Investment timing and the business cycle:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York [u.a.]
Wiley
1998
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Wiley frontiers in finance
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Publisher description Table of Contents Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVII, 206 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0471188794 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 650 | 7 | |a Investeringen |2 gtt | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Securities | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Business cycles | |
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| adam_text | Contents
INTRODUCTION 1
Business and Growth Cycles 2
Monitoring Economic Cycles 3
Phases of the Business or Growth Cycle and Asset Returns 4
The Stock Market and Economic Cycles 4
The Bond Market and the Business Cycle 5
CHAPTER 1 FINANCIAL MARKETS AND
THE BUSINESS CYCLE 9
Phases of the Business/Growth Cycle and Asset Returns 10
Economic Fundamentals and Asset Prices 13
Relative Performance of Equities vs. Bonds 15
Historical Perspective 17
Comparative Global Returns 19
Selected References 20
CHAPTER 2 BUSINESS AND GROWTH CYCLES 21
Business Cycles 21
Growth Cycles 26
Global Business Cycles 28
Selected References 29
CHAPTER 3 MONITORING THE BUSINESS CYCLE 33
Sustainable Real Growth Rate and the Output Gap 33
Growth Cycle Phases 37
Selected References 41
ix
x Contents
CHAPTER 4 KEY U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS
AND THEIR INTERPRETATION 43
Business Cycle Indicators 44
Output, Production, Orders, Inventories, Sales and
Business Conditions 46
Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment 53
Consumer Spending, Personal Income and
Consumer Attitudes 55
Prices, Wages, Labor Costs and Productivity 57
Corporate Profits 60
Housing and Construction 61
International Accounts 61
Monetary and Credit Aggregates 63
Federal Government Finances 64
Selected References 65
CHAPTER 5 THE STOCK MARKET AND THE
BUSINESS CYCLE 69
Stock Market Returns and the Growth Cycle 69
Price versus Dividend Returns 72
Impact of the Business Cycle on Corporate Earnings
and Profits 74
Inventories, Monetary Policy and Corporate Profits 84
Impact of Interest Rates on the Stock Market 86
Selected References 87
CHAPTER 6 SECTOR ROTATION WITHIN THE
STOCK MARKET 89
Methodology and Framework 91
GDP Growth Sensitive Sectors 92
Growth and Interest Sensitive Sectors 99
Interest Sensitive Sectors 101
Contents xi
Stable Growth/Defensive Stocks 104
Growth Stocks 107
Selected References 111
CHAPTER 7 GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS 127
Relative Market Performance and the Global
Economic Cycle 127
The Rationale for Investing in Foreign Equity Markets 128
Global Business Cycle 129
Monitoring Global, Regional and Individual Country
Business Cycles 134
Regional and Country Cycles 137
CHAPTER 8 SEASONALITY IN GLOBAL
EQUITY MARKETS 147
Seasonality in the Anglo Saxon Equity Markets 148
Seasonality in the Continental European Equity Markets 152
Seasonality in the Asian Equity Markets 154
CHAPTER 9 THE BOND MARKET AND THE
BUSINESS CYCLE 163
Bond Market Returns and the Growth Cycle 164
Transmission of Monetary Impulses 168
The Taylor Rule, Fed Policy and the Federal Funds Rate 172
The Growth Cycle, the NAPM Index and the Federal
Funds Rate 175
The Yield Curve and the Growth Cycle 178
Bond Market Returns and Changes in the Level and
Shape of the Yield Curve 183
Nominal versus Real Interest Rates 184
Appendix 9.1 Term Structure of Interest Rates 184
Selected References 186
xii Contents
CHAPTER 10 GLOBAL BOND MARKETS 189
Global Bond Market Integration 189
Real versus Nominal Interest Rates 191
Spread Relationships between Markets 195
Interest Rates and the Inflation Premium 197
Yield Curve Slope 199
Selected References 200
INDEX 201
List of Exhibits
1.1 Business Cycle and Investment Returns 9
1.2 Phases of the U.S. Growth Cycle and Asset Returns 10
1.3 Asset Returns and the U.S. Growth Cycle 15
1.4 NAPM Index and the Relative Performance of Equities
vs. Bonds 16
1.5 Asset Returns under Various Economic Conditions 18
1.6 Historical Real Holding Period Returns 19
2.1 Business Cycles: U.S. GDP, Percentage Change on
Previous Quarter 1875 to 1983 22
2.2 U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions 24
2.3 U.S. Growth Cycles 27
2.4 Stylized Economic Growth Cycles 28
Appendix 2.1 A Synopsis of Selected Business
Cycle Theories 30
3.1 OECD Estimates of U.S. Growth Potential and
Output Gaps 34
3.2 U.S. Output Gap and Inflation 35
3.3 Capacity Utilization and the Unemployment Rate 36
3.4 GDP Growth Cycle 38
4.1 Business Cycle Indicators 46
4.2 Gross Domestic Product 47
4.3 Capacity Utilization Rate 48
4.4 National Association of Purchasing Managers
Survey (NAPM)—Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) 49
4.5 Output, Production, Orders, Inventories, Sales and
Business Conditions 52
4.6 Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment 53
4.7 Payroll Growth and Initial Jobless Claims 54
xiii
xiv List of Exhibits
4.8 Consumer Spending, Personal Income and
Consumer Attitudes 56
4.9 Consumer Confidence Survey 56
4.10 Prices, Wages, Labor Costs and Productivity 58
4.11 Employment Cost Index and the CPI 59
4.12 Unit Labor Costs and the CPI 60
4.13 Corporate Profits 60
4.14 Housing and Construction 62
4.15 International Accounts 63
4.16 Monetary and Credit Aggregates 64
4.17 Federal Government Finances 64
Appendix 4.1 Cyclical Indicators 66
5.1 Stock Market Returns, the Growth Cycle and
Monetary Policy 70
5.2 S P 500 Price Performance 73
5.3 S P 500 Rolling 12 Month Total Returns 73
5.4 Corporate Profits and Economic Growth 75
5.5 Profits Share of GNP 75
5.6 Costs and Profit per Unit of Output 77
5.7 Profits and the Business Cycle 78
5.8 Corporate Profits 78
5.9 Industrial Production and Corporate Profits 79
5.10 Capacity Utilization Rates and Corporate Profits 80
5.11 U.S. Output Gap and Corporate Profits 80
5.12 Business Fixed Investment and the Capacity
Utilization Rate 80
5.13 Employment Cost Index and the CPI 81
5.14 Unit Labor Costs and the CPI 82
5.15 GDP and Productivity Output Gaps 82
5.16 Productivity and the Business Cycle 84
5.17 Business Inventories and Industrial Production 85
6.1 Sector Rotation and the Business Cycle: Optimal
Investment Points 90
6.2 S P 500 Industry Ranked Returns: Best and Worst
Performing Groups 90
List of Exhibits xv
6.3 Basic and Industrial Materials Relative Performance
under Different Economic Conditions 94
6.4 Oil Price Changes and the Relative Performance of the
Composite Oil Price Index 95
6.5 Energy Sectors Relative Performance under Different
Economic Conditions 95
6.6 GDP Sensitive Sectors Relative Performance under
Different Economic Conditions 97
6.7 GDP Sensitive Sectors and GDP Growth 98
6.8 Business Fixed Investment and the Capacity
Utilization Rate 98
6.9 Consumer Cyclicals Relative Performance under
Different Economic Conditions 99
6.10 Growth and Interest Sensitive Sectors Relative
Performance under Different Economic Conditions 100
6.11 GDP Growth and 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yields 100
6.12 Interest Sensitive Sectors Relative Performance under
Different Economic Conditions 101
6.13 Bank Stock Price Performance Relative to the S P 500
and Interest Rate Changes 102
6.14 Relative Performance of Bank Stocks and Changes in the
Yield Curve Spread 103
6.15 Insurance Company Price Performance and Changes in
Interest Rates 104
6.16 Healthcare, Drug and Cosmetics Sectors Relative
Performance under Different Economic Conditions 105
6.17 Defensive Consumer Sectors Relative Performance
under Different Economic Conditions 106
6.18 Utility Companies Relative Performance 107
6.19 Sector and Industry Rotation and the Business Cycle 108
Appendix 6.1 Standard Poor s 500 Stock Market Index 112
Appendix 6.2 Industry and Sector Price Performance
Relative to the S P 500 under Different
Economic Conditions 116
7.1 Relative Price Performance of Major Stock Markets 127
xvi List of Exhibits
7.2 Global Equities Correlation Matrix 129
7.3 Geographical Contribution to World Growth 130
7.4 G 3 Output Gaps 131
7.5 Geographical Structure of the OECD Trade 132
7.6 European Equity Markets Correlation Matrix 133
7.7 OECD Output Gap and Inflation (CPI) 135
7.8 OECD Leading Indicators and Industrial Production 137
7.9 OECD Money Supply (Ml) Growth 138
7.10 European Leading Indicators and Industrial Production 138
7.11 French and German 10 Year Bond Yields 139
7.12 Relative Performance of French and German Equities 140
7.13 French and German Output Gaps 140
7.14 U.K. Equity Market 142
7.15 U.K. Output Gap 142
7.16 U.K. GDP Price Deflator 142
7.17 U.K. Industrial Production and Real Corporate Profits 143
7.18 U.K. CBI Business Confidence Indicator and
Industrial Production 144
7.19 Japanese Equity Market (TOPIX) 145
7.20 Relative Price Performance of High Growth Markets 146
8.1 Seasonality in the Anglo Saxon Equity Markets 149
8.2 Probability Adjusted Expected Returns 150
8.3 Seasonality in the Australian Stock Market, 1985 1995 151
8.4 Investment Strategies Suggested by Past
Seasonal Patterns 151
8.5 Seasonality in the Continental European Equity
Markets, 1986 1995 152
8.6 Probability Adjusted Returns Expectations 153
8.7 Investment Strategies Suggested by Past
Seasonal Patterns 154
8.8 Seasonality in the Asian Equity Markets, 1986 1995 155
8.9 Probability Adjusted Returns Expectations 156
8.10 Investment Strategies Suggested by Past
Seasonal Patterns 157
8.11 Seasonality in Global Equity Markets—Excess Returns
(Confidence Levels), 1986 1995 158
List of Exhibits xvii
8.12 Extraordinary Seasonal Returns 160
9.1 Bond Market Returns, the Growth Cycle and
Monetary Policy, January 1978 to December 1995 165
9.2 U.S. Fed Funds Rate 169
9.3 Transmission Channels of Monetary Policy 170
9.4 Transmission Channels of Monetary Policy 171
9.5 Taylor Rule and the Federal Funds Rate 173
9.6 U.S. Output Gap and Inflation 174
9.7 Opposite Moves in 90 Day Treasury Bill Yields and
10 Year Treasury Bond Yields 175
9.8 NAPM Index Level and U.S. GDP Growth 176
9.9 NAPM Index and Changes in the Federal Funds Rate 177
9.10 NAPM Deliveries Index and Changes in the Federal
Funds Rate 177
9.11 U.S. Output Gap and the Yield Curve 179
9.12 Types of Yield Curves 180
9.13 Yield Curve Frequency Distribution 181
9.14 Yield Curve Characteristics 181
9.15 U.S. Yield Curve 182
9.16 Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Returns 183
9.17 U.S. Real 10 Year Treasury Bond Yield 185
10.1 Salomon World Government Bond Index
Correlation Matrix 190
10.2 Value of Independent Variables in World Real
Interest Rates 194
10.3 Real Long Term Interest Rate Determinants 196
10.4 Real 10 Year Government Bond Yields 197
10.5 Econometric Assessment of Inflation Premia for G 5
10 Year Government Bonds 198
10.6 Yield Curve Slope l
|
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| id | DE-604.BV011854856 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:17:29Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0471188794 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-008007393 |
| oclc_num | 36705690 |
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| physical | XVII, 206 S. graph. Darst. |
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| series2 | Wiley frontiers in finance |
| spelling | Taylor, Jon G. Verfasser aut Investment timing and the business cycle Jon Gregory Taylor New York [u.a.] Wiley 1998 XVII, 206 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Wiley frontiers in finance Beleggingen gtt Business cycles gtt Investeringen gtt Investments Securities Business cycles Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd rswk-swf Investition (DE-588)4027556-5 gnd rswk-swf Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 s Investition (DE-588)4027556-5 s DE-604 http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/wiley033/97008632.html Publisher description http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/onix03/97008632.html Table of Contents HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008007393&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Taylor, Jon G. Investment timing and the business cycle Beleggingen gtt Business cycles gtt Investeringen gtt Investments Securities Business cycles Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd Investition (DE-588)4027556-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4032134-4 (DE-588)4027556-5 |
| title | Investment timing and the business cycle |
| title_auth | Investment timing and the business cycle |
| title_exact_search | Investment timing and the business cycle |
| title_full | Investment timing and the business cycle Jon Gregory Taylor |
| title_fullStr | Investment timing and the business cycle Jon Gregory Taylor |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investment timing and the business cycle Jon Gregory Taylor |
| title_short | Investment timing and the business cycle |
| title_sort | investment timing and the business cycle |
| topic | Beleggingen gtt Business cycles gtt Investeringen gtt Investments Securities Business cycles Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd Investition (DE-588)4027556-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Beleggingen Business cycles Investeringen Investments Securities Konjunkturzyklus Investition |
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