Understanding scientific reasoning:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Fort Worth [u.a.]
Harcourt Brace College Publ.
1997
|
| Ausgabe: | 4. ed. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVII, 309 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0155016253 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804126680512462848 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Understanding scientific reasoning
Autor: Giere, Ronald N.
Jahr: 1997
Contents
Preface v
Chapter i Why Understand Scientific Reasoning? 1
1.1 Why Study Scientific Reasoning? 1
1.2 Some Preliminary Examples 2
The Expanding Universe 2
Global Warming 3
Cigarette Smoking and Coronary Heart Disease 4
Summary 4
1.3 How To Study Scientific Reasoning 5
How Should We Understand Scientific Reasoning? 5
General Strategy 6
A Computer Analogy 6
Tactics 7
Reasoning as a Skill 8
Part One Theoretical Hypotheses 9
Chapter 2 Understanding and Evaluating
Theoretical Hypotheses 1i
2.1 The Double Helix: A Case Study 11
The Three-Chain Model 14
The Two-Chain Model 15
2.2 Understanding Episodes in Science 18
The Human Context of Science 18
Exploring How the World Works 19
Finding a Problem 20
Constructing Models 20
Deciding Whether a Model Fits 20
Convincing Others 21
Spreading the Word 21
2.3 Models and Theories 21
Scale Models 21
Analog Models 22
xii Contents
Models and Maps 22
Theoretical Models 24
Theoretical Hypotheses 25
Theories 26
2.4 Data from the Real World 27
2.5 Predictions from Models 28
2.6 The Components of a Scientific Episode 29
2.7 Evaluating Theoretical Hypotheses 31
Evidence That a Model Does Not Fit the Real World 32
Evidence That a Model Does Pit the Real World 33
2.8 A Program for Evaluating Theoretical Hypotheses 35
The Program 35
2.9 Why the Program Works 37
2.10 How the Program Works: Three Examples 38
A Case of Negative Evidence 38
A Case of Positive Evidence 40
A Case of Inconclusive Data 41
2.11 Crucial Experiments 42
The Structure of Crucial Experiments 43
Analysis of a Crucial Experiment 44
Chapter 3 Historical Episodes 59
3.1 The Phases of Venus 59
Analysis 62
3.2 Isaac Newton and Halley s Comet 64
Newtonian Models 64
Halley s Comet 67
Analysis 68
3.3 The Downfall of the Phlogiston Theory 70
Analysis 71
3.4 Darwin and Evolution 72
Special Creation 72
Darwin s Finches 73
Darwin s Model of Evolutionary Development 73
Analysis 76
3.5 Mendelian Genetics 78
Mendel s Original Experiments 78
Mendel s Model 78
The Backcross Test 80
Analyses 81
Contents xiii
3.6 The Revolution in Geology 84
Mobilism 85
Seafloor Spreading 85
Magnetism, Geomagnetism, and Paleomagnetism 86
Analyses 89
Chapter 4 Marginal Science 97
4.1 Freudian Psychology 98
Freud s Theory 98
The Case of Little Hans 99
Freud s Hypothesis 100
Analysis 100
4.2 Astrology 101
Analysis 103
The Predictions are Vague 103
There are Multiple Predictions 104
Astrology as an Interpretative Framework 104
4.3 Extraterrestrial Visitation 104
Analysis 105
An Alternative Model 106
What About the Data? 107
4.4 Reincarnation 107
In Search of Bridey Murphy 108
Analysis 108
4.5 Extrasensory Perception 109
Clairvoyance 110
Analysis 110
Speaking of Probability 111
4.6 The Burden of Proof 111
PART TWO STATISTICAL AND CAUSAL HYPOTHESES 1 19
Chapter 5 Statistical Models and probability 121
5.1 Why Statistical and Probabilistic Models are Important 121
5.2 The Elements of a Statistical Study 122
The Real World Population 122
The Sample 122
A Model of the Population 122
A Model of the Sample 123
Putting the Elements Together 123
XIV CONTENTS
5.3 Proportions and Distributions 124
Proportions 124
Variables 125
Distributions 126
5.4 Simple Correlations 126
Variables Not Correlated 127
Variables Correlated 128
Summary 130
5.5 Symmetry of Correlations 130
5.6 Strength of Correlations 132
5.7 Probability Models 133
A Probability Model 134
Simple Addition Rule 134
Simple Multiplication Rule 135
Conditional Probabilities 136
5.8 The Flippant Judge 137
The Problem 137
The Solution 138
5.9 Sampling 139
Replacement 139
Random Sampling: Two Trials 140
Three, Four, and Five Trials 143
5.10 Large Samples 144
Expected Frequency 145
Standard Deviation 149
The Value of Large Samples 150
5.11 Sampling with Unequal Probabilities 151
Appendix 151
A Correlation Coefficient 151
CHAPTER 6 EVALUATING STATISTICAL HYPOTHESES 157
6.1 Estimation 157
Margin of Error 159
Sample Size and Margin of Error 159
Confidence Level and Margin of Error 160
Sample Frequency and Margin of Error 162
6.2 Evaluating Distributions and Correlations 162
Evaluating Distributions 162
Evaluating Correlations 163
Evidence for a Correlation 163
Lack of Evidence for a Correlation 165
Contents xv
Estimating the Strength of a Correlation 166
Confidence Levels for Correlations 166
6.3 Statistical Significance 167
Statistically Significant Differences 167
Statistical Significance and Strength of Correlations 168
Evaluating Correlations: A Quick and Dirty Method 169
6.4 Survey Sampling 170
The National Health and Social Life Survey 170
How the Survey Was Carried Out 171
Selected Data 171
6.5 Evaluating Statistical Hypotheses 172
The Real-World Population 172
Sample Data 177
A Statistical Model 177
Random Sampling 177
Evaluating the Hypothesis 178
Summing Up 178
6.6 A Program for Evaluating Statistical Hypotheses 178
The Program 178
Race and Choice of Partners 180
Numbers of Sex Partners 181
Frequency of Sex 183
6.7 Problems With Survey Sampling 184
Nonrandom Sampling 184
Unreliability of Information 186
Appendix 187
Formula for Margin of Error 187
Formula for Statistically Significant Differences 187
Formula for Correctly Adding Margins of Error 187
CHAPTER 7 CAUSAL MODELS 198
7.1 Correlation and Causation 198
Correlation Without Causation 198
Causation Is Not Symmetric 199
Causal Production 199
7.2 Causal Models for Individuals 200
A Deterministic Model 200
Could Humans Be Deterministic Systems? 201
A Probabilistic Model 202
7.3 Causal Models for Populations 203
A Comparative Model for Causation in Populations 203
What If the Individuals Are Probabilistic? 205
xvi Contents
7.4 Effectiveness of Causal Factors 205
Effectiveness in Individuals 206
Effectiveness in Populations 206
7.5 Summary: How Causation Differs From Correlation 207
CHAPTER 8 EVALUATING CAUSAL HYPOTHESES 210
8.1 Saccharin and Cancer 210
8.2 Randomized Experimental Designs 212
Real-World Population and Causal Hypothesis 213
Sample Data 213
The Experimental Design 214
Random Sampling 214
Evaluating the Causal Hypothesis 215
Program for Evaluating Causal Hypotheses 217
The Program 217
The Second-Generation Saccharin Experiment 218
Of Rats and Humans 219
8.3 Double-Blind Studies 221
8.4 Smoking and Heart Disease 222
The Framingham Study 223
8.5 Prospective Designs 225
Controlling for Other Variables 226
Prospective Versus Randomized Experimental Designs 229
Evaluating the Framingham Study 230
8.6 Oral Contraceptives and Breast Cancer 231
8.7 Retrospective Designs 234
Nonrandom Selection of the Experimental Group 235
Constructing the Control Group 235
Controlling for Other Variables 236
Retrospective Studies and Survey Sampling 237
Effectiveness and Retrospective Studies 237
Evaluating Retrospective Studies 238
Evaluating the British Study 238
8.8 Statistical Evidence for Causal Hypotheses 240
Can Prospective Studies Prove a Causal Connection? 241
The Ethics of Experimental Design 242
8.9 Summary 242
Part Three Knowledge, Values, and Decisions 261
Chapter 9 Models of decision Making 263
9.1 Options 263
Contents xvii
9.2 States of the World 264
9.3 Outcomes 264
9.4 Values 265
Ranking Values 265
Measuring Values 265
9.5 Scientific Knowledge and Decision Strategies 266
9.6 Decision Making With Certainty 267
Highest-Value Strategy 267
9.7 Decision Making With Complete Uncertainty 268
Better and Worse Options 268
Best Options 269
Satisfactory Options 269
Playing It Safe 270
Gambling 271
Gambling versus Playing It Safe 272
9.8 Decision Making With Risk 272
Expected Value 273
Is the Expected-Value Strategy the Best Strategy? 274
9.9 Summary of Decision Strategies 275
Chapter 10 Evaluating Decisions 278
10.1 A Program for Evaluating Decisions 278
The Program 278
10.2 Decisions Involving Low Probabilities 279
Oral Contraceptives and Breast Cancer 279
Evaluating the Decision 279
10.3 Decisions Involving Moderate Probabilities 282
The Smoking Decision 282
Evaluating the Decision 282
Further Considerations 285
Confronting Your Values 286
10.4 Policy Decisions with Uncertainty 287
Global Wanning 287
Evaluating the Decision 288
Whose Decision Is It Anyway? 289
INDEX 295
CREDITS 309
|
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| discipline | Allgemeine Naturwissenschaft Philosophie |
| edition | 4. ed. |
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| spelling | Giere, Ronald N. Verfasser aut Understanding scientific reasoning Ronald N. Giere 4. ed. Fort Worth [u.a.] Harcourt Brace College Publ. 1997 XVII, 309 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Naturwissenschaft Philosophie Reasoning Science Philosophy Wissenschaftstheorie (DE-588)4117665-0 gnd rswk-swf Forschungsmethode (DE-588)4155046-8 gnd rswk-swf Naturwissenschaften (DE-588)4041421-8 gnd rswk-swf Argumentation (DE-588)4002899-9 gnd rswk-swf Naturwissenschaften (DE-588)4041421-8 s Forschungsmethode (DE-588)4155046-8 s DE-604 Argumentation (DE-588)4002899-9 s 1\p DE-604 Wissenschaftstheorie (DE-588)4117665-0 s 2\p DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008177586&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Giere, Ronald N. Understanding scientific reasoning Naturwissenschaft Philosophie Reasoning Science Philosophy Wissenschaftstheorie (DE-588)4117665-0 gnd Forschungsmethode (DE-588)4155046-8 gnd Naturwissenschaften (DE-588)4041421-8 gnd Argumentation (DE-588)4002899-9 gnd |
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| title | Understanding scientific reasoning |
| title_auth | Understanding scientific reasoning |
| title_exact_search | Understanding scientific reasoning |
| title_full | Understanding scientific reasoning Ronald N. Giere |
| title_fullStr | Understanding scientific reasoning Ronald N. Giere |
| title_full_unstemmed | Understanding scientific reasoning Ronald N. Giere |
| title_short | Understanding scientific reasoning |
| title_sort | understanding scientific reasoning |
| topic | Naturwissenschaft Philosophie Reasoning Science Philosophy Wissenschaftstheorie (DE-588)4117665-0 gnd Forschungsmethode (DE-588)4155046-8 gnd Naturwissenschaften (DE-588)4041421-8 gnd Argumentation (DE-588)4002899-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Naturwissenschaft Philosophie Reasoning Science Philosophy Wissenschaftstheorie Forschungsmethode Naturwissenschaften Argumentation |
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