World population projections for the 21st century: theoretical interpretations and quantitative simulations
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | German |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Frankfurt
Campus-Verl. [u.a.]
1995
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik <Bielefeld>: Forschungsberichte des Instituts für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik (IBS), Universität Bielefeld
21 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | 498 S. zahlr. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 3593354322 0312127715 |
Internformat
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| 490 | 1 | |a Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik <Bielefeld>: Forschungsberichte des Instituts für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik (IBS), Universität Bielefeld |v 21 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Bevolkingsontwikkeling |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Twenty-first century |v Forecasts | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text |
List of Contents
Foreword 15
PART I
Historical and Theoretical Aspects of World Population Growth
Chapter I
Introduction 19
Chapter II
Population Theory and Human Ecology 25
2.1 The Central Proposition of This Book 25
2.2 The Common Origins of Population Theory and Human Ecology 26
2.3 Epistemological Aspects and the Problem of Ethics 36
Chapter III
Intel cultural Differentials in Human Reproduction
and the Decline in World Fertility 45
3.1 Introductory Remarks 45
3.2 Differential Reproduction, Biography and Fertility 51
3.3 Causes of High Fertility and the Significance of Inter
Generational Transfers 67
Chapter IV
World Population Projections for the 21st Century 83
4.1 Introduction and Proposition 83
4 2 Methodological Aspects, Basic Terms and the Initial Data
used for Population Projections 91
7
4.3 Impact of Alternative Fertility Scenarios on World Population
Growth 94
4.4 Impact of Alternative Mortality Scenarios upon World Population
Growth 117
4.5 Population Changes by Country and Region 121
4.6 Summary 123
Chapter V
World Population Growth, Development and the Environment:
Dimensions of a Global Dilemma 143
5.1 Preliminary Remarks 143
5.2 Demo Ecnomic and Socio Economic Feedback and Self Regulatory
Mechanisms 144
5.3 The Environment Development Dilemma, as Illustrated by the
Issue of the Greenhouse Gas, Carbon Dioxide 152
Chapter VI
Ethical Aspects of Population Oriented Policies 163
6.1 Ethical Antagonisms in Classical Population Theory 163
6.2 The Unity between Demography and Ethics 165
6.3 The Lethal Danger of Demographic Metaphors 174
6.4 Conclusions 182
Chapter VII
Technical Appendix 185
Appendix 1:
1. Population in the base year of 1990 185
2. Fertility 185
3. Mortality and life expectancy 188
Literature 195
8
List of Figures and Tables (Part I)
Figures
Figure 1: Phases of Demographic Transition 47
Figure 2: Regional Differentials in the Net Reproduction Rates of
the 328 Counties ("Kreise") in Western Germany before
Reunification 58
Figure 3: Distribution of the Net Reproduction Rates of the
328 Counties ("Kreise") in Western Germany before
Reunification 59
Figure 4: Dependence of the Intergenerational Transfer Quotient
upon the Net Reproduction Rate 73
Figure 5: World Population Growth since 1750 and Projections for
the 21st Century 86
Figure 6: Age Structure of World Population 1990, 2050 and 2100 87
Figure 7: Decline in the Total Fertility Rate from 1960 65 to
1990 95 by Major Area 88
Figure 8: Increase in Life Expectancy at Birth from 1960 65 to
1990 95 by Major Area 89
Figure 9: Decline in the Total Fertility Rate of the World Population
from 1962 1990 and Scenarios for the Decline to Replace¬
ment Fertility Level (TFR = 2.13) in the Future (Form of
Decline: Hyperbolic) 95
Figure 10: Decline in the Toral Fertility Rate of the World Population
to Replacement Fertility Level (TFR = 2.13, Form of
Decline: Hyperbolic) 96
Figure 11: Decline in the Toral Fertility Rate of the World Population
to Replacement Fertility Level (TFR = 2.13, Form of
Decline: S Shaped) 97
9
Figure 12: Decline in the Toral Fertility Rate of the World Population
to Replacement Fertility Level (TFR = 2.13, Form of
Decline: Linear) 98
Figure 13: Decline in the Toral Fertility Rate of the World Population
to Replacement Fertility Level (TFR = 2.13, Form of
Decline: Hyperbolic and S Shaped) 99
Figure 14: Comparison of Various Assumptions on Fertility Decline
for the World Population 107
Figure 15: 8 Variants of World Population Growth Hyperbolic
Decline in Fertility, Medium Mortality Level 108
Figure 16: 8 Variants of World Population Growth Hyperbolic
Decline in Fertility Below Replacement Level,
Medium Mortality Level 109
Figure 17: 8 Variants of World Population Growth S Shaped
Decline in Fertility, Medium Mortality Level 110
Figure 18: 8 Variants of World Population Growth Linear Decline
in Fertility, Medium Mortality Level 111
Figure 19: Forms of Decline in the Total Fertility Rate to Replace¬
ment Fertility Level and their Impact on World
Population Growth (Various Target Years) 126
Figure 20: Forms of Decline in the Total Fertility Rate to Replace¬
ment Fertility Level and their Impact on World
Population Growth 127
Figure 21a: Components of Population Change, World Population
Projection No. 2060.R.M., Target Year for Replacement
Fertility: 2060 (Form of Decline: Hyperbolic, Mortality
Level: Medium) 128
Figure 21b: Components of Population Change, World Population
Projection No. 2060. R.M., Target Year for Replacement
Fertility: 2060 (Form of Decline: Linear, Mortality
Level: Medium) 129
Figure 22: World Population Levels Resulting from Different Reduct¬
ions in Mortality (Mortality Reductions Between 0 and 10
Percent, Fertility Assumption: Hyperbolic Reduction to
Replacement Fertility Level by the Year 2060) 130
Figure 23: World Population Levels Resulting from Different Reduct¬
ions in Mortality (Mortality Reductions Between 0 and 10
Percent, Fertility Assumption: Linear Reduction to
Replacement Fertility Level by the Year 2070) 131
10
Figure 24: Scenarios of World Population Growth Based on Different
Assumptions Concerning an Increase in Infant and Child
Mortality (Malthus Variants, Hyperbolic Fertility Decline) 132
Figure 25: Scenarios of World Population Growth Based on Different
Assumptions Concerning an Increase in Infant and Child
Mortality (Malthus Variants, Linear Fertility Decline) 133
Figure 26: World Population Projections by Geographic Regions and
Countries 134
Figure 27: Average Annual Absolute Increments to Total Population
of World Regions, 2000 2150 135
Figure 28: The Surplus of Births over Deaths Annual Population
Change in Millions 136
Figure 29: Number of Women of Fertile Age (15 49) for Different
Fertility Paths 137
Figure 30: Diagrammatic Representation of Demo economic Inter¬
active Effects 146
Figure 31: System of Interaction between Demo economic, Demo
Ecological and Socio economic Effects 151
Figure 32: Development of the Population of the Federal
Republic of Germany, Ignoring Inward and Out¬
ward Migratory Flows 153
Figure 33: Chains of Problems with Demographic Causes in
Industrial and Developing Countries 155
Figure 34: Correlation in Principle between Level of Develop¬
ment (Expressed in Terms of Per Capita Income and
of Life Expectancy) and Energy Output, or Energy
Related CO2 Emissions, in or about 1990 157
Figure 35: Correlation between Population Trends and Energy
Related CO2 Emissions in Industrial and Developing
Countries 159
Figure 36: Areas of the Cohort Specific Mortality Rates in
the Lexis Diagram 192
Figure 37: Mortality Rates for Male World Birth Cohorts 193
Figure 38: Mortality Rates for Female World Birth Cohorts 194
11
Tables
Table 1: Factors of High Fertility and Corresponding Policy
Concepts 69
Table 2a: World Population Growth since the Birth of Christ 85
Table 2b: The World Population Level in 2150, Based on Different
Assumptions as to the Rapidity of the Decline in
Fertility (TFR) to the Replacement Level of 2.13
Births per Woman 101
Table 3: Comparison between the World Bank Population Pro¬
jections of 1989/90, 1992/93 and 1994/95 112
Table 4: World Population Growth Assuming a Hyperbolic Decline
in Fertility up to 2060 113
Table 5: The Impact of Delays in the Hyperbolic Decline in Fertility
to the Replacement Level (TFR = 2.13), or to Just Under
Replacement Level (TFR = 2.0 or 2.1) 114
Table 6: The Impact of Delays in the Linear Decline in Fertility
to the Replacement Level (TFR=2.13), or to Just Under
Replacement Level (TFR = 2.0 or 2.1) 115
Table 7: Dependence of the Number of Women in Reproductive
Age (15 49) upon the Fertility Rate (Number of
Women in Millions) 116
Table 8: The Influence of Alternative Mortality Assumptions on
the Outcome of World Population Projections (Target
Year = 2060, Hyperbolic Decline in Fertility) 138
Table 9: The Influence of Alternative Mortality Assumptions on
the Outcome of World Population Projections (Target
Year = 2070, Linear Decline in Fertility) 139
Table 10: World Population Level Assuming a Sudden Increase in
Infant and Child Mortality (Malthusian Variants, Target
Year = 2060, Hyperbolic Decline in Fertility) 140
Table 11: World Population Level Assuming a Sudden Increase in
Infant and Child Mortality (Malthusian Variants, Target
Year = 2060, Linear Decline in Fertility) 141
Table 12: Population by Country, 1995 and 2100 142
12
PART H
Quantitative Projections and Simulations of
World Population Growth for the 21st Century
(Graphs and Tables)
Appendix 2: 207
1. Notation used to donate the population projection variants 207
2. List of variables 208
3. Synopsis of the Variants of Population Projections,
Aggregate Figures for Males and Females in 1990, 2050,
2100, and 2150 209
13 |
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| isbn | 3593354322 0312127715 |
| language | German |
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| series | Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik <Bielefeld>: Forschungsberichte des Instituts für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik (IBS), Universität Bielefeld |
| series2 | Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik <Bielefeld>: Forschungsberichte des Instituts für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik (IBS), Universität Bielefeld |
| spelling | Birg, Herwig 1939- Verfasser (DE-588)108016196 aut World population projections for the 21st century theoretical interpretations and quantitative simulations Herwig Birg Frankfurt Campus-Verl. [u.a.] 1995 498 S. zahlr. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik <Bielefeld>: Forschungsberichte des Instituts für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik (IBS), Universität Bielefeld 21 Bevolkingsontwikkeling gtt Population forecasting Twenty-first century Forecasts Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik <Bielefeld>: Forschungsberichte des Instituts für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik (IBS), Universität Bielefeld 21 (DE-604)BV000013388 21 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006774245&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Birg, Herwig 1939- World population projections for the 21st century theoretical interpretations and quantitative simulations Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik <Bielefeld>: Forschungsberichte des Instituts für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik (IBS), Universität Bielefeld Bevolkingsontwikkeling gtt Population forecasting Twenty-first century Forecasts Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | World population projections for the 21st century theoretical interpretations and quantitative simulations |
| title_auth | World population projections for the 21st century theoretical interpretations and quantitative simulations |
| title_exact_search | World population projections for the 21st century theoretical interpretations and quantitative simulations |
| title_full | World population projections for the 21st century theoretical interpretations and quantitative simulations Herwig Birg |
| title_fullStr | World population projections for the 21st century theoretical interpretations and quantitative simulations Herwig Birg |
| title_full_unstemmed | World population projections for the 21st century theoretical interpretations and quantitative simulations Herwig Birg |
| title_short | World population projections for the 21st century |
| title_sort | world population projections for the 21st century theoretical interpretations and quantitative simulations |
| title_sub | theoretical interpretations and quantitative simulations |
| topic | Bevolkingsontwikkeling gtt Population forecasting Twenty-first century Forecasts Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bevolkingsontwikkeling Population forecasting Twenty-first century Forecasts Bevölkerungsentwicklung Prognose Aufsatzsammlung |
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