Uncertain decisions: bridging theory and experiments
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Boston [u.a.]
Kluwer Acad. Publ.
1999
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXXI, 341 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0792383915 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Uncertain decisions |b bridging theory and experiments |c ed. by Luigi Luini |
| 264 | 1 | |a Boston [u.a.] |b Kluwer Acad. Publ. |c 1999 | |
| 300 | |a XXXI, 341 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
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| 650 | 4 | |a Uncertainty |v Congresses | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Utility theory |v Congresses | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804127086774845440 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Figures xi
List of Tables xiii
Contributors x v
Introduction xix
Part I Non expected Utility Theory 1
1
Risk and Uncertainty Aversion with Reference to the Theories
of Expected Utility, Rank Dependent Expected Utility,
and Choquet Expected Utility 3
Aldo Montesano
1.1 Introduction 3
1.2 Definitions of Risk Aversion, Comparative Risk
Aversion, Aversion to Increasing Risk, and
Comparative Aversion to Increasing Risk 5
1.3 Risk Aversion in the Case of the
von Neumann Morgenstern
Expected Utility Theory (EUT) 7
1.4 Risk Aversion in the Case of the Rank Dependent
Expected Utility Theory (RDEUT) 12
1.5 Definitions of Uncertainty Aversion,
Comparative Uncertainty Aversion,
Aversion to Increasing Uncertainty, and
Comparative Aversion to Increasing Uncertainty 24
1.6 Uncertainty and Risk Aversion in the Case of the
Savage Expected Utility Theory (EUT) 27
1.7 Uncertainty and Risk Aversion in the Case of
the Choquet Expected Utility Theory (CEUT) 27
References 37
v
2
Dynamic Consistency and Non Expected Utility
Uzi Segal
2.1 Introduction 39
2.2 Definitions 41
2.3 Expected Utility as the Limit of Updated Preferences 42
2.4 The Reduction Axiom 47
2.5 Concluding Remarks 49
References 51
3
Ambiguity Aversion and Non Additive Probability:
Experimental Evidence, Models and Applications 53
Colin Camerer
3.1 Introduction 53
3.2 Subjective Expected Utility and the Ellsberg Paradox 54
3.3 Conceptions of Ambiguity as Missing Information 56
3.4 Experimental Tests 56
3.5 Formal Models of Ambiguity 60
3.6 Applications and Speculations 68
3.7 Conclusion 72
References 75
Part II Non expected Utility Applications 81
4
Consumption, Savings and Asset Returns
with Non Expected Utility 83
Larry G. Epstein
4.1 Introduction 83
4.2 Intertemporal Utility 85
4.3 Risk 93
4.4 Knightian Uncertainty 100
References 105
5
Estimating (Risk) Preference Functionals
Using Experimental Methods 109
John D. Hey
5.1 Introduction 109
5.2 Experimental Methods 110
5.3 Estimatible Preference Functionals 114
5.4 Assumptions about the Data Generating Process 119
5.5 Estimation Procedures 121
5.6 Previous Results 122
5.7 Exploring the Adequacy 124
5.8 Conclusions 125
References 127
6
Randomisation, Mixed Strategies and the Reduction Axiom 129
Michele Bernasconi
6.1 Introduction 129
6.2 Individual Decision Making with Non linear Preferences 130
vi
6.3 Mixed Strategies with Non linear Preferences 135
6.4 A Concluding Discussion on the General Perceptual
Problems when Reduction Fails 142
References 145
7
Experimental Studies of Signaling Games 147
Frans variWinden
7.1 Introduction 147
7.2 Game Theory and Experimental Issues 148
7.3 Equilibria and Refinements 151
7.4 Comparative Statics 157
7.5 Subjects Pool Effects 161
7.6 Adaptive Behavior and Learning 163
7.7 Concluding Discussion 165
References 171
8
Independence between Events with Non additive Probability 175
Nicola Dimitri
8.1 Introduction 175
8.2 Definitions of Independence and their Implications 176
8.3 An Alternative Characterization of Independence 178
8.4 Discussion and Conclusions 180
References 181
Part III New departures from classical decision theory 183
9
Fuzzy Decision Theory 185
Antoine Billot
9.1 Introduction 185
9.2 Basics 186
9.3 The Fuzzy Preference and its Properties 187
9.4 Fuzzy Utility Function on a Convex Set 190
9.5 Another Proof for Fuzzy Utility 194
9.6 Aggregation of Fuzzy Preferences 197
9.7 Arrovian Dictator and Fuzzy Preferences 198
9.8 Proof of the Dictator Theorem with Fuzzy Preferences 201
9.9 Fuzzy Coalitions and Democracy 201
9.10 Generalized Theorem: Arrow vs May 206
References 211
10
An Overview of Case Based Decision Theory 215
Itzhak Gilboa and David Schmeidler
10.1 Introduction 215
10.2 Behavioral Theories and Cognitive Plausibility 216
10.3 Decision under Uncertainty 218
10.4 Epistemological Foundations 222
10.5 Repeated Choice 224
10.6 Aspiration Level Adjustment and Optimality 225
10.7 Planning 228
10.8 Consumer Theory 229
10.9 Process dependent preferences 231
vii
References 233
11
The Recent Advances in Decision Theory under Uncertainty:
a Non Technical Introduction 237
Alessandro Vercelli
11.1 Introduction 237
11.2 First order and Second order Measures of Uncertainty 238
11.3 A Taxonomy of Decision Theories 242
11.4 Decision Theories and Decision Criteria 247
11.5 The Scope of Hard Uncertainty Decision Theory 248
11.6 The Puzzle of Awareness 249
11.7 Time and rationality 251
11.8 Learning 252
11.9 Concluding Remarks 253
References 254
Part IV Value to Real World: the Experimental Contribution 261
12
Decision Theory and Real Decisions: a Research Agenda 263
Kenneth R. MacCrimmon
12.1 Introduction 263
12.2 Goals as the Primitive Value Concept 266
12.3 Specification of Constraints and Resources 269
12.4 Linking Beliefs back to Facts 271
12.5 Dealing with Ambiguous, Multiple event Scenarios 273
12.6 Risk Modification as a Strategy 275
12.7 Formulating Decision Problems 276
12.8 Generating Alternatives 278
12.9 Bounded Rationality of Decision Makers 280
12.10 Personality, Emotion and Culture 283
12.11 Dynamics of Decisions:
Learning, Adaptation and Evolution 284
12.12 Conclusions 285
References 287
13
Policy and the Use of Laboratory Experimental Methodology
in Economics 293
Charles R. Plott
13.1 Introduction 293
13.2 The concept of an institution 294
13.3 The creation of simple laboratory auction processes 296
13.4 Some competing theories 299
13.5 Results and data 301
13.6 Philosophy and application of experimental
methods: an overview 302
13.7 A map to the method: the fundamental equation 307
13.8 Reflections on the issues 308
References 317
viii
14
Buyer and Seller Effect Disentangled.
An Experiment on the Microstructure of Demand 319
Claudio Borelli, Alessandro Innocenti and Luigi Luini
14.1 Introduction 319
14.2 A microstructural approach 321
14.3 Laboratory procedures 322
14.4 Descriptive data analysis 324
14.5 Final remarks 331
References 339
Index
ix
List of Figures
2.1 Why updated preferences almost obey the
independence axiom 45
2.2 The full form of the decision trees T and 7* 48
5.1 Different display styles 126
6.1 Examples of single stage and two stage lotteries 132
6.2 Indifference curves in the Marshak Machina triangle 133
6.3 A game with no Nash equilibrium when preferences are
quasiconvex 136
6.4 Games in the Marshak Machina triangle 139
6.5 The zero sum game from player R s perspective 140
6.6 Two ways of perceiving the three bags problem 143
11.1 Standard Terminology 238
11.2 Suggested Terminology 243
11.3 Decision criteria 248
11.4 Uncertainty, Ignorance, Unawareness 250
13.1 EPA price discovery process 311
13.2 EPA auction: observed behavior 311
13.3a Uniform price auction, periods 1 8 312
13.3b Uniform price auction, periods 9 16 312
13.3c Uniform price auction, periodsi7 24 313
13.4a EPA auction, periods 1 8 313
13.4b EPA auction, periods 9 16 314
13.4c EPA auction, periods 17 24 314
13.5 Fundamental equation 315
14.1 Parameters for Phase A 332
14.2 Parameters for Phase B 332
14.3 Parameters for Phase C 333
14.4 Phase A first period: plot of bids, asks and
transactions prices 333
14.5 Phase A second period: plot of bids, asks and
transactions prices 333
14.6 Phase B first period: plot of bids, asks and
transactions prices 334
xi
14.7 Phase B second period: plot of bids, asks and
transactions prices 334
14.8 Phase C Market 1: plot of bids, asks and
transactions prices 334
14.9 Phase C Market 2: plot of bids, asks and
transactions prices 335
14.10 Phase B Plot of price change against
lagged price change 335
14.11 Timing of transactions: average values 335
14.12 Timing of transactions 336
14.13 Phase A: ask bid spread 336
14.14 Phase B: ask bid spread 336
14.15 Phase C Market 1: ask bid spread 337
14.16 Phase C Market 2: ask bid spread 337
xii
List of Tables
3.1 The three color Ellsberg problem 55
3.2 Stylized empirical facts about ambiguity effects 57
3.3 The row player bets on column s rationality 71
7.1 Game 2 of BCP (1994): Sequential vs Nash 152
7.2 Game 3 of BCP(1994): Intuitive vs Sequential 152
7.3 Game 1 of BH (1993) 154
7.4 Game 2 of BH (1993): changed payoffs, same equilibria 154
8.1 Independence relations: duality 179
11.1 Theories of decision under uncertainty 246
12.1 Decision theory focus: Is vs Ought; real vs ideal 265
13.1 EPA auction: redemption values and costs 315
14.1 Summary of implications to be tested 321
14.2 Price distribution and transaction price changes 325
14.3 Transaction partners 326
14.4 Successive improvements on bids (asks) by the same
seller (buyer) as percentage of all bids and asks 328
14.5 The effect of outrageous errors 330
xiii
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| spelling | Uncertain decisions bridging theory and experiments ed. by Luigi Luini Boston [u.a.] Kluwer Acad. Publ. 1999 XXXI, 341 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Besliskunde gtt Onzekerheid gtt Decision making Congresses Equilibrium (Economics) Congresses Uncertainty Congresses Utility theory Congresses Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift 1995 Siena gnd-content Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 s Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s DE-604 Luini, Luigi Sonstige oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008447559&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Uncertain decisions bridging theory and experiments Besliskunde gtt Onzekerheid gtt Decision making Congresses Equilibrium (Economics) Congresses Uncertainty Congresses Utility theory Congresses Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4070864-0 (DE-588)4138606-1 (DE-588)1071861417 |
| title | Uncertain decisions bridging theory and experiments |
| title_auth | Uncertain decisions bridging theory and experiments |
| title_exact_search | Uncertain decisions bridging theory and experiments |
| title_full | Uncertain decisions bridging theory and experiments ed. by Luigi Luini |
| title_fullStr | Uncertain decisions bridging theory and experiments ed. by Luigi Luini |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertain decisions bridging theory and experiments ed. by Luigi Luini |
| title_short | Uncertain decisions |
| title_sort | uncertain decisions bridging theory and experiments |
| title_sub | bridging theory and experiments |
| topic | Besliskunde gtt Onzekerheid gtt Decision making Congresses Equilibrium (Economics) Congresses Uncertainty Congresses Utility theory Congresses Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Besliskunde Onzekerheid Decision making Congresses Equilibrium (Economics) Congresses Uncertainty Congresses Utility theory Congresses Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit Entscheidungstheorie Konferenzschrift 1995 Siena |
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