Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models:
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | German |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York [u.a.]
Springer
1997
|
| Ausgabe: | 2. ed. |
| Schriftenreihe: | Springer series in statistics
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIV, 680 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0387947256 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models |c Mike West ; Jeff Harrison |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804125792583548928 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | MIKE WEST JEFF HARRISON BAYESIAN FORECASTING AND DYNAMIC MODELS SECOND
EDITION WITH 115 ILLUSTRATIONS SPRINGER CONTENTS PREFACE 1 INTRODUCTION
1 1.1 MODELLING, LEARNING AND FORECASTING 1 1.2 FORECAST AND DECISION
SYSTEMS 8 1.3 BAYESIAN MODELLING AND FORECASTING 20 1.4 HISTORICAL
PERSPECTIVE AND BIBLIOGRAPHIC COMMENTS 28 2 INTRODUCTION TO THE DLM 32
2.1 INTRODUCTION 32 2.2 THE DLM AND RECURRENCE RELATIONSHIPS 34 2.3 THE
CONSTANT MODEL 39 2.4 SPECIFICATION OF EVOLUTION VARIANCE W T 49 2.5
UNKNOWN OBSERVATIONAL VARIANCES 51 2.6 ILLUSTRATION 57 2.7 APPENDIX 61
2.8 EXERCISES 61 3 INTRODUCTION TO THE DLM 68 3.1 INTRODUCTION 68 3.2
THE MULTIPLE REGRESSION DLM 73 3.3 DYNAMIC STRAIGHT LINE THROUGH THE
ORIGIN 74 3.4 MODEL VARIANCES AND SUMMARY 83 3.5 EXERCISES 91 4 THE
DYNAMIC LINEAR MODEL 97 4.1 OVERVIEW 97 4.2 DEFINITIONS AND NOTATION 100
4.3 UPDATING EQUATIONS: THE UNIVARIATE DLM 103 4.4 FORECAST
DISTRIBUTIONS 106 4.5 OBSERVATIONAL VARIANCES 108 4.6 SUMMARY 111 4.7
FILTERING RECURRENCES 112 4.8 RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS 116 4.9 LINEAR
BAYES OPTIMALITY 122 4.10 REFERENCE ANALYSIS OF THE DLM 128 4.11
APPENDIX: CONDITIONAL INDEPENDENCE 136 4.12 EXERCISES 138 XII CONTENTS 5
UNIVARIATE TIME SERIES DLM THEORY 143 5.1 UNIVARIATE TIME SERIES DLMS
143 5.2 OBSERVABILITY 143 5.3 SIMILAR AND EQUIVALENT MODELS 148 5.4
CANONICAL MODELS 154 5.5 LIMITING RESULTS FOR CONSTANT MODELS 160 5.6
STATIONARITY 169 5.7 EXERCISES 172 6 MODEL SPECIFICATION AND DESIGN 178
6.1 BASIC FORECAST FUNCTIONS 178 6.2 SPECIFICATION OF F T AND G T 186
6.3 DISCOUNT FACTORS AND COMPONENT MODEL SPECIFICATION 193 6.4 FURTHER
COMMENTS ON DISCOUNT MODELS 200 6.5 EXERCISES 202 7 POLYNOMIAL TREND
MODELS 208 7.1 INTRODUCTION 208 7.2 SECOND-ORDER POLYNOMIAL MODELS 211
7.3 LINEAR GROWTH MODELS 217 7.4 THIRD-ORDER POLYNOMIAL MODELS 225 7.5
EXERCISES 229 8 SEASONAL MODELS 234 8.1 INTRODUCTION 234 8.2 SEASONAL
FACTOR REPRESENTATIONS OF CYCLICAL FUNCTIONS 237 8.3 FORM-FREE SEASONAL
FACTOR DLMS 238 8.4 FORM-FREE SEASONAL EFFECTS DLMS 240 8.5
TREND/FORM-FREE SEASONAL EFFECTS DLMS 244 8.6 FOURIER FORM
REPRESENTATION OF SEASONALITY 246 8.7 EXERCISES 263 9 REGRESSION,
AUTOREGRESSION, AND RELATED MODELS 270 9.1 INTRODUCTION 270 9.2 THE
MULTIPLE REGRESSION DLM 270 9.3 TRANSFER FUNCTIONS 281 9.4 ANNA MODELS
291 9.5 TIME SERIES DECOMPOSITIONS 301 9.6 TIME-VARYING AUTOREGRESSIVE
DLMS 304 9.7 EXERCISES 311 10 11 12 CONTENTS ILLUSTRATIONS AND
EXTENSIONS OF STANDARD DLMS 10.1 INTRODUCTION 10.2 BASIC ANALYSIS: A
TREND/SEASONAL DLM 10.3 A TREND/SEASONAL/REGRESSION DLM 10.4 ERROR
ANALYSIS 10.5 DATA MODIFICATIONS AND IRREGULARITIES 10.6 DATA
TRANSFORMATIONS 10.7 MODELLING VARIANCE LAWS 10.8 STOCHASTIC CHANGES IN
VARIANCE 10.9 EXERCISES INTERVENTION AND MONITORING 11.1 INTRODUCTION
11.2 MODES OF FEED-FORWARD INTERVENTION 11.3 ILLUSTRATIONS 11.4 MODEL
MONITORING 11.5 FEED-BACK INTERVENTION 11.6 A BAYES DECISION APPROACH
TO MODEL MONITORING 11.7 EXERCISES MULTI-PROCESS MODELS 12.1
INTRODUCTION 12.2 MULTI-PROCESS MODELS: CLASS I 12.3 MULTI-PROCESS
MODELS: CLASS II 12.4 CLASS II MIXTURE MODELS ILLUSTRATED 12.5 EXERCISES
XIII 317 317 318 330 345 350 353 357 359 365 369 369 374 383 392 401 415
423 427 427 429 443 456 486 13 NON-LINEAR DYNAMIC MODELS: ANALYTIC AND
NUMERICAL APPROXIMATIONS 489 13.1 INTRODUCTION 489 13.2 LINEARISATION
AND RELATED TECHNIQUES 492 13.3 CONSTANT PARAMETER NON-LINEARITIES:
MULTI-PROCESS MODELS 497 13.4 CONSTANT PARAMETER NON-LINEARITIES:
EFFICIENT NUMERICAL INTEGRATION 499 13.5 EFFICIENT INTEGRATION FOR
GENERAL DYNAMIC MODELS 505 13.6 A FIRST SIMULATION METHOD: ADAPTIVE
IMPORTANCE SAMPLING 509 14 EXPONENTIAL FAMILY DYNAMIC MODELS 516 14.1
INTRODUCTION 516 14.2 EXPONENTIAL FAMILY MODELS 517 XIV CONTENTS 14.3
DYNAMIC GENERALISED LINEAR MODELS 521 14.4 CASE STUDY IN ADVERTISING
AWARENESS 534 14.5 FURTHER COMMENTS AND EXTENSIONS 555 14.5 EXERCISES
558 15 SIMULATION-BASED METHODS IN DYNAMIC MODELS 561 15.2 INTRODUCTION
561 15.2 BASIC MCMC IN DYNAMIC MODELS 565 15.3 STATE-SPACE
AUTOREGRESSION 571 16 MULTIVARIATE MODELLING AND FORECASTING 581 16.1
INTRODUCTION 581 16.2 THE GENERAL MULTIVARIATE DLM 582 16.3 AGGREGATE
FORECASTING 586 16.4 MATRIX NORMAL DLMS 597 16.5 OTHER MODELS AND
RELATED WORK 626 16.6 EXERCISES 627 17 DISTRIBUTION THEORY AND LINEAR
ALGEBRA 631 17.1 DISTRIBUTION THEORY 631 17.2 THE MULTIVARIATE NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION 636 17.3 JOINT NORMAL/GAMMA DISTRIBUTIONS 640 17.4 ELEMENTS
OF MATRIX ALGEBRA 645 BIBLIOGRAPHY 652 INDEX 667
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | West, Mike Harrison, Jeff |
| author_facet | West, Mike Harrison, Jeff |
| author_role | aut aut |
| author_sort | West, Mike |
| author_variant | m w mw j h jh |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV011287612 |
| callnumber-first | Q - Science |
| callnumber-label | QA279 |
| callnumber-raw | QA279.5.W47 1997 |
| callnumber-search | QA279.5.W47 1997 |
| callnumber-sort | QA 3279.5 W47 41997 |
| callnumber-subject | QA - Mathematics |
| classification_rvk | QH 233 SK 830 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)247048563 (DE-599)BVBBV011287612 |
| dewey-full | 519.5/520 519.55 |
| dewey-hundreds | 500 - Natural sciences and mathematics |
| dewey-ones | 519 - Probabilities and applied mathematics |
| dewey-raw | 519.5/5 20 519.55 |
| dewey-search | 519.5/5 20 519.55 |
| dewey-sort | 3519.5 15 220 |
| dewey-tens | 510 - Mathematics |
| discipline | Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 2. ed. |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV011287612 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:07:11Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0387947256 |
| language | German |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-007580434 |
| oclc_num | 247048563 |
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| owner_facet | DE-703 DE-706 DE-521 |
| physical | XIV, 680 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1997 |
| publishDateSearch | 1997 |
| publishDateSort | 1997 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Springer series in statistics |
| spelling | West, Mike Verfasser aut Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models Mike West ; Jeff Harrison 2. ed. New York [u.a.] Springer 1997 XIV, 680 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Springer series in statistics Bayesian statistical decision theory Linear models (Statistics) Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd rswk-swf Bayes-Verfahren (DE-588)4204326-8 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Dynamisches Modell (DE-588)4150932-8 gnd rswk-swf Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Bayes-Verfahren (DE-588)4204326-8 s Dynamisches Modell (DE-588)4150932-8 s DE-604 Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 s Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 s 1\p DE-604 Harrison, Jeff Verfasser aut GBV Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007580434&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | West, Mike Harrison, Jeff Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models Bayesian statistical decision theory Linear models (Statistics) Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Bayes-Verfahren (DE-588)4204326-8 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Dynamisches Modell (DE-588)4150932-8 gnd Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4358095-6 (DE-588)4204326-8 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4150932-8 (DE-588)4144220-9 (DE-588)4138606-1 |
| title | Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models |
| title_auth | Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models |
| title_exact_search | Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models |
| title_full | Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models Mike West ; Jeff Harrison |
| title_fullStr | Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models Mike West ; Jeff Harrison |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models Mike West ; Jeff Harrison |
| title_short | Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models |
| title_sort | bayesian forecasting and dynamic models |
| topic | Bayesian statistical decision theory Linear models (Statistics) Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Bayes-Verfahren (DE-588)4204326-8 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Dynamisches Modell (DE-588)4150932-8 gnd Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bayesian statistical decision theory Linear models (Statistics) Prognoseverfahren Bayes-Verfahren Prognose Dynamisches Modell Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie Entscheidungstheorie |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007580434&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT westmike bayesianforecastinganddynamicmodels AT harrisonjeff bayesianforecastinganddynamicmodels |