Outlook for Japanese and German future technology: comparing technology forecast surveys
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | German |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Heidelberg
Physica-Verl.
1994
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Technology, innovation, and policy
1 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVI, 238 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 3790808008 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Cuhls, Kerstin |d 1966- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)123118891 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Outlook for Japanese and German future technology |b comparing technology forecast surveys |c Kerstin Cuhls ; Terutaka Kuwahara |
| 264 | 1 | |a Heidelberg |b Physica-Verl. |c 1994 | |
| 300 | |a XVI, 238 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
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| 490 | 1 | |a Technology, innovation, and policy |v 1 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Prognoses |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Technologiebeleid |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Delphi method | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Technological forecasting |z Germany | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Technological forecasting |z Japan | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Technology and state |z Germany | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Technology and state |z Japan | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804124175807283200 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Kerstin Cuhls • Temtaka Kuwahara
Outlook
for Japanese and German
Future Technology
Comparing Technology Forecast Surveys
With 68 Figures
Physica-Verlag
A Springer-Verlag Company
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword by BMFT
Foreword by STA
Preface by NISTEP
Preface by ISI
1 General Method ^ 1
1 1 Review of Western Literature on the Delphi Approach 1
1 2 Overview of the Previous Delphi Experience in Japan 11
1 3 Basic Statistics 15
1 4 Special Aspects of Transposing the Japanese Delphi
Approach to Another Country 20
1 5 Outline of Survey Parameters and Data Processing for the
Comparison 31
151 Degree of Expertise 31
152 Degree of Importance 35
153 Time of Realization 35
154 Degree of Certainty 37
155 Necessity of International Joint Development 38
156 R amp;D Level 39
157 Constraints 40
2 Basic Macro Comparison — 41
2 1 Expert Knowledge 42
2 2 Importance 46
2 3 Time of Realization 52
2 4 Foresight Precision 58
XIV
2 5 International Co-operation 62
2 6 R amp;D Level 66
261 The Japanese View 66
262 The German View 70
2 7 Constraints 73
271 Technical Constraints 75
272 Institutional Constraints 77
273 Cultural Constraints 80
274 Cost Constraints 83
275 Constraints in Funding 86
276 Constraints in Fostering or Securing Human Resources 88
277 Constraints in the R amp;D System 91
278 Summary 93
2 8 Conclusions on the Macro Level 93
3 Cross Comparisons on the Macro Level 98
3 1 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Importance 98
3 2 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Forecasted Time of
Realization 100
3 3 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Constraints on
Realization 101
3 4 Comparison of the Importance and the Time of Realization 103
3 5 Comparison of the Time of Realization and the Time
Variance 104
3 6 Comparing Certainty with Time of Realization Variance 107
3 7 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation
with the Importance I l l
3 8 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation
and die Estimated Time of Realization 112
3 9 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation
and the Present R amp;D Level 113
XV
3 10 Correlation between Constraints and the Necessity of
International Co-operation 116
3 11 Correlation of the R amp;D Level and the Importance of the
Topics 117
3 12 Time of Realization and R amp;D Level 122
3 13 Correlation between the R amp;D Level and the Various
Constraints on the Realization 123
3 14 Comparison of the Importance and the Various Constraints
on the Realization 126
3 14 1 Technical Constraints 126
3 14 2 Cultural Constraints 127
3 14 3 Constraints in Costs 129
3 14 4 Constraints in Funding 131
3 14 5 Constraints in Fostering or Securing Human Resources 132
3 14 6 Constraints in the R amp;D System 134
3 15 Time of Realization in Comparison with the Constraints on
Realization 135
3 15 1 Technical Constraints 135
3 15 2 Constraints in Funding 136
3 15 3 Constraints in Fostering or Securing Human Resources 138
3 15 4 Constraints in the R amp;D System 139
3 16 Comparative Conclusions for the Countries 140
Cross Comparisons of Technological Topics on the Micro Level 144
4 1 Comparing some Important Innovation Scenarios 144
411 Nanometer-size Structures 145
412 Cancer 148
413 Alzheimer s Disease 150
414 Renewable Sources of Energy 151
4 2 Estimation of the Importance on the Micro Level 154
421 Ranking by Importance in Japan and Germany 154
422 Ranking by the Difference in the Importance 158
XVI
4 3 Forecast of the Realization Times on the Micro Level 163
431 Near Future 163
432 Distant Future 172
433 Large Differences in the Realization Time 178
4 4 International Co-operation 183
441 Necessity for International Co-operation on the Micro Level 184
442 Ranking of the Major Differences in International Co-
operation 190
4 5 Time Variance of the Forecast Compared with Certainty 193
4 6 Most Efficient Innovation Projects 200
461 Materials and Processing 203
462 Information and Electronics 205
463 Life Sciences 206
464 Particles 207
465 Marine Science and Earth Science 208
466 Mineral and Water Resources 210
467 Energy 211
468 Environment 213
469 Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries 214
4 6 10 Production 216
4 6 11 Urbanization and Construction 217
4 6 12 Communications 219
4 6 13 Space 221
4 6 14 Transportation 222
4 6 15 Medical Care and Health 223
4 6 16 Culture and Lifestyles 225
4 6 17 Conclusions from the Most Efficient Innovation Projects 226
5 Conclusions 227
Literature 236
Appendix 238
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften Wissenschaftskunde |
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| geographic_facet | Deutschland Japan |
| id | DE-604.BV009821243 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:41:30Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 3790808008 |
| language | German |
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| physical | XVI, 238 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1994 |
| publishDateSearch | 1994 |
| publishDateSort | 1994 |
| publisher | Physica-Verl. |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Technology, innovation, and policy |
| series2 | Technology, innovation, and policy |
| spelling | Cuhls, Kerstin 1966- Verfasser (DE-588)123118891 aut Outlook for Japanese and German future technology comparing technology forecast surveys Kerstin Cuhls ; Terutaka Kuwahara Heidelberg Physica-Verl. 1994 XVI, 238 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Technology, innovation, and policy 1 Prognoses gtt Technologiebeleid gtt Delphi method Technological forecasting Germany Technological forecasting Japan Technology and state Germany Technology and state Japan Forschung und Entwicklung (DE-588)4017897-3 gnd rswk-swf Delphi-Technik (DE-588)4330954-9 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 gnd rswk-swf Japan (DE-588)4028495-5 gnd rswk-swf Japan (DE-588)4028495-5 g Forschung und Entwicklung (DE-588)4017897-3 s Delphi-Technik (DE-588)4330954-9 s Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 g DE-604 Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Kuwahara, Terutaka Verfasser aut Technology, innovation, and policy 1 (DE-604)BV023545326 1 HEBIS Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006502237&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Cuhls, Kerstin 1966- Kuwahara, Terutaka Outlook for Japanese and German future technology comparing technology forecast surveys Technology, innovation, and policy Prognoses gtt Technologiebeleid gtt Delphi method Technological forecasting Germany Technological forecasting Japan Technology and state Germany Technology and state Japan Forschung und Entwicklung (DE-588)4017897-3 gnd Delphi-Technik (DE-588)4330954-9 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4017897-3 (DE-588)4330954-9 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4059252-2 (DE-588)4011882-4 (DE-588)4028495-5 |
| title | Outlook for Japanese and German future technology comparing technology forecast surveys |
| title_auth | Outlook for Japanese and German future technology comparing technology forecast surveys |
| title_exact_search | Outlook for Japanese and German future technology comparing technology forecast surveys |
| title_full | Outlook for Japanese and German future technology comparing technology forecast surveys Kerstin Cuhls ; Terutaka Kuwahara |
| title_fullStr | Outlook for Japanese and German future technology comparing technology forecast surveys Kerstin Cuhls ; Terutaka Kuwahara |
| title_full_unstemmed | Outlook for Japanese and German future technology comparing technology forecast surveys Kerstin Cuhls ; Terutaka Kuwahara |
| title_short | Outlook for Japanese and German future technology |
| title_sort | outlook for japanese and german future technology comparing technology forecast surveys |
| title_sub | comparing technology forecast surveys |
| topic | Prognoses gtt Technologiebeleid gtt Delphi method Technological forecasting Germany Technological forecasting Japan Technology and state Germany Technology and state Japan Forschung und Entwicklung (DE-588)4017897-3 gnd Delphi-Technik (DE-588)4330954-9 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Prognoses Technologiebeleid Delphi method Technological forecasting Germany Technological forecasting Japan Technology and state Germany Technology and state Japan Forschung und Entwicklung Delphi-Technik Prognose Technischer Fortschritt Deutschland Japan |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006502237&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV023545326 |
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