Financial models and simulation:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Undetermined |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Basingstoke [u.a.]
Macmillan [u.a.]
1995
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVII, 359 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0333634195 0312126301 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Financial models and simulation |c Dimitris N. Chorafas |
| 250 | |a 1. publ. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Basingstoke [u.a.] |b Macmillan [u.a.] |c 1995 | |
| 300 | |a XVII, 359 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
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| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Mathematisches Modell | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Corporations |x Finance |x Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Financial services industry |x Technological innovations | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Fuzzy systems | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Finanzplanungsmodell |0 (DE-588)4252015-0 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804124804768333824 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Figures xj
List of Tables xjv
Preface xv
PART ONE THE PRACTICE OF FINANCIAL MODELING 1
1 The Leading Edge of Financial Analysis 3
Introduction 3
The Effort to Simplify a World of Complexity 4
The New Wave of Financial Accountability 5
Overcoming the Problem of Innumeracy 7
Basic Concepts Underpinning Accounting Procedures 9
The Contribution of Luca Paciolo 10
Posting, Accumulation and Communication of
Financial Data 13
How the Financial Accounting Standards Board Looks
at Accounting Practice 15
Principles Underpinning Management Accounting 17
Management Accounting and Financial Standards 18
2 Introducing Modeling Concepts in Finance and Accounting 22
Introduction 22
Bridging the Gap Between Finance and Mathematics 23
The Need for Interdisciplinary Approaches 25
The Mission of Developing and Providing Financial
Information 27
Basic Notions Behind Financial Modeling 29
Financial Analysis and Knowledge Engineering 31
Capitalizing on Interactive Computational Finance 32
Concepts Underpinning Modern Approaches 35
The Flexibility Required for Financial Modeling 37
The Role Played by Fuzzy Engineering 39
Cross fertilization Provided by Rocket Scientists 41
3 Defining the Modeling Domain 43
Introduction 43
Can we Define the Domain we are Modeling? 44
v
vi Contents
Developing Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenarios 46
Accounting for Valuation Errors 48
Behavioral Aspects of Investors and Lenders 50
Are the Best Models of a General or a Specific Nature? 51
Domain Modeling, Macroeconomics and Microeconomics 54
Accounting or Non accounting for Inflation? 56
Pitfalls with Economic Replacement Costs 57
The Challenge Confronting Financial Analysis 59
4 Organizational Prerequisites for Financial Models 62
Introduction 62
Practical Objectives with Financial Models 63
Organizational Advantages of Having a Financial Model 65
The Need for Interactive Model Handling 67
Objectives to be Reached Through Concurrent Banking 69
Providing the Appropriate Testing Procedures 72
Establishing an Acceptable Error Level in Management
Accounting 73
Ensuring Accuracy and Quality of Inputs 76
The Concepts of Data Smoothing and Data Filtering 79
How Can we Filter the Information we Receive? 81
Using the Input for Internal and External Evaluation 84
PART TWO MODELS FOR BUDGETING AND
BUDGETARY CONTROL
5 Financial Planning and Budgeting Procedures 89
Introduction 89
The Budget as a Planning Model 90
The Integration of Financial Information and its Analysis 92
Interest Budget and Noninterest Budget 94
Detailed Procedures for the Elaboration of Budgets 95
A Short term Budget for Sales and Production 98
Cash Forecasts and Cash Outlays 100
The Master Budget and Financial Responsibility 102
Financial Aftermaths of Budgetary Processes 103
Flexible.and Multiple Budgets 106
The General Electric Experience in Setting a Budget 107
6 Developing and Using a Budget Analyzer 110
Introduction 110
Quantification is a Form of Protection 110
Contents vii
Improvements Through the Introduction of Knowledge
Engineering 112
The Use of Graphs in Financial Analysis and Accounting 114
Prerequisites for the Use of a Budgetary Model 117
The Budget Expressed in Algorithmic Form 119
Benefits From a Parametric Design 121
Accounting for Labor and Material Costs 123
The Concept and Practice of Breakeven 126
Paying Attention to Direct Labor and Direct Material 128
7 Building Models to Control Costs 132
Introduction 132
Cost Control as Management Strategy 133
The Principle of the Lean Organization 135
Controlling Direct and Indirect Costs 137
Overhead Expenses and Bureaucracy 139
The Process of Establishing Standard Costs 142
What is Meant by Prospective Cost Standards? 143
Profit Centers and the Concept of Actual Costing 145
Methods of Accounting for Deferred Costs 148
Current Assets, Short and Long term Costs 149
8 Methods and Procedures for Better Control over Costs
and Budgets 152
Introduction 152
Qualitative and Quantitative Management Reports 153
Using Breakeven Analysis in the Financial Industry 155
The Impact of the Bank s Deposit Mix 158
Are Some Assumptions Made by the Financial
Industry Really Sound? 160
How to Develop Cost Accounting Models 162
The Importance of Getting Acceptance 165
Improving and Refining the Cost System 166
The Nature of the Modeling Effort 168
Sizing up the Job Which Needs to be Done 169
Ways and Means for Budgetary Enforcement 171
PART THREE MODELING BALANCE SHEET AND
OFF BALANCE SHEET OPERATIONS
9 Models for Balance Sheet Reporting 177
Introduction 177
viii Contents
Information Technology and the General Ledger 178
Balance Sheet Impact of Organization and Technology 181
Analyzing the Income and Expense Statement 182
What if Experimentation with the Balance Sheet 184
Role and Functions of a Descriptive Model and of
an Optimizer 187
Models, Balance Sheets and Exception Reporting 189
Multidimensional Analysis and the Acid Test 192
Managerial Responsibilities and the Balance Sheet 194
An Exercise in Financial Engineering 198
10 New Financial Instruments and Off Balance Sheet
Transactions 202
Introduction 202
Using Derivative Financial Instruments 203
Credit Risk and Market Risk 206
Notional Principal Amount 209
The Concept of Fair Value 210
What is Meant by Options? 213
Futures Contracts and Forwards 215
Swaps Agreements and Spreads 216
The Role of Prediction in Financial Analysis 218
Models, Volatility and Hedging 220
Marking to market and Marking to model for
Option Pricing? 221
11 Cash Flow and its Management 224
Introduction 224
Defining the Meaning of Cash Flow 225
Looking at Cash Flow as a Critical Resource 227
Focusing on Cash Flows and Other Assets 229
Developing Effective Means for Cash Management 231
Net Present Value, Net Worth and Heuristics 232
Prerequisites for a Dynamic Financial Analysis 235
Research Focused on Cash flow Problems 239
The Focal Point of Analytical Exercises 242
Implementation of Non traditional Financial Research 244
12 Ways and Means for Judging Profitability 247
Introduction 247
Judging Profitability Through the Customer Mirror 248
Contents ix
Enhancing Relationship Management by Means of
Customer Profiling 250
The Classification and Use of Database Elements 252
Overcoming the Deficiencies Embedded in
Legacy Systems 256
Accounting for Profit Centers and Cost Centers 258
Paying Attention to the Development of Profitability Models 261
Refining the Costing Structure 264
The Marginal Cost of Funds 266
Cost of Funds and Corporate Reporting Practices 268
The Old and New Frameworks for Management
Reporting 270
PART FOUR THE BOARD WANTS ANSWERS WHICH
ARE NORMALIZED AND COMPREHENSIBLE
13 How to Monitor Performance Through Critical Financial
Ratios 275
Introduction 275
The Role Given to Ratio Analysis 276
Ratios as a Mirror of Financial Performance 277
The Most Revealing Financial Ratios 279
Evaluating Sales and Inventories Through Ratios 281
Milestones in a Financial Analysis for Investment Reasons 284
The Contribution of Financial Analysis in Discovering
Anomalies in the Market 285
An Integrative Approach to Investment Criteria 287
Ratio Analysis in the Banking Industry 291
Appreciating the More Classical Metrics 295
Can we Estimate Yield to Breakeven? 297
14 The Creative Use of Algorithmic Solutions 299
Introduction 299
Benefits Derived from Simple Algorithms: An Example
With Interest Income 300
Algorithms for Personal Loans and for Yield Calculation 303
Evaluating the Returns from Bond Issues 304
A Methodology for Sophisticated Investors 306
Algorithms and Heuristics for Loans and Investments 308
Earnings per Share and Payout 310
Taking into Account the Event Risk 313
Warrants and Bills of Exchange 315
x Contents
Exchange Rates and Swaps 318
The Use of Indexed Futures 319
15 The Role of Visualization with Analytical Approaches
and Quantitative Methods 322
Introduction 322
Going beyond the Contribution of Ratios 323
Charts, Statistics and Management 325
Improving Visualization through Interactive Graphics 328
Human Windows: From Graphical Presentation to
Virtual Reality 331
Organization and Methodology to Support Interactive
Applications 333
Developing Increasingly Competitive Management Tools 335
Capitalizing on the Polyvalence of Financial Models 339
Implementing Sensitivity Analysis and Worst Case
Scenarios 341
Ensuring That Sensitivity Analysis Becomes Part of
the Culture 343
A Policy Decision That All Results are Comprehensible 344
Acknowledgments 348
Bibliography 352
Index 353
List of Figures
1.1 A common ground in DP, DSS and AI 8
1.2 Delivery versus payment means that we do the
operation simultaneously on four books which are
databased 12
1.3 Normalized accounting procedures may be used not
only with money but also with goods, such as the Bill
of Materials (BOM) 14
1.4 A common distributed database serves both general
accounting and management accounting 19
2.1 Pareto s law suggests that a small part of variable A
controls a big part of variable B 25
2.2 A systems methodology is not necessarily straightforward,
as it includes loopbacks 27
2.3 Applications domains of artificial intelligence in finance 34
2.4 Data processing is not answering top management s
requirements, knowledge engineering should do better 38
2.5 A typical budgetary problem presented in a fuzzy
engineering graph 40
3.1 Knowledge based systems and the enhancement of basic
technologies 46
3.2 Domain modeling goes beyond the mathematical frame
and involves several important behavioral issues 48
3.3 Investment decisions are usually situated within the
framework of an all embracing system 53
3.4 The internal accounting management information system
and its components 60
4.1 Forecasting the financial performance of the company 65
4.2 General ledger reporting in a flexible, interactive manner 69
4.3 An integrative approach to financial modeling 71
4.4 A graph analysis system using knowledge engineering 74
4.5 Basic steps in market data filtering 78
4.6 Block diagram of an expert system for filtering purposes 82
5.1 Profit and loss analysis in function of budgetary allocations 91
5.2 A frame of reference is very helpful both for financial
planning and for control 93
5.3 The elaboration of budgets and analytical studies have
many issues in common 97
5.4 Conceptual view of how to derive added value from data 104
6.1 Graphical presentation of a balance sheet 115
xi
xii List of Figures
6.2 A disciplined financial planning process 118
6.3 Fixed, variable and semi variable costs in a breakeven
chart 126
6.4 Production needed to breakeven: production level A is
less than B because fixed costs are lower 129
6.5 A chart for sales expenses needed with breakeven studies 130
7.1 A cost allocation scheme from origin to destination 136
7.2 All personnel expenditures must be watched very
carefully, with metrics able to calculate efficiency and
labor content 139
7.3 The need to cut the fat in overhead can be facilitated
by proper analysis 147
8.1 Performance measurements can be effective only when
there is a formal system of control 154
8.2 A strategy to control information technology expenses 156
8.3 Developing the overall financial plan 159
8.4 Design approach to the information system goals
and priorities 163
9.1 Reporting structure in a layered organization pyramid 178
9.2 The general ledger is the storehouse of the company s
accounting information elements 179
9.3 What if experimentation requires online access to
databases and artifacts which simulate or optimize
business conditions 186
9.4 The balance sheet of a manufacturing firm 190
9.5 A bank s balance sheet 191
9.6 A step by step approach to evaluation of financial data,
judgment and action 192
9.7 XYZ: balance sheet 196
9.8 XYZ: profit and loss statement 196
9.9 A profit and loss planning and evaluation model 197
9.10 Assignment of accounts 200
10.1 Risk calculation is a steady business to be done
24 hours per day, targetting the longer term 205
10.2 A solution space for successful operations with
off balance sheet instruments 208
10.3 The reporting of financial exposure by commercial and
investment banks can be made along a 3 dimensional
frame of reference 211
11.1 Estimating the operating costs and cash flow balances 234
11.2 A bank s income and expense statement 235
11.3 A critical analysis of income statements 236
11.4 Expert systems interfacing to a decision support
infrastructure 237
List of Figures xiii
11.5 Statement of profit and loss: first quarter of an
operation year based on analytics 238
11.6 Model of financial and market performance 241
11.7 From original goals to necessary infrastructure 244
12.1 Reconciliation of float and reserves required versus
available 248
12.2 Fifteen years ago the use of XTRACT was a solution,
today it is an aberration 253
12.3 A layered structure and expert systems for online handling
of heterogeneous protocols 254
12.4 Format for profit center reporting 260
12.5 Charges for account handling 263
12.6 Developing an overall business concept and
detecting trends 271
13.1 Follow up on critical ratios characterizing the operations
of a leading bank over a five year period 278
14.1 Developing a menu base enduser interface 302
14.2 A radar chart for loan evaluation 309
14.3 A trend line helps to identify a situation getting out
of control 314
15.1 Danger signals in March 1994 by the CIBCR early
indicator on inflation 326
15.2 Operating margin of computer and business equipment
firms over a thirty year timeframe 328
15.3 The Adelaide Steamship Company: straight and
parabolic trend lines 329
15.4 A 3 D presentation of analysis for Nav Atlas
Navigation Systems 333
15.5 Critical management ratios for comparative reasons 336
15.6 Analysis of income statement 338
15.7 A radar chart can help in the effective visualization
of key decision factors and their variation 339
15.8 The grading of bonds is by its nature fuzzy, but
possibility theory permits us to limit the area of
variation 345
List of Tables
6.1 Variance analysis for budgetary control 113
6.2 Developing the production budget 120
9.1 XYZ: critical ratings in evaluating performance 196
10.1 Ten crucial differences characterizing futures and
forward contracts 215
10.2 Key factors entering an options pricing model 223
13.1 Metrics from America s big financial institutions
in 1984 and 1988 288
13.2 Key ratios for a sample of American banks 292
14.1 Compound interest over fifteen years 301
15.1 Two years of operations: computer company ABC 327
xiv
|
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| id | DE-604.BV010380739 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:51:29Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0333634195 0312126301 |
| language | Undetermined |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-006910771 |
| oclc_num | 243813345 |
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| owner_facet | DE-739 DE-12 DE-703 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| physical | XVII, 359 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1995 |
| publishDateSearch | 1995 |
| publishDateSort | 1995 |
| publisher | Macmillan [u.a.] |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Chorafas, Dimitris N. 1926-2014 Verfasser (DE-588)107941961 aut Financial models and simulation Dimitris N. Chorafas 1. publ. Basingstoke [u.a.] Macmillan [u.a.] 1995 XVII, 359 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Mathematisches Modell Corporations Finance Mathematical models Financial services industry Technological innovations Fuzzy systems Finanzplanungsmodell (DE-588)4252015-0 gnd rswk-swf Finanzierung (DE-588)4017182-6 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Finanzplanungsmodell (DE-588)4252015-0 s DE-604 Finanzierung (DE-588)4017182-6 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006910771&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Chorafas, Dimitris N. 1926-2014 Financial models and simulation Mathematisches Modell Corporations Finance Mathematical models Financial services industry Technological innovations Fuzzy systems Finanzplanungsmodell (DE-588)4252015-0 gnd Finanzierung (DE-588)4017182-6 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4252015-0 (DE-588)4017182-6 (DE-588)4114528-8 |
| title | Financial models and simulation |
| title_auth | Financial models and simulation |
| title_exact_search | Financial models and simulation |
| title_full | Financial models and simulation Dimitris N. Chorafas |
| title_fullStr | Financial models and simulation Dimitris N. Chorafas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Financial models and simulation Dimitris N. Chorafas |
| title_short | Financial models and simulation |
| title_sort | financial models and simulation |
| topic | Mathematisches Modell Corporations Finance Mathematical models Financial services industry Technological innovations Fuzzy systems Finanzplanungsmodell (DE-588)4252015-0 gnd Finanzierung (DE-588)4017182-6 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Mathematisches Modell Corporations Finance Mathematical models Financial services industry Technological innovations Fuzzy systems Finanzplanungsmodell Finanzierung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006910771&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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