Red flag over Hong Kong:
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Chatham, NJ
Chatham House Publ.
1996
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XI, 196 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 1566430410 1566430402 |
Internformat
MARC
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|---|---|---|---|
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Red flag over Hong Kong |c Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ; David Newman ; Alvin Rabushka |
| 264 | 1 | |a Chatham, NJ |b Chatham House Publ. |c 1996 | |
| 300 | |a XI, 196 S. |b Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Politik | |
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| 651 | 4 | |a China |x Politics and government |y 1976-2002 |x Forecasting | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Hong Kong (China) |x Politics and government |x Forecasting | |
| 651 | 7 | |a China |0 (DE-588)4009937-4 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf | |
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| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-007412026 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804125555815088128 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface, ix
Part One
Background to Hong Kong
1. To Go or Stay? 3
The Last Fifteen Years, 6
Mass Emigration, 7
A Preview—China after Deng. 8
Coming Attraction—Hong Kong after Deng, 10
The Economy, 11; Political Freedom, 11; Other
Concerns, 13
2. An Overview of Hong Kong 17
Demography, 17
Economic Policies, 18
Private Enterprise, 20
The Rule of Law, 21
Prosperity, 24
In the Context of History, 26
Ensuring the Future, 30
3. The Sweet and Sour of China 3 5
A Transformed Economy, 37
Political Reforms in Hong Kong, 40
Summary, 44
In the Context of History, 45
4. Words Have Meaning—or Do They? 49
Mao s Legacy, 50
Economics Takes Command, 54
The Legal Issues, 5 5
The Future of Hong Kong Government, 59
The Executive, 59; The Legislature, 61; The Judiciary, 62;
The Civil Service, 64; Human Rights, 65
v
1 AKl 1WU
Forecasting the Future
5. China after Deng 9
Method of Analysis, 70
Policy Satisfaction vs. Political Satisfaction, 72
Practical Applications, 81
Modern China, 82
The Military, 93; Economic Reform, 96
Hong Kong s Autonomy, 98
6. The Future of Hong Kong 101
Freedom in the New Hong Kong, 101
Freedom of the Press, 102; Judicial Freedom, 105;
Academic Freedom, 109; Free Elections, in;
A Free Market, 114
The Level of Autonomy, 117
7. Fortune Cookies 12.1
General Warning Signals, 123
Economic Flashpoints, 129
The Hong Kong Dollar, 129; Pensions, 133; Property, 133;
Unemployment, 136; Antiques, 136; Corruption,
Cronyism, and Favoritism, 137
Political Reforms, 138
Appendixes
A. Joint Declaration of the Government of the United Kingdom 143
of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government
of the People s Republic of China on the Question of
Hong Kong
Annex I. Elaboration by the Government of the People s
Republic of China of Its Basic Policies Regarding
Hong Kong, 147
Annex II. The Sino British Joint Liaison Group, 158
Annex III. Land Leases, 160
Memoranda (To Be Exchanged Between the Two Sides), 163
B. The Forecasting Model and Its Track Record 165
The Logic of the Model, 165
Perceptual Analysis, 170
How Can the Model Be Estimated? 181
Model Output, 182
Table B.i. Data Inputs, 183
Sample of Published Predictions, 187
Index 191
Figures
5.1 The tradeoff between policy satisfaction and political 76
satisfaction
5.2 The indifference curve 77
5.3 Different values along the indifference curve 78
5.4 The shape of the indifference curve 79
5.5 Regionalist centrist competition in China 87
5.6 Regionalization of China. Indifference curves: Jiang 89
Zemin, Li Peng
5.7 Political polarization in China 9°
5.8 Political polarization in the United States 9°
5.9 Regionalism or centrism in China? A dynastic transition 91
5.10 Future role of the PL A 95
5.11 Future of economic reform 97
5.12 Turmoil and Hong Kong s autonomy 99
6.1 Press freedom without foreign pressure 104
6.2 Press freedom with foreign pressure 104
6.3 Judicial independence without foreign pressure 106
6.4 Judicial independence with foreign pressure 106
6.5 Will elections be free? 111
6.6 Autonomy for Hong Kong 118
B.i Expectations and predicted relations between players 177
viii
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce 1946- Newman, David Rabushka, Alvin 1940- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)137424914 (DE-588)120536080 |
| author_facet | Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce 1946- Newman, David Rabushka, Alvin 1940- |
| author_role | aut aut aut |
| author_sort | Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce 1946- |
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| dewey-ones | 303 - Social processes |
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| discipline | Rechtswissenschaft Soziologie |
| format | Book |
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| geographic | China Politics and government 1976-2002 Forecasting Hong Kong (China) Politics and government Forecasting China (DE-588)4009937-4 gnd Hongkong (DE-588)4025822-1 gnd |
| geographic_facet | China Politics and government 1976-2002 Forecasting Hong Kong (China) Politics and government Forecasting China Hongkong |
| id | DE-604.BV011066317 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:03:26Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1566430410 1566430402 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-007412026 |
| oclc_num | 34079924 |
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| owner | DE-12 DE-739 DE-706 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-739 DE-706 |
| physical | XI, 196 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| publishDate | 1996 |
| publishDateSearch | 1996 |
| publishDateSort | 1996 |
| publisher | Chatham House Publ. |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce 1946- Verfasser (DE-588)137424914 aut Red flag over Hong Kong Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ; David Newman ; Alvin Rabushka Chatham, NJ Chatham House Publ. 1996 XI, 196 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Politik Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Zukunft (DE-588)4068097-6 gnd rswk-swf Politik (DE-588)4046514-7 gnd rswk-swf Politisches System (DE-588)4046584-6 gnd rswk-swf China Politics and government 1976-2002 Forecasting Hong Kong (China) Politics and government Forecasting China (DE-588)4009937-4 gnd rswk-swf Hongkong (DE-588)4025822-1 gnd rswk-swf Hongkong (DE-588)4025822-1 g Politisches System (DE-588)4046584-6 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 Zukunft (DE-588)4068097-6 s Politik (DE-588)4046514-7 s China (DE-588)4009937-4 g Newman, David Verfasser aut Rabushka, Alvin 1940- Verfasser (DE-588)120536080 aut HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007412026&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce 1946- Newman, David Rabushka, Alvin 1940- Red flag over Hong Kong Politik Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Zukunft (DE-588)4068097-6 gnd Politik (DE-588)4046514-7 gnd Politisches System (DE-588)4046584-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4068097-6 (DE-588)4046514-7 (DE-588)4046584-6 (DE-588)4009937-4 (DE-588)4025822-1 |
| title | Red flag over Hong Kong |
| title_auth | Red flag over Hong Kong |
| title_exact_search | Red flag over Hong Kong |
| title_full | Red flag over Hong Kong Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ; David Newman ; Alvin Rabushka |
| title_fullStr | Red flag over Hong Kong Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ; David Newman ; Alvin Rabushka |
| title_full_unstemmed | Red flag over Hong Kong Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ; David Newman ; Alvin Rabushka |
| title_short | Red flag over Hong Kong |
| title_sort | red flag over hong kong |
| topic | Politik Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Zukunft (DE-588)4068097-6 gnd Politik (DE-588)4046514-7 gnd Politisches System (DE-588)4046584-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Politik Prognose Zukunft Politisches System China Politics and government 1976-2002 Forecasting Hong Kong (China) Politics and government Forecasting China Hongkong |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007412026&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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