Policy experiences and issues in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union:
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, DC
Internat. Monetary Fund
1995
|
| Schriftenreihe: | International Monetary Fund: Occasional paper
133 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | IX, 126 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 1557755183 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Policy experiences and issues in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union |c ed. by Daniel A. Citrin ... |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface ix
I Overview I
Daniel A. Citrin
Common Challenges at the Start of Transition 1
Special Factors 2
Response Thus Far 3
Key Common Issues in the Transition Process 6
Decline in Output 6
Inflation Developments and Velocity Behavior 9
Emergence of Interenterprise Arrears 14
Developments and Main Contributing Factors 19
Lessons 20
Role of the Exchange Rate 21
Role of External Financial Assistance, 1992 93 23
Has Financial Assistance Been Adequate? 25
Concluding Remarks 26
Appendix 27
Data Issues on Interenterprise Arrears 27
II The Decline in Output 28
Jonathan Anderson, Daniel A. Citrin, andAshok K. Lahiri
Output Decline 28
Factors Related to Economic Transition 29
Factors Related to the Breakup of the Soviet Union 34
Other Factors 35
Determinants of Future Growth 38
Some Tentative Evidence from Central Europe and the Baltics 38
Conclusions and Policy Implications 40
References 42
III The Behavior of Inflation and Velocity 44
Jonathan Anderson and Daniel A. Citrin
Behavior of Money, Income, and Prices, 1992 94 44
Explaining Inflation and Velocity Movements 48
Inflation and Rate of Growth of Broad Money 48
Factors Affecting the Underlying Demand for Money 49
Influence of Exogenous Factors 50
Role of Interenterprise Credit 56
Measurement Errors 56
Differences in Velocity Performance 57
Recovery of Real Money Demand 58
Wage Developments 61
Conclusions and Implications for Stabilization Policy 62
D
IV I nterenterprise Arrears 63
Ashok K. Lahiri and Daniel A. Citrin
Evolution of Interenterprise Credit and Arrears 63
Initial Transition Period, Early 1992 to Mid 1993 64
Mid 1993 to Late 1994 65
Factors Causing Arrears 66
Normal Factors Operating in a Market Economy 67
Additional Factors in the Transition Economies 68
Policy Options 71
The Stock Problem 72
Preventing New Arrears 72
Interstate Arrears 73
The Energy Sector 74
Conclusions 64
References 75
V The Revenue Decline 76
Richard Hemming, Adrienne Cheasty, and Ashok K. Lahiri
Revenue Developments Since 1991 76
Movements in Total Revenue 77
Movements in Individual Taxes 78
Developments in 1994 79
Factors Explaining Revenue Developments 81
Changes in Level and Structure of Economic Activity 81
Design of the Tax System 83
Efficiency of Tax Administration 85
Crisis in Governance 86
Policy Implications and Responses 87
Immediate Challenges 88
Short to Medium Term Priorities 90
Establishing Good Governance 91
VI Stabilization: Fixed Versus Flexible Exchange Rates 93
Jeromin Zettermeyer and Daniel A. Citrin
General Considerations and Experience 93
Relative Costs 93
Effectiveness 94
Costs of Failure 94
Probability of Success 94
A Currency Board 95
Exchange Rate Policies in Stabilization Programs 96
Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Fund Supported Programs 97
Stabilization Performance Under Alternative Anchors:
Estonia and Latvia 98
Experience with Money Based Programs Outside the Baltics 100
Conclusions for Future Stabilization Policies 101
References 102
VII External Financial Assistance: The Record and Issues 103
Eduard Brau
The Record, 1992 93 103
Is Financial Assistance Conditioned and Timed Appropriately? 106
Is Financial Assistance Adequate in Size? 108
Is Right Financial Assistance Being Provided? 112
B
Is Assistance Repayable? 114
What Is to Be Done About Financing Problems Between
States in the Region? 114
Conclusion 115
Appendix 115
How External Financing Helps Economies in Transition 115
Bibliography 116
VIII Russia and the IMF:The Political Economy of Macrostabilization 117
Ernesto Herndndez Cata
Inflation: Fables, Tall Tales, and Old Truths 117
Revolt Against Macrostabilization: Centralized Credits,
Interenterprise Arrears, Budget Subsidies,
and Tax Exemptions 119
Changing the Structure of Deficit Financing as an Alternative
to Fiscal Adjustment: A Fairy Tale 120
The May 1993 Program 122
The March 1994 Program 123
Box
1. The IMF and the Ruble Area 119
Tables
1.1. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former
Soviet Union: Consumer Price Inflation 3
1.2. Selected Indicators of Reform (as of the end of 1994) 4
1.3. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet
Union: Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product 6
1.4. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet
Union: Inflation and Money Growth, Program Performance 12
1.5. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet
Union: Interenterprise Arrears 18
1.6. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet
Union: Evolution of Revenue, Excluding Union Grants 20
1.7. Countries in Transition: Stabilization Attempts and Inflation
Performance 22
1.8. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet
Union: Global Gross Capital Flows, 1992 93, Cumulative 24
2.1. Real Gross Domestic Product 31
2.2. Gross Fixed Investment and Stockbuilding 32
2.3. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet
Union: Real Gross Capital Formation 32
2.4. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet
Union: Gross Capital Formation 33
2.5. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet
Union: Value of Total Exports to the Rest of the World 34
2.6. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet
Union: Output by Sector, 1993 36
2.7. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet
Union: Volume of Interstate Trade 37
2.8. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet
Union: Real Domestic Money Stock 38
2.9. Real Money Stock and GDP at Constant Prices 39
2.10. Money and Prices 39
2.11. Eastern European Countries in Transition: Selected Indicators 42
3.1. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet
Union: Money and Prices, 1992 94 45
3.2. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet
Union: Quarterly Changes in Macroeconomic Variables 46
3.3. Real Domestic Money Stocks, as of Third Quarter of 1994 48
3.4. Energy Import Prices 55
3.5. Quarterly Changes in Wages, Exchange Rates, and Real
Interest Rates Under Fund Supported Programs 60
4.1. Belarus, Latvia, Russia, and Ukraine: Interenterprise Credit 65
4.2. Russia: Interstate Interenterprise Arrears, as of October 1, 1994 67
4.3. Russia: Sectoral Composition of Interenterprise Arrears 68
5.1. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former
Soviet Union: Revenue and Grants, 1991 77
5.2. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former
Soviet Union: Revenue Developments 78
5.3. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former
Soviet Union: Change in Real Revenue 79
5.4. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former
Soviet Union: Decomposition of the Change in the
Re venue to GDP Ratio, 1991 93 80
5.5. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former
Soviet Union: Change in Re venue to GDP Ratio 81
5.6. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former
Soviet Union: Change in Tax Bases and Real Revenues, 1991 93 82
6.1. IMF Supported Programs in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries
of the Former Soviet Union: General Government Fiscal
Balance, Actual and Program 97
6.2. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union:
Gross Reserve Holdings 98
6.3. Estonia and Latvia: Disinflation and Output Loss, 1992 94 99
6.4. Latvia and Estonia: Interest Rate Differentials 100
7.1. The Baltics, Russia, and Other States of the Former
Soviet Union: Financing Requirements, 1992 93, Cumulative 104
7.2. The Baltics, Russia, and Other States of the Former
Soviet Union: Ratios of Capital Inflows to GDP, Imports
and Per Capita, 1992 93, Cumulative 105
7.3. The Baltics, Russia, and Other States of the Former
Soviet Union: Debt and Debt Service, 1992 94 107
7.4. Commitments and Disbursement to the Baltics, Russia, and Other
Countries of the Former Soviet Union: 1992 June30, 1994,
Cumulative 109
7.5. Financial Assistance to Russia—Announcements and Outcomes 111
Charts
1.1. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former
Soviet Union: Inflation and Output Growth: 1992 94 5
1.2. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former
Soviet Union: Real Gross Domestic Product 7
1.3. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former
Soviet Union: Growth in Output and Broad Money, 1992 94 8
1.4. Money Velocity and Inverse Real Money Balances 10
fl
1.5. Difference Between Inflation and Money Growth Rates in Selected
Fund Supported Programs, 1992 94 14
1.6. Inflation and Lagged Money Growth 16
2.1. Eastern Europe, the Baltics, and Other Countries of the Former
Soviet Union: Real Gross Domestic Product 31
2.2. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former
Soviet Union, 1991: Decline in Rest of the World
Exports and Output 35
2.3. The Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former
Soviet Union: Real Interest Rates and Real GDP Growth,
April 1992 July 1994 40
3.1. Relative Interest Rates and Real Balances 51
3.2. Real Balances, Real Wages, and the Real Exchange Rate 53
3.3. Real Balances and Interenterprise Credit 57
3.4. Broad Money Velocity, Including Foreign Currency 58
4.1. Other Central and Eastern European Countries in Transition:
Interenterprise Arrears 66
The following symbols have been used throughout this paper:
... to indicate that data are not available;
— to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item
does not exist;
between years or months (e.g., 1991 92 or January June) to indicate the years or
months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years (e.g., 1991/92) to indicate a crop or fiscal (financial) year.
Billion means a thousand million.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
The term country, as used in this paper, does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that
is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term also covers some territor¬
ial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained and provided in¬
ternationally on a separate and independent basis.
|
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:59:04Z |
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| oclc_num | 34135543 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-20 DE-N2 DE-188 DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR |
| owner_facet | DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-20 DE-N2 DE-188 DE-Re13 DE-BY-UBR |
| physical | IX, 126 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1995 |
| publishDateSearch | 1995 |
| publishDateSort | 1995 |
| publisher | Internat. Monetary Fund |
| record_format | marc |
| series | International Monetary Fund: Occasional paper |
| series2 | International Monetary Fund: Occasional paper |
| spelling | Policy experiences and issues in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union ed. by Daniel A. Citrin ... Washington, DC Internat. Monetary Fund 1995 IX, 126 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier International Monetary Fund: Occasional paper 133 Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 gnd rswk-swf Economische politiek gtt Economische situatie gtt Estabilización económica - Comunidad de Estados Independientes Stabilisation économique - Europe de l'Est Stabilisation économique - Ex-URSS Wirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik Economic stabilization Europe, Eastern Economic stabilization Former Soviet republics Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd rswk-swf Comunidad de Estados Independientes - Condiciones económicas - 1991 Europe de l'Est - Conditions économiques - 1989- Europe de l'Est - Politique économique - 1989- Ex-URSS - Conditions économiques Ex-URSS - Politique économique Russie - Conditions économiques - 1991- Europe, Eastern Economic conditions 1989- Europe, Eastern Economic policy 1989- Former Soviet republics Economic conditions Former Soviet republics Economic policy Russia (Federation) Economic conditions 1991- Baltikum (DE-588)4004379-4 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 b Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 s DE-604 Baltikum (DE-588)4004379-4 g Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 s Citrin, Daniel A. Sonstige oth International Monetary Fund: Occasional paper 133 (DE-604)BV002597241 133 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007213281&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Policy experiences and issues in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union International Monetary Fund: Occasional paper Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 gnd Economische politiek gtt Economische situatie gtt Estabilización económica - Comunidad de Estados Independientes Stabilisation économique - Europe de l'Est Stabilisation économique - Ex-URSS Wirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik Economic stabilization Europe, Eastern Economic stabilization Former Soviet republics Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)2128486-6 (DE-588)4066493-4 (DE-588)4066512-4 (DE-588)4004379-4 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Policy experiences and issues in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union |
| title_auth | Policy experiences and issues in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union |
| title_exact_search | Policy experiences and issues in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union |
| title_full | Policy experiences and issues in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union ed. by Daniel A. Citrin ... |
| title_fullStr | Policy experiences and issues in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union ed. by Daniel A. Citrin ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Policy experiences and issues in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union ed. by Daniel A. Citrin ... |
| title_short | Policy experiences and issues in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union |
| title_sort | policy experiences and issues in the baltics russia and other countries of the former soviet union |
| topic | Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (DE-588)2128486-6 gnd Economische politiek gtt Economische situatie gtt Estabilización económica - Comunidad de Estados Independientes Stabilisation économique - Europe de l'Est Stabilisation économique - Ex-URSS Wirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik Economic stabilization Europe, Eastern Economic stabilization Former Soviet republics Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten Economische politiek Economische situatie Estabilización económica - Comunidad de Estados Independientes Stabilisation économique - Europe de l'Est Stabilisation économique - Ex-URSS Wirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik Economic stabilization Europe, Eastern Economic stabilization Former Soviet republics Wirtschaftsreform Comunidad de Estados Independientes - Condiciones económicas - 1991 Europe de l'Est - Conditions économiques - 1989- Europe de l'Est - Politique économique - 1989- Ex-URSS - Conditions économiques Ex-URSS - Politique économique Russie - Conditions économiques - 1991- Europe, Eastern Economic conditions 1989- Europe, Eastern Economic policy 1989- Former Soviet republics Economic conditions Former Soviet republics Economic policy Russia (Federation) Economic conditions 1991- Baltikum Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007213281&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002597241 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT citrindaniela policyexperiencesandissuesinthebalticsrussiaandothercountriesoftheformersovietunion |