Rational bubbles: theoretical basis, economic relevance, and empirical evidence with a special emphasis on the German stock market
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Abschlussarbeit Buch |
| Sprache: | German |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Berlin [u.a.]
Springer
1997
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems
451 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | IX, 264 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 3540626298 |
Internformat
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| 100 | 1 | |a Salge, Matthias |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Rational bubbles |b theoretical basis, economic relevance, and empirical evidence with a special emphasis on the German stock market |c Matthias Salge |
| 264 | 1 | |a Berlin [u.a.] |b Springer |c 1997 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804125818992984064 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
1 Introduction 1
2 On the Theoretical Derivability of Rational Bubbles 5
2.1 Statistical framework 7
2.2 Rational expectations 12
2.3 Solution procedure 19
2.3.1 Particular solution 21
2.3.1.1 Forward and backward solution 21
2.3.1.2 Explicit particular solutions 24
2.3.1.3 Summary 41
2.3.2 General solution 43
2.4 Bubble processes 48
2.4.1 Markovian bubbles 55
2.4.1.1 Deterministic bubble 55
2.4.1.2 Near random walk bubble 56
2.4.1.3 Bursting bubble 57
2.4.2 Intrinsic bubbles 58
2.4.2.1 Fundamentals as a random walk 59
2.4.2.2 Fundamentals as ARMA processes .... 63
2.4.3 Extrinsic bubbles 69
2.4.4 Theoretical caveats 71
viii
2.4.5 Summary 76
3 On the Economic Relevance of Rational Bubbles 79
3.1 Capital markets 80
3.1.1 Efficient capital markets 86
3.1.2 Rational bubbles on capital markets 93
3.1.3 Economic caveats 103
3.2 Foreign exchange markets 109
3.3 Hyperinflation H7
4 On Testing for Rational Bubbles 123
4.1 Indirect tests 123
4.1.1 Variance bounds tests 124
4.1.2 Specification tests 137
4.1.3 Integration and cointegration tests 140
4.1.4 Final assessment of indirect tests 150
4.1.5 A digression: Charemza, Deadman (1995) analysis . 151
4.2 Direct tests 157
4.2.1 Deterministic bubble in German hyperinflation . . . 158
4.2.2 Intrinsic bubbles on stock markets 163
4.2.3 An econometric caveat 168
4.2.4 Final assessment of direct tests 172
5 On the Explanatory Power of Rational Bubbles on the Ger¬
man Stock Market 175
5.1 Data 175
5.2 Direct test for rational bubbles 181
5.2.1 Temporary Markovian bubbles 184
5.2.2 Temporary intrinsic bubbles 193
ix
5.2.3 Permanent intrinsic bubbles 198
5.3 A digression: Testing for unit roots 204
6 Concluding Remarks 215
A Results 221
A.I Temporary markovian bubbles 221
A.2 Temporary intrinsic bubbles 225
A.3 Permanent intrinsic bubbles Class 1 to 2 229
A.4 Permanent intrinsic bubbles Class 3 to 6 230
A.5 Integration tests 233
A.5.1 Preliminary regression of endogenous processes . . . 233
A.5.2 Preliminary regression of exogenous processes . . . 234
A.5.3 Testing for unit roots in levels 235
A.5.4 Testing for unit roots in logs 240
B Distributional Properties and Critical Values 245
B.I Distributional properties of t statistics 245
B.2 Critical values of t statistics 246
Bibliography 249
List of Figures 263
List of Tables 265
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Salge, Matthias |
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| dewey-ones | 332 - Financial economics |
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| dewey-search | 332.6 332.6 21 |
| dewey-sort | 3332.6 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Thesis Book |
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| spelling | Salge, Matthias Verfasser aut Rational bubbles theoretical basis, economic relevance, and empirical evidence with a special emphasis on the German stock market Matthias Salge Berlin [u.a.] Springer 1997 IX, 264 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems 451 Zugl.: Kiel, Univ., Diss., 1996 Aandelen gtt Actions de sociétés ram Analyse financière ram Anticipations rationnelles, Théorie des ram Investeringen gtt Portfolio-analyse gtt Équilibre (économie politique) ram Investment analysis Rational expectations (Economic theory) Equilibrium (Economics) Stocks -- Germany Kapitalmarkteffizienz (DE-588)4125264-0 gnd rswk-swf Kapitalmarkttheorie (DE-588)4137411-3 gnd rswk-swf Aktienmarkt (DE-588)4130931-5 gnd rswk-swf Kursanomalie (DE-588)4380086-5 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Kursanomalie (DE-588)4380086-5 s Kapitalmarkttheorie (DE-588)4137411-3 s DE-604 Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 g Aktienmarkt (DE-588)4130931-5 s Kapitalmarkteffizienz (DE-588)4125264-0 s Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems 451 (DE-604)BV000000036 451 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007598974&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Salge, Matthias Rational bubbles theoretical basis, economic relevance, and empirical evidence with a special emphasis on the German stock market Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems Aandelen gtt Actions de sociétés ram Analyse financière ram Anticipations rationnelles, Théorie des ram Investeringen gtt Portfolio-analyse gtt Équilibre (économie politique) ram Investment analysis Rational expectations (Economic theory) Equilibrium (Economics) Stocks -- Germany Kapitalmarkteffizienz (DE-588)4125264-0 gnd Kapitalmarkttheorie (DE-588)4137411-3 gnd Aktienmarkt (DE-588)4130931-5 gnd Kursanomalie (DE-588)4380086-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4125264-0 (DE-588)4137411-3 (DE-588)4130931-5 (DE-588)4380086-5 (DE-588)4011882-4 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Rational bubbles theoretical basis, economic relevance, and empirical evidence with a special emphasis on the German stock market |
| title_auth | Rational bubbles theoretical basis, economic relevance, and empirical evidence with a special emphasis on the German stock market |
| title_exact_search | Rational bubbles theoretical basis, economic relevance, and empirical evidence with a special emphasis on the German stock market |
| title_full | Rational bubbles theoretical basis, economic relevance, and empirical evidence with a special emphasis on the German stock market Matthias Salge |
| title_fullStr | Rational bubbles theoretical basis, economic relevance, and empirical evidence with a special emphasis on the German stock market Matthias Salge |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rational bubbles theoretical basis, economic relevance, and empirical evidence with a special emphasis on the German stock market Matthias Salge |
| title_short | Rational bubbles |
| title_sort | rational bubbles theoretical basis economic relevance and empirical evidence with a special emphasis on the german stock market |
| title_sub | theoretical basis, economic relevance, and empirical evidence with a special emphasis on the German stock market |
| topic | Aandelen gtt Actions de sociétés ram Analyse financière ram Anticipations rationnelles, Théorie des ram Investeringen gtt Portfolio-analyse gtt Équilibre (économie politique) ram Investment analysis Rational expectations (Economic theory) Equilibrium (Economics) Stocks -- Germany Kapitalmarkteffizienz (DE-588)4125264-0 gnd Kapitalmarkttheorie (DE-588)4137411-3 gnd Aktienmarkt (DE-588)4130931-5 gnd Kursanomalie (DE-588)4380086-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Aandelen Actions de sociétés Analyse financière Anticipations rationnelles, Théorie des Investeringen Portfolio-analyse Équilibre (économie politique) Investment analysis Rational expectations (Economic theory) Equilibrium (Economics) Stocks -- Germany Kapitalmarkteffizienz Kapitalmarkttheorie Aktienmarkt Kursanomalie Deutschland Hochschulschrift |
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