Inside a modern macroeconometric model: a guide to the Murphy model ; with 90 tables
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | German |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Berlin [u.a.]
Springer
1997
|
| Ausgabe: | 2., rev. and enl. ed. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVIII, 455 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 3540631461 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Powell, Alan A. |d 1937- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)115434771 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Inside a modern macroeconometric model |b a guide to the Murphy model ; with 90 tables |c Alan A. Powell ; Christopher W. Murphy. With a contribution by Nicholas Conron |
| 250 | |a 2., rev. and enl. ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Berlin [u.a.] |b Springer |c 1997 | |
| 300 | |a XVIII, 455 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
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| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-007669950 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804125922221096960 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Alan A Powell • Christopher W Murphy
Inside a Modern
Macro econometric
Model
A Guide to the Murphy Model
Second, Revised and Enlarged Edition
With a contribution by
Nicholas Conron
With 107 Figures
and 90 Tables
Springer
CONTENTS
Model-Builder s Preface
Model-Watcher s Preface
vii
ix
Part 1 — Setting the Scene
Chapter 1 How TO USE THIS BOOK
Chapter 2 DISTINGUISHING FEATURES OF MM
2 1 Overview ofMMs relationship to other macro models
(a) Size
(b) Eclecticism
(c) Relationship to macro and micro paradigms
Id) Long-run properties
(e) Specification testing
2 2 Main economic features
(a) Dombusch Model attributes
(b) Long-run optimizing behaviour in production
(c) Feedback effects from assets
Chapter 3 PRINCIPAL MECHANISMS IN MM
3 1 Introduction
3 2 The Mundell-Fleming model
(a) The MF model s equations
(b) Monetary and fiscal policy under flexible
exchange rates in the MF model
3 3 Dombusch s 1976 model
(a) Basic assumptions
(b) Underlying structural model
(c) Partially reducedform
(d) More on the underlying structural model —portfolio balance
(e) Equilibrium exchange rate
(ft Model consistent expectations
(g) The effects of a monetary expansion
under rational expectations
3 4 Insights from 1980s developments in
open-economy macroeconomics
3 5 Synopsis of illustrative simulations with MM
(a) Monetary expansion
(b) The NAIRU and the neoclassical long run
(c) Fiscal policy and public debtfeedback
(d) Private consumption and foreign debtfeedback
(e) Non-Ricardian equivalence
xii Inside A Modem Macroeconometric Model
CHAPTER 3 (continued)
36A highly stylized miniature model of balanced growth (HSM) 58
(a) Main assumptions underlying HSM 58
(b) Production function and resource endowment 63
(c) Capital accumulation and the rate of return;
domestic inflation and exchange rate determination 63
(d) Growth in capital stock, workforce, output and real wages 65
(e) Intertemporal budget constraint 67
(ft Balance of trade 70
(g) Qualitative behaviour of HSM under parameter shifts 71
(h) Growth rates of prices and of nominal and real magnitudes
inHSMandinMM 75
3 7 Conclusions from this chapter 77
Part 2 — Structural Form of MM
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
OVERVIEW OF PART TWO
Introduction
Notation
Nomenclature for equations
Estimation methods, specification searches and
hypothesis testing
(a) General considerations
(b) Data sources
(c) Computing
(d) Estimation methods
(e) Obtaining a preferred equation
(ft Diagnostic testing
Equation count and standard closure for simulations
Brief account of solution method
WAGE BEHAVIOUR
Introduction
Technological change - basic ideas
(a) Numerical example
(b) Factor-augmenting technical change
(c) Efficiency units
The role of Harrod-neutral technical progress in MM
Notation - Variables in wage equation S03
Inflationary expectations augmented Phillips Curve •
— Steady state
Estimated coefficients
LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION
Introduction
• Notation
Finding the underlying trend in the potential size of
the workforce
Labour supply equation S02
Estimated coefficients
Steady state
Encowaaed/discouraaed worker effect
Contents xiii
Chapter 7 PRIVATE CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOUR
7 1 Introduction and notation 117
7 2 Equilibrium consumption—equations S04A 117
7 3 Dynamic disequilibrium consumption equation S04 120
7 4 Steady state 121
7 5 Parameter Estimates 122
Chapter 8 BEHAVIOUR OF THE RENTAL PRICE OF HOUSING
8 1 Introduction and notation 123
8 2 Allocation of consumption into housing rental services
and other 125
8 3 Dwelling rental price dynamics — within sample
— equation SOI 128
8 4 Steady state 130
8 5 Dwelling rental price dynamics —forecast period 130
86 Estimated coefficients 132
8 7 Behavioural identity 103, consumption price index, and
identity 101, definition of real consumption 132
Chapter 9 PRODUCTION OF HOUSING RENTAL SERVICES
AND INVESTMENT IN DWELLINGS
9 1 Introduction 135
9 2 Notation — Levels variables 136
9 3 Notation — Depreciation, interest, growth and inflation rates 137
9 4 Notation — Coefficients 138
9 5 Production of housing rental services — identity 104 138
9 6 The natural real growth rate — identities 171 and 172 139
9 7 Dwelling investment — equation S05 141
— Present value calculation 141
— Expectations of investors in housing stock 142
— Steady state 145
9 8 Estimated coefficients 146
— Estimated risk premium 147
9 9 Some weaknesses of the approach 147
Chapter 10 THE ENTERPRISE PRODUCTION BLOCK OF THE BUSINESS SECTOR
10 1 Introduction 149
10 2 An overview of the production structure of the enterprise economy 150
10 3 Preliminaries on the CES/CETproduction technology 150
— Input-output separability 150
10 4 Lengths of run in MM and in the enterprise production block 155
(a) Introduction
(b) Concepts of length of run
— Short (or Keynesian) run of MM as a whole
— Medium (or classical) run of MM as a whole
— Long (or neoclassical) run of MM as a whole
(c) The medium run of the enterprise production block
(d) Parameter estimation of the medium-run neo-
classical sub-model
(e) The long run of the enterprise production block
(ft Role of the medium-and long-run closures of
the enterprise production block in generating the
long run of MM as a whole
xlv Inside A Modem Macroeconometric Model
Chapter 11
Chapter 12
Chapter 13
Chapter 14
Chapter 15
Chapter 16
Chapter 17
Chapter 18
BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENT
Introduction and notation
Expected present value of the net revenue stream
Tobin s (average) q ratio
Stochastic dynamic investment equation S13
— Steady state
Estimated coefficients
BUSINESS SECTOR EMPLOYMENT
Introduction and notation
Business sector employment equation S10
Steady state
Estimates
IMPORT SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Introduction and notation
Import supply under the small country assumption
Import demand — introduction and notation
Equilibrium import demand equation
Dynamic demand equation for Imports S09
— Steady state
Estimates
Trade-weighted exchange rate index
AGGREGATE EXPORT SUPPLY
Introduction, notation and specification
— Steady state
Estimates
DlSAGGREGATION OF EXPORT SUPPLY
Introduction; notation and specification for export
compositional equation S06; its steady state
Estimates
Supply of other exports
Supply of commodity exports
Price index for aggregate exports
OVERSEAS DEMAND FOR COMMODITY EXPORTS
Introduction and notation
Form of the demand equation
Steady state
Estimates
INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN COMMODITY EXPORTS
Introduction and generic notation; form of the
inventory equations
Inventory investment in commodity exports
(a) Notationfor stochastic inventory equation S07
and accumulation identity 107
(b) Export commodity inventory investment equation SO 7
(c) Estimates
(d) Steady state
DEMAND FOR NON- COMMODITY EXPORTS
Introduction and notation
Form of the demand and flexibility equations
Estimates
Steadu state
Contents xv
Chapter 19 DOMESTIC GOOD INVENTORY INVESTMENT
19 1 Introduction and notation
19 2 Desired stock of non-farm inventories
19 3 Partial adjustment equation
19 4 Estimated coefficients
19 5 Steady state
Chapter 20 PRICE DYNAMICS FOR THE DOMESTIC GOOD
20 1 Introduction, notation and specification
— Steady state
20 2 Estimated coefficients
Chapter 21 SALES OF THE DOMESTIC GOOD; MISCELLANEOUS IDENTITIES
FOR INVESTMENTAND CAPTTAL
21 1 Introduction and notationfor identities 108,109,113 and 144
21 2 Demand for, and sales of, the domestic good
and miscellaneous identities
(a) Demand determination of output of the domestic
good in the very short run
(b) Public-private split of business fixed investment
Chapter 22 THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR
22 1 Introduction
22 2 General government sector spending
22 3 The public sector deficit — identities 135-138 and 145-149
22 4 Public sector portfolio allocation
22 5 Target public debt to GDP ratio and the tax reaction function
(a) The tax reactionfunction 148
(b) Steady state
(c) Calibration
Chapter 23 FINANCIAL MARKETS
23 1 Introduction
23 2 Formation of interest rates — identities 131-133,
115-117,126
(a) Notationfor interest rate formation and uncovered
interest parity
(b) Expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates
(c) Inflation and inflationary expectations
(d) Real 10-year bond rate
(e) Long-run actual rate of return on business fixed capital
(ft Definitions of foreign short- and long-term interest rates
23 3 Uncovered interest parity— identity 127
23 4 Two key exchange rates
23 5 Money demand — equation SI6
(a) Specification and notation
(b) Estimates
23 6 Balance of payments identity 151
Chapter 24 NATIONAL-ACCOUNTING, STOCK-FLOW
AND MISCELLANEOUS IDENTITIES
24 1 Introduction
24 2 National-accounting identities
24 3 Stock-flow Identities
24 4 Lead-lag Identities
24 5 Three definitional identities
APPENDICES TO PART 2
2 1 List of variables in MM
2 2 List of coefficients and parameters in MM
2 3 Classification of MM equations
2 4 Consolidated equation list
2 5 Concordance between original MM notation
for variables and notation used in Part 2
xvl Inside A Modern Macroeconometric Model
Part 3 — Simulations with MM
Chapter 25 INTRODUCTION TO THE SIMULATIONS
25 1 Preamble 303
25 2 Use of miniature models in Part 3 303
25 3 Guide to Chapters 26 and 27 305
Chapter 26 MONETARY SHOCKS
26 1 Introduction and notation 307
26 2 Features shared with the Dombusch model 309
26 3 Overshooting and undershooting exchange rates revisited 311
(a) Inevitability of overshooting in DBM 311
(b) Possible sources of different exchange rate behaviour in
DBM and MM 312
(c) Rigorous definition of undershooting and overshooting
exchange rates 314
(d) Reporting simulation results for the exchange rate as deviations 314
(e) MMs undershooting exchange rate 315
26 4 An extended Dombusch model with inertia 317
(a) Inertia in the IS curve 317
(b) Solution sequence for the extended DBM 318
(c) Form of the lag distributionfor aggregate demand in the
extended DBM 319
(d) Factors responsible for inertia in aggregate demand in MM 321
(e) Solutions of the extended DBM 321
26 5 Detailed analysis of MM responses to a monetary shock 326
(a) Effects on the interest rate via the demandfor money curve 326
(b) Strategy for explaining the path of the exchange rate after
the initial devaluation 328
(c) Simplified price system for MM 328
(d) (Vibrating the simplified price system 332
(e) Explaining short-term interest rate movements 333
(ft Responses of dwelling investment and consumption 334
(g) Responses of business fixed investment 338
26 6 D4M — a descriptive miniature Murphy Model for the
analysis of a monetary shock 339
(a) GNE, the price of the domestic good, and the
interest and exchange rates 339
(b) Calibrating D4M to MM 341
(c) Completing the miniature model the trade account and GDP 345
(d) Extending the coverage qfD4M: investment, imports and
employment 346
26 7 Summary 348
Chapter 27 A FISCAL SHOCK
27 1 The nature of the shock and general introduction 351
27 2 Strategy for constructing a shock-specific miniature 353
27 3 Identifying important initial consequences of the fiscal shock 355
fa; The initial jump in GNE 355
— The jump in consumption 356
— Contribution to GNE of increased general government
employment via labour market and wealth effects in
MMs consumption junction 357
— Direct contributions to GNE of government spending 358
(b) Price behaviour in quarters 1 and 2 following the shock 358
— Regaining our bearings, I 363
27 4 Terminal conditions, I: Insights from HSM 364
Contents xvii
27 5 Terminal conditions, II: S3MM—A stylized steady-state
Murphy Model 366
(a; Introduction to S3MM 366
(b) Sustainability of foreign debt 372
(c) Effects of fiscal expansion in S3MM 375
— Macro comparisons with MM 377
— Increased public consumption 379
— Increased public employment 383
— Regaining our bearings, H 384
27 6 F3M—A fiscal miniature Murphy Model 385
(a) Sfeady-state values for nominal GNE, the price of the
domestic good, and the nominal exchange rate 386
(b) Calibration of F3M 387
27 7 MM s dynamic response 387
(a) Wealth, foreign debt, labour income and consumption 388
— Portfolio changes 390
(b) The real exchange rate and the trade account 391
(c) Investment and GDP 392
(d) Employment 394
27 8 Summary 396
APPENDICES TO PART 3
3 1 Parameter file for MM used in Part 3 397
3 2 Excel spreadsheet used to solve
the Extended Dombusch Model 399
3 3 Values of variables for calculating ratios
in MM s steady state 401
Part 4 — New Horizons
Chapter 28 MM2— A FULLY INTEGRATED MACRO-CGE MODEL
28 1 Introduction 403
28 2 Structure qfMM2 403
(a) Aggregate level 406
(b) Industry level 410
(c) Commodity group level 413
(d) MM2-Demographic and MM2-States 414
(e) Econometric aspects 414
28 3 A monetary contraction—scenario and
monetary policy equation 414
28 4 Macro effects of a monetary contraction 416
25 5 Industry effects of a monetary contraction 420
(a) Production 420
(b) Business investment 422
(c) Adjustment in the manufacturing sector 424
28 6 State effects of a monetary contraction 426
28 7 Summary of the simulations and concluding
policy perspective 428
28 8 Commercial availability ofMM2 software 430
xviii Inside A Modern Macroeconometric Model
REFERENCES 431
AUTHOR AND PERSONAL NAMES INDEX 435
SUBJECT INDEX 437
TABLES 447
FIGURES 450
EXERCISES 454
|
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| author | Powell, Alan A. 1937- Murphy, Christopher W. 1956- |
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| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV011407862 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:09:15Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 3540631461 |
| language | German |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-007669950 |
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| physical | XVIII, 455 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1997 |
| publishDateSearch | 1997 |
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| spelling | Powell, Alan A. 1937- Verfasser (DE-588)115434771 aut Inside a modern macroeconometric model a guide to the Murphy model ; with 90 tables Alan A. Powell ; Christopher W. Murphy. With a contribution by Nicholas Conron 2., rev. and enl. ed. Berlin [u.a.] Springer 1997 XVIII, 455 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd rswk-swf Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 s DE-604 Murphy, Christopher W. 1956- Verfasser (DE-588)11543481X aut HEBIS Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007669950&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Powell, Alan A. 1937- Murphy, Christopher W. 1956- Inside a modern macroeconometric model a guide to the Murphy model ; with 90 tables Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4074486-3 |
| title | Inside a modern macroeconometric model a guide to the Murphy model ; with 90 tables |
| title_auth | Inside a modern macroeconometric model a guide to the Murphy model ; with 90 tables |
| title_exact_search | Inside a modern macroeconometric model a guide to the Murphy model ; with 90 tables |
| title_full | Inside a modern macroeconometric model a guide to the Murphy model ; with 90 tables Alan A. Powell ; Christopher W. Murphy. With a contribution by Nicholas Conron |
| title_fullStr | Inside a modern macroeconometric model a guide to the Murphy model ; with 90 tables Alan A. Powell ; Christopher W. Murphy. With a contribution by Nicholas Conron |
| title_full_unstemmed | Inside a modern macroeconometric model a guide to the Murphy model ; with 90 tables Alan A. Powell ; Christopher W. Murphy. With a contribution by Nicholas Conron |
| title_short | Inside a modern macroeconometric model |
| title_sort | inside a modern macroeconometric model a guide to the murphy model with 90 tables |
| title_sub | a guide to the Murphy model ; with 90 tables |
| topic | Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Makroökonomisches Modell |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007669950&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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