How many people can the earth support?:
Past attempts to answer this question have ranged widelyfrom less than 1 billion to more than 1,000 billion - one sign that there is no single right answer. More than half of the estimates, however, fall within a much narrower range: between 4 billion and 16 billion. In any case, with the world popu...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York [u.a.]
Norton
1995
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. ed. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | Past attempts to answer this question have ranged widelyfrom less than 1 billion to more than 1,000 billion - one sign that there is no single right answer. More than half of the estimates, however, fall within a much narrower range: between 4 billion and 16 billion. In any case, with the world population now at 5.7 billion, and increasing by approximately 90 million per year, we have clearly entered a zone where limits on the human carrying capacity of the Earth have been anticipated, and may well be encountered In this penetrating analysis of one of the most crucial questions of our time, a leading scholar in the field reviews the history of world population growth and gives a refreshingly frank appraisal of what little can be known about its future. In the process, he offers the most comprehensive account yet available of how various people have tried to estimate the planet's human carrying capacity. Few contemporary writers have addressed the issue of world population growth in such a balanced, objective way, without using it as a pretext to advance a prior political agenda |
| Beschreibung: | X, 532 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 0393038629 |
Internformat
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| 100 | 1 | |a Cohen, Joel E. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a How many people can the earth support? |c Joel E. Cohen |
| 250 | |a 1. ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a New York [u.a.] |b Norton |c 1995 | |
| 300 | |a X, 532 S. |b graph. Darst., Kt. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
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| 520 | 3 | |a Past attempts to answer this question have ranged widelyfrom less than 1 billion to more than 1,000 billion - one sign that there is no single right answer. More than half of the estimates, however, fall within a much narrower range: between 4 billion and 16 billion. In any case, with the world population now at 5.7 billion, and increasing by approximately 90 million per year, we have clearly entered a zone where limits on the human carrying capacity of the Earth have been anticipated, and may well be encountered | |
| 520 | |a In this penetrating analysis of one of the most crucial questions of our time, a leading scholar in the field reviews the history of world population growth and gives a refreshingly frank appraisal of what little can be known about its future. In the process, he offers the most comprehensive account yet available of how various people have tried to estimate the planet's human carrying capacity. Few contemporary writers have addressed the issue of world population growth in such a balanced, objective way, without using it as a pretext to advance a prior political agenda | ||
| 650 | 7 | |a Bevolkingsdruk |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population - Aspect économique | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population - Densité | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Prévision démographique | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population density | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population |x Economic aspects | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804125305841909760 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Part 1 INTRODUCTION 3
1 Between Choices and Constraints 5
In the beginning • Problems • Themes of the book • How
the book is organized • Numbers and the Law of Information
Part 2 PAST HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH 23
2 Four Evolutions in Population Growth 25
Population growth is less like it used to be than it ever has been
before • An overview of four evolutions in human population
growth
3 People Control the Growth of Nonhuman Populations 32
The local agricultural evolution: 8000 B.C. 4000 B.C. • The
global agricultural evolution: 1650 1850
4 People Control the Growth of Human Populations 46
The demographic transition • The public health evolution:
1945 now • The fertility evolution: 1785 ? • Unintended
effects: the Law of Action
5 Human Population History in Numbers and Graphs 76
Quantitative estimates of population size and growth rates •
Did the global population growth rate increase at each evolution?
• A picture album of human population growth
6 The Uniqueness of the Present Relative to the Past 91
Aging • The command of energy • Urbanization • Mixing
• Ten thousand years: a glance backward and forward
Part 3 FUTURE HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH 107
7 Projection Methods: The Hazy Crystal Ball 109
The future is unlike the past because it has not happened yet •
Mathematical extrapolations • The cohort component method •
Stochastic population projection • System models • How suc¬
cessful have past projections been? • Confidence: the Law of
Prediction
i/iii Contents
8 Scenarios of Future Population 136
Constant fertility • Instantaneous replacement level fertility •
Sensitivity analyses by the United Nations • Other long term
projections • Will today s poor countries experience a fertility
transition?
9 What Do We Know for Sure about the Future of Global
Population? 153
Uncertainty • Zero population growth • Momentum •
Methuselah s choice
Part 4 THE HUMAN CARRYING CAPACITY
OF THE EARTH 159
10 Eight Estimates of Human Carrying Capacity 161
Lands of the globe still available for European settlement
(1891) • The chief problem of physical anthropogeography
(1925) • The potential productivity of Earth and the popula¬
tion it could support (1967) • Optimum world population
(1970) • The resources available for agriculture (1976) •
Population growth and land use (1977) • Potential population
supporting capacities of lands in the developing world (1983) •
The population potentially supported by the primary food
supply (1991)
11 Estimates of Human Carrying Capacity: A Survey of Four
Centuries 212
Estimates of global human carrying capacity: levels • Estimates
of human carrying capacity: methods • Local estimates of human
carrying capacity • Verbal definitions of human carrying capacity
• Conclusions
12 Carrying Capacity in Ecology and Applied Ecology 237
Concepts of carrying capacity in basic ecology • Concepts of
carrying capacity in applied ecology • Can ecological concepts
of carrying capacity serve for humans?
13 Human Choices 261
Typical level of material well being • Distribution of material
well being • Technology • Domestic and international politi¬
cal institutions * Domestic and international economic arrange¬
ments • Domestic and international demographic arrangements
• Physical, chemical and biological environments • Variability
or stability • Risk or robustness • Time horizon • Fashions,
tastes, and moral values
Contents ix
14 Water: A Case Study of Natural Constraints 297
How much water is available? • How much water is required?
• How many people can the Earth s water support? • How
does water connect with other constraints? • Is water a limiting
factor for human population? • How could radical developments
affect water supplies? • Freshwater overview
15 Natural Constraints and Time 329
How can natural constraints be organized? • A tale of time •
Time constraints in energy • Time constraints in agriculture •
Time constraints in mineral resources • Time constraints in bio¬
logical diversity • Time constraints in infectious disease: Will
AIDS solve the population problem? • Time constraints in pop¬
ulation growth • Natural constraints, time, ingenuity, and
organizational complexity
16 Human Carrying Capacity: An Overview 356
Case study: Easter Island • Living in the land of lost illusions:
human carrying capacity as an indicator • Beyond equilibrium
Part 5 CONCLUSION:
HUMAN CARING CAPACITY 365
17 Entering the Zone 361
Recapitulation • Dealing with population problems: bigger pie;
fewer forks; better manners • How to slow human population
growth • Questions
18 Looking Beyond the Next Hill: Some Suggestions 380
Institutions to reconcile efficiency and equality • Accounting •
Research on population, culture, economics and environment •
Mutual aid • Improving the art of living
Appendices 399
1 Conversion ratios 399
2 Estimates of past human population sizes (millions) 400
3 Estimates of how many people the Earth can support (in
chronological order) 402
4 Verbal definitions of human carrying capacity (in chronological
order) 419
5 Human daily dietary energy: biological requirements and
socioeconomic demand 426
x Contents
6 Mathematical cartoons of human population size and carrying
capacity 429
Adult entertainment • The limit of Malthus meets the progress
ofCondorcet • Continuous time model of Malthus and
Condorcet • Discrete time model of Malthus and Condorcet •
Malthus and Condorcet meet John Stuart Mill • Morals of the
story
Notes 447
Bibliography 481
Selected References 481
References 481
Acknowledgments 505
Index 507
|
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| discipline | Soziologie Wirtschaftswissenschaften Geographie |
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| spelling | Cohen, Joel E. Verfasser aut How many people can the earth support? Joel E. Cohen 1. ed. New York [u.a.] Norton 1995 X, 532 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Past attempts to answer this question have ranged widelyfrom less than 1 billion to more than 1,000 billion - one sign that there is no single right answer. More than half of the estimates, however, fall within a much narrower range: between 4 billion and 16 billion. In any case, with the world population now at 5.7 billion, and increasing by approximately 90 million per year, we have clearly entered a zone where limits on the human carrying capacity of the Earth have been anticipated, and may well be encountered In this penetrating analysis of one of the most crucial questions of our time, a leading scholar in the field reviews the history of world population growth and gives a refreshingly frank appraisal of what little can be known about its future. In the process, he offers the most comprehensive account yet available of how various people have tried to estimate the planet's human carrying capacity. Few contemporary writers have addressed the issue of world population growth in such a balanced, objective way, without using it as a pretext to advance a prior political agenda Bevolkingsdruk gtt Population - Aspect économique Population - Densité Prévision démographique Population density Population forecasting Population Economic aspects Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 gnd rswk-swf Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 gnd rswk-swf Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 s Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007230890&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Cohen, Joel E. How many people can the earth support? Bevolkingsdruk gtt Population - Aspect économique Population - Densité Prévision démographique Population density Population forecasting Population Economic aspects Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 gnd Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4129300-9 (DE-588)4125901-4 |
| title | How many people can the earth support? |
| title_auth | How many people can the earth support? |
| title_exact_search | How many people can the earth support? |
| title_full | How many people can the earth support? Joel E. Cohen |
| title_fullStr | How many people can the earth support? Joel E. Cohen |
| title_full_unstemmed | How many people can the earth support? Joel E. Cohen |
| title_short | How many people can the earth support? |
| title_sort | how many people can the earth support |
| topic | Bevolkingsdruk gtt Population - Aspect économique Population - Densité Prévision démographique Population density Population forecasting Population Economic aspects Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 gnd Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bevolkingsdruk Population - Aspect économique Population - Densité Prévision démographique Population density Population forecasting Population Economic aspects Bevölkerungswachstum Weltbevölkerung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007230890&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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