices -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models Petroleum products -- Prices -- OECD countries -- Mathematical models Rohstoffpreis Arbeitslosigkeit Hochschulschrift |
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