Stocks for the long run: the definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York [u.a.]
McGraw-Hill
1998
|
| Ausgabe: | 2. ed. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVIII, 301 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 007058043X |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Stocks for the long run |b the definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies |c Jeremy J. Siegel |
| 250 | |a 2. ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a New York [u.a.] |b McGraw-Hill |c 1998 | |
| 300 | |a XVIII, 301 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Acciones (Bolsa) | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Acciones (Bolsa) - Historia | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Actions (Titres de société) | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Actions (Titres de société) - Histoire | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Actions de sociétés - Histoire |2 ram | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Actions de sociétés |2 ram | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Effecten |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Rentabilité |2 ram | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Return on investment |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Tasa de rendimiento | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Taux de rendement | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Geschichte | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Rate of return | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Stocks | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Stocks |x History | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Stocks |x Rate of return | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804127052508430336 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS Acknowledgments xi
Foreword xiii
Preface xvi
PARTI THE VERDICT OF HISTORY
Chapter 1
Stock and Bond Returns Since 1802 3
Everybody Ought to be Rich 3
Financial Market Returns from 1802 5
Historical Series on Bonds 7
The Price Level and Gold 9
Total Real Returns 10
Interpretation of Returns 12
Long Period Returns 12
Short Period Returns 13
Real Returns on Fixed Income Assets 14
Explanations for the Fall in Fixed Income Returns 15
Equity Premium 16
International Returns 18
Germany 19
United Kingdom 20
Japan 20
Foreign Bonds 21
Conclusion 22
Appendix 1: Stocks from 1802 to 1871 22
Appendix 2: Arithmetic and Geometric Returns 23
Chapter 2
Risk, Return and the Coming Age Wave 25
Measuring Risk and Return 25
Risk and Holding Period 26
Hi
iv CONTENTS
Investor Holding Periods 28
Investor Returns from Market Peaks 29
Standard Measures of Risk 31
Correlation Between Stock and Bond Returns 33
Efficient Frontiers 35
Recommended Portfolio Allocations 36
Inflation Indexed Bonds 38
The Coming Age Wave 38
Solution to the Age Wave Crisis 41
Chapter 3
Perspectives on Stocks as Investments 43
Early Views of Stock Investing 45
Influence of Smith s Work 46
Common Stock Theory of Investment 48
A Radical Shift in Sentiment 49
Post Crash View of Stock Returns 49
Investment Philosophy and the Valuation of Equity 51
PART 2 STOCK RETURNS
Chapter 4
Stocks, Stock Averages, and the Dow Strategy 55
Market Averages 55
The Dow ]ones 55
Computation of the Dow Index 57
Long Term Trends in the Dow Jones 58
Use of Trend Lines to Predict Trends 59
Value Weighted Indexes 60
The Cowles Index 60
Standard Poor s Index 60
Indexes of Large and Small U.S. Stocks 61
Market Capitalization of Individual Stocks 62
Return Biases in Stock Indexes 63
Dow 10 Strategy 65
How to Play the Dow 10 Strategy 68
Appendix A: What Happened to the Original 12 Dow Industrials? 69
CONTENTS v
Chaptei 5
Dividends, Earnings, and Investor Sentiment 71
An Evil Omen Returns 71
Valuation of Cash Flows from Stocks 73
Short and Long Term Returns from Stocks 74
Sources of Shareholder Value 76
Does the Value of Stocks Depend on Dividends or Earnings? 78
Total Returns to Stocks 79
Economic Growth, Earnings Growth, and P E Ratios 80
Historical Yardsticks for Valuing the Market 81
Price Earnings Ratios and the Rule of 19 81
Book Value, Market Value, and Tobin s Q 82
Corporate Profits and Market Value to GDP 85
Valuation: Fundamentals or Sentiment? 86
Contrarian Indicators 87
Current Trends and Conclusions 89
Chapter 6
Large Stocks, Small Stocks, Value Stocks, Growth Stocks 91
Outperforming the Market 91
Risks and Returns in Small Stocks 92
Trends in Small Stock Returns 94
Value Criteria 96
Price Earnings Ratios 96
Price to Book Ratios 97
Value and Growth Stocks 98
Dividend Yields 100
Distressed Firms 101
Initial Public Offerings 102
Are Small Stocks Growth Stocks? 103
Investment Strategy 103
Chapter 7
The Nifty Fifty Revisited 105
The Nifty Fifty 106
Returns of the Nifty Fifty 106
Evaluation of Data 108
vi CONTENTS
What is the Right P/E Ratio to Pay for a Growth Stock? 110
Earnings Growth and Valuation 111
Conclusion 112
Appendix: Corporate Changes in the Nifty Fifty Stocks 113
Chapter 8
Taxes and Stock Returns 115
Historical Taxes on Income and Capital Gains 115
A Total After Tax Returns Index 117
The Benefits of Deferring Capital Gains Taxes 119
Stocks or Bonds in Tax Deferred Accounts? 121
Summary 122
Appendix: History of the Tax Code 122
Chapter 9
Global Investing 124
Foreign Stock Returns 124
Summary Data on Global Markets 126
Economic Growth and Stock Returns 129
Sources of Dollar Risk in International Stocks 131
Exchange Rate Risk 131
Diversification to Foreign Stocks 132
Optimal Allocation for Foreign Equities 132
Cross Country Correlations of Stock Returns 134
Hedging Foreign Exchange Risks 135
Stocks and the Breakdown of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism 136
Summary 139
PART 3 ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT OF INVESTING
Chapter 10
Money, Gold, and Central Banks 143
Money and Prices 144
The Gold Standard 145
The Establishment of the Federal Reserve 147
t
CONTENTS vii
Fall of the Gold Standard 148
Postdevaluation Policy 148
Postgold Monetary Policy 150
The Federal Reserve and Money Creation 151
How the Fed Affects Interest Rates 151
Who Makes the Decisions about Monetary Creation and Interest Rates? 152
Fed Policy Actions and Interest Rates 153
Conclusion 155
Chapter 11
Inflation and Stocks 157
Stocks as Inflationary Hedges 158
Why Stocks Fail as a Short Term Inflation Hedge 159
Higher Interest Rates 159
Supply Induced Inflation 161
Fed Policy, the Business Cycle, and Government Spending 162
Inflation and the U.S. Tax Code 162
Inflationary Distortions to Corporate Earnings 163
Inflation Biases in Interest Costs 164
Inflation and the Capital Gains Tax 164
Conclusion 167
Chapter 12
Stocks and the Business Cycle 168
Who Calls the Business Cycle? 169
Stock Returns Around Business Cycle Turning Points 172
Gains Through Timing the Business Cycle 175
How Hard is it to Predict the Business Cycle? 176
Concluding Comments 179
Chapter 13
World Events Which Impact Financial Markets 181
What Moves the Market? 182
Uncertainty and the Market 184
Democrats and Republicans 185
viii CONTENTS
Stocks and War 188
The World Wars 190
Post 1945 Conflicts 191
Summary 192
Chapter 14
Stocks, Bonds and the Flow of Economic Data 193
Principles of Market Reaction 195
Information Content of Data Releases 196
Economic Growth and Stock Prices 197
The Employment Report 197
The Cycle of Announcements 199
Inflation Reports 200
Core Inflation 101
Employment Costs 202
Impact on Financial Markets 202
Fed Policy 202
Summary 203
PART4 STOCK FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SHORT RUN
Chapter 15
Stock Index Futures, Options and Spiders 207
Stock Index Futures 207
The Impact of Index Futures 209
Basics of Futures Markets 210
Index Arbitrage 213
Predicting the New York Open with Globex Trading 215
Double and Triple Witching 216
Margin and Leverage 216
Advantage to Trading Futures 217
Spiders 218
Using Spiders or Futures 218
Index Options 219
Buying Index Options 221
i
CONTENTS ix
Selling Index Options 222
Long Term Trends and Stock Index Futures 223
Chapter 16
Market Volatility and the Stock Crash of October 1987 224
The Stock Crash of October 1987 226
Causes of the Stock Crash 228
Exchange Rate Policies 228
The Stock Crash and the Futures Market 229
Circuit Breakers 231
The Nature of Market Volatility 232
Historical Trends of Stock Volatility 232
Distribution of Large Daily Changes 235
The Economics of Market Volatility 237
Epilogue to the Crash 239
Chapter 17
Technical Analysis and Investing with the Trend 240
The Nature of Technical Analysis 240
Charles Dow, Technical Analyst 241
Randomness of Stock Prices 241
Simulations of Random Stock Prices 243
Trending Markets and Price Reversals 243
Moving Averages 245
Testing the Moving Average Strategy 246
Backtesting the 200 day Moving Average 247
Conclusion 251
Chapter 18
Calendar Anomalies 253
The January Effect 254
Causes of the January Effect 256
The January Effect in Value Stocks 258
Monthly Returns 260
The September Effect 262
Intramonth Returns 263
Day of the Week Effects 264
What s an Investor To Do? 266
x CONTENTS
PART 5 BUILDING WEALTH THROUGH STOCKS
Chapter 19
Funds, Managers, and Beating the Market 271
Performance of Equity Mutual Funds 272
Finding Skilled Money Managers 277
Reasons for Underperformance of Managed Money 278
A Little Learning is a Dangerous Thing 279
Profiting from Informed Trading 279
How Costs Affect Returns 280
What s an Investor to Do? 280
Chapter 20
Structuring a Portfolio for Long Term Growth 282
Practical Aspects of Investing 283
Return Enhancing Strategies 287
Implementing the Plan and the Role of an Investment Advisor 289
Conclusion 290
Index 291
4
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Siegel, Jeremy J. 1945- |
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| dewey-full | 332.63/22 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 332 - Financial economics |
| dewey-raw | 332.63/22 |
| dewey-search | 332.63/22 |
| dewey-sort | 3332.63 222 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 2. ed. |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV012416551 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:27:13Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 007058043X |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-008424499 |
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| physical | XVIII, 301 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1998 |
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| publisher | McGraw-Hill |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Siegel, Jeremy J. 1945- Verfasser (DE-588)131422979 aut Stocks for the long run the definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies Jeremy J. Siegel 2. ed. New York [u.a.] McGraw-Hill 1998 XVIII, 301 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Acciones (Bolsa) Acciones (Bolsa) - Historia Actions (Titres de société) Actions (Titres de société) - Histoire Actions de sociétés - Histoire ram Actions de sociétés ram Effecten gtt Rentabilité ram Return on investment gtt Tasa de rendimiento Taux de rendement Geschichte Rate of return Stocks Stocks History Stocks Rate of return Analyse (DE-588)4122795-5 gnd rswk-swf Investition (DE-588)4027556-5 gnd rswk-swf Wertpapiermarkt (DE-588)4189708-0 gnd rswk-swf Aktienanlage (DE-588)4125483-1 gnd rswk-swf Aktienbewertung (DE-588)4000933-6 gnd rswk-swf Aktienanlage (DE-588)4125483-1 s Aktienbewertung (DE-588)4000933-6 s Wertpapiermarkt (DE-588)4189708-0 s 1\p DE-604 Analyse (DE-588)4122795-5 s 2\p DE-604 Investition (DE-588)4027556-5 s 3\p DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008424499&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 3\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Siegel, Jeremy J. 1945- Stocks for the long run the definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies Acciones (Bolsa) Acciones (Bolsa) - Historia Actions (Titres de société) Actions (Titres de société) - Histoire Actions de sociétés - Histoire ram Actions de sociétés ram Effecten gtt Rentabilité ram Return on investment gtt Tasa de rendimiento Taux de rendement Geschichte Rate of return Stocks Stocks History Stocks Rate of return Analyse (DE-588)4122795-5 gnd Investition (DE-588)4027556-5 gnd Wertpapiermarkt (DE-588)4189708-0 gnd Aktienanlage (DE-588)4125483-1 gnd Aktienbewertung (DE-588)4000933-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4122795-5 (DE-588)4027556-5 (DE-588)4189708-0 (DE-588)4125483-1 (DE-588)4000933-6 |
| title | Stocks for the long run the definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies |
| title_auth | Stocks for the long run the definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies |
| title_exact_search | Stocks for the long run the definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies |
| title_full | Stocks for the long run the definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies Jeremy J. Siegel |
| title_fullStr | Stocks for the long run the definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies Jeremy J. Siegel |
| title_full_unstemmed | Stocks for the long run the definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies Jeremy J. Siegel |
| title_short | Stocks for the long run |
| title_sort | stocks for the long run the definitive guide to financial market returns and long term investment strategies |
| title_sub | the definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies |
| topic | Acciones (Bolsa) Acciones (Bolsa) - Historia Actions (Titres de société) Actions (Titres de société) - Histoire Actions de sociétés - Histoire ram Actions de sociétés ram Effecten gtt Rentabilité ram Return on investment gtt Tasa de rendimiento Taux de rendement Geschichte Rate of return Stocks Stocks History Stocks Rate of return Analyse (DE-588)4122795-5 gnd Investition (DE-588)4027556-5 gnd Wertpapiermarkt (DE-588)4189708-0 gnd Aktienanlage (DE-588)4125483-1 gnd Aktienbewertung (DE-588)4000933-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Acciones (Bolsa) Acciones (Bolsa) - Historia Actions (Titres de société) Actions (Titres de société) - Histoire Actions de sociétés - Histoire Actions de sociétés Effecten Rentabilité Return on investment Tasa de rendimiento Taux de rendement Geschichte Rate of return Stocks Stocks History Stocks Rate of return Analyse Investition Wertpapiermarkt Aktienanlage Aktienbewertung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008424499&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT siegeljeremyj stocksforthelongrunthedefinitiveguidetofinancialmarketreturnsandlongterminvestmentstrategies |