Economic trend analysis for executives and investors:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Westport, Conn. u.a.
Quorum Books
1993
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIII, 221 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0899308228 |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | D D ¦ D D Contents
Tables and Figures vii
Preface xi
1 Introduction 1
2 Business Cycles 9
Continuation of Business Cycles 10
Recessionary or Contracting Period 12
Beginning of Turnaround 13
The Upswing 15
Full Capacity 16
Seeds fora Major Downturn 16
Conclusion 19
3 Banking, Credit, and the Money Supply 21
The Credit Markets 21
Money Supply 24
Loans and Bank Liquidity 26
Credit Supply and Inte rest Rates 27
The Federal Reserve System 31
Federal Reserve Reaction to Business Cycle 37
4 Primary Economic Factors:
Definitions and Benchmarks 39
Gross Domestic Product 41
The Primary Factors 44
5 Primary Economic Factors: Relationships 69
Relationship Analysis 70
wi CONTENTS
6 Primary Economic Factors: The Matrix 87
Initial Analytical Approach 88
Analytical Techniques 90
Matrix Application by Executives and Investors 98
7 Other Economic Factors 101
Other Economic Factors 102
Comparing Economic Factors 115
8 The Dilemma of Economic Policy 117
The Pricing System 118
The Nature of Industrial Economic Activity 119
Price Stability 120
The Unintended Consequences of Price Stability 122
The Dilemma 125
The Shift to Influencing Output 126
Current Emphasis on Output
and Resulting Price Instability 128
The New Emphasis on Productivity 129
Anticipating Changes in
the Consumer Price Index 132
9 Review of Historical Data 135
Purpose of Historical Analysis 136
Overview, 1978 1991 137
Review by Year 143
10 Getting Started 173
Sources of Primary Factors 173
Updating the Historical Matrix 176
Matrix Maintenance 176
Appendix: Historical Matrixes,
1978 1991 and Supporting Data 181
Bibliography 205
Index 211
D D ¦ D D Tables and Figures
TABLES
1.1 Industrial Production Index,
January 1990 February 1992 2
2.1 Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions,
1945 1990 10
3.1 Market Share Changes for Financial
Intermediaries, 1950 1990 22
3.2 Organized Credit Market
Outstanding Debt, 1991 28
4.1 Format for the Matrix System 40
4.2 Real Gross Domestic Product, 1989 1991 42
4.3 Share of Gross Domestic Product, 1989 1991 44
4.4 Components of Money Supply Aggregates,
1989 1991 52
5.1 Selected Interest Rates, 1978 1979 76
6.1 Comparison of Actual Results to Forecast,
December 1991 96
6.2 Model of Primary Factors,
Assuming Full Industrial Output 97
9.1 Growth Rates in Real GDP,
Selected Countries and Regions, 1976 1991 138
9.2 Comparison of Federal Debt to Nominal GDP,
1950 1990 141
A.1 A.14 Historical Matrix, 1978 1991 184
vili TABLES AND FIGURES
A. 15 A. 18 Supporting Data for Historical Matrix 198
A. 19 Federal Reserve Discount Rates
(New York Fed), 1978 1991 202
A.20 Quarterly Rate of Change,
Annualized, Gross Domestic Product,
1978 1991 203
FIGURES
1.1 Industrial Production Index,
January 1990 February 1992 2
1.2 Yield on U.S. Bonds and British Consols,
1798 1809 5
3.1 Comparison of Growth in M3 to Nonfinancial
Debt, 1960 1990 29
4.1 Components of Real Gross Domestic Product,
1989 1991 43
4.2 Components of Monetary Aggregate M2,1991 53
4.3 Rate of Change in the CPI, 1978 1991 55
4.4 Federal Reserve Discount Rate, 1989 1991 57
4.5 Trade Weighted Value of Dollar
(Federal Reserve), 1967 1991 64
4.6 Trade Weighted Value of Dollar
(Federal Reserve), 1989 1991 65
5.1 Comparison of Unemployment Rate with Change
in Industrial Production Index, 1978 1979 71
5.2 Rate of Change in Real and Nominal M2,
1978 1979 73
5.3 Rate of Change in Real M2 and Industrial
Production Index, 1989 1991 74
5.4 Selected Interest Rates, 1978 1979 77
5.5 Rate of Change in Real M2 and Bank Loan and
Investment Activity, 1990 1991 81
5.6 Rate of Change in Commercial Bank Lending and
Investments, 1990 1991 84
5.7 Comparison of Yield on Ten Year Government
Bond to Change in the CPI, 1978 1991 86
7.1 Annual Housing Starts (Thousands of Units),
1989 1991 103
7.2 Monthly Retail Sales (Billions of Dollars),
1989 1991 104
7.3 Ratio of Manufacturing and Trade Inventory
to Sales, 1989 1991 105
TABLES AND FIGURES ix
7.4 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (Billions of
Dollars), 1989 1991 109
7.5 Monthly Rate of Unemployment and
Quarterly Change in GDP, 1989 1991 114
7.6 Rate of Change in Real M2, 1989 1991 116
8.1 Annual Rate of Change in Output per Hour of All
Persons in Business Sector, 1960 1990 131
9.1 Growth Rates in GDP for Selected Areas,
1976 1991 139
9.2 Comparison of Federal Debt to Nominal GDP,
1950 1990 142
9.3 Selected Interest Rates, 1990 1991 168
9.4 Quarterly Rate of Change in Gross Domestic I
Product, 1988 1991 171 |
|
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:45:16Z |
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| isbn | 0899308228 |
| language | English |
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| physical | XIII, 221 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1993 |
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| spelling | Schaefer, Howard G. Verfasser aut Economic trend analysis for executives and investors Howard G. Schaefer 1. publ. Westport, Conn. u.a. Quorum Books 1993 XIII, 221 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Wirtschaftspolitik Business cycles United States Economic forecasting United States Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf USA United States Economic policy USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006652075&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Schaefer, Howard G. Economic trend analysis for executives and investors Wirtschaftspolitik Business cycles United States Economic forecasting United States Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4078704-7 |
| title | Economic trend analysis for executives and investors |
| title_auth | Economic trend analysis for executives and investors |
| title_exact_search | Economic trend analysis for executives and investors |
| title_full | Economic trend analysis for executives and investors Howard G. Schaefer |
| title_fullStr | Economic trend analysis for executives and investors Howard G. Schaefer |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic trend analysis for executives and investors Howard G. Schaefer |
| title_short | Economic trend analysis for executives and investors |
| title_sort | economic trend analysis for executives and investors |
| topic | Wirtschaftspolitik Business cycles United States Economic forecasting United States Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaftspolitik Business cycles United States Economic forecasting United States Prognose Wirtschaft USA United States Economic policy |
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