Nonlinear economic models: cross-sectional, time series and neural network applications
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cheltenham [u.a.]
Elgar
1997
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XV, 284 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 1858986370 |
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| 264 | 1 | |a Cheltenham [u.a.] |b Elgar |c 1997 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804126281116155904 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES XI LIST OF TABLES XIII CONTRIBUTORS XVII I
INTRODUCTION 1 NONLINEAR MODELLING: AN INTRODUCTION 1 JOHN CREEDY AND
VANCE L. MARTIN 1.1 LINEAR MODELS 2 1.1.1 ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION 3
1.1.2 A STRUCTURAL FORM 6 1.1.3 A DISTRIBUTIONAL SPECIFICATION 7 1.2 A
NONLINEAR APPROACH 8 1.2.1 THE GENERALISED EXPONENTIAL FAMILY 8 1.2.2
BIMODALITY AND THE GENERALISED EXPONENTIAL . 10 1.2.3 ESTIMATION AND
PREDICTION 11 1.3 DATA GENERATING PROCESSES 15 1.3.1 THE STOCHASTIC
DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION 16 1.3.2 TRANSITIONAL AND STATIONARY DISTRIBUTIONS
.... 18 1.4 EXAMPLES OF NONLINEAR MODELS 21 1.4.1 PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM
ANALYSIS 21 1.4.2 VARIANCE PROPORTIONAL TO PRICE 21 1.4.3 A STRUCTURAL
MODEL WITH MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA . . 22 1.5 GENERATING THE HYPOTHETICAL
TIME SERIES 24 1.5.1 THE MODEL 24 1.5.2 SIMULATION PROCEDURE 25 1.6
CONCLUSIONS 26 VI CONTENTS II CROSS-SECTIONAL APPLICATIONS 2 A MODEL OF
INCOME DISTRIBUTION 29 JOHN CREEDY, JENNY N. LYE AND VANCE L. MARTIN 2.1
THE MODEL 30 2.1.1 LABOUR DEMAND AND SUPPLY 30 2.1.2 THE STOCHASTIC
SPECIFICATION 32 2.1.3 ALTERNATIVE SPECIFICATIONS 35 2.2 ESTIMATION
METHODS 37 2.2.1 THE UNCONDITIONAL DISTRIBUTION 37 2.2.2 THE CONDITIONAL
DISTRIBUTION 39 2.3 APPLICATIONS 40 2.3.1 ESTIMATES OF THE UNCONDITIONAL
EARNINGS DISTRIBUTION 40 2.3.2 ESTIMATES OF THE CONDITIONAL EARNINGS
DISTRIBUTION 42 2.4 CONCLUSIONS 45 3 TRUNCATED DISTRIBUTION FAMILIES 47
JENNY N. LYE AND VANCE L. MARTIN 3.1 A STOCHASTIC MODEL OF INCOME 48 3.2
A FAMILY OF TRUNCATED DISTRIBUTIONS 50 3.2.1 DOUBLY TRUNCATED
DISTRIBUTIONS 50 3.2.2 SINGLY TRUNCATED DISTRIBUTIONS 53 3.3 ESTIMATION
OF DISTRIBUTIONS 55 3.3.1 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD 55 3.3.2 LEAST SQUARES 56
3.3.3 MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS 57 3.4 ESTIMATION OF REGRESSION MODELS 61
3.5 TESTING 62 3.6 CONCLUSIONS 68 4 BETIT: A FLEXIBLE BINARY CHOICE
MODEL 69 ALEX BAKKER AND VANCE L. MARTIN 4.1 THE BINARY CHOICE PROBLEM
70 4.2 THE BETIT MODEL 71 4.2.1 PARAMETERISATION AND IDENTIFICATION 74
4.2.2 RELATIONSHIPS WITH EXISTING APPROACHES 77 4.3 PSEUDO MAXIMUM
LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION 80 4.4 CONSTRUCTING NORMALITY TESTS 82 4.5 FEMALE
LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION 86 4.6 CONCLUSIONS 89 CONTENTS VII 5
ESTIMATION OF GENERALISED DISTRIBUTIONS 91 ALEX BAKKER 5.1 DERIVATION OF
THE LSFE 92 5.2 ERROR PROPERTIES 94 5.2.1 DERIVATION OF QUADRATURE ERROR
( X ) 94 5.2.2 NUMERICAL EXAMPLE 96 5.2.3 EMPIRICAL ERROR TERM (%) 97
5.3 ECONOMETRIC PROPERTIES 98 5.3.1 UNBIASEDNESS AND CONSISTENCY OF THE
LSFE .. 99 5.3.2 GENERALISED LEAST SQUARES FREQUENCY ESTIMATOR 100 5.3.3
MONTE CARLO EXPERIMENTS 101 5.4 OPTIMAL (K,N) RELATIONSHIP 102 5.4.1 THE
MSE CRITERION 104 5.4.2 A NUMERICAL SOLUTION 105 5.4.3 NUMERICAL EXAMPLE
106 5.5 LSFE AND GLSFE INFERENCE 107 5.5.1 INFERENCE ASSUMPTIONS 108
5.5.2 MONTE CARLO TESTING OF INFERENCE ASSUMPTIONS 108 5.6 CONCLUSIONS
109 6 AGE AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF EARNINGS 111 ALEX BAKKER AND JOHN
CREEDY 6.1 A DEMAND AND SUPPLY MODEL 112 6.1.1 THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
112 6.1.2 THE STOCHASTIC SPECIFICATION 113 6.2 ESTIMATION USING GROUPED
DATA 114 6.2.1 UNCONDITIONAL DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATES 115 6.2.2 MAXIMUM
LIKELIHOOD TECHNIQUES 117 6.3 APPLICATION TO NEW ZEALAND DATA 118 6.3.1
NEW ZEALAND INCOME DISTRIBUTION DATA 118 6.3.2 UNCONDITIONAL
DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATES 120 6.3.3 CONDITIONAL MODEL SPECIFICATION 124 6.4
CONCLUSIONS 126 7 COUNT DATA AND DISCRETE DISTRIBUTIONS 129 DAVID
DICKSON AND VANCE L. MARTIN 7.1 FAMILIES OF DISCRETE DISTRIBUTIONS 129
7.2 GENERALISED EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTIONS 132 7.3 ESTIMATION PROCEDURES
133 7.4 NUMERICAL ILLUSTRATIONS 134 VIII CONTENTS 7.5 AGGREGATE CLAIMS
DISTRIBUTIONS 138 7.6 CONCLUSIONS 140 III TIME SERIES APPLICATIONS 8 A
MODEL OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE 143 JOHN CREEDY, JENNY N. LYE AND VANCE
L. MARTIN 8.1 THE MODEL .. 144 8.1.1 THE ERROR CORRECTION REPRESENTATION
145 8.1.2 DISTRIBUTIONAL DYNAMICS 145 8.1.3 PROPERTIES OF THE MODEL 147
8.2 ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION 148 8.2.1 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION
148 8.2.2 PREDICTION CONVENTIONS 149 8.3 EMPIRICAL APPLICATION 149 8.3.1
MODEL SPECIFICATION 149 8.3.2 THE RESULTS 151 8.3.3 FORECASTING 151
8.3.4 INTERPRETATION 155 8.4 CONCLUSIONS 158 9 JUMP MODELS AND HIGHER
MOMENTS 161 G. C. LIM, JENNY N. LYE, GAEL M. MARTIN AND VANCE L. MARTIN
9.1 A GENERAL MODEL OF JUMP DYNAMICS 162 9.1.1 THE LINEAR MODEL 163
9.1.2 THE NONLINEAR MODEL 163 9.2 THEORETICAL EXAMPLES 164 9.2.1 STEP
FUNCTION 165 9.2.2 HETEROSCEDASTICITY 165 9.3 THE AUSTRALIAN 1987 CRASH
168 9.3.1 INTEGRATION AND COINTEGRATION PROPERTIES .... 168 9.3.2 MODEL
SPECIFICATION 170 9.3.3 DISTRIBUTIONAL CHARACTERISTICS 170 9.3.4
FORECASTING 173 9.4 CONCLUSIONS 174 10 ATOPOLOGICALTESTOFCHAOS 177
EUGENE S.Y. CHOO 10.1 THE TOPOLOGICAL APPROACH 178 10.2 PROPERTIES OF
CLOSE RETURNS PLOTS 181 10.2.1 PERIODIC BEHAVIOUR 181 CONTENTS IX 10.2.2
QUASI-PERIODIC BEHAVIOUR 184 10.2.3 CHAOTIC BEHAVIOUR 184 10.2.4
STOCHASTIC BEHAVIOUR 185 10.3 SIMULATED ECONOMIC MODELS 186 10.3.1 NEAR
UNIT PROCESSES 186 10.3.2 ARCH 187 10.4 APPLICATION TO AUSTRALIAN DATA
187 10.4.1 BUSINESS CYCLES 187 10.4.2 FINANCIAL MARKETS 188 10.5
CONCLUSIONS 189 11 GENETIC ALGORITHMS AND TRADING RULES 191 ROBERT
PEREIRA 11.1 TECHNICAL TRADING RULES 193 11.1.1 MOVING AVERAGE RULES 193
11.1.2 RULES BASED ON ORDER STATISTICS 195 11.2 OPTIMISATION PROCEDURES
196 11.2.1 PROBLEM REPRESENTATION 197 11.2.2 OBJECTIVE FUNCTION 198
11.2.3 GENETIC ALGORITHM OPERATIONS 198 11.2.3 THE STEPS INVOLVED IN A
GENETIC ALGORITHM . . . 200 11.3 SHARE MARKET APPLICATION 200 11.3.1 THE
DATA 200 11.3.2 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS 201 11.3.3 SELECTION OF OPTIMAL
PARAMETERS 203 11.3.4 TRADING RULE PARAMETER ESTIMATES 206 11.3.5
OUT-OF-SAMPLE PERFORMANCE 208 11.4 CONCLUSIONS 209 IV NEURAL NETWORK
APPLICATIONS 12 ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS 213 VANCE L. MARTIN AND
CLARENCE TAN 12.1 MODEL SPECIFICATION 214 12.1.1 BASICS AND TERMINOLOGY
214 12.1.2 UNIVARIATE GENERALISATIONS 215 12.1.3 MULTIVARIATE
GENERALISATIONS 217 12.2 ESTIMATION 219 12.2.1 SEARCH METHODS 219 12.2.2
GRADIENT METHODS 221 12.2.3 BACK PROPAGATION 225 X CONTENTS 12.3 TESTING
229 12.3.1 CONSTRUCTION OF TEST STATISTICS 230 12.3.2 MONTE CARLO
RESULTS 232 12.4 RELATIONSHIPS WITH ECONOMETRIC MODELS 235 12.4.1
NONLINEAR TIME SERIES MODELS 235 12.4.2 BINARY CHOICE MODELS 235 12.5 AN
ANN FOREIGN TRADING SYSTEM 236 12.5.1 THE TRADING SYSTEM 236 12.5.2 DATA
AND SPECIFICATION 237 12.5.3 RESULTS 238 12.6 CONCLUSIONS 239 13 AN ANN
MODEL OF THE STOCK MARKET 241 G.C. HIM ANCLP.D. MCNELIS 13.1 DATA:
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND FILTERING 242 13.2 THE LINEAR AUTOREGRESSIVE
MODEL 246 13.3 THE GARCH-M MODEL 248 13.4 THE NEURAL NETWORK MODEL 248
13.5 OUT-OF-SAMPLE FORECASTING 253 13.6 CONCLUSIONS 253 14 EXCHANGE RATE
FORECASTING MODELS 255 VANCE L. MARTIN, EUGENE S. Y. CHOO AND LESLIE TEO
14.1 NONLINEAR FORECASTING MODELS 256 14.1.1 UNIVARIATE MODELS 256
14.1.2 MULTIVARIATE MODELS 260 14.2 STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF THE DATA
261 14.2.1 DESCRIPTION 261 14.2.2 TESTS OF NONLINEARITY 261 14.2.3
RECURRENCE PLOTS 262 14.3 EMPIRICAL COMPARISONS OF MODELS 263 14.3.1
UNIVARIATE RESULTS 263 14.3.2 MULTIVARIATE RESULTS 264 14.4 CONCLUSIONS
264 BIBLIOGRAPHY 267 INDEX 281
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| spelling | Nonlinear economic models cross-sectional, time series and neural network applications ed. by John Creedy ... Cheltenham [u.a.] Elgar 1997 XV, 284 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Econometrische modellen gtt Lineaire modellen gtt Niet-lineaire analyse gtt Tijdreeksen gtt Ökonometrisches Modell Econometric models Nonlinear theories Linear models (Statistics) Nichtlineares mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4127859-8 gnd rswk-swf Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 s Nichtlineares mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4127859-8 s DE-604 Creedy, John 1949- Sonstige (DE-588)124007902 oth SWB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007919760&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Nonlinear economic models cross-sectional, time series and neural network applications Econometrische modellen gtt Lineaire modellen gtt Niet-lineaire analyse gtt Tijdreeksen gtt Ökonometrisches Modell Econometric models Nonlinear theories Linear models (Statistics) Nichtlineares mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4127859-8 gnd Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4127859-8 (DE-588)4132280-0 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Nonlinear economic models cross-sectional, time series and neural network applications |
| title_auth | Nonlinear economic models cross-sectional, time series and neural network applications |
| title_exact_search | Nonlinear economic models cross-sectional, time series and neural network applications |
| title_full | Nonlinear economic models cross-sectional, time series and neural network applications ed. by John Creedy ... |
| title_fullStr | Nonlinear economic models cross-sectional, time series and neural network applications ed. by John Creedy ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nonlinear economic models cross-sectional, time series and neural network applications ed. by John Creedy ... |
| title_short | Nonlinear economic models |
| title_sort | nonlinear economic models cross sectional time series and neural network applications |
| title_sub | cross-sectional, time series and neural network applications |
| topic | Econometrische modellen gtt Lineaire modellen gtt Niet-lineaire analyse gtt Tijdreeksen gtt Ökonometrisches Modell Econometric models Nonlinear theories Linear models (Statistics) Nichtlineares mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4127859-8 gnd Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Econometrische modellen Lineaire modellen Niet-lineaire analyse Tijdreeksen Ökonometrisches Modell Econometric models Nonlinear theories Linear models (Statistics) Nichtlineares mathematisches Modell Ökonometrie Aufsatzsammlung |
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