External finance and adjustment: failure and success in the developing world
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Basingstoke [u.a.]
MacMillan [u.a.]
1997
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schriftenreihe: | International finance and development series
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXVI, 475 S graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0312174721 0333693906 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a External finance and adjustment |b failure and success in the developing world |c ed. by Karel Jansen ... |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Capital movements |z Developing countries | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Investments, Foreign |z Developing countries | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | External Finance and
Adjustment
Failure and Success in the Developing
World
Edited by
Karel Jansen
Associate Professor
Institute of Social Studies, The Hague
and
Rob Vos
Senior Economist
Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC
and
Senior Lecturer
Institute of Social Studies, The Hague
in association with
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES
Contents
List of Tables and Figures xiii
Series Editor s Introduction xix
Editors Preface xxiv
1 International Finance, Growth and Adjustment:
An Introduction 1
Karel Jansen and EVK FitzGerald
1 1 Introduction 1
1 2 Background 8
1 3 The Role of External Capital in Economic Development 11
1 4 Approach of the Study and Summary of Findings IS
141 Methodology 17
142 Comparison to other studies 16
143 Main findings 22
1 5 Outline of the Book 29
Notes 32
2 External Finance and Structural Change 33
Rob Vos
2 1 Introduction 33
2 2 Structure, Markets and Institutions 33
221 The accounting framework 33
222 Structural change 37
223 Savings and income distribution 43
224 Financial development and investment 48
vi External Finance and Adjustment in the Developing World
2 3 External Finance and Economic Structure: Simulation
Results Using MSAF-based CGE Models 57
Notes 61
3 External Shocks and Domestic Adjustment
in the 1970s and 1980s 63
EVK FitzGerald and Khwqja Sarmad
3 1 Exogenous Shocks and Structural Adjustment 63
32A Methodology for Estimating External Shocks and
Domestic Responses 65
3 3 The Nature of the External Shocks Experienced by LDCs 68
3 4 External Shocks and Individual Economies 74
3 5 Domestic Response to External Shock 75
3 6 Conclusions 86
Notes 88
4 External Finance, Investment and Growth 90
Karel Jansen
4 1 Introduction 90
4 2 The Public Sector Loan Boom 95
421 Public sector response to capital inflows:
Theoretical considerations 96
422 Public sector response: A comprehensive view 100
423 Patterns of public sector adjustment:
A mixed experience 102
4 3 Private Investment 110
431 Private investment under structural adjustment 112
432 Private investment in the case study countries 115
4 4 Conclusion 118
Notes 120
Contents vii
5 Incomplete Adjustment: Fiscal Policy, Private
Savings and Current Account Deficits in Mexico
since 1982 121
AngeJhjCalderon-Madrid
5 1 Introduction 1 2 1
5 2 Crisis and Recovery 123
521 Background to the 1982 crisis 123
522 The orthodox stabilization attempts of 1982-87 125
523 Successful heterodox stabilization in 1987-92 129
5 3 Macroeconomic Adjustment Policy During the Stabilization
Programmes 131
531 Fiscal adjustment and debt management 131
532 The problem of speculative attacks on the balance
of payments 135
533 Exchange and interest rate management during the
heterodox programme 138
5 4 Private Sector Behaviour Under the Heterodox Programme 141
541 Current account deficits and fiscal surpluses 141
542 Private savings and the consumption boom 143
543 Private sector portfolio adjustment 144
5 5 The Implications for Macroeconomic Policy 146
Postscript: Determinants of the Exchange Rate Crisis of 1994 148
Notes 153
6 External Shocks and Domestic Adjustment
in Pakistan 157
Khwaja Sarmad
6 1 Introduction 157
62A Historical Perspective 158
Period I (1970-77) 161
Period II (1978-86) 163
Period III (1987-90) 165
6 3 The Links with the Outside World 167
The burden of external debt 172
viii External Finance and Adjustment in the Developing World
6 4 Capital Accounts of Institutional Agents and the
Flow of Funds 173
641 Savings and investment 173
Period I (1970-77) 173
Period Ila (1978-81) 175
Period lib (1982-86) 175
Period III (1987-90) 175
642 Capital flight or net acquisition of external private
assets 176
643 Flow of funds 179
6 5 Conclusion 186
Notes 188
7 The Philippines: Finance Without Development 190
Josef Yap and Rob Vos
7 1 Introduction 190
7 2 External Finance and Growth 192
7 3 Political Economy and Adjustment Policies 198
The 1970-74 Regime 198
The 1975-79 Regime 202
The 1980-82 Regime 205
The 1983-85 Regime 208
The New Regime: 1986-93 210
The political economy of external debt management 214
7 4 Private Sector Adjustment and Emerging Policy Dilemmas 216
Private and public accumulation behaviour 216
Emerging policy dilemmas 222
The fiscal bind and a reassessment of the debt
management strategy 224
7 5 Conclusions 226
On policy effectiveness 226
On the role of external finance 227
Policy implications 229
Notes 232
Contents ix
8 Imports, Investment and Aid in Tanzania 234
Joshua Doriye, Howard White and Marc Wuyts
8 1 Introduction 234
8 2 Capital Inflows to Tanzania 234
8 3 Accounting for Aid in the Tanzanian Economy 237
8 4 Impact of Aid on Economic Development 244
8 5 Policy Changes Under Two Aid Booms 251
8 5 Conclusions 257
Notes 258
9 External Finance and Adjustment in Thailand 260
Karel Jansen
9 1 Introduction 260
9 2 External Shocks 261
9 3 Policy Regimes 271
931 Development strategy 271
932 Adjustment policies 273
933 Policy regimes 285
9 4 Conclusion 293
Notes 298
10 External Dependence, Structural Adjustment
and Development Aid in Sub-Saharan Africa 300
Rolph van der Hoeven
10 1 Introduction 300
10 2 The Continuous Need for External Resources 301
10 3 Trade in the Context of Structural Change 305
10 3 1 African trade during the crisis years 305
10 3 2 Trade policies for structural change 310
10 4 Debt in the Context of Structural Change 313
10 4 1 The growing mountain of debt 313
x External Finance and Adjustment in the Developing World
10 4 2 How much debt reduction is needed in Africa? 315
10 5 Structural Adjustment and Aid Flows 319
10 5 1 The magnitude of aid 319
10 5 2 Effects of aid on development 321
10 5 3 Developmentaid and structural change 325
11 External Finance and Adjustment Policies:
A Comparative General Equilibrium Analysis 327
Rob Vos
11 1 Introduction 327
11 2 Main Characteristics of the Country Models 331
Investment, savings and portfolio behaviour 331
Output and price adjustment and income distribution 335
Policy variables 338
11 3 Model Calibration 339
11 4 Simulation Results 342
Mexico 342
Pakistan 347
The Philippines 351
Thailand 355
11 5 Conclusions 359
Notes 362
1 2 Structural Adjustment and Economic Recovery:
A Comparative Analysis of Economic Policy 365
Karel Jansen
12 1 Introduction 365
12 2 Towards a Framework for Policy Analysis 367
12 2 1 External shocks and adjustment policy 368
12 2 2 External finance and adjustment policy 370
12 2 3 Instruments of adjustment policy 371
12 3 Policy Regimes 380
12 4 Policy Effectiveness 383
The contribution of public sector reform 383
Contents xi
Financial policy and the financing of the public sector
deficit 385
Exchange rate policy and export performance - 388
The role of the private sector 390
12 5^ Conclusion 392
Notes 396
Appendices 397
Al Appendix to Chapter 1
The Country Sample and Country Group Classification 398
A2 Appendix to Chapter 2
A Macroeconomic Social Accounting Framework (MSAF) 400
A3 Appendix to Chapter 3
A Methodology for Estimating Shock and Response 417
The UNCTAD Methodology 417
The Residual 420
Domestic Absorption 422
Notes 423
Al l Appendix to Chapter 11
A CGE Model for the Philippines
Basic Notation 425
Model Equations 426
Supply Demand Balances 427
Price Equation for all Sectors 427
Corporate and Unincorporated Capital 427
Output and Price Adjustment 427
Income Distribution 429
Rates of Return per Type of Asset 430
Accumulation Balances for all Sectors 432
Household Behaviour 434
Private Firm Behaviour 435
Public Enterprise Behaviour 436
Government Accounts 437
Public Financial Institutions 438
Private Financial Institutions 438
Central Bank 439
External Balance 439
xii External Finance and Adjustment in the Developing World
Budget-Constrained Investment Demand 440
Changes in Commodity Stocks 442
Labour Market 443
List of Variables 444
References 450
Index 469
List of Tables and Figures
Tables
2 1 Income growth and structural change 38
2 2 Savings, investment and growth 39
2 3 Income structure and savings rates 44
2 4 Income inequality 46
2 5 Financial development and investment finance (per cent) 52
2 6 Financial development and investment finance (per cent) 54
3 1 External shock by country group 70
3 2 Classification of countries by major shocks ( 1 5 per cent
of GDP) 72
3 3a Decomposition of changes in current account deficit:
Mexico (period averages as percentage of the average
GDP of the end period) 76
3 3b Decomposition of changes in current account deficit:
Pakistan (period averages as percentage of the average
GDP of the end period) 78
3 3c Decomposition of changes in current account deficit:
Philippines (period averages as percentage of the average
GDP of the end period) 79
3 3d Decomposition of changes in current account deficit:
Tanzania (period averages as percentage of the average
GDP of the end period) 80
3 3e Decomposition of changes in current account deficit:
Thailand (period averages as percentage of the average GDP
of the end period) 81
3 4 Domestic reponse to external shock 82
4 1 External finance and domestic accumulation (as percentage
of GDP) 92
4 2 External finance and growth, regression results 94
Xlll
xiv External Finance and Adjustment in the Developing World
4 3 Accumulation balances (as percentage of GDP) 105
4 4 External debt outstanding, by borrowing economic sector,
1982 (percentage distribution) 108
4:5 Private investment, regression results 116
5 1 The flow of fundsj 1964-88 (as percentage of GDP) 126
5 2 Trade liberalization 1985-90 128
5 3 Components of GDP (per cent) 142
6 1 Selected economic indicators for Pakistan (averages) 160
6 2 The balance of payments of Pakistan (period averages)
(US$ millions) 168
6 3 Long-term debt by source (US$ billions) 171
6 4 Capital accounts of the public and private sectors
(period averages, percentage of GDP) 174
6 5 Estimates of the private foreign asset accumulation
(US$ millions) 178
6 6 Gross savings, real investment and net financial investment
of institutional sectors (Rs millions) 181
6 7 Use of financial resources by households and unincorporated
enterprises (percentage distribution) 182
6 8 Consolidated fiscal balances of the federal and provincial
governments (percentage of GDP) 184
7 1 Financial flows to the Philippines: 1970-90 (period averages
in US$ millions) 194
7 2 Philippine external debt, 1970-92 (US$ millions) 194
7 3 Major economic shocks and policy responses in the
Philippines 196
7 4 Selected economic indicators of the Philippines, 1970-92 200
7 5 Philippines: External debt outstanding by borrowing
economic sector (percentage shares) 203
7 6 Central Bank of the Philippines: Income and Outlay
Statement (percentage of GNP) 212
7 7 Philippines: Net savings by institutional agent, 1970-92
(percentage of GNP) 217
7 8 Main determinants of private and public accumulation
behaviour 218
7 9 Philippines: Structure of government expenditure
(percentage share) 225
8 1 Structure of external debt in 1991 236
8 2 Financing of imports of goods and services (percentage of
total imports) 240
List of Tables and Figures xv
8 3 Composition of gross investment (GFCF) 245
8 4 Composition and pattern of output growth, 1967-91
(sector weighted annual growth rates) 246
8 5 Composition of imports, 1967-90 (percentage of total
imports) 250
9 1 Main economic indicators 261
9 2 Sectoral accumulation balances (period averages as
percentage of GDP) 266
9 3 Policy variables, 1970-92 274
10 1 Exports, imports (indexes) and debt service ratios,
sub-Saharan Africa 302
10 2 Major resource flows in sub-Saharan Africa (as percentage
of GDP unless otherwise indicated)
10 3 The changing pattern of African imports 307
10 4 Percentage share of major export items from sub-Saharan
Africa 308
10 5 Real wage trends in manufacturing in sub-Saharan Africa,
1978-end 1980s (1978 = 100) 309
10 6 Debt and debt service obligations for some African countries
(USS millions) 314
10 7 Sub-Saharan African debt (USS billions) 316
10 8 Aid flows to and exports from sub-Saharan Africa
(in current USS millions) 320
11 1 Binding constraints on investment by agent in the base runs
for the CGE models for Mexico, Pakistan, the Philippines
and Thailand 341
Al Country sample 399
A2 1 MSAF (Macroeconomic Social Accounting Framework):
The Concepts 402
A2 2 MSAF - Tanzania 1976 (millions of shillings) 403
A2 3 Macroeconomic Social Accounting Framework for Pakistan,
1984 (billions of rupees) 404
A2 4 MSAF for the Philippines, 1987 406
A2 5 MSAF for Thailand 1989 (billions of baht) 410
A2 6 MSAF for Mexico, 1990 (billions of new pesos) 414
xvi External Finance and Adjustment in the Developing World
Figures
1 1 Net transfers to LDCs, 1970-91 (USS billions) 2
1 2 Net transfers on main types of financial flows to LDCs,
1970-91 (USS billions) 4
2 1a Financial intermediation ratio (M3/M1) 49
2 1b Financial intermediation ratio (M3/GDP) 50
2 2 Model simulation: Effect of increase in capital inflows
(1 per cent of GDP) on total GDP (index; deviation
from baseline) 58
2 3 Model simulation: Effect of increase in capital inflows
(1 per cent of GDP) on total exports (index; deviation
from baseline) 59
2 4 Model simulation: Effect of increase capital inflow
(1 per cent of GDP) on private investment volume
(index; deviation from baseline) 60
3 1 External shocks and domestic spending adjustment, 1983-89
(percentage of GNP) 83
3 2 External shocks and trade ratio adjustment, 1983-89
(percentage of GNP) 83
3 3 External shocks and export penetration, 1983-89
(percentage of GNP) 84
3 4 External shocks and import replacement, 1983-89
(percentage of GNP) 84
4 1 Public sector response model 101
5 1 Fiscal and current account deficits (percentage of GDP) 124
5 2 Public finance indicators (excludes revenue from
privatization) (percentage of GDP) 132
5 3 Interest payments on public debt and the inflation tax
(percentage of GDP) 133
5 4 Consolidated total public debt (includes Central Bank)
(percentage of GDP) 134
5 5 GDP per capita (thousands of new Mexican pesos at
constant prices of 1980) and inflation (percentage) 139
5 6 Exchange rate risk premium (percentage) 140
5 7 Net foreign financial debt and household assets abroad
(USS billions) 144
5 8 Household sector real interest payments to commercial banks
(percentage share of household disposable income) 150
List of Tables and Figures xvii
7 1 Philippines: Public and private investment (billions of
pesos at constant prices of 1985) 221
8 1 Real total inflows, 1970-91 (1987 USS millions) 235
8 2 Aids and imports, 1970-91 (constant 1987 TSh millions) 238
8 3 Capacity to import (indices, 1970 = 100) 241
8 4 Aid and investment, 1970-91 (1987 TShs millions) 242
8 5 Savings and investment rates (ratio to GDP, current prices) 243
8 6 Import volume (constant 1987 TShs thousands) 248
9 1a External finance and the internal gap (percentage of GDP) 263
9 1b External finance and the external gap (percentage of GDP) 264
9 2 Public sector debt (percentage of GDP) 287
9 3 Crowding in or out? (investment ratios as percentage of
GDP) 289
11 1a Mexico: Fiscal adjustment and the exchange rate,
total GDP (index; deviation from baseline) 344
11 1b Mexico: Fiscal adjustment and the exchange rate,
traded-goods GDP (index; deviation from baseline) 344
11 1c Mexico: Fiscal adjustment and the exchange rate, private
fixed investment (volume) (index; deviation from baseline) 345
11 Id Mexico: Fiscal adjustment and the exchange rate, fiscal
balance (percentage of GDP) 345
11 2a Pakistan: Debt relief, fiscal adjustment and the exchange
rate, total GDP (index; deviation from baseline) 348
11 2b Pakistan: Debt relief, fiscal adjustment and the exchange
rate, GDP of traded-goods sector (index; deviation from
baseline) 348
11 2c Pakistan: Debt relief, fiscal adjustment and the exchange
rate, private fixed investment (volume) (index; deviation
from baseline) 349
11 2d Pakistan: Debt relief, fiscal adjustment and the exchange
rate, fiscal balance (percentage of GDP) 349
11 3a Philippines: Debt relief, fiscal adjustment and the exchange
rate, total GDP (index; deviation from baseline) 352
11 3b Philippines: Debt relief, fiscal adjustment and the exchange
rate, traded-goods GDP (index; deviation from baseline) 352
11 3c Philippines: Debt relief, fiscal adjustment and the exchange
rate, private fixed investment (index; deviation from
baseline) 353
11 3d Philippines: Debt relief, fiscal adjustment and the exchange
rate, fiscal balance (percentage of GDP) 353
xviii External Finance and Adjustment in the Developing World
11 4a Thailand: Debt relief, fiscal adjustment and the exchange
rate, total GDP (index; deviation from baseline) 357
511 4b Thailand: Debt relief, fiscal adjustment and the exchange
rate, traded-goods GDP (index; deviation from baseline) 357
11 4c Thailand: Debt relief, fiscal adjustment and the exchange
rate, private fixed investment (index; deviation from
baseline) 358
11 4d Thailand: Debt relief, fiscal adjustment and the exchange
rate, fiscal balance (percentage of GDP) 358
12 1 Real exchange rate (index, 1970 = 100) 374
12 2 Export volume (index, 1970=1) 376
12 3 Inflation rates (CPI, percentage per year) 377
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| edition | 1. publ. |
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| genre | (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Aufsatzsammlung |
| geographic | Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Entwicklungsländer |
| id | DE-604.BV011626022 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:12:58Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0312174721 0333693906 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-007833818 |
| oclc_num | 231709176 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-739 DE-11 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-739 DE-11 DE-188 |
| physical | XXVI, 475 S graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1997 |
| publishDateSearch | 1997 |
| publishDateSort | 1997 |
| publisher | MacMillan [u.a.] |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | International finance and development series |
| spelling | External finance and adjustment failure and success in the developing world ed. by Karel Jansen ... 1. publ. Basingstoke [u.a.] MacMillan [u.a.] 1997 XXVI, 475 S graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier International finance and development series Geschichte 1970-1997 gnd rswk-swf Entwicklungsländer Capital movements Developing countries Investments, Foreign Developing countries Structural adjustment (Economic policy) Developing countries Internationale Kapitalbewegung (DE-588)4162044-6 gnd rswk-swf Internationaler Kapitalmarkt (DE-588)4027402-0 gnd rswk-swf Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 g Internationaler Kapitalmarkt (DE-588)4027402-0 s Geschichte 1970-1997 z DE-604 Internationale Kapitalbewegung (DE-588)4162044-6 s Jansen, Karel Sonstige oth HEBIS Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007833818&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | External finance and adjustment failure and success in the developing world Entwicklungsländer Capital movements Developing countries Investments, Foreign Developing countries Structural adjustment (Economic policy) Developing countries Internationale Kapitalbewegung (DE-588)4162044-6 gnd Internationaler Kapitalmarkt (DE-588)4027402-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4162044-6 (DE-588)4027402-0 (DE-588)4014954-7 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | External finance and adjustment failure and success in the developing world |
| title_auth | External finance and adjustment failure and success in the developing world |
| title_exact_search | External finance and adjustment failure and success in the developing world |
| title_full | External finance and adjustment failure and success in the developing world ed. by Karel Jansen ... |
| title_fullStr | External finance and adjustment failure and success in the developing world ed. by Karel Jansen ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | External finance and adjustment failure and success in the developing world ed. by Karel Jansen ... |
| title_short | External finance and adjustment |
| title_sort | external finance and adjustment failure and success in the developing world |
| title_sub | failure and success in the developing world |
| topic | Entwicklungsländer Capital movements Developing countries Investments, Foreign Developing countries Structural adjustment (Economic policy) Developing countries Internationale Kapitalbewegung (DE-588)4162044-6 gnd Internationaler Kapitalmarkt (DE-588)4027402-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Entwicklungsländer Capital movements Developing countries Investments, Foreign Developing countries Structural adjustment (Economic policy) Developing countries Internationale Kapitalbewegung Internationaler Kapitalmarkt Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007833818&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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