Exchange rate parity for trade and development: theory, tests, and case studies
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge [u.a.]
Cambridge Univ. Press
1996
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Publisher description Table of contents Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVII, 323 S. |
| ISBN: | 052148216X |
Internformat
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| 650 | 4 | |a Entwicklungsländer | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Wirtschaftsentwicklung | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Foreign exchange rates -- Developing countries | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804125117385539584 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Tables and Figures page xi
Preface xv
Part I A review of the terrain
1 Introduction 3
2 Trade and development: The contours of the landscape 12
The classical foundations: The neoclassical tradition of
development economics 12
The classical beginnings 12
The neoclassical edifice 16
The salient ideas of the orthodox development paradigm and
the theoretical grounding of the neoclassical system 18
The structuralist critique 21
Unequal exchange 22
Factoral terms of trade and the pivotal position of agriculture 23
Class structure and economic development 28
Conclusion 34
Appendix: North South convergence in a Lewis type model 36
3 Incomplete markets and the new development economics 38
Cases of incomplete markets 39
Capital goods markets 40
Credit markets 41
Insurance markets 43
Incomplete markets in foreign exchange 44
The systematic underpinning of market incompleteness in
foreign exchange and trade: Ricardian productivity
differentials 45
Incomplete exchange and trade in a quasi Autralian model 49
Pitfalls and pay offs of intervention in incomplete markets 52
Conclusion 56
Appendix: The Ricardo Principle 58
vii
viii Contents
Part II Theory and empirical analysis
4 Market incompleteness in an open economy LDC 63
A welfare model with tradables and nontradables 64
The closed economy 64
The open economy 66
Diagrammatics 68
The poor countries Dutch disease 72
Dynamics 74
From nominal to real exchange rate: Is there an incomplete
market? 77
Conclusion 79
Appendix: Constrained equilibrium expenditure curve 81
5 The relationship between real and nominal exchange rates 85
Purchasing power parity and exchange rates 85
Measurement of real exchange rates 87
Absolute vs. relative purchasing power parity 88
External terms of trade real exchange rates 90
Internal terms of trade real exchange rates 92
Measurement of absolute purchasing power parity 93
Purchasing power parity prices and real exchange rates 96
Conclusion 100
Appendix: Extensions of purchasing power parity measurement 101
6 Empirical investigation of real exchange rates: Tradability and
relative prices 103
The elements of tradability 103
International tradability and transaction costs 106
The empirical content of tradability 108
The criterion of tradability plus tradedness 111
The normalization procedure: A throwback to the law of
one price? 117
Conclusion 119
7 An endogenous growth model of incomplete markets in
foreign exchange 120
The structural model 121
The conventional endogenous growth models 121
An endogenous growth model with incomplete markets 123
Implementation of an endogenous growth framework 126
The dependent variable 126
The explanatory variables of primary interest 127
The stylized endogenous growth variables 128
Contents ix
The empirical analysis 130
Ordinary least squares results 130
Causality tests and alternative models 139
Causality: An interpretation of market incompleteness 142
Comparison with other studies 146
Why are the strong results surprising? Development policy
failure and development politics failure 150
Conclusion 153
Appendix: Tables 154
8 Are devaluations possibly contractionary? A quasi Australian
model with tradables and nontradables 158
Review of the literature 159
A theoretical model 162
The model 163
Formal comparative statics 165
An empirical model of the pass through 170
Diagrammatical definitions and measurement 170
Testable hypotheses and data 174
Empirical results 178
Conclusion 183
Appendix: The signs of the partial derivatives 186
Part III Successes and failures in development: Good/bad
economics and governance
9 Japan: Overvaluation without rent seeking 191
The aftermath of World War II 193
Overriding the foreign exchange and trade markets 193
Overvaluation of nominal exchange rate 193
Foreign exchange control and import policies 194
Export policies 196
Overriding the labor market and the role of domestic demand 197
Domestic demand 197
The unlimited supplies of labor and incomplete markets 201
Appropriate industrial policies 215
The role of the state 218
State led capitalism 218
Administrative guidance 219
Conclusion: A nonrevisionist interpretation 221
10 The Philippines: Failure in policy and politics 224
The stage and the setting 224
Land concentration and land reform 224
x Contents
Inadequate infrastructure 227
The basic policy regime 228
The policy tools 229
Persistent undervaluation of the exchange rate 229
Intervention policies for (or despite) undervaluation 235
Interventions for export led industrialization 235
Interventions for export led agricultural growth 239
Governance 242
The outcomes 244
Low productivity 244
Low labor absorptive capacity 245
Low incomes 245
Conclusion 247
11 Financial integration and the refractory role of intervention:
Uruguay and Taiwan 249
Agriculture 250
Taiwanese agriculture: The foundation of pluralistic
development 251
Uruguay: Agricultural stagnation 256
Industrialization 259
Uruguay: The change in track and the spurts of growth 259
Taiwan: The train of industrialization and the locomotive
of trade 261
Comparative evaluation of the growth in the real sector: The
role of domestic demand 265
The tradable financial sector 271
Uruguay: The costs of asymmetric financial integration 271
Taiwan: Financial integration with exceptional
circumstances 277
Conclusion 280
12 Summary, conclusions, and policy recommendations 282
Bibliography 293
Index 311
List of Tables and Figures
Tables
Table 1.1. Countries ranked by the value of the RER index, 1985 6
Table 1.2. A preview of the relationship between growth and real
exchange rate 7
Table 5.1. Per capita GDP and price levels, 1975, for six groups of
contries by income class 98
Table 5.2. Indexes of GDP per capita and of price levels, 1975 99
Table 6.1. Index of RER, benchmark countries, 1970, 1975, 1980,
1985 114
Table 6.2. Sensitivity of ranking by RER index to different criteria of
tradability, 1975 116
Table 7.1. Cross section/time series regressions on growth, all
countries, 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985 132
Table 7.2. Cross section/time series regressions on growth, all
countries, 1980 and 1985 134
Table 7.3. Cross section regressions on growth, all countries, 1985 135
Table 7.4. Cross section regressions on growth, all countries, 1980 136
Table 7.5. Cross section/time series regressions on growth, all
countries, 1970 and 1975 137
Table 7.6. Cross section/time series regressions on growth, low and
middle income countries, 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985 138
Table 7.7. Cross section/time series regressions on growth, all
countries, 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985 140
Table 7.8. Test of the Ricardo Principle: Regressions of real per capita
income, all countries, 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985 143
Table 7.9. Rethinking of the Dollar test 149
Table A7.1. Basic statistics of variables 154
Table A7.2. Hausman s exogeneity tests of endogenous growth
models 155
Table A7.3. Estimation results of simultaneous equations system,
alternative models 156
xi
xii List of Tables and Figures
Table 8.1. Devaluations and change in the RER 179
Table 8.2. Distributed lag results of test of real pass through 181
Table 9.1. An international comparison of growth rates in GNP,
exports, and imports, and income elasticity of exports,
1956/1957 1964/1965 197
Table 9.2. Exports as percentage of GNP, selected countries, 1966 and
1986 198
Table 9.3. Household ownership of consumer durables in Japan,
1957 1980 200
Table 9.4. Agriculture in Japan s economic development, 1935 1980 208
Table 9.5. Comparison of food self sufficiency rates between Japan
and other industrial countries 209
Table 9.6. Comparisons of income levels between farm households
and urban worker households for Japan 210
Table 9.7. Number of establishments and persons employed for
small category and total wholesale and retail trade for Japan,
1951 1985 213
Table 10.1. Key macroeconomic and financial indicators for the
Philippines, 1950 1990 225
Table 10.2. Status of land use for the Philippines, 1970 1984 227
Table 10.3. Major economic shocks and policy responses in the
Philippines 230
Table 10.4. Exchange rates, nominal and inflation adjusted, for the
Philippines, 1960 1986 232
Table 10.5. Structure of imports and exports for the Philippines,
1950 1983 238
Table 10.6. Shares of imports in total supply of manufactures for the
Philippines, 1980 1983 238
Table 11.1. Household income distribution for Uruguay, 1961 1962
and 1984 250
Table 11.2. Rate of growth of GNP and financial statistics for
Uruguay, 1945 1992 251
Table 11.3. Rate of growth of GNP and financial Statistics for
Taiwan, 1953 1992 252
Table 11.4. Composition of imports for Uruguay, selected periods,
1909 1956 260
Table 11.5. Composition of exports and imports for Taiwan and their
shares, selected years, 1952 1988 261
Table 11.6. Participation in imports and exports by industry
classification in Taiwan, 1952 1989 264
Table 11.7. Annual growth of gross product of industries for Taiwan
ranked by decreasing labor intensity, 1954 1980 265
List of Tables and Figures xiii
Table 11.8. Production and imports of consumer goods in Uruguay,
1974 1978 267
Table 11.9. The importance of broadly based demand: rankings of
industry sectors by linkage coefficients, Taiwan, 1966 269
Table 11.10. Rates of growth of industrial gross product in Taiwan at
periods corresponding to the product cycle 270
Table 11.11. Deposits by private sector for Uruguay, in local currency
and in dollars, 1984 1991 272
Figures
Figure 2.1. Ricardian rents 15
Figure 2.2. Structure of articulated economy 30
Figure 2.3. Structure of disarticulated export enclave economy 31
Figure 3.1. Combinations of profit levels and nominal exchange rates
in an incomplete market 44
Figure 3.2. A schematic illustration of the Ricardo Principle for a rich
and a poor country 48
Figure 3.3. Alternative quantity closure outcomes 54
Figure 4.1. Internal and external balance in the dependent economy
model 70
Figure 4.2. A Dutch disease interpretation 73
Figure 4.3. Dynamics of internal and external balance 75
Figure 4.4. Growth policy packages in the dependent economy model 76
Figure A4.1. Construction of the constrained equilibrium expenditure
curve 82
Figure A4.2. The constrained equilibrium expenditure curve 83
Figure 6.1. Transaction costs and tradability 107
Figure 8.1. Price through and pass through effects of devaluation 171
Figure 8.2. Full pass through 172
Figure 8.3. Overshooting of the nominal exchange rate 176
Figure 9.1. Shifts in Japanese industrial structure and patterns of trade,
1930 1975 199
Figure 9.2. Marginal productivities: Agriculture and manufacturing,
plotted against labor force 202
Figure 9.3. Marginal productivities: Agriculture and manufacturing,
and the equilibrium wage in the Todaro Model 203
Figure 9.4. The food problem 206
Figure 9.5. The farm problem 207
Figure 10.1. Treasury Bills rates, Philippines and U.S., 1980 1990 234
xiv List of Tables and Figures
Figure 10.2. Productivity trends for the Philippines 245
Figure 10.3. Index of real wage costs, 1952 1983, for the Philippines 246
Figure 11.1. Rate of inflation and percentage change in nominal
exchange rate for Uruguay, 1985 1992 273
Figure 11.2. Long and short term capital inflows for Uruguay and
total external debt, 1980 1992 275
|
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:56:28Z |
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| spelling | Yotopoulos, Pan A. Verfasser (DE-588)170096297 aut Exchange rate parity for trade and development theory, tests, and case studies Pan A. Yotopoulos 1. publ. Cambridge [u.a.] Cambridge Univ. Press 1996 XVII, 323 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Geschichte 1950-1992 gnd rswk-swf Entwicklungsländer Wirtschaftsentwicklung Foreign exchange rates -- Developing countries Economic development Währungsparität (DE-588)4188823-6 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Developing countries -- Commercial policy Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 gnd rswk-swf Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 g Währungsparität (DE-588)4188823-6 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s Geschichte 1950-1992 z DE-604 http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/cam027/95024131.html Publisher description http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/cam026/95024131.html Table of contents HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007100438&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Yotopoulos, Pan A. Exchange rate parity for trade and development theory, tests, and case studies Entwicklungsländer Wirtschaftsentwicklung Foreign exchange rates -- Developing countries Economic development Währungsparität (DE-588)4188823-6 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4188823-6 (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4014954-7 |
| title | Exchange rate parity for trade and development theory, tests, and case studies |
| title_auth | Exchange rate parity for trade and development theory, tests, and case studies |
| title_exact_search | Exchange rate parity for trade and development theory, tests, and case studies |
| title_full | Exchange rate parity for trade and development theory, tests, and case studies Pan A. Yotopoulos |
| title_fullStr | Exchange rate parity for trade and development theory, tests, and case studies Pan A. Yotopoulos |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exchange rate parity for trade and development theory, tests, and case studies Pan A. Yotopoulos |
| title_short | Exchange rate parity for trade and development |
| title_sort | exchange rate parity for trade and development theory tests and case studies |
| title_sub | theory, tests, and case studies |
| topic | Entwicklungsländer Wirtschaftsentwicklung Foreign exchange rates -- Developing countries Economic development Währungsparität (DE-588)4188823-6 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Entwicklungsländer Wirtschaftsentwicklung Foreign exchange rates -- Developing countries Economic development Währungsparität Mathematisches Modell Developing countries -- Commercial policy |
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