The edge of chaos: financial booms, bubbles, crashes and chaos
Gespeichert in:
1. Verfasser: | |
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Format: | Buch |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
Chichester [u.a.]
Wiley
1997
|
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Publisher description Table of Contents Inhaltsverzeichnis |
Beschreibung: | XX, 392 S. |
ISBN: | 0471972371 0471969079 |
Internformat
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100 | 1 | |a Cohen, Bernice |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
245 | 1 | 0 | |a The edge of chaos |b financial booms, bubbles, crashes and chaos |c Bernice Cohen |
264 | 1 | |a Chichester [u.a.] |b Wiley |c 1997 | |
300 | |a XX, 392 S. | ||
336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
648 | 7 | |a Geschichte 1700-1997 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf | |
650 | 4 | |a Bourse - Histoire | |
650 | 4 | |a Chaos | |
650 | 7 | |a Chaos (théorie des systèmes) |2 ram | |
650 | 7 | |a Chaos |2 gtt | |
650 | 7 | |a Crises boursières - Histoire |2 ram | |
650 | 4 | |a Crises financières - Histoire | |
650 | 7 | |a Economische crises |2 gtt | |
650 | 7 | |a Financiën |2 gtt | |
650 | 4 | |a Krachs - Histoire | |
650 | 4 | |a Spéculation - Histoire | |
650 | 7 | |a Spéculation - Histoire |2 ram | |
650 | 4 | |a Geschichte | |
650 | 4 | |a Financial crises -- History | |
650 | 4 | |a Stock exchanges -- History | |
650 | 4 | |a Speculation -- History | |
650 | 4 | |a Chaotic behavior in systems | |
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adam_text | CONTENTS
Acknowledgements xi
Preface xiii
Introduction Crashes in Context xv
Consistent patterns of behaviour in crashes. The
purpose of this book. Study the past. An era of
rapid financial and monetary freedom.
Part I Setting the Scene 1
Chapter 1 A Cascade of Crashes 3
Evocative terminology for crashes. A model for
stock market extremes. Do rational markets boom?
Chaos in our universe. After the boom, the crash.
Anatomy of a crash. A brief historical overview of
some major crashes. Dutch Tulipomania, the 1720
bubbles in the Mississippi and South Sea Com¬
panies. Twentieth century crashes; 1929, 1987 and
tempestuous weather. The chain reaction crash.
The Japanese bubble (1982 92). A Chinese footnote.
The global bond market bubble of 1993 4. The
crash mentality.
Chapter 2 The Search for the Irrational Investor 35
Investor types. Introducing the irrational investor.
Jekyll and Hyde investors. They got it right: they
got it wrong. The basis for rational behaviour. The
viii CONTENTS
real stress factor. People don t change, but circum¬
stances do.
Chapter 3 Chaos Rules 63
So what is chaos? The science of complexity. At the
edge of chaos. Confronting the chaos world. The
logic of applying chaos theory to crashes. The ran¬
domness red herring. Nature s rule book. Linear
and nonlinear systems. Holism in stock markets.
The order/disorder mixture. Positive feedback.
The Butterfly Effect. Financial butterflies. Irregular
cycles.
Chapter 4 Profitable Chaos 94
Secret structures. Fractals tell the story. The techni¬
cal route. The fundamental route. Financial fractals
(charts). Self similarity. Triple links in the crash
scenario. Moving averages. Identifying major turn¬
ing points. Financial markets as damped, driven
systems. Beneficial trends. Profiting from structure.
Gains on the edge of chaos. Financial pumps. Pat¬
terns that fail. Using the charts.
Chapter 5 The Chaos Route to Profits 125
Phase transitions in chaos. Sand piles and chaos in
human societies. Phase transitions for investors.
Criticality. Is there a market strange attractor? Be¬
havioural changes in the index. Anti chaos after the
crash. Capitalise on chaos.
Part II The Bubbles of 1720 145
Chapter 6 The Build up to the Bubbles 147
The political dimension. Special conditions in
France. The origins of the 1720 bubbles. Links be¬
tween the two bubbles. Special conditions in Eng¬
land. The concepts behind Law s System. Unique
aspects of the South Sea scheme. Differences be¬
tween the South Sea and Mississippi bubbles.
CONTENTS ix
Chapter 7 Mississippi Madness 169
Law s legacy. The scheme is launched. The boom
takes off. The System at its peak. The objectives of
Law s System. The beginning of the end. The
knock out blow. Reconstruction begins. Mississippi
chaos.
Chapter 8 The South Sea Fiasco 201
Founding the company. The conversion scheme is
hatched. The scheme takes off. Fuelling the boom.
Rising expectations. The bubble companies explo¬
sion. The mania spreads. The South Sea Bubble at
the peak. Accolades for fraudsters. The beginning
of the end. The trigger for collapse. South Sea
chaos.
Chapter 9 The Aftermath 232
Dog days for both bubble companies. Mississippi
winners and losers. Mississippi downfall and debt
deflation. South Sea Company s struggle to survive
and debt deflation depression follows the boom.
Chaos in the collapse. Self organisation for the
reconstruction.
Part III Modern Bubbles and Crashes 251
Chapter 10 1929 And All That 253
Optimism in 1922. The trigger. The easy credit lure.
The boom accelerates. Nonlinearity, the geared
route to super profits. The leverage pyramid. Wall
Street at the peak. Early nagging doubts. Wall
Street butterflies. The downturn arrives. The great
collapse. Debt deflation Wall Street fall out. The
slow reconstruction begins.
Chapter 11 1987 The Global Crash 280
Background to the crash. Recession preceeds the
boom. The Japanese export miracle. The trigger.
American liberalisation. Low oil prices fuel the
boom. Ignoring the warning signs. The boom accel¬
erates. The property bubble. The financial pump.
X CONTENTS
The speculation mania. Imaginative new trading
ideas. Fraudsters galore. The pinnacle in sight. The
world economy at the peak. The technical view at
the peak. Nagging doubts. The flood of selling. The
aftermath.
Chapter 12 Japanese Bubbles 311
Rising from the ashes. Build up to the boom. The
Japanese financial pump. The boom accelerates. In¬
novative investment instruments. Japanese frauds¬
ters aplenty. Property price madness. The boom
leads to the bust. Dog days for Japan. Fall out from
the bubble. Reorganisation attempts Japanese
style. A savage case of debt deflation. Time to
knuckle down to national recovery.
Chapter 13 Bonds, Bears and Butterflies 335
The devastation of the bubble. Build up to the 1993
bond bubble. A trigger ignites the boom. Easy
credit and the financial pump. Innovative new
techniques. Mass participation at the peak. Early
nagging doubts. The Greenspan Butterfly Effect.
The selling stampede. Unwinding the bubble. A
batch of bubbles. Spotting the bubble building
signals.
Chapter 14 An Alphabet Alert 352
Profit from the boom. Recognise the turning point.
How to recognise a coming collapse. Important
advance indicators. The bond relationships. The
symptoms of economic distress. Checklist for emer¬
ging bubbles. Missing pieces of the jig saw. Early
nagging doubts. The crash of crashes scenario. Vi¬
tal clues from past mistakes. A summary of signals
an alphabet alert.
Bibliography 379
Index 383
|
any_adam_object | 1 |
author | Cohen, Bernice |
author_facet | Cohen, Bernice |
author_role | aut |
author_sort | Cohen, Bernice |
author_variant | b c bc |
building | Verbundindex |
bvnumber | BV011256127 |
callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
callnumber-label | HB3722 |
callnumber-raw | HB3722.C64 1997 |
callnumber-search | HB3722.C64 1997 |
callnumber-sort | HB 43722 C64 41997 |
callnumber-subject | HB - Economic Theory and Demography |
classification_rvk | QK 100 QK 650 |
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dewey-ones | 338 - Production |
dewey-raw | 338.542 338.5/42 20 |
dewey-search | 338.542 338.5/42 20 |
dewey-sort | 3338.542 |
dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
era | Geschichte 1700-1997 gnd |
era_facet | Geschichte 1700-1997 |
format | Book |
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indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:06:39Z |
institution | BVB |
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language | English |
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publisher | Wiley |
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spelling | Cohen, Bernice Verfasser aut The edge of chaos financial booms, bubbles, crashes and chaos Bernice Cohen Chichester [u.a.] Wiley 1997 XX, 392 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Geschichte 1700-1997 gnd rswk-swf Bourse - Histoire Chaos Chaos (théorie des systèmes) ram Chaos gtt Crises boursières - Histoire ram Crises financières - Histoire Economische crises gtt Financiën gtt Krachs - Histoire Spéculation - Histoire Spéculation - Histoire ram Geschichte Financial crises -- History Stock exchanges -- History Speculation -- History Chaotic behavior in systems Börsenkrach (DE-588)4195388-5 gnd rswk-swf Krise (DE-588)4033203-2 gnd rswk-swf Finanzwirtschaft (DE-588)4017214-4 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte (DE-588)4020517-4 gnd rswk-swf Börsenkrach (DE-588)4195388-5 s Geschichte (DE-588)4020517-4 s DE-604 Finanzwirtschaft (DE-588)4017214-4 s Krise (DE-588)4033203-2 s Geschichte 1700-1997 z http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/wiley036/96034241.html Publisher description http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/onix07/96034241.html Table of Contents HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007556218&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
spellingShingle | Cohen, Bernice The edge of chaos financial booms, bubbles, crashes and chaos Bourse - Histoire Chaos Chaos (théorie des systèmes) ram Chaos gtt Crises boursières - Histoire ram Crises financières - Histoire Economische crises gtt Financiën gtt Krachs - Histoire Spéculation - Histoire Spéculation - Histoire ram Geschichte Financial crises -- History Stock exchanges -- History Speculation -- History Chaotic behavior in systems Börsenkrach (DE-588)4195388-5 gnd Krise (DE-588)4033203-2 gnd Finanzwirtschaft (DE-588)4017214-4 gnd Geschichte (DE-588)4020517-4 gnd |
subject_GND | (DE-588)4195388-5 (DE-588)4033203-2 (DE-588)4017214-4 (DE-588)4020517-4 |
title | The edge of chaos financial booms, bubbles, crashes and chaos |
title_auth | The edge of chaos financial booms, bubbles, crashes and chaos |
title_exact_search | The edge of chaos financial booms, bubbles, crashes and chaos |
title_full | The edge of chaos financial booms, bubbles, crashes and chaos Bernice Cohen |
title_fullStr | The edge of chaos financial booms, bubbles, crashes and chaos Bernice Cohen |
title_full_unstemmed | The edge of chaos financial booms, bubbles, crashes and chaos Bernice Cohen |
title_short | The edge of chaos |
title_sort | the edge of chaos financial booms bubbles crashes and chaos |
title_sub | financial booms, bubbles, crashes and chaos |
topic | Bourse - Histoire Chaos Chaos (théorie des systèmes) ram Chaos gtt Crises boursières - Histoire ram Crises financières - Histoire Economische crises gtt Financiën gtt Krachs - Histoire Spéculation - Histoire Spéculation - Histoire ram Geschichte Financial crises -- History Stock exchanges -- History Speculation -- History Chaotic behavior in systems Börsenkrach (DE-588)4195388-5 gnd Krise (DE-588)4033203-2 gnd Finanzwirtschaft (DE-588)4017214-4 gnd Geschichte (DE-588)4020517-4 gnd |
topic_facet | Bourse - Histoire Chaos Chaos (théorie des systèmes) Crises boursières - Histoire Crises financières - Histoire Economische crises Financiën Krachs - Histoire Spéculation - Histoire Geschichte Financial crises -- History Stock exchanges -- History Speculation -- History Chaotic behavior in systems Börsenkrach Krise Finanzwirtschaft |
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