The evidential foundations of probabilistic reasoning:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York u.a.
Wiley
1994
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Wiley series in systems engineering
A Wiley-Interscience publication |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVIII, 545 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 047157936X |
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| adam_text | IMAGE 1
THE EVIDENTIAL
FOUNDATIONS OF PROBABILISTIC REASONING
DAVID A. SCHUM GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY FAIRFAX, VIRGINIA
A WILEY-INTERSCIENCE PUBLICATION JOHN WILEY &SONS, INC. NEW YORK /
CHICHESTER / BRISBANE / TORONTO / SINGAPORE
IMAGE 2
CONTENTS
PREFACE XIII
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS XVII
1. A DISCOURSE ON EVIDENCE 1
1.1 FINDING COMMON GROUND J
1.2 IS A GENERAL DISCOURSE ON EVIDENCE NECESSARY? 4
1.3 CAN THERE BE A SCIENCE OF EVIDENCE? 6
1.4 A LOOK AHEAD 8
2. THE STUDY OF EVIDENCE 11
2.1 EVIDENCE, OBSERVATIONS, AND ABSTRACTIONS 11
2.1.1 WHAT IS EVIDENCE? 12
2.1.2 EVIDENCE, FACTS, AND ABSTRACTIONS 16
2.1.3 EVIDENCE, DATA, AND INFORMATION 19
2.1.4 EVIDENCE AND KNOWLEDGE 20
2.2 RHETORIC, LOGIC AND PHILOSOPHY 22
2.2.1 PERSUASIVE ARGUMENTS AND VALID ARGUMENTS 22
2.2.2 EVIDENCE AND ENUMERATIVE INDUCTION 25
2.2.3 EVIDENCE AND ELIMINATIVE INDUCTION 26
2.2.4 ARGUMENTS ABOUT INDUCTION 30
2.2.5 EVIDENCE AND CHAINS OF REASONING 33
2.3 EVIDENCE, PROBABILITY, AND STATISTICS 34
2.3.1 INTERPRETATIONS OF PROBABILITY 35
2.3.2 PROBABILITY AND EVIDENCE 41
IMAGE 3
VIII CONTENTS
2.3.3 FREQUENTISTIC AND SINGULAR EVIDENCE 46
2.3.4 PROBABILISTIC RULES FOR INDUCTION 47
2.3.5 PROBABILITY AND RATIONAL INFERENCE 52
2.4 EVIDENCE IN JURISPRUDENCE: BEATING AND BOULTING THE TRUTH 54
2.4.1 JURIES AND THE ADVERSARIAL PROCESS 55
2.4.2 OUR COURTS AS EVIDENTIAL CLEARINGHOUSES 58
2.4.3 BENTHAM AND WIGMORE 59
2.4.4 THE NEW EVIDENCE SCHOLARSHIP : HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF 60
2.5 THEORIES OF EVIDENCE: ARGUMENT STRUCTURE AND EVIDENTIAL FORCE 62
2.6 DISCOVERING EVIDENCE 64
3. STRUCTURAI ISSUES I: STUDYING THE PROPERTIES OF EVIDENCE 66
3.1 RELEVANCE AND ARGUMENT 67
3.1.1 DEFINING RELEVANCE 68
3.1.2 RELEVANCE AND STANDPOINT 71
3.1.3 ESTABLISHING THE RELEVANCE OF EVIDENCE: AN EXAMPLE 75 3.1.4
ARGUMENT INGREDIENTS, METHODS, AND METAPHORS 77
3.1.5 MASSES OF EVIDENCE AND MULTIPLE ARGUMENTS 83
3.1.6 DEFENDING THE RELEVANCE OF EVIDENCE: AN EXERCISE 86
3.2 THE FOUNDATIONS OF ARGUMENT 92
3.2.1 QUESTIONS ABOUT EVIDENCE AND ITS SOURCES 93
3.2.2 THE CREDIBILITY OF TANGIBLE EVIDENCE: ITS AUTHENTICITY AND
ACCURACY 98
3.2.3 TESTIMONY AND ATTRIBUTES OF THE CREDIBILITY OF HUMAN SOURCES 100
3.2.4 CREDIBILITY AND COMPETENCE 108
3.3 RELEVANCE, CREDIBILITY, AND ANCILLARY EVIDENCE 109
3.3.1 GENERALIZATIONS ABOUT RELEVANCE AND CREDIBILITY 109
3.3.2 FORMS OF ANCILLARY EVIDENCE 112
3.3.3 ON THE INDIRECT RELEVANCE OF ANCILLARY EVIDENCE 112
3.4 COMMON FORMS OF EVIDENCE 114
3.5 RECURRENT COMBINATIONS OF EVIDENCE 120
3.5.1 DISSONANT EVIDENCE: CONTRADICTION AND CONFLICT 121
3.5.2 HARMONIOUS EVIDENCE: CORROBORATION AND CONVERGENCE 124
3.5.3 TWO SPECIES OF EVIDENTIAL REDUNDANCY 126
4. STRUCTURAI ISSUES I I: INFERENCES BASED UPON A MASS OF EVIDENCE 131
4.1 MIXTURES OF EVIDENTIAL FORMS, COMBINATIONS, AND SUBTLETIES 132
4.2 STRUCTURING AND STANDPOINT 135
IMAGE 4
CONTENTS IX
4.2.1 CYCLES OF DISCOVERY, INFERENCE, AND CHOICE 135
4.2.2 RECURRENT AND NONRECURRENT INFERENCES 137
4.2.3 DIVIDE AND CONQUER: LEVELS OF INFERENCE DECOMPOSITION 138
4.2.4 A STANDPOINT FOR THE STUDY OF EVIDENCE 139
4.3 RELEVANCE AND CAUSALITY 140
4.3.1 INTERPRETATIONS OF CAUSALITY 143
4.3.2 CAUSALITY, PROBABILITY, AND THE RELEVANCE OF EVIDENCE 150 4.3.3
RELEVANCE, CAUSALITY, AND THE STRUCTURING OF COMPLEX INFERENCES 155
4.4 INFERENCE NETWORKS I: WIGMORE AND HIS CONTEMPORARY ADVOCATES 156
4.4.1 BASIC INFERENTIAL USES OF EVIDENCE 157
4.4.2 ANALYSIS AND SYNTHESIS: WIGMORE S KEY LISTS AND EVIDENCE CHARTS
160
4.4.3 A MODERN FACE ON WIGMORE S EVIDENCECHARTING METHODS 165
4.5 INFERENCE NETWORKS II: MODERN CONCEPTIONS 169
4.5.1 GRAPHS AND INFERENCE NETWORKS 169
4.5.2 INFERENCE NETWORKS, CAUSALITY, AND DEPENDENCE 173
4.5.3 EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR COMPLEX INFERENCE 179
4.5.4 CHARTING ANCILLARY EVIDENCE: NETWORKS WITHIN NETWORKS? 187
4.5.5 ON THE MUTATION OF HYPOTHESES 192
4.6 OTHER STRUCTURES: NARRATIVES, STORIES, AND SCENARIOS 195
4.6.1 SCENARIOS AND THE DISCOVERY OF EVIDENCE 196
4.6.2 STRUCTURING AND EXPLANATIONS 197
5. ON THE INFERENTIAL FORCE OF EVIDENCE 200
5.1 THE FORCE OF EVIDENCE: HISTORICAL COMMENTS 201
5.2 GRADING THE FORCE OF EVIDENCE 206
5.2.1 WHAT DETERMINES THE FORCE OF EVIDENCE? 207
5.2.2 BACKING ASSESSMENTS OF THE INFERENTIAL FORCE OF EVIDENCE 209
5.2.3 MEASUREMENT SCALE ISSUES AND ASSUMPTIONS 210
5.3 PASCALIAN GRADATIONS OF THE FORCE OF EVIDENCE 213
5.3.1 POSTERIOR AND PRIOR PROBABILITY MEASURES 215
5.3.2 LIKELIHOOD AND LIKELIHOOD RATIO MEASURES 218
5.3.3 EXPANDED FORMS OF LIKELIHOODS AND THEIR RATIOS 220
5.4 BELIEF FUNCTIONS: GRADING EVIDENTIAL SUPPORT 222
5.4.1 PARTIAL BELIEFS AND THEIR JUDGMENTAL FOUNDATIONS 223
5.4.2 ON THE WEIGHT AND THE SUPPORT OF EVIDENCE 225
IMAGE 5
X CONTENTS
5.4.3 JUSTIFYING PROBABILISTIC JUDGMENTS 232
5.4.4 BELIEF FUNCTIONS AND EVIDENTIAL SUPPORT 235
5.4.5 DEMPSTER S RULE FOR COMBINING PARTIAL BELIEFS 238
5.5 THE WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE IN ELIMINATIVE AND VARIATIVE INFERENCE 243
5.5.1 RELEVANT VARIABLES IN ELIMINATIVE INDUCTION 245
5.5.2 BACONIAN PROBABILITY AND THE WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE 251
5.5.3 BACONIAN PROBABILITY AND CHAINS OF REASONING 257
5.5.4 APPLICATIONS OF BACONIAN PROBABILITY 260
5.6 EVIDENCE, INFERENCE, AND IMPRECISION 261
5.6.1 IMPRECISION AND THE INGREDIENTS OF INDUCTIVE REASONING 263
5.6.2 FUZZY SETS AND FUZZY LOGIC 265
5.6.3 THE FUZZY FORCE OF FUZZY EVIDENCE 266
6. THE ANALYSIS OF EVIDENTIAL PROPERTIES AND SUBTLETIES 270
6.1 COMBINING STRUCTURAL AND PROBABILISTIC CONCEPTS 270
6.1.1 PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF EVIDENTIAL FORMS AND COMBINATIONS 271
6.1.2 CAPTURING EVIDENTIAL SUBTLETIES: THE WARP AND THE WEFT OF
ARGUMENTS 274
6.2 SOME INTERESTING EVIDENTIAL PROPERTIES AND SUBTLETIES 278
6.2.1 EVIDENCE IN ISOLATION 278
6.2.2 EVIDENCE IN COMBINATION 282
6.3 ANALYTIC OBJECTIVES AND METHODS 284
6.3.1 ASKING QUESTIONS ABOUT EVIDENCE 285
6.3.2 METHODS OF ANALYSIS 287
6.3.3 THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OF EVIDENCE 289
7. ANALYSES OF ISOLATED ITEMS OF EVIDENCE 290
7.1 EVIDENCE AND SINGLY CONNECTED CHAINS OF REASONING 290
7.1.1 REASONING CHAIN LENGTH AND INFERENTIAL DRAG 292
7.1.2 WEAK LINKS IN A CHAIN OF REASONING 301
7.1.3 RARE EVENTS IN A CHAIN OF REASONING 306
7.1.4 TRANSITIVITY IN SINGLY CONNECTED CHAINS OF REASONING 308 7.2
CHAINS OF REASONING AND CONDITIONAL NONINDEPENDENCE 309
7.2.1 REMOVING BOUNDS ON THE INFERENTIAL FORCE OF EVIDENCE 309
7.2.2 TRANSITIVITY REVISITED 312
7.3 CREDIBILITY AND THE FORCE OF EVIDENCE 313
7.3.1 TANGIBLE EVIDENCE, CREDIBILITY, AND THE THEORY OF SIGNAL DETECTION
314
IMAGE 6
CONTENTS XI
7.3.2 DECOMPOSING THE CREDIBILITY OF TESTIMONIAL EVIDENCE
FROM HUMAN SOURCES 324
7.3.3 TESTIMONIAL EVIDENCE, TANGIBLE EVIDENCE, AND TSD OBSERVERS 333
7.3.4 THE FORCE OF TESTIMONY IN NON-SINGLY CONNECTED CHAINS OF REASONING
337
7.3.5 BACONIAN CREDIBILITY ASSESSMENT 342
7.4 SECONDHAND EVIDENCE 344
7.5 EQUIVOCAL TESTIMONY 350
7.5.1 PROBABILISTIC EQUIVOCATION, JEFFREY S RULE OF CONDITIONING, AND
DODSON S MBT 351
7.5.2 COMPLETE EQUIVOCATION 353
7.6 MISSING EVIDENCE 357
7.6.1 THE NONPRODUCTION OF TANGIBLE EVIDENCE 357
7.6.2 SILENCE AS EVIDENCE 358
7.6.3 ON THE SPOLIATION AND SUPPRESSION OF EVIDENCE 361
7.7 ON THE DISCOVERY AND FORCE OF NEGATIVE EVIDENCE 361
7.8 A RETURN TO BERNOULLI S EVIDENTIAL DISTINCTIONS 364
8. ANALYSES OF RECURRENT COMBINATIONS OF EVIDENCE 366
8.1 ON THE FORCE OF DISSONANT EVIDENCE 367
8.1.1 CONTRADICTORY EVIDENCE 368
8.1.2 CONFLICTING EVIDENCE 382
8.2 ON THE FORCE OF HARMONIOUS EVIDENCE 390
8.2.1 CORROBORATIVE EVIDENCE 391
8.2.2 CONVERGENT AND POSSIBLY SYNERGISTIC EVIDENCE 401
8.3 PATTERNS OF EVIDENTIAL HARMONY AND DISSONANCE 409
8.3.1 CORROBORATION AND CONTRADICTION: SHALL WE COUNT HEADS? 409
8.3.2 CONTRADICTION EMBEDDED IN CONFLICT 412
8.4 THE TWO FACES ON EVIDENTIAL REDUNDANCE 417
8.4.1 REDUNDANCE IN DISCOURSE AND IN COMMUNICATION 417
8.4.2 REDUNDANCE AND EVIDENCE 419
8.4.3 THE FORCE OF CORROBORATIVELY REDUNDANT EVIDENCE 424 8.4.4 THE
FORCE OF CUMULATIVELY REDUNDANT EVIDENCE 433
8.5 OTHER RECURRENT COMBINATIONS OF EVIDENCE 444
8.5.1 CONTRADICTIONS, ENTAILMENTS, AND ALIBIS 444
8.5.2 THE INFERENTIAL FORCE OF OPINION EVIDENCE 447
9. DISCOVERY AND THE GENERATION OF EVIDENCE 450
9.1 DISCOVERY IN VARIOUS CONTEXTS 452
9.1.1 DISCOVERY AND JUSTIFICATION 452
IMAGE 7
XII
CONTENTS
9.1.2 MORE ON CYCLES OF DISCOVERY, PROOF, AND CHOICE 455
9.1.3 THE TEMPORAL ELEMENTS OF DISCOVERY 457
9.1.4 DISCOVERY, STANDPOINT, AND FRAMES OF DISCERNMENT 459 9.2 DISCOVERY
AND IMAGINATIVE REASONING 460
9.2.1 PEIRCE AND OTHERS ON ABDUCTION, RETRODUCTION, AND HYPOTHESIS 460
9.2.2 ABDUCTION, RETRODUCTION, INFERENCE NETWORKS, AND THE GENERATION OF
NEW EVIDENCE 465
9.2.3 SEARCH, INQUIRY, AND HEURISTICS 466
9.2.4 ARGUMENT STRUCTURING, PROBABILITIES, AND HEURISTICS 471 9.2.5
DISCOVERY AND CHAOS 473
9.3 EVIDENCE, SIGNS, AND SEMIOTICS 476
9.3.1 CONAN DOYLE, BELL, HOLMES, AND PEIRCE 477
9.3.2 UMBERTO ECO, WILLIAM OF BASKERVILLE, AND PEIRCE S ABDUCTION 481
9.3.3 SEMIOTICS AND THE CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE 484
9.3.4 PEIRCE, ECO, AND THE COLLIGATION OF IDEAS 488
9.4 STRATEGIES FOR MARSHALING THOUGHT AND EVIDENCE DURING DISCOVERY 489
9.4.1 DISCOVERY AND ITS MANY EVIDENCE MARSHALING REQUIREMENTS 491
9.4.2 A NETWORK OF EVIDENCE MARSHALING OPERATIONS FOR DISCOVERY 494
10. END OF DISCOURSE 505
10.1 EVIDENCE, ARGUMENT STRUCTURES, AND PROBABILITIES 508
10.2 DISCOVERING AND MARSHALING EVIDENCE 512
10.3 FINAL WORDS 514
REFERENCES 515
NAME INDEX 531
SUBJECT INDEX 537
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Schum, David A. |
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| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)28889640 (DE-599)BVBBV009800035 |
| dewey-full | 121/.65 |
| dewey-hundreds | 100 - Philosophy & psychology |
| dewey-ones | 121 - Epistemology (Theory of knowledge) |
| dewey-raw | 121/.65 |
| dewey-search | 121/.65 |
| dewey-sort | 3121 265 |
| dewey-tens | 120 - Epistemology, causation, humankind |
| discipline | Informatik Psychologie Mathematik Philosophie |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV009800035 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:41:04Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 047157936X |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-006484169 |
| oclc_num | 28889640 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-739 DE-91G DE-BY-TUM DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-739 DE-91G DE-BY-TUM DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-188 |
| physical | XVIII, 545 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1994 |
| publishDateSearch | 1994 |
| publishDateSort | 1994 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Wiley series in systems engineering A Wiley-Interscience publication |
| spelling | Schum, David A. Verfasser aut The evidential foundations of probabilistic reasoning David A. Schum New York u.a. Wiley 1994 XVIII, 545 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Wiley series in systems engineering A Wiley-Interscience publication Argumentatieleer gtt Bewijs (wetenschap) gtt Cybernétique ram Evidentie gtt Inductief-deductief redeneren gtt Inférence (Logique) Probabilités Évidence Evidence Inference Probabilities Evidenz (DE-588)4129356-3 gnd rswk-swf Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie (DE-588)4079013-7 gnd rswk-swf Inferenz Künstliche Intelligenz (DE-588)4333533-0 gnd rswk-swf Denken (DE-588)4011450-8 gnd rswk-swf Schlussfolgern (DE-588)4251178-1 gnd rswk-swf Probabilismus Philosophie (DE-588)4175765-8 gnd rswk-swf Denken (DE-588)4011450-8 s Schlussfolgern (DE-588)4251178-1 s Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie (DE-588)4079013-7 s DE-604 Evidenz (DE-588)4129356-3 s DE-188 Probabilismus Philosophie (DE-588)4175765-8 s Inferenz Künstliche Intelligenz (DE-588)4333533-0 s GBV Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006484169&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Schum, David A. The evidential foundations of probabilistic reasoning Argumentatieleer gtt Bewijs (wetenschap) gtt Cybernétique ram Evidentie gtt Inductief-deductief redeneren gtt Inférence (Logique) Probabilités Évidence Evidence Inference Probabilities Evidenz (DE-588)4129356-3 gnd Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie (DE-588)4079013-7 gnd Inferenz Künstliche Intelligenz (DE-588)4333533-0 gnd Denken (DE-588)4011450-8 gnd Schlussfolgern (DE-588)4251178-1 gnd Probabilismus Philosophie (DE-588)4175765-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4129356-3 (DE-588)4079013-7 (DE-588)4333533-0 (DE-588)4011450-8 (DE-588)4251178-1 (DE-588)4175765-8 |
| title | The evidential foundations of probabilistic reasoning |
| title_auth | The evidential foundations of probabilistic reasoning |
| title_exact_search | The evidential foundations of probabilistic reasoning |
| title_full | The evidential foundations of probabilistic reasoning David A. Schum |
| title_fullStr | The evidential foundations of probabilistic reasoning David A. Schum |
| title_full_unstemmed | The evidential foundations of probabilistic reasoning David A. Schum |
| title_short | The evidential foundations of probabilistic reasoning |
| title_sort | the evidential foundations of probabilistic reasoning |
| topic | Argumentatieleer gtt Bewijs (wetenschap) gtt Cybernétique ram Evidentie gtt Inductief-deductief redeneren gtt Inférence (Logique) Probabilités Évidence Evidence Inference Probabilities Evidenz (DE-588)4129356-3 gnd Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie (DE-588)4079013-7 gnd Inferenz Künstliche Intelligenz (DE-588)4333533-0 gnd Denken (DE-588)4011450-8 gnd Schlussfolgern (DE-588)4251178-1 gnd Probabilismus Philosophie (DE-588)4175765-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Argumentatieleer Bewijs (wetenschap) Cybernétique Evidentie Inductief-deductief redeneren Inférence (Logique) Probabilités Évidence Evidence Inference Probabilities Evidenz Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie Inferenz Künstliche Intelligenz Denken Schlussfolgern Probabilismus Philosophie |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006484169&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT schumdavida theevidentialfoundationsofprobabilisticreasoning |