Regulatory risk: economic principles and applications to natural gas pipelines and other industries
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Boston u.a.
Kluwer
1993
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Topics in regulatory economics and policy series
14 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIV, 345 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0792393309 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Kolbe, A. L. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Regulatory risk |b economic principles and applications to natural gas pipelines and other industries |c A. Lawrence Kolbe and William B. Tye ; Stewart C. Myers |
| 264 | 1 | |a Boston u.a. |b Kluwer |c 1993 | |
| 300 | |a XIV, 345 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a Topics in regulatory economics and policy series |v 14 | |
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| 650 | 7 | |a Gasindustrie |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Nutsbedrijven |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Overheidsbeleid |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Politik | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Recht | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Gas industry -- Government policy -- United States | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Gas pipelines -- Government policy -- United States | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Gas companies -- Rates -- Government policy -- United States | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Public utilities -- Rates -- Law and legislation -- United States | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Public utilities -- United States -- Rate of return | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risk | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Gaswirtschaft |0 (DE-588)4019429-2 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
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| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-006661294 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804124426616176640 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Table of Contents
Acknowledgements xiii
Copyright Acknowledgements xiv
Chapter 1:
Introduction l
Chapter 2:
The Theory of Regulatory Risk 9
INTRODUCTION 9
Duquesne 11
Hope and the Traditional Economic
Paradigm of Rate Regulation 12
Background to the Duquesne Decision 15
Critical Parts of the Opinion 16
Regulatory Risk in Four Ratemaking Regimes 20
ECONOMIC GROUNDWORK 23
Expected Versus Promised Returns in Competitive
Capital Markets 23
Regulatory Risk 27
Two Classes of Regulatory Risk 37
Regulatory Risk Under the Prudent Investment Rule 39
What Type of Rate of Return on Equity is Typically
Allowed by Regulators? 42
ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF DUQUESNE 43
Measurement Problems for the Allowed Rate of Return
under Asymmetric Regulation 45
Calculation of a Regulatory Risk Premium 46
Interaction Between the Regulatory Risk Premium and
the Probability of Disallowance 52
Moral Hazard 53
Definition of Slight 55
REGULATORY RESPONSES TO DUQUESNE 58
vi Regulatory Risk: Economic Principles and Applications
Chapter 3:
Regulatory Risk: Objections to the Theory 65
INTRODUCTION 65
A RESTATEMENT OF THE BASIC PROBLEM:
ASYMMETRIC RISKS 67 f
CONFUSION OVER THE COST OF CAPITAL AND
EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN 68
ILLUSTRATIONS OF REGULATORY ASYMMETRY 70
THE JUNK BOND ANALOGY ONCE AGAIN 73
A CRITICISM: IS FIGURE 2 4 RIGHT? 76
[
SPECIFIC OBJECTIONS TO OUR ANALYSIS 79
Objections to the Conceptual Framework 79
Objections to Applications of the Concepts 83
Objections to Policy Recommendations
Based on the Analysis 83
f
RESPONSES TO THE OBJECTIONS TO THE CONCEPTUAL
FRAMEWORK 84
Does Accounting for Asymmetric Risk Insulate Investors
from Risks Common to Unregulated Industries? 84
Does Use of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
Methodology Automatically Account for All Risks? 86
Returns on Bonds 88
Returns on Stocks 90
Loose Ends to the DCF Objection 90
DCF Estimates in Practice 91
Changes in the Cost of Capital 97
Does the CAPM Logic Refute the Need to Account for
Regulatory Risk? 98
Does the Recognition of Regulatory Risk Depend on
Imperfect Capital Markets? 101
Opportunities by Regulated Firms for Gains in
Excess of the Cost of Capital 105
Table of Contents vh
RESPONSES TO OBJECTIONS TO APPLICATIONS
OF THE CONCEPTS 106
Does Recent Experience in Regulated Industries
Represent a Retroactive Switch or Just Bad Luck? 106
What if Investors Buy After The Potential
Regulatory Risk is Known? 108
Will Irrational Investors Save the Regulatory System? 110
Regulatory Asymmetry and the Capture Model 110
RESPONSES TO OBJECTIONS TO OUR POLICY
RECOMMENDATIONS 111
Have Changes in the Regulatory System or Other Offsets
Eliminated Regulatory Risk? 111
Difficulties in Implementation 112
CONCLUSIONS 112
Chapter 4:
Sources of Asymmetric Risk in Regulated Industries
CAPITAL CHARGES UNDER REGULATION AND
COMPETITION 115
The Generic Problem 116
Implications for Gas Pipelines 122
OTHER RATE REGULATED INDUSTRIES 124
Electric Utilities 124
Oil Pipelines 126
Telecommunications 128
RISKS THAT DO AND DO NOT AFFECT THE COST OF
CAPITAL 129
ASYMMETRIC RISK AND THE ALLOWED RATE
OF RETURN 133
CONCLUSION 136
viii Regulatory Risk: Economic Principles and Applications
Chapter 5:
Risk of the Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline Industry:
Summary 137
BACKGROUND 139
The Gas Pipeline Industry in the 1970s and 1980s 139
The Gas Pipeline Industry in 1991 141
Looking Ahead to Comparability 143
RISKS FACING NATURAL GAS PIPELINES FOR THE
1990s 146
Unsettled Markets 147
Unsettled Regulation 147
Competition 148
Comparability and Open Access 148
Environmental and Operating Risks 149
Conclusions 149
REGULATION AND COMPETITION 150
Immediate Problems 152
Structural Problems 153
Capital Charges Do Not Match Over Time 154
Asymmetric Risk 154
PROSPECTS 155
POLICY ISSUES 155
Chapter 6:
Recent Trends in the Interstate Gas Pipeline Industry 157
BACKGROUND 157
TWO VIEWS OF PIPELINE RISK 162
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 164
Regulatory Risks in General 165
Pipeline Risks 166
Long run Outlook for the Pipeline Industry 171
Table of Contents ix
THE CHANGING PIPELINE INDUSTRY: FINANCIAL 174
TRENDS
OTHER TRENDS 179
Gas Demand 182
Growth of Carriage 182
Imbalances 184
Concentration of Sales in Peak Days 186
Regulatory Lag 188
Shifts of Fixed Costs 189
Growth in Interruptible Transportation 191
Growth of Discounting 193
CONCLUSION 196
Chapter 7:
Two Views of Pipeline Risk 197
INTRODUCTION 197
Issues Outstanding 200
The Legacy of Federal Wellhead Price Controls 200
The Legacy of the Take or Pay Contracting Problem 200
The Conflict between Cost of Service Regulation
and Market Pricing 201
How Well a System Initiated during Surplus Will
Function under Balanced or Tight Market Conditions 202
The Conflict between Sanctity of Contracts
and Protection of Small Customers 202
Clouds on the Horizon 203
Surprises 204
Total Risk Versus Risk Incidence 204
The Remainder of the Chapter 206
THE VIEW THAT RISK IS HIGH 207
Types of Risks Perceived in the Business World 207
Regulatory Risk 211
Business Risk 212
Operational Risk 212
x Regulatory Risk: Economic Principles and Applications
ARGUMENTS FOR LOW RISK 213
Arguments that an Allowed Rate of Return Equal to the
Cost of Capital Compensates for all Risks 214
The DCF Variant 215
The CAPM Variant 215
Supporting Evidence 217
Arguments that Recent Changes Eliminate or Compensate
for Pipeline Risks 218
Summary 220
THE RISK ANALYSIS TO COME 220
Chapter 8:
Risk Analysis for Natural Gas Pipelines 223
INTRODUCTION 223
IT S OBVIOUS THAT PIPELINES ARE VERY RISKY 226
Future Risks Identified by Pipelines 227
Regulatory/Business Risks 228
Operational Risks 230
Conclusion 233
NO, IT S NOT OBVIOUS AT ALL, AND THOSE
RESPONSES DON T STAND UP 234
Is the Nightmare of the 1980s Now Over? 234
Choice of a Baseline 234
Market Risk Evidence 237
Have Pipelines Been Compensated for the Risks They
Bear? 244
An Allowed Rate of Return Equal to the Cost
of Capital 245
Supporting Evidence: Market to Book Ratios 247
Will Changes in the Pipeline Business and the
Regulatory Rules that Govern It Make Pipelines Low
Risk Companies? 252
The Effect of Changes in Pipeline Rate Design on
Pipeline Risk 254
Table of Contents xi
The Effect of the Shift from Sales to Transportation on
Pipeline Risk 258
Gas Inventory Charges and Risk Allocation 265
CONCLUSIONS ON THE LEVEL OF RISK 272
Regulatory Risks in General 272
Competition and Regulation 272
Asymmetric Risks 274
Pipeline Risks 275
Transportation Risk 275
Merchant Service and Overall Risk 276
Chapter 9:
Two Fundamental Questions 281
WHEN YOU STOP MAKING NEW INVESTMENTS,
THEN WE LL START TO WORRY 282
IS THE CURRENT SYSTEM SUSTAINABLE? 285
IS THE CURRENT SYSTEM DESIRABLE? 286
Inefficient Investment Incentives 286
Inefficient Pricing 289
THE CONSEQUENCES OF INACTION 290
Appendix A:
Risks That Affect the Cost of Capital 293
RISK AND SECURITY PRICES 293
Total Volatility as a Risk Measure 294
Diversification as a Way to Reduce Risk 294
BUSINESS VERSUS FINANCIAL RISK 297
SUMMARY 300
xii Regulatory Risk: Economic Principles and Applications
Appendix B:
Summary of Recent History of the Interstate
Natural Gas Pipeline Industry 301
BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE GAS INDUSTRY 301
RISK ALLOCATION BEFORE ORDER NO. 380 302
THE REALLOCATION OF RISK AFTER THE
ELIMINATION OF MINIMUM BILLS 306
EFFECTS OF OPEN ACCESS TRANSPORTATION ON
RISK ALLOCATION 316
RATE DESIGN AND RISK ALLOCATION 320
GAS INVENTORY CHARGES (GICs) 323
CONCLUSION 325
Bibliography 327
Index 341
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Kolbe, A. L. Tye, William B. Myers, Stewart C. 1940- |
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| author_facet | Kolbe, A. L. Tye, William B. Myers, Stewart C. 1940- |
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| dewey-sort | 3388.5 16 3973 |
| dewey-tens | 380 - Commerce, communications, transportation |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| series2 | Topics in regulatory economics and policy series |
| spelling | Kolbe, A. L. Verfasser aut Regulatory risk economic principles and applications to natural gas pipelines and other industries A. Lawrence Kolbe and William B. Tye ; Stewart C. Myers Boston u.a. Kluwer 1993 XIV, 345 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Topics in regulatory economics and policy series 14 Energiebedrijven gtt Gasindustrie gtt Nutsbedrijven gtt Overheidsbeleid gtt Politik Recht Gas industry -- Government policy -- United States Gas pipelines -- Government policy -- United States Gas companies -- Rates -- Government policy -- United States Public utilities -- Rates -- Law and legislation -- United States Public utilities -- United States -- Rate of return Risk Gaswirtschaft (DE-588)4019429-2 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd rswk-swf USA USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Gaswirtschaft (DE-588)4019429-2 s Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 s DE-604 Tye, William B. Verfasser aut Myers, Stewart C. 1940- Verfasser (DE-588)129325023 aut Topics in regulatory economics and policy series 14 (DE-604)BV002808596 14 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006661294&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Kolbe, A. L. Tye, William B. Myers, Stewart C. 1940- Regulatory risk economic principles and applications to natural gas pipelines and other industries Topics in regulatory economics and policy series Energiebedrijven gtt Gasindustrie gtt Nutsbedrijven gtt Overheidsbeleid gtt Politik Recht Gas industry -- Government policy -- United States Gas pipelines -- Government policy -- United States Gas companies -- Rates -- Government policy -- United States Public utilities -- Rates -- Law and legislation -- United States Public utilities -- United States -- Rate of return Risk Gaswirtschaft (DE-588)4019429-2 gnd Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4019429-2 (DE-588)4066493-4 (DE-588)4078704-7 |
| title | Regulatory risk economic principles and applications to natural gas pipelines and other industries |
| title_auth | Regulatory risk economic principles and applications to natural gas pipelines and other industries |
| title_exact_search | Regulatory risk economic principles and applications to natural gas pipelines and other industries |
| title_full | Regulatory risk economic principles and applications to natural gas pipelines and other industries A. Lawrence Kolbe and William B. Tye ; Stewart C. Myers |
| title_fullStr | Regulatory risk economic principles and applications to natural gas pipelines and other industries A. Lawrence Kolbe and William B. Tye ; Stewart C. Myers |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regulatory risk economic principles and applications to natural gas pipelines and other industries A. Lawrence Kolbe and William B. Tye ; Stewart C. Myers |
| title_short | Regulatory risk |
| title_sort | regulatory risk economic principles and applications to natural gas pipelines and other industries |
| title_sub | economic principles and applications to natural gas pipelines and other industries |
| topic | Energiebedrijven gtt Gasindustrie gtt Nutsbedrijven gtt Overheidsbeleid gtt Politik Recht Gas industry -- Government policy -- United States Gas pipelines -- Government policy -- United States Gas companies -- Rates -- Government policy -- United States Public utilities -- Rates -- Law and legislation -- United States Public utilities -- United States -- Rate of return Risk Gaswirtschaft (DE-588)4019429-2 gnd Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Energiebedrijven Gasindustrie Nutsbedrijven Overheidsbeleid Politik Recht Gas industry -- Government policy -- United States Gas pipelines -- Government policy -- United States Gas companies -- Rates -- Government policy -- United States Public utilities -- Rates -- Law and legislation -- United States Public utilities -- United States -- Rate of return Risk Gaswirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik USA |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006661294&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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