Economies in transition and the world economy: models, forecasts and scenarios
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Buch |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | German |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Frankfurt am Main [u.a.]
Lang
1997
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | 527 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 3631493355 082043194X |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | 5
List of Contents
General Introduction
1. Modelling transition economies 11
2. The major goals and results. The research teams 12
3. The research activities 14
4. The summary of research results 15
5. Acknowledgements 19
6. Appendix 1 21
Part I. The Structure of the Quarterly Model of the Polish Economy
WK94
Introduction 35
Chapter 1. Quarterly macroeconometric models. General assumptions of the
models for the period of transition
1.1. Introduction 41
1.2. Quarterly models of developed market economies 41
1.3. Quarterly models of economies in transition period to the market
economy. Introductory remarks 43
1.4. Economic mechanisms and behaviour of economic units during
transition period. Basic hypotheses 46
1.5 Structure of a quarterly WK model of the Polish economy 48
1.6. Quarterly model as a simulation system 51
1.7. Database 54
1.8. Estimation problems due to small samples 57
1.9. Validation and use of the model 59
Chapter 2. Structural equations of the model. Specification and results of
estimation
2.1. Introduction 61
2.2. Final demand 61
2.3. Equations of foreign trade 68
2.4. Demand for production and value added by sectors 72
2.5. Personal incomes and expenditures of households 78
2.6. Financial flows in enterprises sector 85
2.7. Activities of banks. Elements of the capital and money market 91
2.8. State budget 97
2.9. Components of the balance of payments 99
2.10. Prices 101
2.11. Employment and unemployment 109
6
References 115
Appendix 1.2.1. List of variables of WK94 model 123
Appendix 1.2.2. List of stochastic equations 128
Appendix I 2.3. List of identities 146
Part II. Quarterly Simulation System for the Polish Economy and Its
Properties
Introduction 153
Chapter 3. Quarterly model as a simulation system
3.1. Introduction 155
3.2. The formal structure of the WK quarterly models 156
3.3. The major economic mechanisms and their patterns as
reflected in the model 167
3.4. Model as a system of interrelated equations 175
3.5. First scenario analyses 205
Chapter 4. The quarterly model of the Polish economy further developments
4.1. The last WK94 version of the quarterly model summary of
findings 215
4.2. Data base problems 215
4.3. Desirable directions of the model respecification 216
4.4. The models use in policy simulations 217
4.5. The first short term forecasts 218
References 225
Appendix II 4.1. Cross reference table 227
Appendix II.4.2. Types of multipliers 235
Appendix II.4.3. Multipliers simulation results 237
Part HI. Annual Model of the Polish Economy New Aspects for
Transition Period
Introduction 253
Chapter 5. W5 model and the Polish economy in transition
5.1. Introduction 255
5.2. The macroeconometric model W5 of the Polish economy 259
5.3 The model s validation. The approach used in studying
the stability of model s parameters outside the sample period 261
5.4. The accuracy of the ex post forecasts and the stability of
model s parameters between 1983 1988 264
5.5 Final remarks 292
7
Chapter 6. The new annual W10 model of the Polish economy.
Assumptions and first empirical results
6.1. Introduction. Assumptions for the transition period 295
6.2. The major new tendencies in construction of annual models
for the economies in transition 296
6.3. Production potential 300
6.4. The commodity supplies and the final and intermediate
demand 314
6.5. The financial flows 323
6.6. The price system 333
6.7. Final remarks 337
References 339
Part IV. Experimental Models for the Former CSFR and Slovak Economy
Introduction 345
Chapter 7. An experimental annual model of the CSFR economy with
disaggregated foreign trade
7.1. Preliminary remarks 347
7.2. Brief description of the annual model with disaggregated foreign
trade 348
7.3. Economic interpretation of selected equations 349
7.4. Ex post verification of the model 354
References 355
Appendix IV. 7.1. List of variables 357
Appendix IV.7.2. System of equations of the Czecho Slovak experimental
econometric model 361
Chapter 8 Experimental econometric model of the Slovak economy
8.1. Introduction 367
8.2. General description of the model 368
8 3 Economic content of the model 369
8.4. Data base and specification of the model variables 371
8 5. The system of model equations 372
8.6. Economic interpretation of the system of regression equations and
identities 372
References 381
Appendix IV. 8.1. List of variables 383
Appendix IV.8.2. Macromodel SR 1 385
8
Part V. Small World Economy Models and Related Issues
Introduction 391
Chapter 9. Quarterly models of the world and French economy
9.1. General overview of the system of GAMA models 393
9.2. A system of forecasting financial indicators (PREFIN) 395
9.3. System PREVAP 397
9.4. VAR Models 400
9.5. Project GAIA. Modelling the world economy 401
9.6. The model PROTEE 406
9.7. Analysis of the household consumption 413
References 417
Appendix V. 9 419
Chapter 10. PRIAMO: the Prometeia international annual model
10.1. Introduction 425
10.2. The reference international trade model 426
10.3. The international trade submodel in PRIAMO 429
10.4. Domestic demand equations 434
10.5. The supply side equations 435
10.6. The impact of the monetary policy 437
10.7. Properties of the model 438
References 443
Appendix V. 10 445
Part VI. Forecasts and Scenario Analyses
Introduction 459
Chapter 11. Analysis of the Slovak economy development
11.1. Introduction 461
11.2. Changes in macroeconomic characteristics of the Slovak
economy: 1991 1993 461
11.3. Analysis based on model simulations and definition of relevant
factors 466
11.4. Analysis of the impact of the selected factors on the development
of main macroeconomic variables of Slovak economy in 1991 and
1992 468
Chapter 12. Economic outlook of the CSFR: Estimation of consequences
of the Czecho Slovak divorce
12.1. Introduction 475
9
12.2. The position and mutual relationships of the Czech and Slovak
economies in 1991 1992 476
12.3. Estimation of the impact of the state division on the Czech and
Slovak economies and their short term forecast 478
12.4. Conclusions 483
Chapter 13 Transformation and economic policy alternatives. Scenarios of
Poland s economic development to the year 2000
13.1. Introduction 485
13.2. Outline of the baseline 1993 forecast for the years 1993 1999 486
13.3. Stagnation and recovery 487
13.4. Scenarios of stimulating the investment activities 499
13.5. Scenarios of economic growth 510
13.6. Conclusions 521
13.7. Epilogue 523
References 526
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:58:56Z |
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| spelling | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios Władysław Welfe (ed.) Frankfurt am Main [u.a.] Lang 1997 527 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd rswk-swf Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd rswk-swf Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd rswk-swf Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 gnd rswk-swf Slowakei (DE-588)4055297-4 gnd rswk-swf Tschechien (DE-588)4303381-7 gnd rswk-swf Polen (DE-588)4046496-9 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Polen (DE-588)4046496-9 g Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 s Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 s Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 s DE-604 Slowakei (DE-588)4055297-4 g Tschechien (DE-588)4303381-7 g Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 g Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 s Welfe, Władysław 1927-2013 Sonstige (DE-588)110389905 oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007207166&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4074486-3 (DE-588)4066512-4 (DE-588)4043212-9 (DE-588)4065468-0 (DE-588)4075739-0 (DE-588)4055297-4 (DE-588)4303381-7 (DE-588)4046496-9 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios |
| title_auth | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios |
| title_exact_search | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios |
| title_full | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios Władysław Welfe (ed.) |
| title_fullStr | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios Władysław Welfe (ed.) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economies in transition and the world economy models, forecasts and scenarios Władysław Welfe (ed.) |
| title_short | Economies in transition and the world economy |
| title_sort | economies in transition and the world economy models forecasts and scenarios |
| title_sub | models, forecasts and scenarios |
| topic | Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd Wirtschaftsreform (DE-588)4066512-4 gnd Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Makroökonomisches Modell Wirtschaftsreform Ökonometrisches Modell Weltwirtschaft Osteuropa Slowakei Tschechien Polen Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007207166&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT welfewładysław economiesintransitionandtheworldeconomymodelsforecastsandscenarios |